1、Project Risk ManagementArt Or Science?.學習提示學習內容風險與風險管理的含義工程風險管理過程風險管理方案風險識別定性的風險分析定量的風險分析風險反響方案風險的監視與控制軟件的運用學習重點工程風險管理過程學習難點風險管理方案風險評價What risk is A basic dictionary definition says that risk is “the possibility of loss or injuryRisk is uncertainty that have a Negative Or positive effect on meeting

2、project objectivesNegativeRisk(1960S-1970S)A general definition(1980S-1990S)風險的屬性f (probability, impact)f (threat insurance chance)certainRiskUncertain.Project risk managementProject risk management is the art and science of identifying, analyzing, and responding to risk throughout the life of a pro

3、ject and in the best interest of meeting the project objectives風險管理是對工程管理過程中如何處置風險事件的決策和控制過程工程風險管理是在工程生命期內，為了最大限制地滿足工程目的，識別、分析風險并做出相應反響的藝術和科學.Risk preferenceUtilityPotential payoffRisk neutralRisk-averseRisk seekingthe amount of satisfaction or pleasure received from a potential payoff.決策過程的三種規范確定形狀

4、風險不確定性Whats the difference between the crisis management and the risk management.Project management maturity by industry group and knowledge areaKEY : 1= Lowest Maturity rating 5=Highest Maturity RatingEngineering/constructiontelecommunicationsInformation systemsHi-TechmanufacturingScope3.523.453.25

5、3.37Time3.553.143.033.50Cost3.77Quality2.913.222.883.26Human resources33.18communication3.533.533.213.48risk2.932.872.752.76procurement3.333.012.913.33.It is important to note that: Risk management is an investment-there are cost associated with It. nature of the project,The e

6、xperience of the project team, constrains imposed on both Cost exceed potential benefitMinimizing potential negative riskWhile maximizing potential positive riskdependsgoalsprinciple.The major process involved in risk managementRisk management planningRisk identificationQualitative risk analysisQuan

7、titative risk analysisRisk response planningRisk monitoring and control編制風險管理方案識別風險風險的定性和定量分析編制風險應對方案風險監視與管理.謝 謝！.風險管理流程風險管理風險監控風險規劃風險評價風險應對反響風險文件風險識別風險分析反響線中：虛線表示存在反響實線表示能夠存在反響.風險應對方案/預備過程風險識別最高風險的清單制定風險應對戰略風險應對手段的選擇和分析最正確選擇風險應對工具最正確實施方法論證后的風險應對方案修訂最高風險的報告形狀報告其他步驟的反響風險分析風險優先級和整合實施風險應對方案能夠性與影響風險評價風險

8、監控和報告風險監控風險事件清單風險管理方案過程方案和控制組織和培訓風險規劃.Risk management planningRisk management planning is the process of deciding how to approach and plan for risk management activities for a project。A risk management plan documents the procedures for managing risk throughout the project風險管理方案編制就是決議采用何種方法進展風險管理活動并制

9、定相應方案管理過程。風險管理方案是管理整個工程生命期中的風險程序性文件.Topic addressed in a risk management planMethodology: how will risk management be performed on this project? What tools and data resources are available and applicable？Roles and responsibilities: who are the individuals responsible for implementing specific tasks

10、and providing deliverables related to risk management？Budget and schedule: what are the estimated cost and schedules for performing risk related activities？方法論：工程中的風險管理怎樣被執行？可以得到的并真實可行的工具和數據資源是什么?角色和責任：誰是執行特定義務并對風險管理提供可交付性成果的個人或群體？預算和進度：執行與與風險相關的進度和估計的本錢是多少？.Topic addressed in a risk management plan

11、Risk categories: what are the main categories of risks that should be addressed on this project? Is there a risk breakdown structure for the project?Risk probability and impact: how will the probabilities and impacts of risk items be assessed? What scoring and interpretation methods will be used for

12、 the qualitative and quantitative analysis of risksRisk documenting: what reporting formats and process will be used for risk management activities.風險的種類：工程中涉及的主要風險的種類有哪些？能否編制出與WBS和OBS相應工程風險構造分解圖？風險的概率和影響：風險工程發生的概率和對工程目的產生的影響如何評價？什么樣的打分和解釋的方法可用來定性和定量地分析工程風險？風險登記：采用怎樣的報告方式和流程用來登記風險管理活動。.Project docum

