可持續發展的綠色核算國際和世行經驗-SustainabiOutline提綱Introduction前言InternationalexperienceTheWorldBank’sAdjustedNetSavingsmethodology世行經過調整的凈儲蓄方法AdjustedNetSavingsinAsia亞洲經過調整的凈儲蓄Lookingahead未來發展21–Introduction前言Assetaccountingforsustainabledevelopment可持續發展的資產核算3Aconditionforsustainabledevelopment可持續發展的一個條件Society’srealwealthisnotdecliningovertime社會真正財富是不隨時間而下降的Realwealthconsistsof真正財富包括：Producedassets生產的資產(buildings,machines,vehicles,etc.)accountedforintheNationalAccountsOtherassets其它資產(expandingthemeasureofwealth)NaturalresourcesHumancapitalSocialcapital4Empiricalevidence:Theimportanceofhumanandsocialcapitalascomponentofwealth實例：人力和社會資本在財富中的重要程度5Empiricalevidence:Largedifferenceinthecompositionofnaturalcapitalacrosscountries實例：自然資本各國差異很大62–Internationalexperience國際經驗Exlesofaccountingforassetdepreciation資產折舊核算案例7Capturingrentsfromnaturalresources–ExlefromNorway獲取自然資源的租金－挪威案例SignificantamountsofrentsgeneratedbyoilindustrybutwithhighfluctuationsForestsgeneratesubstantialrents–butrentsaccruetoprivatesector(whichisalsosubsidized)Oilandgas–Resourcerentsandtaxes(1985-1996)Forestry–Resourcerentsandtaxes(1985-1995)8Assessingthe“cost”ofequity–ExlefromNorway凈資產的費用評估－挪威案例Fisheries–Resourcerentsandsubsidies(1985-1995)NorwaychosetosupportsmallscalefisheriestopromoteregionaldevelopmentFisheriesdonotproducepositiverentsNorevenuecollectionHighlysubsidizedindustry9Reinvestingrentsintootherformsofcapital–ExlefromBotswana把租金再投向其他形式的資本－波斯瓦那案例Mineralrevenuesare35%ofGDP礦產收入占GDP的35％Governmenthasdeveloped“SustainableBudgetIndex“(SBI)政府開發了可持續預算指數SBImeasureshowmuchofthemineralrevenuesareconvertedtootherformsofassets(includingexpendituresoneducationandhealth)Governmentguideline:norevenuefromminingshouldbeusedforcurrentexpenditure103–TheWorldBank’sAdjustedNetSavings(ANS)Methodology世行經過調整的凈儲蓄方法Anindicatorforsustainability一個衡量可行性的指標11Adjustednetsavings(ANS)經過調整的凈儲蓄ANSmeasuresthe‘changeintotalwealth’overtimeSignandmagnitudeofANSarekeyindicatorsofsustainabilityDecompositionofANSenablesidentificationofpolicyrecommendationsNegativeANS(i.e.declineoftotalwealth)callsfor:ImprovefiscalandmonetarypolicyInvestmoreinhumancapitalChangepoliciesandencourageoverexploitationofnaturalresourcesImprovepoliciesthatencouragebetterpollutionmanagement12Adjustednetsavings經過調整的凈儲蓄

%ofGNI2002占國民總收入的百分比200213Empiricalevidence實例LowincomecountrieshavethelowestANSLowerincomelowersavingsLowerincomehigherdependenceonnaturalresourcesEastAsiaandpacifichavethehighestANS(becauseofveryhighgrossnationalsaving)MiddleEastandNorthAfricahavethelowestANS(becauseofoilextraction)14Implicationsforsustainabilityacrossregions可持續性的區域比較MiddleEastandAfricaareonanunsustainablepath–LatinAmericahaslowsavingsrates–EastAsiabenefitsfromhighNationalSavings(2002)15Starkdifferencesbetweentraditionalandadjustednetsavings傳統和調整后的凈儲蓄的差異Sub-SaharanAfrica-AdjustedNetSavingrevealsadifferentstoryfromtraditionalmeasuresofsaving164–AdjustednetsavingsinAsia亞洲調整后的凈儲蓄Evidenceandresearchneeds17Comparinggrossandadjustednetsavings儲蓄總量和調整后的凈儲蓄比較18Indonesia–naturalresourcesexploitationhasincreasedwiththecrisis印度尼西亞－自然資源的開發已經增加危機19Malaysia–educationexpenditureisanimportantpartofinvestments馬來西亞－教育是投資的重要部分20China–asuccessfulstorybutwithmoretolearn中國－一個成功的故事但仍有很多需要學習215–Lookingahead未來Challengesandopportunities挑戰與機遇22Challenges挑戰EnvironmentalaccountsaremostlyusedinindustrializedcountriesAssetaccountsareseldomusedtoassesssustainabilitySustainabilitycanonlybemeasuredifallassetsareincluded(e.g.needtodomoreworkonsoilerosion,groundwater,fisheries)ControversyovermeasurementofmonetaryvalueshasmadeitmoredifficulttoattractpolicymakersInternationalcomparisonsareimportantbutmethodologiesdifferwidelyacrosscountries(exceptANS)23OpportunitiesforChina中國的機遇HighpotentialtogobeyondcurrentassetaccountingtoanalyzenationallyrelevantissuesOngoingeffortson‘costofenvironmentaldegradation’canbeexploitedforimprovedassetaccountingUseresearchresultsonlocalairandwaterpollutionUseinformationonsoilerosionAccesstointernationalexperienceandexlestomultilateralinstitutions24Concludingremarks“Greening”nationalaccountsisanimportantsteptowardmeasuringsustainabilityandinformingpolicymakingAlsoimportantistofocusonthequ