1、state and trends of the Washi ngton DC, June 2011 2011state and trends of the 2011 En vir onment Departme nt This report was prepared by aWorld Bank team compris ing of Nicholas Lin acre, Alexa ndre Kossoy and Philippe Ambrosi, withimportant contributions from Manelle A?t Sahlia, Veronique Bishop, B

2、eno? Bosquet, Christophe deGouvello, Taisei Matsuki and Mon ali Ran ade.2 | State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2011 New Approach for the 2011 Report With the goal ofprovid ing a comprehe nsive discussi on of the issues that most affected the carb on market in 2010, theauthors of last years report

3、 have restructured State andTrends of the Carbon Market for 2011. The report still provides an overview of the size and reach of thecarb on markets, as well as the evoluti on of the Kyoto flexibility mecha ni sms, and offers pote ntialsupply/dema nd sce narios for coming years. However, it no Ion ge

4、r in cludes a detailed breakdow n ofcarb on tran sacti ons, as in previous years.In stead, the report provides a more in-depth an alytical discussi on of the regulatio n and policy issues thatwill guide future carb on market developme nt. The findings and opinions expressed in this report are thesol

5、e resp on sibility of the authors and should not be cited without permissi on. They do not n ecessarilyreflect the views of the World Bank Group, its Executive Directors, the coun tries they represe nt or of anyof the participa nts in the carb on funds or facilities man aged by the World Bank. The W

6、orld Bank does notguarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. This report is not intended to form the basis of aninvestment decision. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other in formati on show n in this workdo not imply any judgme nt on the part of The World Bank concerning th

7、e legal status of any territory or theen dorseme nt or accepta nee of such bou ndaries. Section 1 photo credit: Ja n Goli nski / UNFCCC Section 2 photo credit: Veer In corporated Sectio n 3 photo credit: Veer In corporated Secti on 4 photo credit:Dreamstime LLC Secti on 2 photo credit: Veer In corpo

8、rated Desig n: Studio Grafik Printing: WestlandPrintersState and Trends of the Carbo n Market 2011 | 3 Ackn owledgeme nts The report ben efitted greatlyfrom colleagues in the carb on market who provided their writte n con tributi ons and perspectives: OlgaChristyakova, Martin Lawless, and Damie n Me

9、adows. We wish to exte nd our gratitude to those whooffered their cooperatio n and in sights duri ng the elaborati on of this report: Edw in Aalders, Schwa nBadirou Gafari, Ellysar Baroudy, Jean-Jacques Barberis, Fraraffe Beaurain, Luca Bertali, Agn seBiscaglia, Martina Bosi, Ana Bucher, Marcos Cast

10、ro, Lance Coogan, Isabelle Curien, Keith Davis, KarenDegouve de Nun cques, Eduardo Dopazo, Jas on Dunn, Sa?a Eichberger, Emmanuel Fages, Laura Fidao,Greger Flodin, James Foster, Javier Freire Coloma, Marti n Fren ch, Pranab Ghosh, Matthew Gray, PierreGuig on, Isabel Hagbri nk, Katheri ne Hamilt on,

11、Henrik Hasselk nippe, Carina Heimdal, Andrew Howard,Robert M. Hunt, Daigo Koga, Werner Korn exl, Ganna Korniyen ko, Beno? Leguet, Gautier Le Maux, MarkLewis, Zijun Li, Peter Lloyd, Thomas Marcello, Allison McManus, Rachel Mountain, Akiko Nishimae, JohnO Brien, Klaus Oppermann, Moll-SPaney, Vicky Pol

12、lard, Leila Pourark in, Neeraj Prasad, Brice J. M.Ques nel, David Rapin, Heike Reichelt, Ren aud Scard ina, Kai-Uwe Bara ni Schmidt, GuidoSchmidt-Traub, Chandra Shekhar Sin ha, Trevor Sikorski, Milo Sjardi n, Yvon Sli nge nberg, Sara Stahl,An dy Stone, Aurelie n Tign ol, Sarah Un derwood, Laure nt V

