1、世界經(jīng)濟(jì)千年史史2004年第554期（總第第470期）2004年9月月28日荷蘭蘭格羅寧根大大學(xué)教授、世世界經(jīng)濟(jì)千年年史作者M(jìn)Maddisson先生在在中國經(jīng)濟(jì)研研究中心萬眾眾樓做了題為為“世界經(jīng)濟(jì)千千年史”的講座，集集中討論了宏宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)量量歷史研究的的發(fā)展進(jìn)程。下下面是他報(bào)告告的主要內(nèi)容容。宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)量歷歷史的發(fā)展經(jīng)經(jīng)歷了三個(gè)歷歷史階段：220世紀(jì)500年代以來的的“收入和財(cái)富富國際研究協(xié)協(xié)會時(shí)期”即IARIIW時(shí)期（IInternnationnal Asssociaation for RResearrch inn Incoome annd Weaalth）；18201950年年的庫茲涅斯

2、斯研究為代表表的時(shí)期或“Kuzneetsiann時(shí)期”；1500018200年商人資本本主義年代。550年代以來來，宏觀計(jì)量量的主要目的的是提供可能能的政策選擇擇以改善國家家的增長表現(xiàn)現(xiàn)以及進(jìn)行國國家間差異分分析。我們現(xiàn)現(xiàn)在有50年年代以來世界界大部分國家家的增長和收收入的官方估估計(jì)。而在KKuznettsian時(shí)時(shí)代，數(shù)量經(jīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)史學(xué)家在在測量世界經(jīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和量量化增長因素素方面取得了了巨大進(jìn)展。雖雖然仍有一些些領(lǐng)域需要改改進(jìn)，但對這這個(gè)時(shí)期經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)發(fā)展大致輪輪廓沒有實(shí)質(zhì)質(zhì)爭議。相反反，關(guān)于商人人資本主義年年代的世界經(jīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的描述則則存在很大分分歧，作為代代表的是亞當(dāng)當(dāng)、斯密的樂樂觀看法和馬馬爾薩

3、斯的悲悲觀論。20世紀(jì)50年年代以來的IIARIW時(shí)時(shí)代雖然50年代以以來標(biāo)準(zhǔn)國民民經(jīng)濟(jì)核算體體系逐漸被采采用，但是現(xiàn)現(xiàn)存估計(jì)中仍仍有很多問題題。使用蘇聯(lián)聯(lián)MPS體系系（mateerial produuctionn systtem）的國國家增長被高高估，需要做做大量調(diào)整。非非洲許多新生生國家缺少必必要的技術(shù)和和資金進(jìn)行國國民收入增長長核算，雖然然國際組織工工作在一定程程度上彌補(bǔ)了了這種不足，但但是非洲數(shù)據(jù)據(jù)也需要做大大量調(diào)整。還還有19955年以來一些些高收入國家家開始引入享享樂指數(shù)（hhedoniic inddex）來反反映產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量量的改善，但但是這么做并并沒有充分的的根據(jù)并且會會高估經(jīng)濟(jì)增

4、增長，比如美美國用新的計(jì)計(jì)量技術(shù)重新新進(jìn)行1922919550年國民經(jīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)核算，結(jié)結(jié)果使國內(nèi)生生產(chǎn)總值(GGDP)的增增長率由2.6%增加到到3.5%。最最后關(guān)于教育育和知識的計(jì)計(jì)量也還沒有有成熟理論。另一問題是購買買力平價(jià)轉(zhuǎn)換換與國家間GGDP水平比比較。政府統(tǒng)統(tǒng)計(jì)官員會提提供真實(shí)價(jià)格格計(jì)算的總產(chǎn)產(chǎn)出和總支出出數(shù)據(jù)，經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)學(xué)家、新聞聞記者和官員員們都將其作作為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長長和波動的主主要指標(biāo)。購購買力平價(jià)方方法與用真實(shí)實(shí)價(jià)格計(jì)量的的目的是一樣樣的，即修正正價(jià)格差異使使真實(shí)產(chǎn)出和和支出水平的的有效比較成成為可能。以以匯率轉(zhuǎn)換的的GDP與以以購買力平價(jià)價(jià)轉(zhuǎn)換的GDDP區(qū)別非常常大。以購買買力平價(jià)計(jì)算

