13FINALTHOUGHTS最后的思考 36 FiveDebatesOverMacroeconomicPolicy宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的五個(gè)爭論問題 FiveDebatesoverMacroeconomicPolicy 1 Shouldmonetaryandfiscalpolicymakerstrytostabilizetheeconomy 2 Shouldmonetarypolicybemadebyruleratherthanbydiscretion 3 Shouldthecentralbankaimforzeroinflation 4 Shouldthegovernmentbalanceitsbudget 5 Shouldthetaxlawsbereformedtoencouragesaving 宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的五個(gè)爭論問題 1 貨幣與財(cái)政決策者應(yīng)該努力穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)嗎 2 貨幣政策應(yīng)該按規(guī)則還是相機(jī)抉擇 3 中央銀行應(yīng)該把零通貨膨脹作為目標(biāo)嗎 4 財(cái)政決策者應(yīng)該減少政府債務(wù)嗎 5 應(yīng)該為了鼓勵(lì)儲(chǔ)蓄而修改稅法嗎 Shouldmonetaryandfiscalpolicymakerstrytostabilizetheeconomy 貨幣與財(cái)政決策者應(yīng)該努力穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)嗎 Pro Policymakersshouldtrytostabilizetheeconomy Theeconomyisinherentlyunstable andleftonitsownwillfluctuate Policycanmanageaggregatedemandinordertooffsetthisinherentinstabilityandreducetheseverityofeconomicfluctuations 贊成 決策者應(yīng)該努力穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì) 經(jīng)濟(jì)是本質(zhì)上不穩(wěn)定的 如果放任不管 經(jīng)濟(jì)就傾向于發(fā)生波動(dòng) 政策可以管理總需求 目的是抵消這種內(nèi)在的不穩(wěn)定 降低經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的嚴(yán)重性 Pro Policymakersshouldtrytostabilizetheeconomy Thereisnoreasonforsocietytosufferthroughtheboomsandbustsofthebusinesscycle Monetaryandfiscalpolicycanstabilizeaggregatedemandand thereby productionandemployment 贊成 決策者應(yīng)該努力穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì) 沒有理由使社會(huì)受到經(jīng)濟(jì)周期高漲與低落的折磨 貨幣與財(cái)政政策可以穩(wěn)定總需求 從而穩(wěn)定生產(chǎn)和就業(yè) Con Policymakersshouldnottrytostabilizetheeconomy Monetarypolicyaffectstheeconomywithlongandunpredictablelagsbetweentheneedtoactandthetimethatittakesforthesepoliciestowork Manystudiesindicatethatchangesinmonetarypolicyhavelittleeffectonaggregatedemanduntilaboutsixmonthsafterthechangeismade 反對 決策者不應(yīng)該努力穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì) 在需要采取行動(dòng)到貨幣政策能發(fā)揮作用之間 貨幣政策對經(jīng)濟(jì)的作用要有一個(gè)相當(dāng)長而且不可預(yù)見的時(shí)滯 許多研究表明 在作出貨幣政策變動(dòng)的6個(gè)月之內(nèi) 這種變動(dòng)對總需求的影響很小 Con Policymakersshouldnottrytostabilizetheeconomy Fiscalpolicyworkswithalagbecauseofthelongpoliticalprocessthatgovernschangesinspendingandtaxes Itcantakeyearstopropose pass andimplementamajorchangeinfiscalpolicy 反對 決策者不應(yīng)該努力穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì) 財(cái)政政策的作用有時(shí)滯 是因?yàn)檎淖冎С雠c稅收是一個(gè)漫長的政治過程 提出 通過和實(shí)施一項(xiàng)重要的財(cái)政政策變動(dòng)需要好幾年的時(shí)間 Con Policymakersshouldnottrytostabilizetheeconomy Alltoooftenpolicymakerscaninadvertentlyexacerbateratherthanmitigatethemagnitudeofeconomicfluctuations Itmightbedesirableifpolicymakerscouldeliminatealleconomicfluctuations