GlobalEconomics

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GlobalSummaryReportFebruary2023

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Source:IHSGlobalInsight;McKinsey’sGlobalEconomicsIntelligenceanalysis

GlobalEconomicsIntelligence?ExecutiveSummary(1/3),January2023

ServicesPMIs,almostuniformlyinexpansion,strengthenedinChinaandthedevelopedeconomies

Overthepast2months

DecemberJanuaryFebruary

58.557.2

45.948.748.052.9

USEurozoneUKBrazilRussiaIndiaChina

Note:Areadingabove50.0indicatesanincreasefromthepreviousmonth,andareadingbelow50.0indicatesadecrease.Thecountry-leveldataarethePMIsforindividualcountriesassourcedfromMarkitEconomicsandarenotabreakdownoftheJPMorganGlobalPMI.

Someeconomicindicatorsstrengthenamidpersistinginflationandinvestoruncertainty;centralbankskeeptoatighteningcourse.

Ascentralbanksattempttoreduceinflationwithhigherinterestrates,notallcornersoftheeconomyarecoolingdownasintended.Inmanufacturing,outputisindeedsubduedoutsideChinabutglobalindicatorspointtogeneralaccelerationintheserviceseconomy.IntheUnitedStatespositiveretailsalestotalsandoutsizejobsgrowthsuggestastrongerbusinessenvironmentinearly2023.InChina,thepurchasingmanagers’indexformanufacturing,akeyleadingindicator,reached52.6inFebruary,thehighestreadinginmorethanadecade.Thenon-manufacturingPMIforChinaroseto56.3onhigherservicesandconstructionactivityinaneconomyawakeningfromthe“zero-COVID”closures.Intheeurozone,servicesgrowthpushedthecompositePMI(formanufacturingandservices)abovetheexpansionlineof50withareadingof50.3inJanuary;theindicatorthenadvancedto52.6inFebruary,thehighestmarkrecordedsinceMay2022.

Whilesomeeconomicdataruncountertopredictionsofrecessionmadeattheendof2022,stop-and-gofinancialmarketsandcorporatebelt-tighteningattesttoCEOandinvestoruncertainty.Thecautioncomesfromstill-highconsumer-andproducer-priceinflation.Forconsumers,energyandfoodpricesweretheprincipalinflationdriverstobeginwith,butcoreinflationrateshavesince

beenpushedupwardsaswell.Centralbanks,meanwhile,keepraisingpolicyinterestrates:atFebruarymeetings,theUSFederalReserveraiseditsrateto4.5–4.75%,theEuropeanCentralBankto2.5–3%,theBankofEnglandto4%,andtheReserveBankofIndiato6.5%.Furtherhikesin2023areexpectedformanyoftheseeconomies.InBrazil,wherethepolicyrateof13.75%isoneofthehighestintheworld,PresidentLuladaSilvahassharplycriticizedthecentralbank’scourseasamajordragoneconomicprosperity.

Adisinflationaryprocesshasbeenobservedinmanyeconomies,aspricesstillrisebutataslowerrate.Yettoday’sinflationarydynamicsarestubbornthings.InIndiainflationrecededinmonthlystepsfrom7.4%inSeptember2022to5.7%inDecember.InJanuary2023,however,inflationcameback,risingto6.5%onhigherpricesforcereals(+16.1%)andspices(+21.1%).Intheeurozone,inflationacceleratedinFebruaryinGermany(9.3%),France(7.2%),andSpain(6.1%),astheenergypriceshockfromlastyearcontinuestofilterthroughtothecostofgoodsandservices.InvestorsarenowexpectingfurtherhikesintheECBinterestrate,butpolicymakersaredebatingthepotentialeffectsofhighinterestratesonEurope’sgrowthandfinancialstability.IntheUS,meanwhile,wheretheinflationratehasdescendedfrom9.1%inJune2022to6.4%inJanuary2023,coreinflationwenttheotherwayinJanuary,bouncingupto4.6%from4.3%inDecember2022.