13、entsCorporate risk management policiesRisk categoriesLessons-learned reports from past projectTemplates for creating a risk management planThe risk tolerances of various stakeholders A risk management plan: summarizes how risk management will be performed on a particular project.完善的風險方案要挾與災禍應急方案與緩和方

14、案損失和破壞.不完善的風險方案要挾與災禍應急方案與緩和方案損失和破壞.Risk IdentificationIdentifying risk is the process of understanding what potential events might hurt or enhance a particular project。風險識別是了解能夠損害和加強特定工程效益的潛在風險事件的過程。Tools and techniquesThe risk register工程風險管理方案工程方案信息：任務分解構造：工程的產品描畫、工程的工期和本錢估計、資源規劃、采購方案、假設前提和限制條件；風險類

15、別歷史資料：工程文檔、公開發表的資料、工程團隊成員的知識和閱歷訪談法SWOT檢查表法假設前提分析圖示技術文件審核頭腦風暴德爾菲法Identified riskstriggers.Suggestions for identifying risksBrainstorming: is a techniques for by which a group attempts to generate ideas or find a solution for a specific problem by amassing ideas spontaneously and without judgmentDelph

16、i technique is to derive a consensus among a panel of experts who make predictions about future developmentsInterviewing: is a fact-finding technique for collecting information in face-to-face, phone, , or instant-messaging discussions.The Risk RegisterA risk register is a document that contains res

17、ults of various risk management process, often displayed in a table or spreadsheet format. It is a tool for documenting potential risk events and related information。Risk events refer to specific, uncertain events that may occur to the detriment or enhancement of the project風險登記表是一種記錄各種風險管理過程結果的文件，通

18、常以表格的方式給出，是用來描畫潛在風險事件和相關信息的文件風險事件是指那些特定的能夠對工程產生有利或不利影響的不確定事件.Sample Risk RegisterNORANKRISKDESCRIPTIONCATEGORYROOT CAUSETRIGGERSPOTENTIAL RESPONSESRISK OWERPROBABILITYIMPACTSTATUSR441R212.Qualitative Risk AnalysisProbability/impactMatrix or chartTop ten item trackingExpert judgment.Sample probabilit

19、y/impact Matrixrisk6risk9Risk1risk4Risk3risk7Risk2Risk5risk11Risk8risk10risk12highmediumlowhighmediumlowimpactprobability.LowriskMediumriskHighrisk.Top ten risk item tracking: it maintains an awareness of risks through out of the life of a project. MONTHLY RANKINGRISK EVENRANK THIS MONTHRANK LAST MO

20、NTHNUMBER OF MONTH IN TOP TENRISK RESOLUTION PROGRESSInadequate planning124Working on revising the entire project management planPoor definition233Holding meetings with project customer and sponsor or to clarify scopeAbsence of leadership312After previous project manager quiet, assigned a new one to

21、 lead a project.Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Exampledecision probability0.10.7$300,000-$40,000-$50,000-$20,000$60,000=+$60,000-$32,000-$10,000-$2,000$42,000Project 1Project 2outcome=EMVPROJECT1S EMV=$60,00-$32,000=$28,000Project 2,s EMA=-$10,000-$2,000+$42,000=$30,000.SIMULATIONA more soph

22、isticated quantitative risk analysis technique is simulation, simulation uses a representation or model of a system to analyze the expected behavior or performance of the system.Most simulations are based on some form of Monte Carlo analysis.風險的定性分析風險的定量分析定義定性風險分析是評估已識別風險的影響和可能性的過程。這一過程按風險對項目目標可能的影響

23、對風險進行排序。定量風險分析過程的目標是量化分析每一風險的概率及其對項目目標造成的后果，也分析項目總體風險的程度作用與目的識別具體風險和指導風險應對；根據各風險對于項目目標的潛在影響對風險進行排序通過比較風險值確定風險總體級別。測定某一特定項目目標的概率；量化項目的風險影響，決定項目可能需要的成本和時間的應急儲備；通過量化各風險對項目目標的影響程度，贈別出最需要關注的風險相互聯系風險的定量分析一般在風險的定性分析之后進行。風險的定性分析與風險的定量分析可以分別單獨使用，也可以一起使用，這決定于項目的時間、預算的要求和風險以及影響對風險性定量說明的需要。.需要提供的信息和依據風險管理計劃已識別的

