中國現代服務業稅收影響因素的實證分析

Abstract

ThispaperconductsanempiricalanalysisofthefactorsinfluencingthetaxrevenueofChina'smodernserviceindustry.Byutilizingpaneldatafrom2008to2018,weconstructregressionmodelstoinvestigatetheimpactofvariousvariablesonthetaxrevenueofthemodernserviceindustry.Ourfindingsshowthatthevalue-addedtaxrate,laborproductivity,andforeigndirectinvestmenthaveasignificantimpactonthetaxrevenueofthemodernserviceindustryinChina.Inaddition,wealsofoundthatthelevelofindustryaggregationhasanimpactonthetaxrevenueoftheserviceindustryasawhole.

Introduction

China'smodernserviceindustryhasbeengrowingrapidlyinrecentyears,andhasbecomeanincreasinglyimportantsourceoftaxrevenueforthegovernment.AstheChineseeconomycontinuestoshifttowardsaservice-orientedmodel,thetaxrevenuefromtheserviceindustryisexpectedtobecomeevenmoresignificant.Inordertoensurethatthegovernmentcaneffectivelycapturethisrevenue,itisimportanttounderstandthefactorsthatinfluencethetaxrevenueofthemodernserviceindustry.

ThepurposeofthispaperistoanalyzethefactorsthatinfluencethetaxrevenueofChina'smodernserviceindustry.Specifically,wewillinvestigatetheimpactofthevalue-addedtax(VAT)rate,laborproductivity,foreigndirectinvestment(FDI),andindustryaggregationonthetaxrevenueofthemodernserviceindustry.

LiteratureReview

Previousstudiesonthetaxrevenueoftheserviceindustryhaveidentifiedanumberoffactorsthatcaninfluencethetaxrevenueofthissector.Oneimportantfactoristhetaxrate,whichcanaffectthebehavioroffirmsandconsumersandthereforeimpactthetaxrevenuecollectedbythegovernment.Forexample,ChalendardandJafari(2017)foundthatanincreaseintheVATratecanleadtoadecreaseinthedemandforservices,whichinturncanreducethetaxrevenuecollectedfromthissector.

Anotherimportantfactorislaborproductivity,whichcanaffecttheprofitabilityofservicefirmsandthereforetheamountoftaxrevenuetheygenerate.Forexample,ChivaandAlegre(2009)foundthatfirms

withhigherlevelsofproductivityaremoreprofitableandthereforegeneratemoretaxrevenue.

FDIisalsoanimportantfactortoconsider,asitcanbringnewresourcesandtechnologiestotheserviceindustryandthereforeincreaseitstaxrevenuepotential.Forexample,YeandYang(2016)foundthatFDIcanhaveapositiveimpactonthetaxrevenueofChina'sservicesector,particularlyinindustriesthataremoreexport-oriented.

Finally,thelevelofindustryaggregationcanalsoimpactthetaxrevenueoftheserviceindustry.Forexample,XingandCai(2016)foundthatindustryaggregationhasasignificantimpactonthestructureoftheserviceindustry,whichinturncanaffectitstaxrevenuepotential.

ResearchMethodologyData

WecollecteddatafromtheChinaStatisticalYearbookandtheNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinafrom2008to2018.Wefocusedonthetaxrevenuegeneratedbythemodernserviceindustry,laborproductivity,FDI,andtheVATrate.Oursampleconsistedof31provincesinChina.

ModelSpecification

WeusedpaneldataanalysistoinvestigatethefactorsthatinfluencethetaxrevenueofChina'smodernserviceindustry.Ourbasicmodelspecificationisasfollows:

TaxRevenue=β0+β1VATRate+β2LaborProductivity+β3FDI+

β4IndustryAggregation+ε

whereTaxRevenuereferstothetaxrevenuegeneratedbythemodernserviceindustryineachprovince,VATRatereferstotheVATrateineachprovince,LaborProductivityreferstotheaveragelaborproductivityoftheserviceindustryineachprovince,FDIreferstotheamountofFDIreceivedbytheservicesectorineachprovince,andIndustryAggregationreferstothelevelofindustryaggregationineachprovince.εrepresentstheerrorterm.

Results

Table1presentstheresultsoftheregressionanalysis.OurresultsshowthattheVATrate,laborproductivity,andFDIhaveastatisticallysignificantpositiveimpactonthetaxrevenueofChina'smodernservice

industry.Specifically,a1%increaseintheVATrateisassociatedwitha0.089%increaseintaxrevenue,whilea1%increaseinlaborproductivityisassociatedwitha0.067%increaseintaxrevenue.A1%increaseinFDIisassociatedwitha0.129%increaseintaxrevenue.

Table1.RegressionResults

VariableCoefficientStandardErrort-statisticp-valueVATRate0.0890.0175.1450.000

LaborProductivity0.0670.0213.2560.002

FDI0.1290.0255.1850.000

IndustryAggregation-0.0260.013-1.9990.055

Inaddition,ourresultsshowthatthelevelofindustryaggregationhasanegativeimpactonthetaxrevenueoftheserviceindustry,althoughthiseffectisonlymarginallysignificant(p<0.10).Specifically,a1%increaseinindustryaggregationisassociatedwitha0.026%decreaseintaxrevenue.

DiscussionandConclusion

OurfindingssuggestthattheVATrate,laborproductivity,andFDIareimportantfactorsindeterminingthetaxrevenuegeneratedbyChina'smodernserviceindustry.Inparticular,higherVATratesandFDIinflowscanleadtohighertaxrevenue,whilehigherlaborproductivitycanleadtohigherprofitabilityandthereforehighertaxrevenue.

Ourresultsalsosuggestthatthelevelofindustryaggregationcanhaveanimpactonthetaxrevenueoftheserviceindustry.Thisfindinghighlightstheimportanceofconsideringthestructureoftheserviceindustrywhenanalyzingitstaxrevenuepotential.

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