自然地理學04-轉PDF課件_40(1)幾個事實，幾個疑問(2)歷史上的氣候變化(3)氣候變化中的人類影響(4)氣候變化的生態學效應(5)有關氣候變化的爭議(1)幾個事實，幾個疑問NIPCCMPCLS.FredSingerNIPCCvs.IPCCwNIPCCH8CKACSTHET?IPCCWHOTHEAddressingtheDi$f>aritybetweenClimateModelsandObservations:TestingtheHypothesisofAnthropogenicGloba!WarmingWerWnSoerceUpdatePresentedMMajoranaQy/erenccin8yAugust2011IPCC|NTE加*BdNALF^NELONCUaAATBCHAN^fi=S3)QUAUR^INDEPSD旳^Sa&WSTStPUBLISHIM4PGfNHIPCC?“njttheIpa35reop伐，r*wbytkeftjssii.n/a_ihjousntyn.SAYWHArEV￡e.TWe-YTHlNfcMUC，VS&D0U8TMIMACPON"CDg任

CHArN4￡ISCAUS&DBYUSAN)DWILL3&￡AD鈕心佶WAN平ISA醇Mtn+.JOOHZzot/A部JUIN./NIPCCMPCLS.FredSingerNIPCCvGreenTeamRedTeamICCMIUSUTIORIQIMWTMASMSMMNTMWT09TWWfUMYURMUtTMFANUONCUMAJtOUPhysicalScienceADDENDUM:GlobalClimateChangeImpactsintheUnitedStatesGlobalClimateChangeImpactsintheUnitedStates整餐77"液*.f

a-ipccfajiuonclimaiechange■CenterfortheStudyofPublicScienceandPublicPolicyCatoInstituteCraigD.Idso?RobertM.CarterS.FredSingerangeGreenTeamRedTeamICCMIUSUTIOTheReportoftheNongovernmentalInternationalPanelonClimateChangeaMTfHTMfSTUOTOfCAR8OM010X10(AMOClOaMOUMG￡SCKNCCAMDFNVIRONMtMTMFOUCYHiajECT氣候變化再審視——非政府國際氣候變化研究組報告ClimateChangeReconsideredTheReportoftheNongovernmentalInternationalPanelonClimateChange〔美〕C.D.伊狄梭〔澳〕R.M.用〔美〕S.F.辛格主編張志強曲建升段曉男等譯CENTERFORTHESTUDYOFCARBONDIOXIDEANDGLOBALCHANGESCIENCEANDENVIRONMENTALPOLICYPROJECTTheReportoftheNongovernmenSCtNCfA2wxmcwuiroucv*JECTADDENDUM:GlobalClimateChangeImpactsintheUnitedStatesR￡FORTOFTKtNONGOVERNMKNTALINTKBNATIONALPANELOXCLIMATECHANGEGlobalClimateChangeImpactsintheUnitedStatesNature-NotHumanActivity-RulestheClimateCraigD.Idso?RobertM.Carter?S.FredSingerForewordbyMaritaNoonre.3SCtNCfA2wxmcwuiroucv*JECTAfxKlimaeqd岫SummaryforPolicymaker?Ifbesliitningstak0ipccclimaiechanec可。響|晦嘅ClimatejhangeIINIPCCNOHGOVIRNMENIMINTERMAJKN?MPANELOHarnAHCMAMGfC\MateOm§eRec爾岫時5enceCENTERFORTHESTUDYOFCARBONDIOXIDEKUMAREAUSTENESQENCEANDENVIRONMENTALANOGLOBALCHANGEPOLICYPROJECTfxKlimaeqd岫SummaryforPolicNIPCC《氣候變化再審視》氣候變化再審視——非政府國際氣候變化研究組報告ClimateChangeReconsideredTheReportoftheNongovernmentalInternationalPanelonClimateChange〔美〕C.D.伊狄梭〔澳〕R.M,卡特〔美〕S.F.辛格主編張志強曲建升段曉男等譯a①現代氣候變暖在多大程度上是由人類活動引起的②現代變暖是自然原因造成的③氣候模式不可信④未來海平面上升不可能加速⑤人類活動產生的溫室氣體使海洋變暖了嗎⑥我們對大氣中C02了解多少⑦人類排放CO2的影響是溫和的⑧中等程度變暖對經濟影響可能是正面的CENTERFORTHESTUDYOFCARBONDIOXIDEANDGLOBALCHANGE暨琳?璋！k嵐洋SCIENCEANDENVIRONMENTALPOLICYPROJECTNIPCC《氣候變化再審視》氣候變化再審視ClimateC氣候門事件irjcrirrnnE.the"Decline"1400Proxy(treerings)Qte如■"temperaturedataCnmateGate3■PhilJonesquotesrnscrupulousmaiBnrvejustcompletethelast20yeaM一Activelypreventinggenuine,scientificdebate?''Ican'tseeeitherofthesepapersbeinginthenextIPCCreport.KevinandIwillkeepthemoutsomehow-evenifwehavetoredefinewhatthepeer-reviewliteratureis!"('04)氣候門事件irjcrirrnnE.the"Decline"氣候門事件中的那封電子郵件CheersPhilProf.PhilJonesClimaticResearchUnitTelephone+44(0)xxxxxSchoolofEnvironmentalSciencesFax+44(0)xxxxUniversityofEastAngliaNorwichEmailp.jones@xxxx.xxxNR47TJUKFrom:PhilJonesTo:raybradley,mann@xxxxx.xxx,mhughes@xxxx.xxxSubject:DiagramforWMOStatementDate:Tue,16Nov199913:31:15+0000Cc:k.briffa@xxx.xx.xx,t.osborn@xxxx.xxxDearRay,MikeandMalcolm,OnceTim'sgotadiagramherewe'llsendthateitherlatertodayorfirstthingtomorrow..________________I'vejustcompleted(^like'sNaturetricl^ofaddingintherealtempstoeachseriesforjhelast20years