5、算的發(fā)展中國國家的GDPP要大大高于于以匯率轉(zhuǎn)換換的GDP，差差距可能達(dá)到到3-5倍。同同時(shí)發(fā)達(dá)國家家GDP以匯匯率計(jì)算則容容易被高估。更更為明顯的一一個(gè)例子是11950年中中國和印度以以匯率計(jì)算人人均GDP分分別是$855和$1755（19900年價(jià)格），這這兩個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)低低得讓人難以以置信。那么么為何匯率轉(zhuǎn)轉(zhuǎn)換還如此經(jīng)經(jīng)常的被使用用呢？一方面面出于無知和和支持自己觀觀點(diǎn)的需要，另另一方面許多多發(fā)展國家不不愿意接受購購買力平價(jià)方方法，因?yàn)閾?dān)擔(dān)心這會不利利于他們申請請世行的優(yōu)惠惠貸款和資助助。這導(dǎo)致了了經(jīng)濟(jì)間比較較分析的明顯顯錯(cuò)誤，媒體體經(jīng)常稱日本本是世界第二二大經(jīng)濟(jì)雖然然其GDP還還不到中國的的

6、60，英英國的政客們們也始終相信信英國的經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)規(guī)模比中國國大。182019950年的KKuznettsian時(shí)時(shí)代Simon KKuznetts教授對現(xiàn)現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)增長長的研究成果果，使可以數(shù)數(shù)量化研究的的時(shí)間界限從從20世紀(jì)550年代推進(jìn)進(jìn)到19世紀(jì)紀(jì)20年代。關(guān)關(guān)于這段時(shí)期期我們現(xiàn)有的的幾個(gè)結(jié)論是是：加速的經(jīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長始于于1820年年而非Kuzznets認(rèn)認(rèn)為的17660年；經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)學(xué)家對西歐歐各國研究表表明西歐的崛崛起是同時(shí)而而非交錯(cuò)發(fā)生生的；這段時(shí)時(shí)期快速發(fā)展展加大了西方方與其他國家家的差距；KKuznetts研究推翻翻了Konddratieeff長期循循環(huán)的說法和和Schummpeterr

7、循環(huán)發(fā)展論論點(diǎn)。事實(shí)上上1820年年以來的技術(shù)術(shù)變革不是浪浪潮式的而是是連續(xù)推進(jìn)的的，目前有足足夠證據(jù)把1182022001這段段時(shí)間劃分為為5個(gè)不同的的發(fā)展階段。其其中1950019733年是一個(gè)無無可比擬的繁繁榮的黃金時(shí)時(shí)代，這個(gè)時(shí)時(shí)期世界GDDP年均增長長5，世界界貿(mào)易年均增增長8，人人均收入有明明顯趨同趨勢勢，大部分地地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長長都快于美國國。19733年以后，世世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長長明顯下降，各各地區(qū)的差異異加大，但是是基于世界的的角度，最近近這個(gè)階段仍仍然是增長表表現(xiàn)名列第二二的階段。區(qū)區(qū)分領(lǐng)導(dǎo)國家家和跟隨國家家對于研究技技術(shù)的動態(tài)傳傳播和趕超過過程是非常重重要的，“領(lǐng)導(dǎo)”國家指那些些處

