1、本文格式為word版，下載可任意編輯可再生柴油：仔細考察項目回報和風險 equit y r es ea r ch a mer ic a s | u nit ed s ta tes in thi s r epor t w e t a k e a c loser loo k a t the 8 r enew a ble diesel pr oje ct s a nnounced by u s independent r ef iner s . we a r e ca lc ula ti ng eb it da ( w it h a nd without b t c ) , i rr, cost o

2、 f c a pa ci ty a ddit ions ( $ /g a l) a nd br ea k even c a r bon pr ic e needed to k eep pr oj ect s a bove 10 % ir r . we a r e a lso hig hli g hti n g str eng ths a nd wea k nes s e s of i ndividua l pr ojec ts. th e d e b at e : depen ding upon how bulli s h or bea r ish a n i nves tor i s on

3、ca r bon pr ic in g , w e would cl a ss if y t hem a s : 1 ) c a r bon pr ic e opt imist - be li eves i n wide s pr ea d l cf s a dopti on tha t w ill s uppor t hig he r c a r bon p r i ces; 2 ) pr a g m a ti s t beli eves c a r bon pr ic es will move up in the long e r ter m but sees nea r - ter m

4、vola ti li ty i f a ll a nnounced ca pa ci ty a ddit ions ( 2.6 b n g a l/ y r ) c om e onl ine; 3 ) b t c opt i mist - beli eves r enew a bles is the f utur e , but stil l bea r ish on c a r bon pr ic in g , a nd see s b t c g ett ing ex tended pa s t 2022 a s c ong r es s wa nts to enco ur a g e u

5、s e of l ow e r c a r bon f uels ; a nd 4 ) pes s imist bea r ish on c a r bon pr ic es a nd beli eves r enew a ble tr a de i s imo 2021 ve r s ion 2.0 . s inc e we a r e i n ea r ly sta g es , w e ex pect the ca r bon pr ic e optimist to be th e m os t eng a g ing a nd dr ive the r e new a bles tr

6、ade. ou r p r e feren c e : while m ultipl e pr ojec ts ha ve been a nnounced, w e ha ve a str ong pr ef er en ce f o r pr o jects tha t a r e u s ing f eeds toc k with l ow er c a r bon i ntensity ( c i) . v l o s s t. c ha r les a nd por t a r thur ca n del iv er g ood r etur ns even without b t c

7、 or i n a n envir onment w her e c a r bon pr ic es d r op t o $120 /t on. it does cost mo r e t o c on s tr uct pr oje ct s with l ow er c i f eeds toc k , but a pr ojec t using f eed with c i of 25 ha ve a n a lmos t $0.75 / g a l g r os s m a r g in a dvanta g e over a pr ojec t us ing c i of 53.

8、86 . put a nother w a y , a pr ojec t w it h c i o f 25 ha s a n a lmos t $50 - $60 /t on c a r bon pr ic in g a dvanta g e over a hi g her c i p r ojec t. a l ow er c i pr ojec t ca n withstand a much w ea k er ca r bon pr ic e envir onment vs. hig her c i f eed pr ojec t . o n pa per , both ma r t

9、i nez ( ir r 42 % ) a nd r odeo ( ir r 24 % ) conver s ion s look a tt r a ct ive, but g iven the pr o x imity of t he t w o r e f ine r ies , w e ex pect competit ion f o r f eeds toc k a s well as pr oduct pl a cement. a t thi s sta g e , ma r ti nez f u ll conver s io n ( pha s e 1 2022 s ta r tu

10、p ) ha s a f ir s t - m over a dvanta g e over r odeo f ull conve r s ion ( 2024 s ta r tup ) . u p si d e and ri sks: if l cf s be c om es a na ti ona l m a nda te, c a r bon pr ic es will move up ( $220 - $250 /t on) a nd l cf s c r e dit s will pr ic e hi g her , r a ising i rr of a ll pr ojec ts

11、. o n t he other ha nd i f l cf s d o e s n o t g e t w ider a dopti on out s ide of c a li f o r nia a nd a ll a nnounced ca pa ci ty ex pa ns ions come onli ne, ca r bon c r edit ba nk would buil d r a pidl y a nd c a r bon pr ic es would dr op , puttin g ec onom ic s of ma ny pr ojec ts in s ing

12、le di g it s ( ir r bel ow 10 % ) . c a li f or nia diesel dema nd i s f la t; r ef ine r ies c onver ti ng to r enew a bl e di es el f a ci li ty ( m a r ti nez a nd s a n f r a n ) a r e g oing to pr oduce diesel a t the ex pense of g a s oli ne. even tua l ly , c a li f o r nia s diesel m a r k e