(iefrom1981onwards)amdfrom1961forKeith!shidethedeciJn^Mike'sseriesgottheannuallandandmarinevalueswhiletheothertwogotApril-SeptforNHlandNof20N.Thelattertwoarerealfor1999,whiletheestimatefor1999forNHcombinedis+0.44Cwrt61-90.TheGlobalestimatefor1999withdatathroughOctis+0.35Ccf.0.57for1998.Thanksforthecomments,Ray.12月4日，25位美國科學家發表公開信，稱這些郵件的內容無法動搖全球變暖的現有結論。氣候門事件中的那封電子郵件CheersProf.Phil“喜馬拉雅門”或“冰川門”“喜馬拉雅門”或“冰川門”“亞馬遜門”300002500020000150001000050000DeforestationintheBrazilianAmazon,1988-200835000JcpdpgssaloaipExbs“亞馬遜門”300002500020000150001000曲棍球棒模型0.020204061400150016001700180。19002000Nature.1

July2010.ANEROSIONOFTRUST?Amusicvideoparodiedthe'hockey-stick'temperaturegraph.曲棍球棒模型0.0202040614001500160017不同的CO2曲線490-r470?450?430?410?390?370?350?330?310?290?270?290?19151920192519301935194019451950195519601965YearCO21920-1961,Northernhemisphere,chemicalTemperatureIPCCCarbonDioxideConcentration400u380o￡360SL栓S.340320196019701980199020002010Yearredlt:NOAA/ScrippsInstitutionofOceanography(Edd)OJ。。Figure13:Thenorthernhemisphere1942CO,maximum,delineatedbyhistoricalchemicalanalysis.InclusiveicecoredatabyNefteletal,[33]andIPCCtemperaturefororientation.不同的CO2曲線490-r19151920ClimateChangeandtheIntegrityofScienceWEAREDEEPLYDISTURBEDBYTHERECENTESCALATIONOFPOLITICALASSAULTSONSCIENTISTSingeneralandonclimatescientistsinparticular.Allcitizensshouldunderstandsomebasicscientificfacts.Thereisalwayssomeuncertaintyassociatedwithscientificconclusions;scienceneverabsolutelyprovesanything.Whensomeonesaysthatsocietyshouldwaituntilscientistsareabsolutelycertainbeforetakinganyaction,itisthesameassayingsocietyshouldnevertakeaction.Foraproblemaspotentiallycatastrophicasclimatechange,takingnoactionposesadangerousriskforourplanet.Scientificconclusionsderivefromanunderstandingofbasiclawssupportedbylaboratoryexperiments,observationsofnature,andmathematicalandcomputermodeling.Likeallhumanbeings,scientistsmakemistakes,butthescientificprocessisdesignedtofindandcorrectthem.Thisprocessisinherentlyadversarial一scientistsbuildreputationsandgainrecognitionnotonlyforsupportingconventionalwisdom,butevenmoresofordemonstratingthatthescientificconsensusiswrongandthatthereisabetterexplanation.ThafswhatGalileo,Pasteur,Darwin,andEinsteindid.Butwhensomeconclusionshavebeenthoroughlyanddeeplytested,ques?tioned,andexamined,theygainthestatusof''well-establishedthe-ories,^andareoftenspokenofas"facts."Forinstance,thereiscompellingscientificevidencethatourplanetisabout4.5billionyearsold(thetheoryoftheoriginofEarth),thatouruniversewasbomfromasingleeventabout14billionyearsago(theBigBangtheory),andthattoday'sorganismsevolvedfromoneslivinginthepast(thetheoryofevolution).Evenastheseareoverwhelmingly科學雜志照片造假ClimateChangeandtheIntegri1950196019702000201019801990'ifear64.2O.2O.O.O.Q-O.(>l)066TI96I￡?>柘而」A-QEOUq1W71M81m20002001200220032004200520M200720082009201020112012201320141950196019702000201019801—0.2—0.418801900192019401960198020002020201880190019201940I96019802000aGlobalLand—OceanTemperatureIndex8o6420???ooo(E壽ulouvOJm當官31—0.2—0.4188019001920194019601GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperature(January-June)(00)A-culuouvain布」①dlu(DJ_00200aeY00oI88I960o—9400I9oI92I980GlobalMeanSurfaceTemperatur將氣候變化回歸為科學問題將氣候變化回歸為科學問題自然地理學04-轉PDF課件_40(1)幾個事實，幾個疑問(2)歷史上的氣候變化(3)氣候變化中的人類影響(4)氣候變化的生態學效應(5)有關氣候變化的爭議(1)幾個事實，幾個疑問NIPCCMPCLS.FredSingerNIPCCvs.IPCCwNIPCCH8CKACSTHET?IPCCWHOTHEAddressingtheDi$f>aritybetweenClimateModelsandObservations:TestingtheHypothesisofAnthropogenicGloba!WarmingWerWnSoerceUpdatePresentedMMajoranaQy/erenccin8yAugust2011IPCC|NTE加*BdNALF^NELONCUaAATBCHAN^fi=S3)QUAUR^INDEPSD旳^Sa&WSTStPUBLISHIM4PGfNHIPCC?“njttheIpa35reop伐，r*wbytkeftjssii.n/a_ihjousntyn.SAYWHArEV￡e.TWe-YTHlNfcMUC，VS&D0U8TMIMACPON"CDg任