8、于技術(shù)前前沿的國家，而而“跟隨”國家指勞動動生產(chǎn)率較低低的國家。11500年以以來共有4個(gè)個(gè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)國家，116世紀(jì)的意意大利，166世紀(jì)至拿破破侖戰(zhàn)爭時(shí)期期的荷蘭，此此后的英國和和1890年年后的美國。對1820年以以來英國、美美國和日本的的增長分析，最最早考慮的是是勞動力投入入和生產(chǎn)率，戰(zhàn)戰(zhàn)后資本成了了一個(gè)非常重重要的增長因因素，之后又又有觀點(diǎn)將“人力資本”看作生產(chǎn)要要素。Dennison擴(kuò)擴(kuò)展增長分析析方法指出11820年以以來英國、美美國和日本經(jīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長表現(xiàn)現(xiàn)出以下一些些顯著特點(diǎn)：物質(zhì)資本大大量增長，非非居住建筑和和機(jī)器設(shè)備增增加非常明顯顯，伴隨在機(jī)機(jī)器設(shè)備中加加速的技術(shù)進(jìn)進(jìn)步。教育水水平

9、大大提高高，英國提高高了8倍，美美國和日本111倍。人均均勞動投入在在英國和日本本下降了400，在美國國下降了200。對外貿(mào)貿(mào)易占GDPP的比重在英英國由3增增至25，日日本0.2至13，美美國2至110。自然然資源的缺乏乏對增長并不不構(gòu)成限制，人人均土地在美美國下降了114倍，英國國和日本下降降了4倍。能能源的投入增增長比較溫和和，美國人均均增長了3倍倍，英國6倍倍，日本8倍倍。150018820年的商商人資本主義義年代關(guān)于商人資本主主義年代（1150011820）經(jīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)，在在18世紀(jì)末末就已經(jīng)存在在兩種不同的的解釋。亞當(dāng)當(dāng)、斯密樂觀觀地認(rèn)為，美美洲大陸和新新航線的發(fā)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)給大型經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)，國

10、際貿(mào)易易和專業(yè)化的的發(fā)展創(chuàng)造了了新的機(jī)會，雖雖然因?yàn)閷Q(mào)貿(mào)易的共同限限制，這些機(jī)機(jī)會不能被充充分利用。馬馬爾薩斯則悲悲觀論則認(rèn)為為，經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)現(xiàn)取決于人口口增長和固定定的土地供給給間的平衡，技技術(shù)進(jìn)步、資資本形成和國國際貿(mào)易專業(yè)業(yè)化的因素被被忽略，因此此只有通過災(zāi)災(zāi)難（戰(zhàn)爭、饑饑荒、疾病）才才能實(shí)現(xiàn)平衡衡。這兩種觀觀點(diǎn)對立一直直存在。此外外悲觀的看法法有了一些其其他的支持，LLeRoy Ladurrie認(rèn)為法法國1300017200年的經(jīng)濟(jì)是是停滯的，真真實(shí)工資論者者則更加悲觀觀他們有人認(rèn)認(rèn)為英國18820年的生生活水平比11500年下下降了44等等。關(guān)于15001820不不同國家和地地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)

11、表表現(xiàn)，Kuzznets在在1965年年提出了關(guān)于于西歐人口率率和人均GDDP增長的一一個(gè)非常有影影響的假說，認(rèn)認(rèn)為西歐發(fā)達(dá)達(dá)國家1500017550年可能的的（并且或許許是最大的）長長期人均產(chǎn)出出年均增長率率為0.2%。對上述假假說驗(yàn)證表明明，西歐1550018820年人均均年增長率為為0.14，顯著小于于Kuzneets估計(jì)，美美洲國家整體體而言人均GGDP增長快快于西歐，非非洲南部和北北部的發(fā)展差差異比較明顯顯，亞洲國家家整體而言收收入水平是停停滯的，日本本的人均表現(xiàn)現(xiàn)要好于中國國和印度，但但是非常明顯顯中國這個(gè)時(shí)時(shí)期有著廣泛泛的增長，它它在人口大量量增長的情況況下生活水平平并沒有下降降