13、aliergue, Joh n Virgoe, Alessa ndro Vitelli,George Waldburg, Xuema n Wang, Vikram Widge, Yevge n Yesyrke nov, Peter Zapfel, Ivan Zelenko,Elizabeth Zelljadt. We would also like to thank all of those who took time to respond to the market survey.Without your responses the report would be less than it

14、is. Fin ally, we want to tha nk the many marketparticipa nts struggli ng to make a differe nce on a critical global issue. The State and Trends of theCarbon Market 2011 received finan cial support from the CF-Assist Program, man aged by the WorldBank In stitute (WBI.4 | State and Trends of the Carbo

15、n Market 2011List of Abbreviati ons and AcronymsAAU Assig ned Amou nt Un itAAUPA AAU Purchase Agreeme ntAB 32 Global Warmi ng Solutio nsAct of 2006 Assembly Bill 32ACR American Carbo n RegistryADB Asian Development BankAfDB AfricanDevelopment BankAMF Autorit des MaJch seFi nan ciersAWG-KP Ad Hoc Wor

16、ki ng Group on FurtherCommitme nts for Annex I Parties un der the Kyoto ProtocolAWG-LCA Ad Hoc Worki ng Group on Lo ng-term Collaborative Actio nCAPEX Capital ExpendituresCARB California Air Resources Board CAR Climate Actio n ReserveCCP cen tral counterpartiesCCS Carbon Capture and StorageCCX Chica

17、go Climate Excha ngeCDM Clea n Developme ntMecha nismCER Certified Emissi on Reducti on CFL Compact Fluoresce nt LampCFTC CommoditiesFuture Trading Commissi onCH 4 Metha neCMM Coal Mine Metha neCMP Conferen ce of the Partiesserv ing as the Meeti ng of the Parties to the Kyoto ProtocolCPF Carbon Part

18、 nership FacilityCO 2 Carbon Dioxide CO 2e Carbo n Dioxide Equivale ntCOP Conferen ce of the PartiesCPA CDM ProgrammeActivityCPRS Carbo n Pollution Reduction SchemeCP-1 First Commitment Period under the KyotoProtocolCRE Commission de rgulation deel energie CRT Climate Reserve TonneDNA DesignatedNati

19、onal AuthorityDOE Desig nated Operati onal En tityEB Executive Board of the CDMEBRD Europea nBank for Recon struct ion and Developme ntEC Europea n Commissi onECX Europea n Climate ExchangeEE En ergy Efficie ncyEIT Economy in Tran sitio nEITE Emissio n-in te nsive. Trade-exposed EREmissi on Reduct i

20、on ERPA Emissio n Reducti on Purchase Agreeme ntERU Emissio n Reducti on UnitESC En ergy Savings CertificateESS En ergy Savings SchemeETS Emissi ons Trading Scheme EUEuropea n Un io nEUA Europea n Union Allowa neeEU ETS Europea n Union Emissi ons Tradi ng SchemeEURIBOR Euro In terba nk Offered RateF

21、SBFinancial Stability BoardGDP Gross Domestic ProductGGAS New South Wales Gree nhouse GasReducti on SchemeGHG Gree nhouse GasGIS Gree n Inv estme nt SchemeHFC HydrochlorofluorocarbonIFC Intern ati onal FinanceCorporationlEA International Energy AgencylFI International Financial InstitutionlFRS Inter

22、nationalFinancial Reporting StandardlMF International Monetary FundIRR Internal Rate of ReturnJ-VETS Japan-Volu ntary Emissi ons Tradi ng SchemeJI Joint Impleme ntati onJ ISC Joint Impleme ntatio nSupervisory CommitteeKM Kyoto Mecha ni smLBFR Law on Banking and Finan cial Regulati onLDCLeast Develop

23、ed Coun tryLEDS Low Emissi on Developme nt StrategieslCER Lon g-term CertifiedEmissio n Reducti on LFG Lan dfill GasLoA Letter of ApprovalLRET Large-scale Ren ewable En ergyTargetLULUCF Land Use, Land Use Change and ForestryMAD Market Abuse DirectiveMCCF MultilateralCarbo n Credit Fun dMDB Multilate