butthisisnotarealisticgoal 反對 決策者不應(yīng)該努力穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì) 決策者經(jīng)常是無意中擴(kuò)大了而不是縮小了經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的程度 如果決策者可以消除所有經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng) 這樣做是合意的 Shouldmonetarypolicybemadebyruleratherthanbydiscretion 貨幣政策應(yīng)該按規(guī)則還是相機(jī)抉擇 Pro Monetarypolicyshouldbemadebyrule Discretionarymonetarypolicycansufferfromincompetenceandabuseofpower Totheextentthatcentralbankersallythemselveswithpoliticians discretionarypolicycanleadtoeconomicfluctuationsthatreflecttheelectoralcalendar thepoliticalbusinesscycle 贊成 貨幣政策應(yīng)該按規(guī)則制定 相機(jī)抉擇貨幣政策會(huì)受無能和濫用權(quán)利之苦 在某種程度上 中央銀行領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人與政治家結(jié)盟 相機(jī)抉擇政策就會(huì)引起大選日期的經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng) 政治性商業(yè)周期 Pro Monetarypolicyshouldbemadebyrule Theremaybeadiscrepancybetweenwhatpolicymakerssaytheywilldoandwhattheyactuallydo calledtimeinconsistencyofpolicy Becausepolicymakersaresooftentimeinconsistent peopleareskepticalwhencentralbankersannouncetheirintentionstoreducetherateofinflation 贊成 貨幣政策應(yīng)該按規(guī)則制定 也會(huì)存在決策者說他們要做什么和實(shí)際上做了什么之間的不一致性 這種不一致性被稱為政策的時(shí)間不一致性 由于決策者經(jīng)常有這種時(shí)間不一致性 當(dāng)中央銀行領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人宣布他們打算降低通貨膨脹時(shí) 人們往往表示懷疑 Pro Monetarypolicyshouldbemadebyrule贊成 貨幣政策應(yīng)該按規(guī)則制定 CommittingtheFedtoamoderateandsteadygrowthofthemoneysupplywouldlimitincompetence abuseofpower andtimeinconsistency 讓美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)實(shí)行穩(wěn)健的貨幣增長政策會(huì)限制無能 濫用權(quán)利和時(shí)間不一致性 Con Monetarypolicyshouldnotbemadebyrule Animportantadvantageofdiscretionarymonetarypolicyisitsflexibility Inflexiblepolicieswilllimittheabilityofpolicymakerstorespondtochangingeconomiccircumstances 反對 貨幣政策不應(yīng)該根據(jù)規(guī)則制定 相機(jī)抉擇貨幣政策的一個(gè)重要優(yōu)點(diǎn)是靈活性 不靈活的政策將限制決策者對變化著的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境作出反應(yīng)的能力 Con Monetarypolicyshouldnotbemadebyrule Theallegedproblemswithdiscretionandabuseofpowerarelargelyhypothetical Also theimportanceofthepoliticalbusinesscycleisfarfromclear 反對 貨幣政策不應(yīng)該根據(jù)規(guī)則制定 所謂的時(shí)間不一致性和濫用權(quán)利的問題主要是想象出來的 而且 政治性商業(yè)周期的重要性也很不明顯 Shouldthecentralbankaimforzeroinflation 中央銀行應(yīng)該把零通貨膨脹作為目標(biāo)嗎 Pro Thecentralbankshouldaimforzeroinflation Inflationconfersnobenefittosociety butitimposesseveralrealcosts ShoeleathercostsMenucostsIncreasedvariabilityofrelativepricesUnintendedchangesintaxliabilitiesConfusionandinconvenienceArbitraryredistributionofwealth 贊成 中央銀行應(yīng)該以零通貨膨脹作為目標(biāo) 通貨膨脹并沒有給社會(huì)帶來什么好處 但引起了一些實(shí)際成本 皮鞋成本菜單成本相對價(jià)格變動(dòng)性提高稅收負(fù)擔(dān)不合意的變動(dòng)混亂與不方便財(cái)富任意再分配 Pro Thecentralbankshouldaimforzeroinflation 