12、并且GDPP的增長與西西歐一樣顯著著。在分析商人資本本主義時(shí)代的的增長時(shí)，增增長分析的方方法就不再適適用了。研究究表明，人均均勞動投入、資資本和人力資資本、知識在在這個(gè)時(shí)期都都有增加，但但是非常明顯顯的是全球化化在這個(gè)時(shí)期期起到了比以以往更加重要要的作用，相相對來說全球球化在這段時(shí)時(shí)期的作用比比在20世紀(jì)紀(jì)還要重要。西西方造船業(yè)和和航海的巨大大發(fā)展，使世世界貿(mào)易在1150011820年增增長了20倍倍。歐洲國家家還從殖民地地，非洲奴隸隸貿(mào)易中獲取取了很多利益益。美洲國家家則經(jīng)歷了生生態(tài)、技術(shù)和和人口的轉(zhuǎn)型型。引進(jìn)新的的農(nóng)作物提高高了糧食的產(chǎn)產(chǎn)量；馬和其其他牲畜的引引入則改善了了交通條件；歐洲各

13、種技技術(shù)的引入也也有助于經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)的發(fā)展；歐歐洲疾病使22/3土著居居民死亡，加加上歐洲人和和非洲奴隸大大量涌入，改改變了美洲的的人口結(jié)構(gòu)。非非洲和亞洲國國家也引入了了美洲農(nóng)作物物。此外還存存在大陸間的的技術(shù)傳遞，歐歐洲向美洲輸輸出武器、工工具、車輛、船船和造船技術(shù)術(shù)、印刷、文文字、教育和和政治經(jīng)濟(jì)機(jī)機(jī)構(gòu)，歐洲采采礦技術(shù)在美美洲應(yīng)用生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)出大量金銀銀供歐洲與亞亞洲進(jìn)行貿(mào)易易，同時(shí)期歐歐洲從亞洲引引入了紡織和和陶瓷技術(shù)。與亞當(dāng)斯密和馬馬爾薩斯關(guān)于于商人資本主主義的對立解解釋相對應(yīng)，關(guān)關(guān)于現(xiàn)代化的的根源有非常常不同的看法法。有一個(gè)學(xué)學(xué)派認(rèn)為現(xiàn)代代經(jīng)濟(jì)增長源源于工業(yè)革命命，而之前則則是幾個(gè)世紀(jì)紀(jì)的馬爾薩

14、斯斯停滯。很多多人支持這個(gè)個(gè)觀點(diǎn)，但是是這些觀點(diǎn)在在根本上是錯(cuò)錯(cuò)誤的。事實(shí)實(shí)上向現(xiàn)代資資本主義過渡渡經(jīng)歷了長時(shí)時(shí)間的準(zhǔn)備。首首先是教育和和知識的傳播播由于印刷術(shù)術(shù)的發(fā)明和推推廣而變革；其次造船業(yè)業(yè)和航海業(yè)到到1820年年也發(fā)生了變變革，船只的的設(shè)計(jì)、裝備備和天文知識識都大大改善善，有了精確確的航海指導(dǎo)導(dǎo)等等。這些些進(jìn)展都是科科研努力的結(jié)結(jié)果。無疑，歐歐洲的這些發(fā)發(fā)展是19和和20世紀(jì)經(jīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)更快發(fā)展展的前奏，歐歐洲的現(xiàn)代化化不是一蹴而而就的。（任麗達(dá)、盧鋒鋒整理） - 發(fā)貼時(shí)間： 2004-10-177 2:288:56 218.31.*.* erraantkinng 等級：貧農(nóng)農(nóng)財(cái)產(chǎn)：經(jīng)驗(yàn)：魅

15、力： 注冊：20003-9-7 文章：555 鑒定：保密密 - Measuriing annd Intterpreeting Worldd Econnomic Perfoormancce 15000-20001*Angus MMaddissonThis iss a suuitablle occcasionn for surveeying the pprogreess acchieveed, inn the past 60 yeears, in quuantiffying worldd econnomic devellopmennt, annd anaalysinng thee caussal

16、innfluennces wwhich deterrmine the ppace aand paatternn of ggrowthh. Thiis wass a maajor oobjecttive oof thee founnding fatheers off the Interrnatioonal AAssociiationn for Reseaarch iin Inccome aand Weealth (IARIIW). TThe innitiattive ffor crreatinng an assocciatioon inccludinng botth acaademiccs an