24、ral Developme nt Ban kMiFiD Markets in Finan cial In strume ntsDirectiveMOP Meeti ng of the Parties MRET Man datory Ren ewable En ergy TargetMRV Measureme nt.Report ing and Verificatio nN AMA Natio nally Appropriate Mitigatio n Actio nNCCP Natio nal Climate Change PolicyNDRC Natio nal Developme nt a

25、nd Reform Commissi on N 20 Nitrous OxideNAP Natio nalAllocation Pla nNPV Net Prese nt ValueNZ ETS New Zeala nd Emissi ons Tradi ng SchemeNZU NewZeala nd Un itOECD Orga ni zati on for Econo mic Co-operati on and Developme ntOTC Over-the-Co unterpCER Primary Certified Emissio n Reductio nPDD Project D

26、esig n Docume ntPFC Perfluorocarb onPIN Project Idea NotePMR Part nership for Market Read in essPoA CDM Programme of ActivitiesState and Trends of the Carbon Market 2011 | 5POI Proof of Ide ntityPP Project Participa ntR&D Research and Developme ntRE Ren ewable EnergyREC Ren ewable En ergy Certif

27、icateREDD Reduc ing Emissi ons from Deforestatio n and ForestDegradati on REDD+ Exte nds REDD by in cludi ng susta in able forest man ageme nt, con servati on offorests, and enhan ceme nt of carb on si nks.REMIT Regulati on on En ergy Markets In tegrity and Transpare ncyRET Ren ewable En ergy Target

28、RGGI Regio nal Gree nhouse Gas In itiativeRMU Removal UnitsCER Seco ndary Certified Emissi on Reductio nSCF Strategic Climate Fun dSEI Sustai nable En ergy InitiativeSF 6Sulfur HexafluorideSME Small and Medium-size En terpriseSRES Small-scale Ren ewable En ergy SchemetCO 2 Ton of Carbon DioxidetCO 2

29、e Ton of Carbon Dioxide Equivale nttCER Temporary Certified Emissio n Reducti onUN Un ited Natio nsUNEP Uni ted Natio ns En viro nment ProgrammeUNFCCC Un ited Natio nsFramework Conven ti on on Climate Change VAT Value-added TaxVCS Vol un tary Carbo n Sta ndardVCU Verified Carbo n UnitsVER Verified E

30、missi on Reductio nWB World BankWCI Wester n Climate In itiativeWTI West Texas In termediateWTO World Trade Orga ni zati onState and Trends of the Carbon Market 2011 | 7Con te ntsAckno wledgeme nts 3Overview 9ln troductio n 111. I nternatio nal Developme ntCancunConference and the Post-2012 Environm

31、ent 13 1.1 Improvements to the Clean Developme nt Mecha nismand Con ti nuing Support for Market Mecha ni sms14 1.2 Climate Finance and the Establishment of the Green Climate Fund 16 1.3 Recog niti on ofDevelop ing Country Con tributi ons to Mitigati on and a BetterReprese ntati on of Forestry-relate

32、d Activities 16 1.4 Bey ond Can cuMarket Percepti ons 17 1.5 Conclusi ons182. Domestic Policy Developme ntA Story of Fragme ntation 21 2.1 Ann ex I Coun tries22 2.2 No n-Annex I Cou ntries33 2.3 Li nki ng Emissi ons Trad ing Schemes 36 2.4 Con clusi ons373. How Market Participa nts Tran sacRisk and

33、Regulati on39 3.1 The Changing Regulatory Lan dscapThe Impact of Finan cial Market Reforms 39 3.2Over-the-cou nter MarkeRegulation is Comi ng Dow n the Pike 42 3.3 Primary Issua neeMarkeEmissio n Allowa nee Auctio ns42 3.4 Secon dary MarketCon trolli ng Risk and En suri ng Tran spare ncy and Acco un

34、 tability 433.5 Con clusi ons454. Carbon and Climate Finance47 4.1 Kyoto MarketA post-2012 Faci ng Low Dema nd and Low Supply 47 4.1.1 CERsWhat Didor Did Not Happen in 2010? 48 4.1.2 ERUs- What Lies Ahead? 51 4.1.3 AAUsRespo nding to the Lackof Dema nd 52 4.2 Vol un tary Markets53 4.3 Mobiliz ing Lo