13、t w ill become over s uppli ed a nd g a s oli ne under s uppli ed ( bull i s h pb f ) . co n c l u sio n : wi th thi s ma g nit ud e of c a pa ci ty a nnouncem ents, r e f iner s a r e ma k ing a n implic it a ss um pti on tha t the d em ocr a ti c pr es ident ia l ca ndida te w ill ta k e t he w hi

14、t e h ouse i n n ov em ber . t his w ill s ig nif ic a ntl y i ncr ea s e t he poss ibi li ty o f l cf s b ecoming a na ti ona l m a nda te , or a t le a s t a m or e r a pid a dopti on a cr os s m ultipl e s t a tes , pus hing up ca r bon pr ic es , r a ising eb it da a nd ir r pr oje ct io ns . in

15、 the event p r es ident tr ump g ets r e - ele cted , s om e of these pr ojec ts coul d be de lay ed or c a ncel led. rese ar c h an aly sts ma n a v g up ta 212 325 6617 m a nav.gupta c redit - s uis s e. c om d is closu re ap p e nd ix at th e b ack o f th is rep o rt conta in s imp o rt ant d is

16、closu re s , analyst ce rt ifications, le g al e ntity d is closu re and th e s ta tu s o f non - u s analysts. u s discl os ur e : c r edit s uiss e does a nd s eek s to do business w it h compa nies cover ed in it s r e s ea r ch r epor ts. a s a r es ult , inve s tor s s hould be a w a r e tha t

17、the f ir m m a y ha ve a conf li ct of int e r e s t tha t coul d renewa ble diesel cl oser loo k a t r eturn s and risk s for proje c ts o il amp; ga s r ef ini ng amp; m a r k eti n g | ex per t ins ig h ts t a ble of cont en ts ex ecut ive s umm a r y . 3 s umm a r y of r etur ns 3 wha t would m

18、a k e us m or e b ull ish? 5 wha t would m a k e us b ea r i s h ? 6 b r ea k even a na ly s is . 8 r enew a bles t r a de t he deba te . 9 a c loser l ook a t individua l pr ojec ts . 10 hfc a r tesia a nd c h eyenne 10 vl o s t. c ha r les e x pa ns ion 13 vl o por t a r thur 15 ps x r odeo f ul l

19、 c onver s ion 17 mpc ma r ti nez f ul l c onver s ion 19 ps x r odeo di es el hy d r ot r ea ter pr ojec t 21 c vi wy nnewood hy dr o cr a ck er pr ojec t 23 a ppendix . 25 how t o c a lc ula te gr os s m a r g in f or i ndividua l pr oje ct s 25 r ene w a ble diesel vs. b io - diesel 27 700 600 50

20、0 400 300 200 100 0 mpc martinez vlo st. charles vlo port arthur psx rodeo hfc artesia amp; conversion converison cheyenne without btc ext. with btc ext. executiv e summ a r y sum mary of r et ur ns in thi s r epor t w e t a k e a c loser loo k a t the 8 r enew a ble diesel pr oje ct s a nnounced by

21、 independent r ef iner s . we a r e ca lc ula ti ng eb it da upside ( w it h a nd without b t c ) , i rr, cost o f ca pa ci ty a ddit ions a nd br ea k even c a r bon pr ic e needed t o k eep pr o jec t ir rs a bove 10 % . we a r e a lso hig hli g hti n g str en g ths a nd wea k nes s es of i ndivid

22、ua l pr ojec ts. e b itda o ur ba s e c a s e nor m a li zed eb it d a estima tes a r e c a lc ula te d on cur r ent ca r bon p r ic es of $196 /t on. how ever , in indi vidu a l pr ojec ti on secti on we ha ve r un s ens it ivit ies on eb it da ba s ed on c a r bon pr ic es r a ng e of $140 - $240

23、/t on. o ur nor m a li zed eb it da estima tes a s show n i n f ig . 1 e x cl ude a ny bene f it o f b t c . we ha ve r un scena r io a na ly s is on a ll pr ojec ts to ca lc ula te eb it da a ss um ing b t c does g et s ex tended f or 5 y ea r s post 2022 , but a l ow er c r edit benef it of $0.50

24、/ g a l vs . cur r ent $1 /g a l. figu r e 1 : e b itda - m ajo r p r o j e c t s ($m ) figu r e 2 : e b itda - s mal l e r c o n v e r sio n p r o j e c t s ($m ) sourc e: c om pa ny da t a , c redit suis s e es t im a t es (* vl o e b i t da is net ) sourc e: c om pa ny da t a , c redit suis s e e

25、s t im a t es irr pr ojec ts that s do come onli ne b ef or e y ea r end 2022 , w ill be see a n upl if t in ir r a s t hey a r e g ett ing f ull bene f it o f b t c o f $1 / g a l. o ur ba s e c a s e ir r es ti m a tes a r e c a lc ulated on c ur r ent ca r bon pr ic es o f $196 / ton. ho w ever ,