GlobalEconomicsIntelligence?ExecutiveSummary(3/3),January2023

Inthedevelopedeconomies,inflationiseasingslowlyandisstillhighenoughtopushconsumptionlevelslowerandkeepinterestrateselevated

Consumerpriceindexes:Developedeconomies

%yearoveryear(monthly)

USEurozoneUK

15

10

5

0

–5

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

2007

2012

2017

2022

Producerpriceindexes:Developedeconomies

%yearoveryear(monthly)

50

40

30

20

10

0

–10

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

2007

2012

2017

2022

QuestionsonthemindsofmostUSeconomistsandpolicymakersarewhethertheFedcanreachitsinflationtargetof2%withouttriggeringarecessionandwhetherdoingthatwouldbeworththeeconomiccost.

Inotherrecentdata,globalandindividualconsumerconfidenceindicatorsdidnotgenerallyworseninJanuarybutremainedstableatalowlevel.RetailsalesretainedpositivemomentumintheUSandUKinJanuary;inolderdata,salesretreatedintheEUandChinainDecember.

Theglobalpurchasingmanagers’indexes(PMIs)forbothmanufacturingandservicesmeasuredmildcontractioninJanuary.InFebruary,individualmanufacturingPMIsshowimprovementacrosssurveyedeconomies;mildcontractionpersistsindevelopedeconomies;China’smanufacturingenginesreturnedtoexpansionterritory.IndividualservicesPMIs,meanwhile,arealmostuniformlyinexpansion,especiallystrengtheninginChinaandthedevelopedeconomies.

Overallin2022,worldtradeexpanded3.2%.Attheendoftheyearandinto2023,however,tradevolumesslumped.InDecember,volumesdecreased–0.9%(–1.7%inNovember);notably,exportsfromChinaandtheUSdecreased.InJanuary,theContainerThroughputIndexdecreasedto120.2(124.4inDecember)astrafficdeclinedinnorthernEuropeanports.AfteraslightuptickinDecember,theSupplyChainPressureIndexreturnedtoitseasingcourseinJanuary2023.

Unemploymentratesremainrelativelylowinallsurveyedeconomies:3.4%intheUS;6.6%intheeurozone;3.7%intheUK,and7.9%inBrazil.Inaclearsignofeconomicmomentum,theUSeconomyadded517,000newjobsinJanuary,thehighesttotalinmorethanayear.

Inthedevelopedeconomies,inflationisslowlyeasingbutitisstillhighenoughtopushconsumptionlevelslowerandkeepinterestrateselevated.Inemergingeconomies,disinflationisproceedingmorerapidly,especiallyforproducerprices.

TheBrentcrudeprice,nowat$83perbarrel(March1),hasbeenlowerinthenewyear.Withsignificantstockpilesofnaturalgasandamildwinter,Europehasbenefittedfromathree-months’-longdeclineinnaturalgasprices.At€47permegawatthouronMarch1,pricesarestillclosetothreetimestheirlevelonthesamedayin2021.Food-priceinflationhasslowedbutpricesofkeyfoodstuffsinsomelocalesremainasmuchas30%or40%aboveprewarorprepandemicnorms.

InflationexpectationsimpliedintheyieldspreadsofUSTreasuriesremainintherangeof2.3%to2.5%.Equityindexesinthedevelopedeconomies—especiallyEurope—havebeengraduallyrecoveringinthenewyear.TheUSdollarstrengthenedinFebruary,againsttheeuro($1.07),thepound($1.20),andtheyuan(RMB6.87).Theequitiesvolatilityindex(VIX)remainselevatedincomparisonwithprepandemiclevels.Yieldsonlong-termgovernmentbondseasedinFebruary

Source:Eurostat;nationalstatisticswebsites;McKinsey’sGlobalEconomicsIntelligenceanalysisMcKinsey&Company4

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[Developedeconomies]:USeconomyadds517,000jobsinJanuary;eurozoneindustrialactivitypicksup;theUKandEuropeanUnionproposeajointtradeagreementfortheborderwithIreland.

McKinsey&Company6

UnitedStates

Morethanahalf-millionnewjobswereaddedtotheUSeconomyinJanuary,signalingitsconsiderableresiliencedespitehighinflationandhighinterestrates.

InJanuary,USpayrollsincreasedby517,000,nearlytwicethetotalofnewjobsrecordedinDecember2022andwellbeyondtheconsensusforecast.Theunemploymentratetickeddownto3.4%,a53-yearlow,whilenewclaimsforunemploymentbenefitshavesettledtopre-pandemiclevels(around190,000duringJanuaryandFebruary2023).USinflationeasedonlyslightly,however,to6.4%(6.5%inDecember).WhileinflationhasslowedeachmonthsinceJune’shighof9.1%,itremainswellabovetheFederalReservetargetof2%.