35、w-carb on In vestme ntBey ond Carbon Reve nue Streams 55 4.4 New AssetClasses Comi ng to the Market 57 4.4.1 REDD and REDD+ 57 4.4.2 Sustai nable Land ManagemenAgricultural Soil Carbon 59 4.5 Con clusi ons595. Outlook - Dema nd and Supply Bala nee 61 5.1 Dema nd and Supply Bala nee Through to 2012 6

36、15.1.1 Sovereig n Dema nd 61 5.1.2 Private Sector Dema nd 63 5.1.3 Supply Through to 2012 64 5.1.4Residual Deman136 MtCO2e 64 5.2 Will there be Eno ugh Emissi on Reduct ions Gen erated in Developing Coun tries After 2012? 655.3 Con clusi ons 68Methodology70Appe ndix 1. Assumpti ons for Estimates of

37、Pote ntial Dema nd for Offsets from nonAnnex I Coun tries 71Glossary738 | State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2011BoxesBox 1. The Europea n Un io n s Approach to Intern atio nal Credits 15Box 2. NorthAmerica n Offset Prices31Box 3. Brief History of Carbon Market Fraud in the EU ETS 40Box 4. A Poin

38、t ofView on the EU ETS 41Box 5. Voluntary Markets54FiguresFigure 1. Carbon Market at a Glanee. Market Values, 2000 9Figure 2.Resp ondents Views on a Future Multilateral Framework 18Figure 3. RGGI ForecastEmissi ons33TablesTable 1. Carbon Market at a Glanee. Market Values, 200410 9Table 2. CurrentSta

39、te Climate Change Policies in Australia 23Table 3. Current Province Climate ChangePolicies in Canada 23Table 4. EU ETS Phase II Auctions 25Table 5. Aviation DirectiveSummary 27Table 6. Some Examples of U.K. Compleme ntary Measures 28Table 7. Curre nt ClimateChange Policies in Japa n 29Table 8. Offse

40、t Supply and Dema nd Forecast for Califor nia -and-Caupe31Table 9. Current U.S. State and Regi onalClimate Change Policy in North America 32Table 10. Current Trading Platforms in China 35Table 11.Voluntary Market Prices and Volumes 54Table 12. Supply and Dema nd in Perspective-Kyoto Market Balanee,

41、2008-2 62Table 13. Pote ntial Dema nd, Co ntracted Supply, and Residual Dema nd, 200812 65Table14. Seen arios of Pote ntial Dema nd for Offsets Gen erated in non-Ann ex I Cou ntries 201320 (MtCO2e.66Table 15. Estimates of Potential Supply Under the CDM and JI up to 2020 (MtCO2e 67State and Trends of

42、 the Carbon Market 2011 | 9OverviewHow Long Can a MarkeT Be in Tran SiTio n?After five con secutive years of robust growth, the total value of the global carb on market stalled at$142 billion (see Figure 1.1,2 Suffering from the lack of post-2012 regulatory clarity, the value of the primaryClea n De

43、velopme nt Mecha nism (CDM market fell by double-digits for the third year in a row, ending lowerthan it was in 2005, the first year of the Kyoto Protocol. The Assig ned Amount Un it (AAU market, whichgrew in 2009 with strong sov-ereig n support, shra nk as well in 2010. Fin ally, the market that ha

44、d grow nmost in 2009 allowa nces un der the U.S. Regi onal Gree nhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI saw that years gains erased in 2010. As these segments declined, the dominance of the Europea n Union Allowa nces(EUAs market became more pronoun ced tha n ever. EUAs acco un ted for 84 perce nt of global car

45、b onmarket value in 2010. With the value of the sec on dary CDM tran sact ions take n into acco unt, the shareof the carb on market primar-ily driven by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS rose to 97 perce nt,dwarfi ng the rema iningsegments of the market (see Table 1.Sec on dary CDMOther Offset

46、sPrimary CDMOther Allowa ncesEU ETS Allowa ncesC a r b o n M a r k e t E v o l u t i o n ($ b i l li o nFigure 1. Carbo n Market at a gla nee. Market Values, 2000EU ETS Other Primary CDMSecon dary Other Offsets2Q0&Oj11.03ODG*0.40.331.22ODT49.10.3745.50.863,0sooa100.5L06 526.30

