23七月2023煙草會議中歐講稿(英文)UnderstandingRivalry:

TheHeartoftheCompetitiveEquation7/23/20232WilliamA.FischerTheNatureofEconomicInquiry ?thefocusofeconomics[fromaWestern,market-orientedperspective]haslargelybeenonhowwellaneconomyallocatesresources,givenpreferencesandtechnologies.RichardR.Nelsonespeciallywherefirmsaretheprincipalallocatingagents7/23/20233WilliamA.FischerTheNatureofthePlayers ?economiststendtoseefirmsasplayersinamulti-actoreconomicgame...RichardR.Nelson7/23/20234WilliamA.FischerTheNatureofRivalry Theessenceofrivalryisastrivingforpotentiallyincompatiblepositions?FredericM.Scherer ?thejockeyingforsharebyfirmswithinamarket.Besanko,Dranove&Shanley7/23/20235WilliamA.FischerWhoarethese揻irms?andwhataretheirroles?

Somefundamentalassumptions搮anentityrunbyagentsofthecapital-owningprincipalswiththesoleobjectiveofmaximizingtheprofitsofthelatter厰RonaldDorethus,in搈odern?marketeconomy,wecanseparatemanagementfromownership...7/23/20236WilliamA.FischerOtherUnderlyingAssumptionsprofits[surpluses]beingseenasasignalofperformanceinamarketafaithinmarketallocationofresourcesincomplexsituationsovergovernmentallocation--becausethecustomerisvotingwiththeirpurchasesthemaximizationoftheoverallsocialwelfarefunctionbytheaccumulationofnumerouspersonaldecisions--thecustomerbeingseenasbeinginthebestpositiontodeterminewhattheywant7/23/20237WilliamA.FischerEstablishingtheArena[Amarketis]thatsetofsuppliersanddemanderswhosetradingestablishesthepriceofagood.GeorgeStigler&RobertSherwinCustomersSuppliersRivalry7/23/20238WilliamA.FischerInsuchaclassicalmarketsetting,itisimportanttoconsidereconomiesofscaleThehistoryoftheindustrialrevolutionwasoneofeconomiesofscale.7/23/20239WilliamA.FischerTheCentralityofScaleEconomiesTheEconomicsoftheIndustrialRevolutionStaticEconomiesDynamicEconomiesCostperUnitRatedCapacityofFacilityCostperUnitCumulativeProductionofAStandardizedItemTheoretical7/23/202310Insuchaclassicalmarketsetting,itisimportanttoconsidereconomiesofscaleThehistoryoftheindustrialrevolutionwasoneofeconomiesofscale.Inmarketswhereconsumersarepricesensitive,largerfirmscanusetheircostadvantagetogainanappreciableadvantageoversmallerfirms.IntheUS,ithasbeenshownthatfirmsizeispositivelycorrelatedwithprofitability.However,causeandeffectarenotwell-established.Also,largersharesforsome,meanlowersharesforothers.7/23/202311WilliamA.FischerInsuchaclassicalmarketsetting,itisimportanttoconsidereconomiesofscaleThehistoryoftheindustrialrevolutionwasoneofeconomiesofscale.Buteveninsuchanon-complexsetting,biggerwasnotalwaysbetter.Infact,instudiesintheUS,mid-century,minimumoptimalplant/firmsizeappearedtobesmallrelativetomarketsize[single-digit].7/23/202312WilliamA.FischerTheCentralityofScaleEconomiesTheEconomicsoftheIndustrialRevolutionStaticEconomiesDynamicEconomiesCostperUnitRatedCapacityofFacilityCostperUnitCumulativeProductionofAStandardizedItemTheoretical&Empirical7/23/202313Insuchaclassicalmarketsetting,itisimportanttoconsidereconomiesofscaleButeveninsuchanon-complexsetting,biggerwasnotalwaysbetter.OneofthelessonsoftheJapanesemanufacuringtriumphsofthelastthreedecadeshasbeentheimportanceoflearning,throughrepetitivemanufacturing,whichisdifferentthanjustbeingbiggerorsmarter.7/23/202314WilliamA.FischerTheCentralityofScaleEconomiesTheEconomicsoftheIndustrialRevolutionStaticEconomies

DynamicEconomiesCostperUnitRatedCapacityofFacilityCostperUnitCumulativeProductionofAStandardizedItemTheoretical&Empirical7/23/202315Insuchaclassicalmarketsetting,itimportanttoconsidereconomiesofscaleOneofthelessonsoftheJapanesemanufacuringtriumphsofthelastthreedecadeshasbeentheimportanceoflearning,throughrepetitivemanufacturing.