PriortothereleaseoftheJanuaryjobsreport,theFedmadeasmallriseinitspolicyinterestrate,appearingtoslowamoreaggressiveapproachtobringingdowninflation.Thehikeof25basispointsannouncedaftertheFed’sFebruarymeetingbroughtthepolicyratetoarangeof4.5%to4.75%.Inremarks,FedchairJeromePowellsaidthatthe“disinflationaryprocesshasstarted”whilecautioningthatmoreevidenceofslowinginflationisneedediftheFedistoendorreverseitstighteningcourse.Policymakersareseekinga“softlanding,”inwhichinflationcontinuestoslowandinterestratescorrespondinglydeclinewithout,however,stokingrecessionarydynamics,includingasignificantriseinunemployment.

Thecomponentsoftheconsumerpriceindexonbalanceshowedslowinginflationbutthecostofenergyandhousingincreased.TheinflationsurveybytheNew

YorkFedforJanuary2023showsone-year-aheadinflationexpectationsdeclinedto5%.

TheUShousingmarketisunderpressurefromhigherinterestrates.Theaverage30-yearfix-ratemortgage,whichwasabove7%inNovember2022,isstillhigh,nowmeasuredat6.32%(February16).AccordingtotheNationalAssociationofRealtors,salesofexistinghomesfell–0.7%inJanuary2023,toanannualizedrateoffourmillionunits,thelowestin12years.Themedianpriceofexistinghomesfellto$359,000($410,000inNovember),anincreaseof1.3%onanannualbasisinJanuary.Officialgovernmentstatisticsreportthatthemedianpriceofanewhomewas$442,000inDecember($459,000inNovember).In2022overall,anestimated644,000newhomesweresold,wellbelowthetotalfor2021(771,000).

Theindustrialproductionindexwasat102.9inJanuary,unchangedfromDecember2022.Thepurchasingmanagers’index(PMI)formanufacturinghasshowncontractionforfourconsecutivemonths.InFebruary’sflashestimate,thereadingimprovedto47.8,indicatingaslightlyslowercontractionthaninJanuary(46.9).TheservicesPMI,meanwhile,brokeintotheexpansionzoneinFebruary’sflashestimateof50.5(46.8inJanuary).Ifconfirmed,thereadingrecordsthefirstexpansionsinceJune2022.

[Continuedonnextpage.]

GlobalEconomicsIntelligence?UnitedStatesreport,February2023

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UnitedStates

Morethanahalf-millionnewjobswereaddedtotheUSeconomyinJanuary,signalingitsconsiderableresiliencedespitehighinflationandhighinterestrates(cont’d).

Theconsumerconfidenceindex(ConferenceBoard)wasstillinpositiveterritoryinJanuary,thoughslightlylowerat107.1(109inDecember).USretailsalesroseto$697billioninJanuary,a3%increaseoverthetotalinDecember2022($676.9billion)and6.4%abovethetotalinJanuary2021.

Thelatesttradedatashowsthatimportsincreasedto$317.6billioninDecemberfrom$313.4billioninNovember(an11-monthlow).Exportsdecreasedto$250.2billion($254.2billioninNovember).Fortheyear2022comparedwith2021overall,exportsincreased$453.1billionto$3.01trillionandimportsincreased$556.1billionto$3.96trillion.TheUSistheworld’sthird-largestexporter(afterChinaandtheEuropeanUnion)butexportsconstitutedonly10%ofUSGDPin2022.

TheS&P500hasgainedaround4%sincethebeginningoftheyear;theDowJonesindexisslightlylowerthanitwasonJanuary3,havinglostsomegroundinFebruary.Investorshavelatelybeenreactingtointerest-rateexpectations.TheresilienceoftheUSeconomy—asevidencedbyhigherretailsalesandastrongemploymentpicture—couldkeepinflationandthereforeinterestrateshigherforlonger.

TheUSAdministration’s“InflationReductionAct”providesseveralhundredbillionsinsubsidiestoUS-basedcompaniesseekingtoshifttoalow-carbon

economy.ItseconomicagendaincludessupportforUSautomakerstowardthegoalofmanufacturingatleast50%all-electricvehiclesby2030.ThesubsidieshavesetoffadebatewithintheEuropeanUniononhowtorespond.