47、.6iasui2009110.54.32,71Z50,7143,70057.e0J260.20.311.0Total 201018.31.2141.9Sources: World Bank, Thoms on Reuters Point Carbon, Bloomberg New En ergyFinance and Ecosystem MarketplaceNote: Numbers may not add up due to rounding.Table 1. Carbo n Market at a gla nee. Market Values, 2000Source

48、s: World Bank, Thoms on Reuters Point Carbon, Bloomberg New En ergyFinan ce, and Ecosystem Marketplace1. For details on the methodology refer to the Methodology Section at the end of the report.2. Still, carb on volumes traded con tracted by over 10 perce nt duri ng the same period as prices decline

49、d in some markets.10 | State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2011The global carb on market stag nated eve n as the global economy stabilized and bega n a ten tativerecovery in 2010. The carb on market growth halted at a particu-larly in opport une time: 2010 proved to bethe hottest on record,3 while

50、 emissi on levels continued their seem-ingly inexorable rise.4 In the end,however, the year may be remembered most for the political opport un ities that arose, yet were ultimatelyfailed to materialize.In the Un ited States, there was not eno ugh sup-port to pass federal cap-a nd-trade legislation.

51、TheJapanese Basic Act on Global Warming, whichpassed in the Diets lower house, was halted when the government lost control of the upper house afew mon ths later. Australias Sen ate failed to pass the Carbon Polluti onReduction Scheme and Australias goveutmenu ently chose to freeze its plans for a do

52、mesticcap-andtrade scheme. Even the years rare good news, namely the Republic of Koreas adoption of theFramework Act on Low Carbon Green Growth, turned sour whe n the gover nment, facing internal opposition, decided in early 2011 to delay the implementation of its cap-and-trade scheme until 2015. At

53、 the globalregulatory level, in mid-2010 the CDM Executive Board temporarily halted issua nee ofCertified Emissi on Reduct ions (CERs from hydro-fluorocarb on (HFC-23 projects over baseli necon-cerns. As concerns revealed not to be substa ntiated, issua nee resumed at the end of the year. Nonetheles

54、s, the Europea n Commissio n soon thereafter proposed qualitative restrictio n in the EU ETS ofcarb on off-sets related to CDM in dustrial gas projects. The pro-posal was adopted by the Europea nMember States, which in January 2011 con firmed the ban of CERs from HFC and n itrous oxide (N2Oadipic ac

55、id projects starti ng, in 2013.Some of the most no table eve nts in 2010 and early 2011 were unfortun ately related to frameworkloop-holes and criminal activities directed against the EU ETS. In addition to thecarousel -addedetax(VAT fraud that surfaced in 2009,5 the last 18 mon thswitnessed the sal

56、e of recycled CERs, phish-ing trimpts on Germany s national registries and a series ofsubseque nt cyber-thefts that un derm ined the Europea n market,6 highlight ing security short-co mingsand in creas ing the urge ncy of stakeholderspleas tostre ngthe n in frastructure.Nevertheless, there were a fe

57、w reas ons for guarded optimism in2010. Europe started to craft its road-map for movi ng toward a competitive low-carb on economy in 2050.Also, while the Cope nhage n cli-mate summit in 2009 failed to meet expectati ons, progress was achievedduri ng the Conference of the Parties in Cancun last Decem

58、ber. Such progress was welcomed by themarket and helped to restore some con fide nce in UN n egotiati ons on climate cha nge. Still, as Partiescon ti nue their deliberati on s,7 much remai ns to be done. Differe nces among major emit-ters regard ingdomestic priorities, approaches andambiti on will n

59、 eed to be resolved before a robustand susta in able intern ati onal agreeme nt can emerge.While the intern ati onalregulatory en vir onment re-ma ins un certa in, n ati onal and local in itiatives have no ticeably picked up andmay offer the pote ntial to collectively overcome the intern ati onal re

60、gulatory gap. The most prominent ofthese initiatives is California-and-trades cap scheme,which is expected to begi n op-erati ng in 2012. Other low-carb on in itiatives, in clud-i ng domestic emission reducti on targets, clea n en ergy certificate programs, volun tary and pre-complia nee do-mestic offsettra