WORLDAFFAIRS MAR24,JavierSolanawasEUHighRepresentativeforForeignandSecurityPolicy,Secretary-GeneralofNATO,andForeignMinisterofSpain.Heiscurrently oftheESADECenterflobalEconomyandGeopoliticsandDistinguishedFellowattheBrookingsInstitution.MADRID–EvenMikhailGorbachev,whopresidedoverthedissolutionoftheSovietUnionwithscarcelyashotfired,hasproclaimedhissupportforRussianVladimirPutin’sannexationofCrimea.ThepeopleofCrimea,hesays,havecorrectedahistoricSovieterror.Gorbachev’ssentimentiswidelysharedRussia.AftertheSovietUnion’sdisintegrationin1991,Russiawentfromsuperpowertobackwater.Threeex-SovietrepublicsjoinedtheEuropeanUnionandNATO,assertingtheirdesirenotonlyfordemocracyandprosperity,butalsotoavoidbeingpartofRussiaeveragain.BymovingtoannexCrimea,Putin,supportedmassively–thusfar–bydomesticpublicopinion,seemstobeendingthepost-imperialfrustrationofthepasttwoSince1991,however,Russiaexplicitlyrecognizedtheterritorialintegrityofonseveraloccasions.Suchrecognitionwaspartofthe1992YaltaAgreement,whichdividedtheBlackSeafleet,andofthe1997leasingcontractthatallowedthefleettoremaininSevastopol.’sterritorialintegritywasalsorecognizedinthe1994denuclearizationagreement,signedbytheUnitedKingdom,Russia,andtheUnitedStates,andagaininApril2011,whenthen-ViktorYanukovychextendedtheSevastopollease.TheUkrainianconstitutionprohibitedthereferendumonindependencethatwascarried

outinCrimeainthepresenceofRussiantroops.WiththevotetoleaveandjointheRussianFederationillegalbyanyreckoning,theinternationalcommunity,astheEUhasdeclared,cannotaccepttheRelationsbetweentheEUandhavealwaysbeencomplex.TheAssociationAgreementthatYanukovychrejectedlastNovember–adecisionthatincitedthepopularsthatbroughtdownhisernment–hadbeenundernegotiationsince2007.Essentiallyafree-tradetreatywithadditionalpoliticalelements,itssigningwaspostponedbecauseoftheimprisonmentofformerPrimeMinisterYuliaTymoshenko.In,YanukovychacceptedRussia’scounter-offer:a30%reductioninthepriceofRussiangassand$15billiontostaveoffdefault.Russianeedsifitistobuildso-calledEurasianUnion,theeconomicblocthatPutinisseekingwithKazakhstanandBelarus.Unlikethepartiestoafree-tradeagreement,themembersofacustomsunionliketheonePutinenvisagessettradepolicywithrespecttothirdstatesthroughtheestablishmentofcommonforeigntariffs.Thus,’sincorporationwouldbepatiblewithitsEUAssociationRussiaand,however,alreadyhaveafree-tradeagreement,viatheCommonwealthofIndependentStatesfree-tradeagreementsignedinOctober2011,whichiscompatiblewiththeproposedEUAssociationAgreement–inthesamewaythatMexicomaintainsfree-tradetreatieswiththeEU,aswellaswiththeUSandCanada.thuscouldhavemaintainednormalrelationswithitsneighbors,withtheEU,andwithRussia.ButRussianeedsfornationalistaswellaseconomicreasons.RussiannationalismhasalwaysconsideredanextensionofRussiaitself,byvirtueofitbeinghometoplacesthatareamongthedearesttoRussianidentity.PutinhascalledKyiv“themotherofallRussiancities.”Sevastopol,inturn,isadoublyheroiccity:duringthesiegeoftheCrimeanWarinthenineteenthcenturyandduringWorldWarII.ButunderstandingRussia’sfrustrationsandsentimentsdoesnotexcuseinvasionandannexation.TheEUAssociationAgreementthreatenednoneofRussia’sinterests,whethereconomicorcultural.RelationsbetweentheEUandRussiacannotbebasedonzero-sumgamesorspheresofinfluence.Solutionsmustbefoundthatenablealltowin.Moreover,Russia’sannexationofCrimeawilllikelydamageitscoreinterest:itspoliticalrelationshipwith,whichitwantstokeepfarfromEurope.So,forEurope,themostimportantprioritynowistohelptoensurestabilityandprosperityintherestofTheandmostpressingissueisstabilize ernmentinKyiv.ialelectiononMay25willbeakeymoment.Thevotemustbefreeandfair,accordingtodemocraticstandards.Moreover,itisessentialthatthestaterespectsnationalminorities’linguisticandculturalrightsand

promotessocialinclusion.Europeanaidshouldbeconditionedon’sperformanceinthisarea.Second,giventhattheriskofisgreatestin’sRussophoneeast,anOSCEmissionshouldbedeployedtheretoensurestability,security,andrespectforminorities,andtocondemn,ifnecessary,violationsofspecifiedcommitments.Thethirdissue?andperhapsthemostimportant?isthepressingneedforeconomicaid.TheEUhaspreparedan€11billion($15billion)aidpackage,thoughitissubjecttorulesandconditionssetbytheInternationalMonetaryFund,whichiscontributingpartofthetotal.Though’seconomyiscollapsing,the ernmentmaintainsexcessivespendingonsubsidiesthatarepatiblewithIMFaid.Atpresent,forexample,the ernmentspendsasmuchas16%ofitsbudgettosubsidizethepriceofenergyforeverycitizen.RussiawillnotskimponspendingafterannexingCrimea,andCrimeanswillbenefitfromthataidandaccesstoche Thoughthetourismindustryislikelytobemoribundforsometime,RussiansubsidiesmayleaveCrimeansrelativelybetteroff,especiallyfromtheoftheirethnickinineastern.EUandWesternaidpackageswillneedtotakethisintoaccount.TheproblemofCrimeawillnotberesolvedquickly.ThoughPutindeclaredinhisannexationspeechthatCrimeaisan“inseparablepart”ofRussia,hisbehaviorwillturnagainsthim.HeandRussiawillsufferinternationalisolation,whileUkrainiansarelikelyto eevenmoreinsistentonchoosingtheirownpath.穩統·吞并克里米亞。用他的話講，克里米亞人民糾正了一個歷史的錯誤。的情緒在俄羅斯受到廣泛的認同。1991年后，俄羅斯就從超級大國降格為窮鄉僻壤。三個前加盟歐盟和北約，公開宣布他們不僅要實現和繁榮，還要避免以后再落入的魔爪。吞并克里米亞之舉迄今為止受到國內的強大支持，似乎為前20年后但1991年以來，俄羅斯明確承認的完整性。這樣的表態是1992年雅爾塔協定行塞瓦斯托波爾的1997年租賃合同。1994年由英、俄、美共同簽署的協議再次于2011年4月時統亞努科維奇續簽塞瓦斯托波爾租約時承認了的完整性。以何種標準衡量都以方式脫離加入俄，以歐盟為代表的國際社會宣布接受這一歐盟與之間的關系一直非常復雜。去年十一月被亞努科維奇 融入了政治因素的貿易協定，該協定的簽署因為尤利