TheCentersforDiseaseControlreportedonFebruary10thattheseven-dayaveragefornewCOVID-19caseswas40,400(40,000aweekprior),andtheseven-daymortalityaveragewas453,closeto10%belowthepreviousweek’slevel.

GlobalEconomicsIntelligence?UnitedStatesreport,February2023

McKinsey&Company7

GlobalEconomicsIntelligence>UnitedStatesreport,February2023

Investorscontinuetoexpectinflationarypressureoverthemediumandlongterm

Breakeveninflationratesfor5-yearand10-yearUSTreasuryyields1

%

10-year5-yearSpread

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

–0.5

–1.0

Jan2019

1Thelatestvalueimplieswhatmarketparticipantsexpectinflationtobeinthenext5or10years,onaverage.

Source:FederalReserve;McKinsey’sGlobalEconomicsIntelligenceanalysis

February16,2023

McKinsey&Company

8

|9

Source:FederalReserve;McKinsey’sGlobalEconomicsIntelligenceanalysisMcKinsey&Company

GlobalEconomicsIntelligence>UnitedStatesreport,February2023

Amidhigherinflationandinterestrates,yieldson5-and10-yearUSTreasuryproductsinvertedinthesecondhalfof2022

2-and10-yearTreasuryyields10-year2-yearSpread

%

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

–0.5

–1.0

Jan2020

February16,2023

GlobalEconomicsIntelligence>UnitedStatesheatmap,February2023

Morethanahalf-millionnewjobswereaddedtotheUSeconomyinJanuary,signalingconsiderableresiliencedespitehighinflationandhighinterestrates.Retailsalesincrease,butindustryindicatorsremainsluggishamidstill-highinflation

SignificantimprovementImprovingNosignificantchangeWorseningSeveredecline

Indicator

category

Change

vsprior

month

Change

vspre-

COVID

JobsgrowthisverystronginJanuaryandlatestretailsalesdataispositive;housingpictureisstillunderinflationpressures

?InJanuary,USpayrollsincreasedby517,000,nearlytwicethetotalofnewjobsrecordedinDecember2022andwellbeyondtheconsensus

forecast.Theunemploymentratetickeddownto3.4%,a53-yearlow.

Consumer

Business/industry

?Theindustrialproductionindexwas102.9inJanuary,unchangedfromDecember2022.Thepurchasingmanagers’index(PMI)formanufacturinghasshowncontractionforfourconsecutivemonths.InFebruary’sflashestimate,thereadingimprovedto47.8,indicatingaslightlyslowercontractionthaninJanuary(46.9).TheservicesPMI,meanwhile,brokeintotheexpansionzoneinFebruary’sflashestimateof50.5(46.8inJanuary).

?USretailsalesroseto$697billioninJanuary,a3%increaseoverthetotalinDecember2022($676.9billion)and6.4%abovethetotalinJanuary

Realestate

2021.Theconsumerconfidenceindex(ConferenceBoard)wasslightlylowerinJanuary,at107.1(109inDecember).

Macroeconomic

?Thelatesttradedatashowsthatimportsincreasedto$317.6billioninDecemberfrom$313.4billioninNovember(an11-monthlow).Exports

Trade,external

decreasedto$250.2billion($254.2billioninNovember).

?Theaverage30-yearfix-ratemortgageisnowmeasuredat6.32%(February16).AccordingtotheNationalAssociationofRealtors,salesof

Prices

existinghomesfell–0.7%inJanuary2023,toanannualizedrateoffourmillionunits,thelowestin12years.Themedianpriceofanewhomewas$442,000inDecember($459,000inNovember).In2022overall,644,000newhomesweresold,wellbelowthetotalfor2021(771,000).

Employment

?USinflationeasedslightlyto6.4%(6.5%inDecember).WhileinflationhasslowedeachmonthsinceJune’shighof9.1%,itremainswellabovetheFederalReservetargetof2%.

Foreignexchange

Equity

Financial

markets

Debt

Credit

TheFederalReservemadeasmallhikeininterestrates;manyanalystsbelievepolicytighteningwillcontinue,however

?TheS&P500hasgainedaround4%sincethebeginningoftheyear;theDowJonesindexisslightlylowerthanitwasonJanuary3,havinglostsomegroundinFebruary.InvestorshavelatelybeenreactingtosignsthattheFedwillnotbringdowninterestratessoon.