降低通貨膨脹是一項(xiàng)暫時(shí)有成本而長期有好處的政策 一旦反通貨膨脹帶來的衰退過去 零通貨膨脹的好處就會(huì)持續(xù)到來 Con Thecentralbankshouldnotaimforzeroinflation Zeroinflationisprobablyunattainable andtogetthereinvolvesoutput unemployment andsocialcoststhataretoohigh Policymakerscanreducemanyofthecostsofinflationwithoutactuallyreducinginflation 反對 中央銀行不應(yīng)該把零通貨膨脹作為目標(biāo) 零通貨膨脹可能實(shí)現(xiàn)不了 而且為了實(shí)現(xiàn)零通貨膨脹要付出的產(chǎn)量 失業(yè)和社會(huì)成本也太高 決策者可以實(shí)際上并不降低通貨膨脹而減少許多通貨膨脹的成本 Shouldfiscalpolicymakersreducethegovernmentdebt 財(cái)政決策者應(yīng)該減少政府債務(wù)嗎 Pro Thegovernmentshouldbalanceitsbudget Budgetdeficitsimposeanunjustifiableburdenonfuturegenerationsbyraisingtheirtaxesandloweringtheirincomes Whenthedebtsandaccumulatedinterestcomedue futuretaxpayerswillfaceadifficultchoice Theycanpayhighertaxes enjoylessgovernmentspending orboth 贊成 決策者應(yīng)該減少政府債務(wù) 預(yù)算赤字通過增加子孫后代的稅收并減少他們的收入而把不合理的負(fù)擔(dān)加在他們身上 當(dāng)這些債務(wù)和累積的利息到期時(shí) 未來的納稅人就將面臨一個(gè)困難的選擇 他們要納更高的稅 享有較少的政府支出 或者二者都有 Pro Thegovernmentshouldbalanceitsbudget Byshiftingthecostofcurrentgovernmentbenefitstofuturegenerations thereisabiasagainstfuturetaxpayers Deficitsreducenationalsaving leadingtoasmallerstockofcapital whichreducesproductivityandgrowth 贊成 決策者應(yīng)該減少政府債務(wù) 把現(xiàn)任政府所獲利益的成本轉(zhuǎn)嫁給子孫后代 這是對未來納稅人的歧視 赤字減少了國民儲(chǔ)蓄 引起一定時(shí)期內(nèi)資本存量減少 從而降低了生產(chǎn)率和增長 Con Thegovernmentshouldnotbalanceitsbudget Theproblemwiththedeficitisoftenexaggerated Thetransferofdebttothefuturemaybejustifiedbecausesomegovernmentpurchasesproducebenefitswellintothefuture 反對 決策者不應(yīng)該減少政府債務(wù) 預(yù)算赤字的問題往往被夸大了 將債務(wù)傳給子孫后代也許是正當(dāng)?shù)?因?yàn)橐恍┱徺I會(huì)給子孫后代帶來很好的利益 Con Thegovernmentshouldnotbalanceitsbudget反對 決策者不應(yīng)該減少政府債務(wù) Thegovernmentdebtcancontinuetorisebecausepopulationgrowthandtechnologicalprogressincreasethenation sabilitytopaytheinterestonthedebt 政府債務(wù)可以繼續(xù)增加 因?yàn)槿丝谠鲩L和技術(shù)進(jìn)步增強(qiáng)了國家償付債務(wù)利息的能力 Shouldthetaxlawsbereformedtoencouragesaving 應(yīng)該為了鼓勵(lì)儲(chǔ)蓄而修改稅法嗎 Pro Taxlawsshouldbereformedtoencouragesaving Anation ssavingrateisakeydeterminantofitslong runeconomicprosperity Anation sproductivecapabilityisdeterminedlargelybyhowmuchitsavesandinvestsforthefuture Whenthesavingrateishigher moreresourcesareavailableforinvestmentinnewplantandequipment 贊成 應(yīng)該為了鼓勵(lì)儲(chǔ)蓄而修改稅法 一國的儲(chǔ)蓄率是其長期經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮的關(guān)鍵決定因素 一個(gè)國家的生產(chǎn)能力主要取決于它為將來儲(chǔ)蓄和投資了多少 當(dāng)儲(chǔ)蓄率較高時(shí) 更多的資源用于新工廠和設(shè)備的投資 Pro Taxlawsshouldbereformedtoencouragesaving TheU S taxsystemdiscouragessavinginmanyways suchasbyheavilytaxingtheincomefromcapitalandbyreducingbenefitsforthosewhohaveaccumulatedwealth Theconsequencesofhighcapitalincometaxpoliciesarereducedsaving reducedcapitalaccumulation lowerlaborproductivity