1、全球資產(chǎn)膨脹與資產(chǎn)評估業(yè)的挑戰(zhàn)Global Asset Inflation and Challenge for The Valuation Profession殷劍峰Yin Jianfeng中國社科院金融所，所長助理IFB of CASS, Assistant General Director危機前的全球資產(chǎn)膨脹Global Asset Inflation Before Crisis在這次全球危機前，在這次全球危機前，主要經(jīng)濟體金融資產(chǎn)主要經(jīng)濟體金融資產(chǎn)膨脹的速度遠快于膨脹的速度遠快于GDP增長率增長率Before the global crisis we are in, financial

2、assets in major developed countries grows at a striking higher speed than the GDP growth. Financial Asset/GDP金融發(fā)展越來越來脫離實體經(jīng)濟Financial Development Is Deviating from What Real Economy Really Needs以美國為例，在各類金融工具以美國為例，在各類金融工具（不含衍生品）中，為金融活（不含衍生品）中，為金融活動服務的比重不斷上升，危機動服務的比重不斷上升，危機前已經(jīng)達到了前已經(jīng)達到了50。For instance,

3、in total amount of financial products (excluding derivatives) of U.S., the ratio of products offering service for the financial industry increases quickly and reaches to 50% before crisis.Shares of financial products with different functions in total amount金融資產(chǎn)膨脹：房地產(chǎn)泡沫Asset Inflation: Housing Market

4、 Bubble以美國居民資產(chǎn)結(jié)構為例，隨著房價攀升，從2000年開始，有形資產(chǎn)增長快于金融資產(chǎn)，其占比在2005年達到了近40。Because of housing price bubble, the ratio of tangible asset to total assets of U.S. household increases from 30% in 2000 to 40% in 2005.金融資產(chǎn)膨脹：金融股泡沫Asset Inflation: Financial Stock Bubble 受房地產(chǎn)市場的推動，美國金受房地產(chǎn)市場的推動，美國金融股票的市值與非金融股票市融股票的市值與非

5、金融股票市值的比重從值的比重從2001年的年的15上上升到升到2006年的年的45。Housing bubble contributes significant proceeds to U.S. financial corporations and boosts their stock prices. The ratio of market value of financial corporations to non-financial ones increases from 15% in 2001 to 45% in 2006. 金融資產(chǎn)膨脹：證券化泡沫Asset Inflation: Se

6、curitization Bubble美國 “私營”證券資產(chǎn)占比由80年代的0上升到2007年的12，資產(chǎn)總額達到了4萬5千億美元。In U.S, non-GSE securitization develops quickly since 1980s, and amounts to 12% of total securitization market in 2007.金融資產(chǎn)膨脹促成了美國居民的消費熱潮Asset Inflation Promotes Consumption Boom in U.S. Household Sector. 美國居民部門的儲蓄率從80年代初的10左右持續(xù)下降到200

7、6年的接近0；同時，儲蓄額也從90年代的3500億美元持續(xù)，在有些季度甚至是負儲蓄。Saving rate of U.S. household decreased to nearly zero in 2006.金融資產(chǎn)膨脹刺激了銀行消費信貸Asset Inflation Stimulates Bank Loan to Household.對居民的貸款和對居民的住宅按揭貸款占美國銀行全部貸款的比重上升到2006年的67和55。In total U.S. bank loan, the ratio of household loan and mortgage increased to 67% and

8、 55% in 2006.經(jīng)濟增長儲蓄率下降消費率提高資產(chǎn)價格上漲全球經(jīng)濟增長美元需求增加信貸便利性（美元創(chuàng)造）財富效應金融機構資產(chǎn)負債表改善以美國為中心的世界經(jīng)濟增長模式以美國為中心的世界經(jīng)濟增長模式 Global Economic Growth Model關于資產(chǎn)膨脹和危機的認識Conclusions about Asset Inflation and Crisis 美聯(lián)儲反周期的貨幣政策 Anti-Business Cycle style of Monetary Policy of FED 自由放任的金融監(jiān)管政策 Laissez-Faire Financial Regulation Sy

9、stem 評級機構的責任：模型風險、道德風險 The Problems of Rating Agency: Model Risk, Moral Risk 共舞的中國股市和房市In China, Real Estate Market Is Dancing with Stock Market as well. 自2003年以來，中國的房屋銷售價格、土地交易價格與股市市盈率的變化高度相關。In China, housing price and land price has a high correlation with PE ratio of stock market since 2003.中國似乎

10、也正在經(jīng)歷資產(chǎn)膨脹的過程China Is Undergoing an Underlying Process of Asset Inflation and Possible Asset Bubble.如果假設2002年底中國住房和土地的收益率為10，那么，今天則分別只有1.9和4.5。If we assume the returns in housing and land market are 10% at the end of 2002, then they are only 1.9 and 4.5 separately today. 唯一的區(qū)別：中國的高儲蓄率The Only Differe

11、nce: Higher Saving Rate in China Comparing with U.S.前四大經(jīng)濟體的儲蓄率和投資率（）前四大經(jīng)濟體的儲蓄率和投資率（）美國美國日本日本德國德國中國中國儲蓄儲蓄率率投資投資率率儲蓄儲蓄率率投資投資率率儲蓄儲蓄率率投資投資率率儲蓄儲蓄率率投資投資率率1980年代年代18.420.331.929.820.321.934.935.21990年代年代17.419.029.928.322.622.139.837.82001200814.118.924.923.623.017.945.940.9政策建議Suggestions 關于宏觀經(jīng)濟政策的建議：既要穩(wěn)定，又不要泡沫。 Suggestion f