?TheFedmadeasmallriseinitspolicyinterestrate,appearingtoslowamoreaggressiveapproachtobringingdowninflation.Thehikeof25basispointsannouncedaftertheFed’sFebruarymeetingbroughtthepolicyratetoarangeof4.5%to4.75%.FedchairJeromePowellcautionedthatmoreevidenceofslowinginflationisneedediftheFedistoendorreverseitstighteningcourse.

TheUSAdministration’s“InflationReductionAct”andotherpoliciesofferconsiderablesubsidiesforlow-carbontransition

Governmentandpolicy

Publicpolicy

Public-sectorhealth

?TheUSAdministration’s“InflationReductionAct”providesseveralhundredbillionsinsubsidiestoUS-basedcompaniesseekingtoshifttoalow-carboneconomy.ItseconomicagendaincludessupportforUSautomakerstowardthegoalofmanufacturingatleast50%all-electricvehiclesby

2030.ThesubsidieshavesetoffadebatewithintheEuropeanUniononhowtorespond.

?TheCentersforDiseaseControlreportedonFebruary10thattheseven-dayaveragefornewCOVID-19caseswas40,400(40,000aweekprior),andtheseven-daymortalityaveragewas453,closeto10%belowthepreviousweek’slevel.

Source:BLS;FederalReserve;NAREIT;NYFederalReserveBank;U.S.CensusBureau;McKinsey’sGlobalEconomicsIntelligenceanalysis

McKinsey&Company10

GlobalEconomicsIntelligence?Eurozonereport,February2023

PhotobyIlnurKalimullinonUnsplash

Eurozone

GDPexpands3.5%in2022;inflationslowsandenergypricesease;exportsrevive.

Accordingtoofficialestimates,theeurozoneeconomywillhavegrown3.5%in2022.Amongthelargesteconomies,Spain’sisestimatedtohaveexpandedthefastestat5.5%,followedbytheNetherlands(4.4%),Italy(3.9%),France(2.6%),andGermany(1.9%).Overall,theeurozoneeconomiesslowedinthesecondhalfof2022,whenGDPgrewatanannualizedrateof1.9%.

Thethird-andfourth-quarterslowdownwastheresultofseveralfactorsmadeworsebythewarinUkraine:supplybottlenecks,risingcommodityprices,higherfinancingcosts,andenergyuncertainty.ThedisruptionsledsomeforecasterstoestimateaeurozonecontractionforQ4andbeyond.WhilesomememberstatesdidexperienceamildretreatinQ4,notablyGermany(–0.2%q-o-q),moredirepredictionshavenotmaterialized.Countervailingfactorsincludemildwinterweatherandamplesubstitutesuppliesofnaturalgas.

Thelatesteconomicdataarepromising.Industrialactivityhaslatelyaccelerated.Theflashestimateoftheservicespurchasingmanagers’index(PMI)leaptto53inFebruary(50.8inJanuary);whilethemanufacturingPMIisstillincontractionterritoryat48.5,thecompositePMIestimateis52.3forFebruary(50.3inJanuary).Theindustrialproductionindexhasmeasuredgrowthover2021sinceAugust.Eurocoin,aleadingindicatorfortheeurozoneeconomy,returnedtopositiveterritoryinJanuary,ifbarely,withareadingof0.06(?0.23inDecember).Eurozoneequitymarketshaveralliedinthenewyear:theEurostoxx600index,forexample,hasgained8%invaluesinceyearend2022.

Inflationslowedto8.6%inJanuary(9.2%inDecember2022),butcoreinflationtickedupslightly,to5.3%(5.2%inDecember).Thelargestcomponentofcoreinflation,

servicesinflation,whichincludeswagegrowth,roseto4.4%(from4.2%).DespiterecentnominalwagegrowthinEurope,realwageshavedecreasedduetohighinflation.Theofficialconsumerconfidenceindicatorhasbeenimprovingforfivemonthsbutremainswellbelowitslong-termaverage.Inthelatestdata,retailsalesdeclined–2.8%year-on-yearinDecember.