andreducedeconomicgrowth 贊成 應(yīng)該為了鼓勵(lì)儲(chǔ)蓄而修改稅法 美國稅制以許多方式抑制儲(chǔ)蓄 例如 對資本收入征收重稅和減少那些積累了財(cái)富的人的利益 高資本收入稅政策的結(jié)果是降低了儲(chǔ)蓄 資本積累 勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長 Pro Taxlawsshouldbereformedtoencouragesaving Analternativetocurrenttaxpoliciesadvocatedbymanyeconomistsisaconsumptiontax Withaconsumptiontax ahouseholdpaystaxesbasedonwhatitspendsnotonwhatitearns Incomethatissavedisexemptfromtaxationuntilthesavingislaterwithdrawnandspentonconsumptiongoods 贊成 應(yīng)該為了鼓勵(lì)儲(chǔ)蓄而修改稅法 許多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家支持用消費(fèi)稅代替目前的稅制 如果是征收消費(fèi)稅 家庭只是根據(jù)他們的支出納稅 而不是根據(jù)他們的收入納稅 儲(chǔ)蓄起來的收入是不用納稅的 直到以后提取出來用于支付消費(fèi)品 Con Taxlawsshouldnotbereformedtoencouragesaving Manyofthechangesintaxlawstostimulatesavingwouldprimarilybenefitthewealthy High incomehouseholdssaveahigherfractionoftheirincomethanlow incomehouseholds Anytaxchangethatfavorspeoplewhosavewillalsotendtofavorpeoplewithhighincomes 反對 不應(yīng)該為了鼓勵(lì)儲(chǔ)蓄而修改稅法 許多刺激儲(chǔ)蓄的稅法變動(dòng)主要有利于富人 高收入家庭中儲(chǔ)蓄的比例高于低收入家庭 任何有利于進(jìn)行儲(chǔ)蓄的人的稅收變動(dòng)也傾向于有利于高收入的人 Con Taxlawsshouldnotbereformedtoencouragesaving Reducingthetaxburdenonthewealthywouldleadtoalessegalitariansociety Thiswouldalsoforcethegovernmenttoraisethetaxburdenonthepoor Raisingpublicsavingbyeliminatingthegovernment sbudgetdeficitwouldprovideamoredirectandequitablewaytoincreasenationalsaving 反對 不應(yīng)該為了鼓勵(lì)儲(chǔ)蓄而修改稅法 降低富人的稅收負(fù)擔(dān)會(huì)引起一個(gè)更不平等的社會(huì) 這將迫使政府增加窮人的稅收負(fù)擔(dān) 通過消除政府預(yù)算赤字提高公共儲(chǔ)蓄 也許提供了一種直更接 更平等地增加國民儲(chǔ)蓄的方法 Summary Advocatesofactivemonetaryandfiscalpolicyviewtheeconomyasinherentlyunstableandbelievepolicycanbeusedtooffsetthisinherentinstability Criticsofactivepolicyemphasizethatpolicyaffectstheeconomywithalagandourabilitytoforecastfutureeconomicconditionsispoor bothofwhichcanleadtopolicybeingdestabilizing 小結(jié) 積極貨幣與財(cái)政政策的支持者認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)本質(zhì)上是不穩(wěn)定的 并相信政策可以用來抵消這種內(nèi)在的不穩(wěn)定性 積極貨幣與財(cái)政政策的批評(píng)者強(qiáng)調(diào) 政策對經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響有時(shí)滯 而且我們預(yù)期未來經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況的能力是很差的 這兩個(gè)原因可能導(dǎo)致政策反而使經(jīng)濟(jì)不穩(wěn)定 Summary Advocatesofrulesformonetarypolicyarguethatdiscretionarypolicycansufferfromincompetence abuseofpower andtimeinconsistency Criticsofrulesformonetarypolicyarguethatdiscretionarypolicyismoreflexibleinrespondingtoeconomiccircumstances 小結(jié) 貨幣政策規(guī)則的支持者認(rèn)為 相機(jī)抉擇的政策會(huì)受無能 濫用權(quán)利和時(shí)間不一致性之苦 貨幣政策規(guī)則的批評(píng)者認(rèn)為 相機(jī)抉擇的政策在對變化著的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境作出反應(yīng)時(shí)較為靈活 Summary Advocatesofazero inflationtargetemphasizethatinflationhasmanycostsandfewifanybenefits Criticsofazero i