17、dd offiicial statiisticiians ccame ffrom SSimon Kuzneets (11901-885), tthe piioneerr of qquantiitativve ecoonomicc histtory. Miltoon Gillbert (19099-79) and RRicharrd Stoone (11913-11991) were strattegic partnners wwith eenormoous innternaationaal levveragee in ccreatiing annd difffusinng staandardd

18、 proccedurees forr consstructtion oof commparabble naationaal acccountss by oofficiial sttatisttical officces.This paaper aanalysses thhe devvelopmment oof maccro-meeasureement in thhree eepochss:a) for the IIARIW epochh, bacck to 1950, the main purpoose haas beeen to illumminatee poliicy opptionss

19、to iimprovve groowth pperforrmancee at tthe naationaal levvel annd to analyyse innter-ccountrry divvergennce inn reall incoome leevels to heelp deevise policcies ffor caatch-uup. Wee now have officcial eestimaates oof groowth aand leevels for tthe vaast buulk off the worldd econnomy ffrom 11950 oonw

20、ardds.b) For the KKuznettsian epochh of “mmodernn econnomic growtth” baack too 18200, quaantitaative econoomic hhistorrians have made greatt proggress in meeasuriing woorld eeconommic grrowth and iin quaantifyying tthe foorces deterrmininng perrformaance. Theree is sscope for ffurtheer ressearchh to

21、 ffill ggaps aand crrosschheck eexistiing esstimattes, bbut thhe brooad coontourrs of devellopmennt in this periood aree not underr seriious cchalleenge.c) for the “mmerchaant caapitallist” epochh, 15000-18220, thhere aare shharplyy diveergentt inteerprettationns aboout woorld, and pparticcularlly E

22、urropeann perfformannce. TThe diichotoomy beetweenn posiitive and nnegatiive asssessmments startted wiith Addam Smmith aand Maalthuss at tthe ennd of the 118th ccenturry. Inn my vview, the eevidennce foor thee Maltthusiaan vieew is shodddy.Historiians uusuallly staart att the beginnning of thheir cc

23、hronoology. Quanntitattive eeconommic hiistoriians hhave tto worrk bacckwardds froom thee pressent, proceeedingg fromm whatt is kknown and aacceptted, tto earrlier epochhs wheere evvidencce is weakeer andd therre is greatter reeliancce on cluess and conjeecturee. *This iis thee firsst Rugggles Lectu

24、ure, ddeliveered aat thee 28thh IARIIW Genneral Confeerencee, Corrk, Irelland AAugustt 20044I(i) Staandarddised Estimmates of GDDP Groowth ffor 19950 onnwardssThe staandarddised accouunts pprovidde a ccohereent maacroecconomiic fraameworrk covveringg the wholee econnomy, crossscheckked inn threee wa

25、yys. Frrom thhe inccome sside, they are tthe tootal oof wagges, rrents and pprofitts. Onn the demannd sidde, thhey arre thee sum of fiinal eexpendditurees by consuumers, inveestorss and goverrnmentt. Froom thee prodductioon sidde, thhe summ of vvalue addedd in ddifferrent ssectorrs-agrricultture, in

26、dusstry aand seervicees, neet of dupliicatioon.Milton Gilbeert haad beeen ressponsiible ffor thhe offficiall US acccountss duriing thhe warr and from 1950 to 19961 waas heaad of statiisticss and natioonal aaccounnts inn OEECC. Thee Marsshall Plan requiired ccriterria foor aidd alloocatioon, annd NAT

27、TO neeeded tthem ffor itts burrden-ssharinng exeercisees. Giilbertt met thesee requuiremeents bby pusshing officcial sstatissticall offiices oof thee 16 OOEEC mmemberr counntriess to aadopt the sstandaardiseed sysstem oof acccountss desiigned by Riichardd Stonne. Stone sset upp a prrogrammme inn Cam