Thelastreadingforproducerpriceinflationwas24.6%inDecember(27%inNovember);thehighrateismainlydrivenbyhighenergyprices,andparticularlynaturalgasprices.Thesehavesincecomedownsignificantly,descendingfromaDecember2022priceof€85permegawatthourto€50inFebruary(DutchTTFfutures).Thepriceisstillseveraltimeswhatitwastwoyearsago.

TheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB)estimatesthatconsumerinflationwillslowto3.4%bytheendof2023onitswaydowntothebank’s2%target.AtitsFebruarymeetingtheECBraiseditskeypolicyrate50basispoints,to3%,whileconfirmingthatitwouldmakeanotherraiseinMarch,to3.5%.Thesearethehighestpolicyratesseensince2008.Mostanalystsdonotforeseeareversalofpolicytighteninguntil2024.

Duetohighenergyandcommodityprices,eurozonetradebalanceshavebeennegativesinceNovember2021,whentenyearsoftradesurplusesended.InDecember2022,tradevolumesdeclined,withimportstotaling€247.5billion(€276.5billioninNovember)andexportstotaling€239billion(€265billioninNovember).

TheeuroslightlydepreciatedagainsttheUSdollarinFebruary,tradingat$1.06aftera2023highof$1.09.TheItalian–German10-yearbond-yieldspreadstabilizedat1.8%;theyieldsroserespectivelyfrom4.2%to4.3%andfrom2.2%to2.5%.

Source:Bancad’Italia;ECB;EuropeanCommission;Eurostat;HaverAnalytics;McKinsey’sGlobalEconomicsIntelligenceanalysis

Source:Bancad’Italia;EuropeanCommission;Eurostat;HaverAnalytics;McKinsey’sGlobalEconomicsIntelligenceanalysisMcKinsey&Company12

0,3

3,23,33,43,5

0,50,50,7

GlobalEconomicsIntelligence?Eurozonereport,February2023

Eurozonegrowthprojectionshavebeenupgraded;theEurocoinleadingindicatorretakespositiveground

EurozonerealGDPforecastfrommaininstitutions,2020–22

Year-on-year,constantprices(%change)

EUCommission(November2022)ECBStaffProjections(December2022)

OECD(December2022)IMFWorldEconOutlook(January2023)

5,35,35,35,3

–6,1–6,1–6,1–6,1

2020202120222023

Eurocoinindex

Index(monthly,%change)

EurocoinindexGDPq-on-qchange

13.0

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

a

–0.5

–1.0

–1.5

–2.0

–2.5

–3.0

–3.5

–11.5

20070809101112131415161718192021222023

GlobalEconomicsIntelligence?Eurozoneheatmap,February2023

Inflationhasbeguntoslowbutremainsadragonrealdisposableincome;inthenewyear,industryindicatorsbrightenedandstockmarketsgainedground

SignificantimprovementImprovingNosignificantchangeWorseningSeveredecline

ChangeChangeLatestindustryindicatorsarepositive;consumerconfidenceremainslowasinflationerodeshouseholdincome

Indicator

category

vspriormonth

vspre-

COVID

?Theflashestimateoftheservicespurchasingmanagers’index(PMI)leaptto53inFebruary(50.8inJanuary);whilethemanufacturingPMIisstillincontractionterritoryat48.5,thecompositePMIestimateis52.3forFebruary(50.3inJanuary).Theindustrialproductionindexhas

Consumer

Business/industry

Realestate

Macroeconomic

Externaltrade

Prices

Employment

measuredgrowthover2021sinceAugust.

?Theofficialconsumerconfidenceindicatorhasbeenimprovingforfivemonthsbutremainswellbelowitslong-termaverage.Inthelatestdata,retailsalesdeclined–2.8%year-on-yearinDecember.

?ConstructionandrealestateindexesweredowninDecembercomparedwiththepreviousmonthandwiththesameperiodlastyear.

?Duetohighenergyandcommodityprices,eurozonetradebalanceshavebeennegativesinceNovember2021,whentenyearsoftradesurplusesended.InDecember2022,tradevolumesdeclined,withimportstotaling€247.5billion(€276.5billioninNovember)andexportstotaling€239billion(€265billioninNovember).

?Inflationslowedto8.6%inJanuary(9.2%inDecember2022),butcoreinflationtickedupslightly,to5.3%(5.2%inDecember).Thelargestcompone