1、Ann ArborBuenos AiresChristchurchFrankfurtKuala LampurLondonMadridMelbourneMilanParisPorto AlegreStockholmZurichNational Customer Satisfaction Indicesby Claes FornellDonald C. Cook Professor andDirector, National Quality Research CenterUniversity of Michigan Business School.“An economy cannot be des

2、cribed by adding up how many tons of rebar it makes, how many passenger miles of air travel it logs, how much wood its woodchucks chuck per hour. All these things count (and we count them), but in the final analysis what matters is how well an economy satisfies its customers (Thomas Stewart, Fortune

3、, 1995).The Measured Economy Includes Pig-iron productionCoal productionRailroad operating incomeRail freightEtc. .The Economy Is Changing.How We Measure Performance isAlso ChangingThe Old WorldThe New WorldMass production and consumption of commoditiesIncreasingly customized goods, services and inf

4、ormationProductivityProductivityandCustomerSatisfaction.Implications for Companies.Customer Asset Management isBuilt on the Following PrinciplesSatisfied customers are an economic asset that yields future cash flowsThese cash flows can be calculated as discounted present valueCosts to grow the custo

5、mer asset baseare investmentsSkillful management of the customer asset is essential for long-term profitability.Customer Asset Value in Global MarketsECSI(Europe)KCSI(Korea)MCSI(Malaysia)ACSI(Australia)ACSI(Argentina)BCSI(Brazil)MCSI(Mexico)CCSI(Canada)ACSI Global Competition The Role of Intangibles

6、.Major Reasons for a National Index of Customer SatisfactionQuality of economic output is essential toliving standardsCustomer satisfaction is a leading indicator of company economic performanceCustomer satisfaction contributes to economic growth and job creationNecessary measure for CPI, productivi

7、ty, and ultimately, GDP.Some Important Economic Indicators and a NEW One!.National Economy, Sectors and Industries*$665 B$582 B$472 B$392 B$277 B$106 B$62 B* The size of each of the seven sectors is shown above as the percent of the total 1994 gross domestic product. Sales figures reflect the total

8、sales for the selected U.S. firms. The total sales of the selected firms are 51% of the GDP for these seven sectors and 38% of the national GDP.ManufacturingNondurables(SIC 2)8.2%ManufacturingDurables(SIC 3)9.4%Transportation/Communications/Utilities (SIC 4)8.8%Retail(SIC 5)9.3%Finance/Insurance(SIC

9、 6)6.8%Services(SICs 7,8)19.6%PublicAdministration/Government(SIC 9)12.6%Apparel/athletic shoesApparel/sportswearBeverages/beerBeverages/softdrinksFood processing meat dairy canned goods cereal baked goods confectionaryGasolinePersonal care and cleaning productsPublishing/newspapersTobacco/cigarette

10、sAutomobiles, vans and light trucksConsumer electronics/TV and VCRHousehold appliancesPersonal computersAirlinesBroadcasting/TVParcel delivery & express mailTelecommunications/local phoneTelecommunications/long distance phoneU.S. Postal ServiceUtilities/electric serviceDepartment and discount stores

11、Restaurants/fast food,pizza, and carryoutSupermarketsCommercial banksLife insuranceInsurance/personal, property,homeowners and automobileHospitalsHotels and motelsMotion picturesSolid waste/central city (metro)Solid waste/suburban (metro)Internal Revenue ServicePolice/central city (metro)Police/subu

12、rban(metro).CoverageSeven sectorsForty industriesTwo Hundred+ companies and agencies$2.7 trillion sales (U.S. companies).The RespondentsApproximately one million sampled randomlyScreened: Recent experience as a customer of the selected companiesApproximately 250,000 completed interviews.Customer Exp

13、ectationsACSI ModelPerceivedService QualitySatisfactionComparison w/ IdealConfirm/DisconfirmExpectationsPerceivedOverall QualityPerceivedValueCustomerComplaintsCustomerLoyaltyRepurchase LikelihoodPrice Tolerance(Reservation Price)OverallCustomizationReliabilityOverallCustomizationReliabilityPrice Gi

14、ven QualityQuality Given PricePerceivedProduct QualityReliabilityCustomizationOverallReliabilityCustomizationOverallComplaint BehaviorCustomer Satisfaction(ACSI).ACSI Companies Included .Changes in National ACSI.Customer Satisfaction and Economic Performance: The Evidence to DateROI or ROAPositive a

15、nd significant relationship(U.S. and Swedish data)Ricardian RentsPositive and significant relationship(Tobins Q)(U.S. data)Market ValueOne point ACSI = $647 MillionMarket To BookPositive and significant relationship(U.S. data)Risk MeasuresNegative and significant relationship(with loyalty variable n

16、ot ACSI)Stock Price ReturnsHigh ACSI and SCSB firms out perform the market(U.S. and Swedish portfolios)Stock Market ReactionStatistically significant reaction followingpublic release of ACSI results (U.S.)Economic Value AddedPositive and significant relationship with MVA.Ricardian Rents.Ricardian Re

17、ntsState-Dependent Specification.A Simple Valuation Model Using the ACSI.Customer Satisfaction as anEconomic AssetAn asset must have a relevant attribute that can be measured in monetary terms with sufficient reliability. (FASB)“One clear driver of wealth production is customer satisfaction. (Commis

18、sioner Steven Wallman, Securities and Exchange Commission, 1997)If true, there should be a relationship between changes in the expected discounted present value of the future income stream that customer satisfaction will generate and changes in the ACSI.Market Value Added (MVA) A measure of the weal

19、th a company has created for its investors.It is calculated as the difference between what investors put in and what they can take out. *Significant at .05 level* Significant at .01 levelACSI (1994)MVA (1995)ACSI (1996).24*Correlations:.33*.Decrease inshort-term earningsandRising Customer Satisfaction Earnings PowerEnhanced.Increase inshort-term