CHArN4￡ISCAUS&DBYUSAN)DWILL3&￡AD鈕心佶WAN平ISA醇Mtn+.JOOHZzot/A部JUIN./NIPCCMPCLS.FredSingerNIPCCvGreenTeamRedTeamICCMIUSUTIORIQIMWTMASMSMMNTMWT09TWWfUMYURMUtTMFANUONCUMAJtOUPhysicalScienceADDENDUM:GlobalClimateChangeImpactsintheUnitedStatesGlobalClimateChangeImpactsintheUnitedStates整餐77"液*.f

a-ipccfajiuonclimaiechange■CenterfortheStudyofPublicScienceandPublicPolicyCatoInstituteCraigD.Idso?RobertM.CarterS.FredSingerangeGreenTeamRedTeamICCMIUSUTIOTheReportoftheNongovernmentalInternationalPanelonClimateChangeaMTfHTMfSTUOTOfCAR8OM010X10(AMOClOaMOUMG￡SCKNCCAMDFNVIRONMtMTMFOUCYHiajECT氣候變化再審視——非政府國際氣候變化研究組報告ClimateChangeReconsideredTheReportoftheNongovernmentalInternationalPanelonClimateChange〔美〕C.D.伊狄梭〔澳〕R.M.用〔美〕S.F.辛格主編張志強曲建升段曉男等譯CENTERFORTHESTUDYOFCARBONDIOXIDEANDGLOBALCHANGESCIENCEANDENVIRONMENTALPOLICYPROJECTTheReportoftheNongovernmenSCtNCfA2wxmcwuiroucv*JECTADDENDUM:GlobalClimateChangeImpactsintheUnitedStatesR￡FORTOFTKtNONGOVERNMKNTALINTKBNATIONALPANELOXCLIMATECHANGEGlobalClimateChangeImpactsintheUnitedStatesNature-NotHumanActivity-RulestheClimateCraigD.Idso?RobertM.Carter?S.FredSingerForewordbyMaritaNoonre.3SCtNCfA2wxmcwuiroucv*JECTAfxKlimaeqd岫SummaryforPolicymaker?Ifbesliitningstak0ipccclimaiechanec可。響|晦嘅ClimatejhangeIINIPCCNOHGOVIRNMENIMINTERMAJKN?MPANELOHarnAHCMAMGfC\MateOm§eRec爾岫時5enceCENTERFORTHESTUDYOFCARBONDIOXIDEKUMAREAUSTENESQENCEANDENVIRONMENTALANOGLOBALCHANGEPOLICYPROJECTfxKlimaeqd岫SummaryforPolicNIPCC《氣候變化再審視》氣候變化再審視——非政府國際氣候變化研究組報告ClimateChangeReconsideredTheReportoftheNongovernmentalInternationalPanelonClimateChange〔美〕C.D.伊狄梭〔澳〕R.M,卡特〔美〕S.F.辛格主編張志強曲建升段曉男等譯a①現代氣候變暖在多大程度上是由人類活動引起的②現代變暖是自然原因造成的③氣候模式不可信④未來海平面上升不可能加速⑤人類活動產生的溫室氣體使海洋變暖了嗎⑥我們對大氣中C02了解多少⑦人類排放CO2的影響是溫和的⑧中等程度變暖對經濟影響可能是正面的CENTERFORTHESTUDYOFCARBONDIOXIDEANDGLOBALCHANGE暨琳?璋！k嵐洋SCIENCEANDENVIRONMENTALPOLICYPROJECTNIPCC《氣候變化再審視》氣候變化再審視ClimateC氣候門事件irjcrirrnnE.the"Decline"1400Proxy(treerings)Qte如■"temperaturedataCnmateGate3■PhilJonesquotesrnscrupulousmaiBnrvejustcompletethelast20yeaM一Activelypreventinggenuine,scientificdebate?''Ican'tseeeitherofthesepapersbeinginthenextIPCCreport.KevinandIwillkeepthemoutsomehow-evenifwehavetoredefinewhatthepeer-reviewliteratureis!"('04)氣候門事件irjcrirrnnE.the"Decline"氣候門事件中的那封電子郵件CheersPhilProf.PhilJonesClimaticResearchUnitTelephone+44(0)xxxxxSchoolofEnvironmentalSciencesFax+44(0)xxxxUniversityofEastAngliaNorwichEmailp.jones@xxxx.xxxNR47TJUKFrom:PhilJonesTo:raybradley,mann@xxxxx.xxx,mhughes@xxxx.xxxSubject:DiagramforWMOStatementDate:Tue,16Nov199913:31:15+0000Cc:k.briffa@xxx.xx.xx,t.osborn@xxxx.xxxDearRay,MikeandMalcolm,OnceTim'sgotadiagramherewe'llsendthateitherlatertodayorfirstthingtomorrow..________________I'vejustcompleted(^like'sNaturetricl^ofaddingintherealtempstoeachseriesforjhelast20years