28、bbridgee to ttrain officcial EEuropeean sttatistticianns to impleement the sstandaardiseed sysstem. A sett of nnationnal haandboooks waas preeparedd to eexplaiin thee probblems of addjustmment tto thee stanndardiised ssystemm, andd a fiirst ccomparrativee set of acccountts forr the 16 coountriies fo

29、or 19338 andd 19477-52 wwas puublishhed byy OEECC in 11954, with extennsive notess expllaininng thee adjuustmennts whhich hhad beeen maade too achiieve ccomparrabiliity.In 19533, Stoone beecame chairrman oof a UUnitedd Natiions ccommisssion whichh estaablishhed a systeem of accouunts ffor woorldwiid

30、e appplicaation. The UN coould nnot exxert aas mucch levveragee on iits meember counttries to coonformm as wwas poossiblle in OEEC. The commuunist counttries used the SSoviett SMS (systtem off mateerial accouunts) whichh had a narrrowerr defiinitioon of produuctivee actiivity (exclludingg manyy serv

31、vice aactiviities), invvolvedd seriious ddoublee counnting (meassuringg grosss outtput wwithouut dedductinng intter-seector transsfers of innputs) and exagggerateed ecoonomicc growwth. TThe prrice ssystemm and tax-sstructtures were diffeerent from thosee in ccapitaalist counttries, and measuuremennt

32、 connventiions ggave iincenttives to exxaggerrate qqualitty chaange wwhen nnew prroductts werre inttroducced. AAbram Bergsson (11914-22003) pioneeered proceeduress for re-esstimattion oof Sovviet GGDP onn a baasis ccorresspondiing appproxiimatelly to Westeern cooncepttions in cooveragge, wiith ellim

33、inaation of doouble-countting, and rrepriccing oon an “adjuusted factoor cosst” baasis wwith iimputaation for ccapitaal cossts whhich wwere nnot coonsideered iin Sovviet aaccounnting. Thesse corrrectiive prroceduures wwere aapplieed to Sovieet staatistiics byy a teeam off CIA Sovieetologgists in Waa

34、shinggton. In Neew Yorrk, Thhad Allton aand hiis collleaguues diid thee samee for Bulgaaria, Czechhoslovvakia, Eastt Germmany, Polannd, Romaania aand Yuugoslaavia. This work was ffinancced foor inttelliggence purpooses, but wwas puubliclly avaailablle in annuaal repports to thhe US Congrress (see MM

35、addisson 19998b).In the 1990ss mostt of tthese counttries adoptted thhe staandarddised SNA ssystemm in pprinciiple, but iimplemmentattion wwas coompliccated by thhe masssive changge in ownerrship, in tthe leevel aand sttructuure off pricces, aallocaation of reesourcces beetweenn conssumptiion annd i

36、nvvestmeent, aand sttatisttical reporrting proceeduress. It will take some yearss befoore thhese pprobleems caan be fullyy resoolved. The IMF ccontinnues tto usee exagggeratted meeasurees of GDP ggrowthh for thesee counntriess. As a ressult, it shhows aa growwth inn worlld GDPP averragingg 3.9 perce

37、ent a year for 11970-2200, ccomparred wiith myy estiimate of 3.3 perrcent. For Chinaa it sshows growtth aveeraginng 8.55 per cent a yeaar, whhereass my aadjustted meeasuree showws a ggrowthh ratee of 66.5 peer cennt (seee Madddisonn, 20003, p. 231).Anotherr areaa of wweakneess iss Afriica, wwhere th

38、eree was and sstill is a greatt shorrtage of skkills and mmoney for ssuch wwork iin a llarge numbeer of newlyy creaated ccountrries. The ggap inn estiimatess of GGDP grrowth was ffilledd in ssubstaantiall degrree byy the OECD Devellopmennt Cenntre wwhich compiiled aannuall estiimatess of rreal GGDP