Yet,learning,especiallywhenbasedonrepetition,comeswiththeriskofrigidityifthefocusistoo-muchonconsistentcost-reduction.7/23/202316WilliamA.FischerTheImportanceofMarketMaturityempiricalresearchon113USmanufacturingfirmsbyCEIBSfaculty ?nearlyonehalfoftherevenuesgeneratedbythe11mostsuccessfulfirms?camefrommaturemarkets.However,77percentofrevenuesfor15oftheleastsuccessfulfirmscamefrommaturemarkets.Capon,Farley&Hoenig7/23/202317WilliamA.Fischerbut,marketsarechanging;

theyarenolongerclassicalnorsimple7/23/202318WilliamA.FischerTheHistoryofCompetitionwasmarkedbysuccessiveIndustrialRevolutions7/23/202319WilliamA.FischerTomorrow抯Markets

willbecharacterizedby:*Increasinglydemandingcustomers*Anemergingglobalarena*Anamalgamationofmarketsandresourcepools[EU,NAFTA,etc.]*Theappearanceofadversarialtrade*Neo-Kondratieffiantechnologychanges*Thequickeningoftheproductlife-cycle*Theemergenceoftheknowledge-basedinformationeconomy*Anacceptanceofneworganizationalformats[Alliances,jvs,wofes,etc.]7/23/202320WilliamA.FischerTheDeathofFirms

Adyingcompanydoesnotlead;itfollows.Itislosingmarketshare,itislosingcapabilities,ithasthewrongsetofcompetencies,itisdemoralized,itsactivitieshavelittleimpact.Infact,allarounduswecanobservecompaniesthatareinastateworsethandeath-theyhavejoinedthelivingdead,aware(ornot)thatwhatevertheydomakeslittledifferencetotheirsituation,andyettheyfeelcompelledtokeeponacting,producing,carryingon. Deathismostoftenalongdrawnoutaffair.Evenwithineptmanagement,itstilltakesalongtimetodestryalargecompanywithoncestrong,ifcurrentlyobsoletecapabilities. Deathisnostrangertotheranksofoncepowerfulmanufacturingcompanies.Everyindustryhasitsshareofthedead,aswellastheterminallyillandthewalkingwounded.TomVollmann:7/23/202321WilliamA.FischerDeathSignalsofthenon-competitivestayingleveloffallingbehindthecompetitionriskaversionbureaucracylosingcapabilitieserosionofwhatwereoncedistinctivecompetenciesinternalfocusingofcorporateattentionlimitedknowledgeofthecustomerpanicdecisionstoreduceshort-runcostsnotdevelopingpeople? TomVollmann7/23/202322WilliamA.FischerInHyper-competitiveMarketsSuchasthosecharacterizingglobalmarketsinthelate20thcentury,thatarefilledwith搒urprises?1.theabilitytonavigatefromoneproductgenerationtoanotheristhebasisforsustainedcompetitiveadvantage.ThinkaboutWang!2.greatorganizationsarenecessarytoproducegreatproducts(morethanonce),whilegreatproductsdonotguaranteegreatorganizations.3.揌ighreturnsarenotsustainableinaparticularmarket,buttheprocessofgeneratinghighreturnscanbesustainable.