(iefrom1981onwards)amdfrom1961forKeith!shidethedeciJn^Mike'sseriesgottheannuallandandmarinevalueswhiletheothertwogotApril-SeptforNHlandNof20N.Thelattertwoarerealfor1999,whiletheestimatefor1999forNHcombinedis+0.44Cwrt61-90.TheGlobalestimatefor1999withdatathroughOctis+0.35Ccf.0.57for1998.Thanksforthecomments,Ray.12月4日，25位美國科學家發表公開信，稱這些郵件的內容無法動搖全球變暖的現有結論。氣候門事件中的那封電子郵件CheersProf.Phil“喜馬拉雅門”或“冰川門”“喜馬拉雅門”或“冰川門”“亞馬遜門”300002500020000150001000050000DeforestationintheBrazilianAmazon,1988-200835000JcpdpgssaloaipExbs“亞馬遜門”300002500020000150001000曲棍球棒模型0.020204061400150016001700180。19002000Nature.1

July2010.ANEROSIONOFTRUST?Amusicvideoparodiedthe'hockey-stick'temperaturegraph.曲棍球棒模型0.0202040614001500160017不同的CO2曲線490-r470?450?430?410?390?370?350?330?310?290?270?290?19151920192519301935194019451950195519601965YearCO21920-1961,Northernhemisphere,chemicalTemperatureIPCCCarbonDioxideConcentration400u380o￡360SL栓S.340320196019701980199020002010Yearredlt:NOAA/ScrippsInstitutionofOceanography(Edd)OJ。。Figure13:Thenorthernhemisphere1942CO,maximum,delineatedbyhistoricalchemicalanalysis.InclusiveicecoredatabyNefteletal,[33]andIPCCtemperaturefororientation.不同的CO2曲線490-r19151920ClimateChangeandtheIntegrityofScienceWEAREDEEPLYDISTURBEDBYTHERECENTESCALATIONOFPOLITICALASSAULTSONSCIENTISTSingeneralandonclimatescientistsinparticular.Allcitizensshouldunderstandsomebasicscientificfacts.Thereisalwayssomeuncertaintyassociatedwithscientificconclusions;scienceneverabsolutelyprovesanything.Whensomeonesaysthatsocietyshouldwaituntilscientistsareabsolutelycertainbeforetakinganyaction,itisthesameassayingsocietyshouldnevertakeaction.Foraproblemaspotentiallycatastrophicasclimatechange,takingnoactionposesadangerousriskforourplanet.Scientificconclusionsderivefromanunderstandingofbasiclawssupportedbylaboratoryexperiments,observationsofnature,andmathematicalandcomputermodeling.Likeallhumanbeings,scientistsmakemistakes,butthescie