39、grrowth 1950-90 foor 51 Africcan coountriies. TThe Ceentre beneffited from the eexperttise oof Derrek Bllades, who had bbeen cchief statiisticiian inn Malaawi foor eigght yeears, and bby Davvid Roobertss who had ssimilaar expperiennce inn Gambbia. A thirdd probblem iin thee asseessmennt of GDP ggrow

40、thh perfformannce inn the higheer inccome ccountrries dderivees froom reccent cchangees in measuuremennt connventiions ffrom 11995 oonwardds, innvolviing addoptioon of hedonnic inndexess to aadjustt for assummed chhangess in qqualitty of produuct, uuse off chaiin inddices, and treattment of coonsume

41、er sofftwaree as iinvesttment. Hedonicc indiices aare peerfecttly reespecttable in smmall ddoses, but one ccan bee skeppticall abouut thee wideespreaad asssumptiion thhat quualityy channges hhave bbeen sso larrge annd monnotoniicallyy posiitive. In tthe USSA, whhere tthe swwitch to heedoniccs wass m

42、ostt signnificaant, ttheir net iimpactt was to raaise tthe meeasureed ratte of growtth to a sommewhatt greaater ddegreee thann in WWesterrn Eurrope aand Jaapan. US offficiall estiimatess go bback tto 19229, annd thee channges iin meaasuremment ttechniique hhad thheir bbiggesst imppact ffor 19929-500

43、, raiising the GGDP grrowth rate for tthat pperiodd fromm 2.6 perceent a year to 3.5. Thhere wwas noo counnterpaart too thiss longg retrrospecctive readjjustmeent inn otheer couuntriees, annd I hhave ccontinnued tto usee the earliier USS offiicial measuure foor 19229-50 (for reasoons exxplainned inn

44、 Madddison, 20011, p. 138, and MMaddisson, 22003, pp.799-80). Moree thann 40 yyears ago, Miltoon Gillbert warneed thaat succh adjjustmeents ccould open Pandooras box: “In tthe ennd, thhey woould mmake iit imppossibble too consstructt meassures of ouutput and pprice changges thhat arre useeful tto th

45、ee studdy of econoomic ggrowthh” (Giilbertt, 19661, p. 287). Thee dangger whhich aarisess fromm an ooverdoose off hedoonics is diiscusssed inn Appeendix 3.Ed Deniison (1915-1992) exprressedd oppoositioon to changges inn natiional accouuntingg whicch treeat acccretiions oof knoowledgge as invesstment

46、t. He consiideredd thiss a “mmisclaassifiicatioon” whhich mmade “ggrowthh anallysis chaottic” (see DDenisoon, 19989, pp. 10). A mmajor justiificattion ffor hiis commplainnt wass thatt his growtth acccountss inclluded “humaan cappital”, i.e. incrrementts in the qqualitty of the llabourr forcce duee t

47、o iincreaases iin thee leveel of educaation.In factt, thee onlyy formm of kknowleedge wwhich is noow treeated as innvestmment iis commputerr softtware. It iis oddd to ttreat this rapiddly deepreciiatingg knowwledgee as iinvesttment, whillst iggnorinng thee moree duraable iinflueence oof boooks annd

48、eduucatioon.(ii) Puurchassing PPower Conveerterss for Crosss-counntry CComparrison of GDDP Levvels Once sttandarrdisedd accoounts of reeal GDDP groowth iin nattionall currrenciees hadd beenn estaablishhed foor alll OEECC counntriess, thee nextt stepp to ffaciliitate interr-counntry ccomparrison and

49、mmulti-counttry agggregaation was tthe deeveloppment of puurchassing ppower paritty connverteers (PPPPs) to meeasuree reall GDP levells, raather than relyiing onn exchhange rate compaarisonn. Thee firsst OEEEC stuudy, cco-autthoredd by MMiltonn Gilbbert aand Irrving Kraviis (19916-922). apppeareed i

50、n 1954, a seecond in 19958. TThey ccomparred reeal exxpendiiture levells in 8 OEEEC couuntriees. A thirdd voluume byy Paigge andd Bombbach (1959) comppared real outpuut levvels iin thee UK andd USA. KKraviss and his ccolleaagues, Alann Hestton annd Robbert SSummerrs impprovedd the methoodologgy of P