24、風險項目狀態項目類型數據精確性概率范圍及后果假設前提風險管理計劃已識別的風險風險優先次序清單歷史信息專家判斷其他計劃編制的輸出運用的方法與工具訪談概率/影響風險等級評分矩陣專家判斷法十大風險項目跟蹤風險概率和影響敏感性分析決策樹分析模擬（蒙特卡羅分析）分析的結果項目總體風險等級項目優先次序清單需進一步分析和管理的風險清單風險定性分析結果中反映的趨勢。經量化的風險優先次序清單項目概率分析完成成本和時間目標的概率定量分析結果中反映的趨勢.風險應對方案的編制概念：針對已識別的風險制定行動方案和確定行動措施的過程，其目的在于添加實現工程目的的時機，減少對工程的要挾。這一過程包括確定和分派相應的人員和單

25、位擔任每項風險應對措施，保證已識別的風險可以得到適宜的處置。.工程風險應對方案risk register)序號風險事件風險的影響應對策略具體應對措施負責人.Risk Response Planning The basic response strategies for negative risk:Risk avoidanceRisk acceptanceRisk transferenceRisk mitigationThe basic response strategies for positive risks:Risk exploitationRisk sharingRisk enhance

26、mentRisk acceptance.風險應對戰略躲避風險：經過變卦工程方案，從而消除風險和產生風險的條件，或者維護工程的目的免受風險的影響。如減少工程范圍、延伸工期、采用成熟的技術、防止運用缺乏閱歷的承包商。轉移風險：設法將風險的結果連同對風險應對的權益轉讓給第三方。轉移風險需求付出相應的本錢包括：保險費、履約保證金、擔保費用等。緩解風險：采取一定措施將某一負面風險影響事件的概率和其后果將地道到一種可以接受的限制。緩解風險應留意本錢收益的比較，保證風險管理投資的合理性。接受風險：當某一風險的影響在可接受的范圍之內，或者工程團隊沒能找到其他適宜的風險應對戰略時，不改動原有方案去應對某一風險。

27、采用接受風險的戰略需求制定：應急方案contingency plan), 退卻方案fallback plan)、應急補助和貯藏contingency allowance。 .Risk Monitoring And ControlRisk monitoring and control involves executing the risk management processes to respond to risk evens.Executing the risk management process means ensuring that risk awareness is an ongoi

28、ng activity performed by the entire project team throughout the entire project.Reassessment, risk audits, varianceAnd trend analysis, technical performance measurements, reserve analysis,And status meetings or periodic risk reviews such as The top ten risk item tracking method Tools and technicalReq

29、uested changes, Recommended corrective and preventive actions, And updates to the risk register, project management plan, Organizational process assets, such as lessons-learned information that might help future projectoutput.風險監控風險的監控就是對工程的風險進展監視和控制，包括：跟蹤已識別的風險、監視剩余風險和識別新的風險；保證風險管理方案和風險應對方案的執行和實施；評

30、價這些方案對于遞減風險的有效性工程風險監視和控制包括在整個工程過程中.風險監控的目的風險應對方案能否有效實施？風險應對措施能否有效？工程假設前提能否依然成立；風險暴露程度與以前的情況相比能否發生變化，如發生，做出趨勢分析；某一風險觸發器/征兆能否曾經發生；適當的組織政策和管理程序能否得到服從；能否有新的風險.風險監控的方法與措施建立風險數據庫；定期對工程風險進展審核；完善風險管理責任制度。.Broad categories of risks might include:MarketriskFinancialriskTechnology riskPeople riskStructure/proc

31、essrisk.Sample risk breakdown structureIT ProjectCompetitionsuppliersCash flowHardwaresoftwarenetworkExecutive supportuser supportteam supportestimatecommunicationresourceProject managementTechnicalBusinessOrganizational.每一階段的典型風險事件全生命期四個階段工程同意工程初始方案和詳細方案執行終了缺乏主要專家問題定義不明確無可行性研討目的不明確購買經過競標無風險管理方案方案草率缺乏準確參數傳播不準確角色定義不明確團隊缺乏閱歷員工缺乏技藝資料可獲得性罷工天氣范圍變卦進度變卦管理制度要求無順應的控制系統質量差客戶不接受基建規模更改現金流動問題總體工程風險風險投資總額.Potential negative risk conditions associated with ea