lastquoteisfrom:Capon,Farley&Hoenig7/23/202323WilliamA.FischerEarlyLessonsfromInSearchofExcellenceExcellentfirmsarecharacterizedby(amongotherthings:BiasforActionClosetotheCustomerAutonomy&EntrepreneurshipFocusSimpleform,LeanstaffPeters&Waterman7/23/202324WilliamA.FischerMorerecentfindingsfromEuropeExcellentEuropeanfirmsarecharacterizedby(amongotherthings):Devolvingleadership(withoutlosingcontrolordirection)Drivingradicalchange(intheentirecorporatesystem,not justinitsparts)ReshapingcultureDividingtorule(winningtherewardsofsmallnesswhile stayingorgrowinglarge)Keepingthecompetitiveedge(inaworldwheretheoldways ofwinningnolongerwork)AchievingconstantrenewalRobertHeller7/23/202325WilliamA.FischerDeterminantsofFinancialPerformancecompetinginrelativelyconcentratedmarketswithhighermarketsharecompetingingrowingmarketshighinvestmentindevelopingnewproducts&serviceshighinvolvementsinmarketsoutsideofUSlowdebtlevelsanentreprenurialatmosphereempiricalresearchon113USmanufacturingfirmsbyCEIBSfacultyCapon,Farley&Hoenig7/23/202326WilliamA.FischerComparingHigh&LowPerformersempiricalresearchon113USmanufacturingfirmsbyCEIBSfacultyHigh-PerformingHigh-ShareFocusedInnovatorsconcentratecapitalinvestmentingrowinginternationalmarketsgeneratenewproductsfromhighR&DbudgetsarehighlyverticallyintegratedhavelittlediversificationhavelowdebthighlyspecializedintheirorganizationHigh-PerformingFocusedWorldConsumeristsfocuslessinternationallyspendheavilyonadvertisinghavelowdebtdiversificationalmostnonexistentCapon,Farley&Hoenig7/23/202327WilliamA.FischerComparingHigh&LowPerformersempiricalresearchon113USmanufacturingfirmsbyCEIBSfacultyLow-PerformingDiversifiedIndenturedIndustrialistsspendlittleonR&DwerefrequentlyinvolvedinmergersconductedunderduressarehighlydiversifiedhavehighdebtonlyaverageoninternationalinvestmentCapon,Farley&Hoenig7/23/202328WilliamA.FischerNavigatingResources&InformationInformationComplexityHighLowResourceScarcityLowHighLawrence&DyerDevelopmentPathsforaTypicalIndustry7/23/202329WilliamA.Fischerthiswillmeanchangingthewaysinwhichwedobusiness7/23/202330WilliamA.FischerDimensionsofTransformationSpeedFastSlowScopeBroadNarrowDoingDifferentThingsDoingtheSameThingsBetterTurnaroundTransformationReengineeringContinuousImprovementSource:TomVollmann7/23/202331WilliamA.Fischerand,changingthebusinesseswedo7/23/202332WilliamA.FischerIndustryRestructuringasValueMigration

MarketValueisameasureofthepowerofabusinessdesigntocreateandcapturevalue.AdrianJ.Slywotzky Customersmakechoicesbasedontheirpriorities.Thosechoicesdeveloppotentialvalueforthebusinessesfromwhichtheybuy.Atanygiventime,thepatternofthosechoicesallocatesvaluetovariousbusinessdesigns.Ascustomers?prioritieschangeandnewdesignspresentcustomerswithnewoptions,theymakenewchoices.Theyreallocatevalue.Thesechangingpriorities,andthewayinwhichtheyinteractwithnewcompetitors?offerings,arewhattrigger,enable,orfacilitatetheValueMigrationprocess.

AdrianJ.Slywotzky

7/23/202333WilliamA.FischerValueMigrationtodayinChina?..ThefirmsthatarewinningintheChinamarketarethosethatcontroltheirvalue-chains,especiallydown-streamfrommanufacturing!Buildingbrandsmakesthedifferenceincompetingonfactorsotherthanprice:brand&customerservicerequiresvalue-chaindiscipline.Nationalbrandsarebeingbuilttoday,asinthepast,byvalue-chaincontrol.7/23/202334WilliamA.FischerinChina,valuemigrationresultsin...Focusingsolelyontransportcostsmayignore75%ofthedistributioncosts.InChina,nearly2/3ofdistributioncostscomesinproductloss&damage,andtheassociatedinventorycosts.Customerservice&accountsreceivablebothbenefitfromvalue-chaincontrol.BusinessChina12/07/987/23/202335WilliamA.FischerIndustryRestructuring&ValueMigrationValueMigrationisnotnew.ValuemigratedawayFord抯verticallyintegrated,single-car-focusedbusinessdesigntowardGM抯price-ladderedbusinessdesigninthe1920s.Itmovedfromgrocerystorechainstosupermarketsinthe1930s,fromfragmentedmerchandiserstonationalcataloguesalesinthe1890s(Sears),andtonationalmerchandisechainsinthe1920s(Searsagain).AdrianJ.Slywotzky TherearealwayswinnersandlosersintheValueMigrationprocess.7/23/202336WilliamA.FischerWeMustRe-etablishtheArena [thereisabigdifferencebetween]definingcompetitorsas搕hosecompaniesthatdothesamethingthatwedo厯[and]definingthem[instead]asthosebusinessdesignsthatcustomerscanchoosefrominsatisfyingtheirpriorities.AdrianJ.Slywotzky[Where]abusinessdesignisthetotalityofhowacompanyselectsitscustomers,d