51、PP eestimaation in thheir IICP prrojectt at tthe Unniverssity oof Pennnsylvvania from 1968 onwarrds.The OEEEC stuudies were binarry commparissons bbetweeen paiirs off counntriess. Thee threee opttions were i) a Paascche PPPP, wiith “oown-coountryy” quaantityy weigghts; ii) aa Lasppeyress PPP with th

52、e qquantiity weeightss of tthe nuumeraiire coountryy-the Uniteed Staates; iii) a commpromiise geeometrric (FFisherr) aveerage of thhe firrst twwo meaasuress. Thee corrresponnding measuures oof reaal exppenditture wwere: i) Laaspeyrres coompariisons of GDDP levvels bbased on thhe priices (unit valuee

53、s) off the numerraire counttry; iii) Paaaschee leveel commparissons bbased on “oown-coountryy” pricces (uunit vvaluess); iiii) a Fisheer geoometriic aveerage of thhe twoo meassures. Binaary coompariisons, e.g. Germmany/UUSA annd UK/USA, couldd thenn be llinkedd withh the USA ass the star counttry. S

54、Such sstar ccomparrisonss coulld proovide a prooxy Geermanyy/UK ccomparrison, but it waas nott “traansitiive” (i.e. the rresultt woulld nott be iidentiical tto thaat derrived from a dirrect GGermanny/UK compaarisonn). Thhis waas nott a grreat ddrawbaack foor OEEEC couuntriees wheere thhe intter-coou

55、ntryy deviiationn in pperforrmancee leveels waas nott too wide. But Kraviis, Heeston and SSummerrs werre enggaged in coompariisons over a mucch widder raange oof perr capiita inncome. Theyy therreforee adoppted tthe Geeary-KKhamiss methhod, iinventted byy Roy Gearyy (18996-19883) annd Sallem Khhamis

56、, whicch mulltilatteraliised tthe reesultss, proovidedd trannsitivvity aand otther ddesiraable pproperrties. Theyy usedd it iin connjuncttion wwith tthe coommodiity prroductt dummmy metthod (CPD), inveented by Roobert Summeers, ffor fiillingg holees in the bbasic datasset. TTheir masteerpiecce wass

57、theiir thiird sttudy, the 11982 vvolumee Worlld Prooduct and IIncomee, whiich coontainned esstimattes foor 34 counttries (in AAfricaa, thee Amerricas, Asiaa and Europpe) inn 19755 pricces annd intternattionall Gearry-Khaamis ddollarrs. Thhese ccountrries aaccounnted ffor 644 per cent of woorld GGDP

58、inn 20011.Table 11 Natuure off PPP Conveerterss to EEstimaate GDDP Levvels iin thee Bencchmarkk Yearr 19900(billioon 19990 Geaary-Khhamis dollaars annd nummber oof couuntriees)Europe & Lattin Assia Affrica WorlddW. Offsshootss Amerrica ICP 15,273 (28) 22,131 (18) 8,0177 (24) 0 (00) 25,421 (70)PWT 59

59、 (3) 771 (144) 5244 (16) 891 (51) 1,5166 (84)Proxiess 16 (10) 338 (155) 87 (17) 14 (66) 1555 (48)Total 115,3499 (41) 2,2440 (477) 8,6628 (557) 9005 (577) 27,122(2202)Source: Madddison (20033), p. 230The UN Statiisticaal Offfice eextendded thhe ICPP workk and had ccovereed 84 counttries by 19985. UUN

60、SO tthen ddroppeed thiis enddeavouur, thhough some of thhe reggionall UN bbodiess conttinuedd withh it. The OOECD rrecommmencedd its compaarisonns on a reggular basiss in 11982. Its llatestt workk coveered tthe 288 OECDD counntriess and 20 otthers (in EEasterrn Eurrope, the 115 succcessoor staates o