26、 in indi vidua l pr oje ct ion s ec ti on w e ha ve r un sens it ivit ies on eb it da ba s ed on ca r bon pr ic es r a ng e of $140 - $240 / ton. w e ha ve r un scena r io a na ly s is on a ll pr ojec ts to ca lc ula te ir r a ss um ing b t c does g ets e x tended f o r 5 y ea r s post 2022 , but a

27、lower c r edit benef it o f $0.50 / g a l vs . cur r ent $1 / g a l. without btc ext. with btc ext. cvi wynewood hydrocracker psx san fran hydrotreater 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 ebitda ($m) ebitda ($m) 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% mpc martinez vlo st. charles vlo port arthur psx rodeo hfc artesia amp; conversion

28、converison cheyenne without btc ext. with btc ext. 150% 100% 50% 0% psx san fran hydrotreater cvi wynewood hydrocracker without btc ext. 42% with btc ext. irr (%) irr (%) figu r e 3 : ir r ( % ) m ajo r p r o j e c t s 80% figu r e 4 : ir r ( % ) s mal l e r c o n v e r sio n p r o j e c t s 350% 70

29、% 300% 60% 250% 50% 200% sourc e: c om pa ny da t a , c redit suis s e es t im a t es sourc e: c om pa ny da t a , c redit suis s e es t im a t es co st o f ad d i n g n e w c ap ac i t y it does cost mor e t o c ons tr u ct pr ojec ts w it h l ow er c i f eeds toc k , but a pr ojec t us ing f eed w

30、ith c i of 25 ha s a n a lmos t $0.75 /g a l g r os s ma r g in a dvanta g e over a pr ojec t us ing c i o f 53.86 . putti ng a nother wa y , a pr oje ct with c i of 25 , ha s a n a lmos t $50 - $60 /t on c a r bon p r ic in g a dvanta g e over a hi g her c i pr o je ct . a l ow er c i f eeds toc k

31、p r ojec t i s l ik e a hi g h c omplex it y r ef ine r y while a hig he r c i f eeds to ck pr ojec t is li k e a l ow er c omplex it y r e f iner y . it will cost mor e t o buil d a mor e c omplex r ef ine r y but a c omplex r ef iner y will g ive you a l ot m or e f lex ibi li ty over a s imple r

32、ef ine r y . t hus it s not f a ir to compa r e t w o pr ojec ts one with c i of 25 a nd ot her with c i o f 50 or a bove on t his m et r ic s ( ca p a ci ty ex pa ns ion $ /g a l ) . how ever i t would be f a ir compa r e t w o pr ojec ts w it h sim il a r c i on t his m etr ic s . o ur a na ly s i

33、s indi ca tes tha t ma r ti nez conver s io n pr ojec t a nd pr o jects a t a r tesia a nd c hey enne ha ve a ver y s imila r c i. t hey a r e bot h p r ima r il y using soy bea n but a dding som e f lex ibi l it y ( 10 - 15 % ) t o r un lower c i f eeds toc k s of ta ll ow a nd i nedibl e c or n o

34、il . while m a r ti ne z conver s ion is a dding r enew a ble ca pa ci ty a t $0.97 / g a l , the new c a pa ci ty a t a r tesia a nd c hey enne is coming on li ne a t $3.38 / g a l. figu r e 5 : co s t o f cap ac i t y ad d iti o n ($/ g al ) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 sourc e: c om pa ny

35、da t a , c redit suis s e es t im a t es capacity expansion ($/gal) w hat would m ak e us m or e bull is h? 1. w i d e r ad o p ti o n o f l o w c ar b o n fu e l stand ar d s ac r o ss o t he r st at es. f oll ow ing t he ex a mple of c a li f o r nia , m or e a nd m or e states a cr os s t he na t

36、i on a r e c ons ider ing the development of t heir own low ca r bon f uel pr o g r a m s . we beli eve th e question is no long er i f t hey will i mplement simil a r pr og r a m s , it s w hen t hey will e m br a ce lower ca r bon f uel s ta nda r ds . o ther c ou ntr ies a r e a lso look ing t o

37、i mplement s imi la r pr og r a m s . t he c lea n f uel s ta nda r d pr o g r a m t ha t is being developed by env ir onment a nd c li m a te c ha ng e c a nada seek s 30 m illi on m t of c a r bon r eductions f r om t h e c ounty s ener g y economy by 2030 . i f c a nada does g o a hea d a nd i mplement c lea n f uel s ta nda r d pr og r a m , it will open up a bi g end m a r k et f or a ll r enew a ble diesel p r oducer s . 2. lo