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出口成為機(jī)械行業(yè)重要驅(qū)動(dòng)力
1400012000100008000600040002000025%20%15%10%5%140012001000800600400200040%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%0%-5%2014
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2023:SITC:74::():::SITC:74()yoyyoy
yoy45040035030025020015010050140%120%100%80%5045403530252015105100%80%60%40%20%0%60%40%20%0%0-20%20182019yoy20202021202220230-20%yoyyoy
14100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%121086420201820192020202120222023-10%::()yoy
16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%2020202120222023
80%60%40%20%0%2020/03
2020/06
2020/09
2020/12
2021/03
2021/06
2021/09
2021/12
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2024/03-20%:::()::::():::()-40%150%130%110%90%70%50%30%10%-10%-30%-50%::::()::::()
70656055504540353060%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%::PMIPMI::PMI(ISM):PMICRB::礦山機(jī)械：下游需求高景氣，國(guó)產(chǎn)設(shè)備廠商獲切入機(jī)遇13
(19911100)80010001000900800700600500400300200100045040035030025020015010050900800700600500400300200100070060050040030020010000
900800700600500400300200100020202021202220232024E
yoyyoy4580%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%987654321080%60%40%20%0%403530252015105-20%-40%-60%-10%-20%-30%02012
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20232012
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2022202320242023
yoy2024
yoy2022202320242023
yoy2024
yoy4540353025201510560%50%40%30%20%10%0%4.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.0100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%0
1401201008080%60%40%20%0%yoyyoy6040-20%-40%2002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023
yoyyoy20015010050300%200%100%0%250020001500100050018%16%14%12%10%8%-100%-200%-300%-400%6%4%2%02014201520162017201820192020202120220%0-2%-50201420152016201720182019202020212022
YoY2.521.510.50-0.5-1船舶：全球競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力持續(xù)提升21
DWT10000+DWTDWTTEU353025201510570060050040030020010000-100
100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
YOY80080%60%40%20%0%504070060050040030020010003020100-20%-40%-10-20-30鐵路裝備：維保需求爆發(fā)增長(zhǎng)，新車需求持續(xù)復(fù)蘇27
()()()400350300250200150100500201920202021202220231-4M24
YOY900080007000600050004000300020001000025%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220231-4M24
350180160140120100806040200201920202021202220231-5M24
YOYYOY25002000150010005006%1401201008070%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%-8%-10%604020-10%-20%0020172018201920202021202220231Q2420172018201920202021202220231Q24工程機(jī)械：出口增長(zhǎng)延續(xù)，內(nèi)需企穩(wěn)34
yoy2502001501005025%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%0
2022
20232022
202310987654321070%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
yoyyoy300000250000200000150000100000500000120%100%80%160001400012000100008000600040002000080%60%40%60%20%40%0%20%-20%-40%-60%-80%0%-20%-40%-60%2008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023
38通用機(jī)械：全球競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力提升，國(guó)內(nèi)需求邊際復(fù)蘇39
%353025201510580%60%40%20%0%252015105PPI%0-5-10-15-200-20%-40%-5::(%)
:::(%):::(%)8060506040403020201000-20-40-10-20
Ⅳ+ⅤⅠⅡⅢ1401201008080%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%6040-10%-20%-30%2002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023
100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%YoY1870%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%/1614121086-10%-20%-30%-40%4202008
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4540353025201510580%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%-10%-20%00%2012
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20232010
2011
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30%25%20%15%10%5%0%2013
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100%80%60%40%20%0%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%201520162017201820192020202120222023201520162017201820192020202120222023-20%
12%10%8%80%60%40%20%0%6%4%2014
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1Q242%-20%-40%0%2014
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1Q24
*yoy::()yoy2502001501005040%30%20%10%0%900080007000600050004000300020001000040%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-10%-20%02014201520162017201820192020202120222023
()YoY():://876543210120%100%80%25014121082001501005060%40%20%60%4-20%-40%-60%2002018201920202021202220231Q24202020222023E2030E
1210870%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%642-10%-20%0201820192020202120222023()yoy
5004504003503002502001501005050%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%02000
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2023YoY52
2021202220232024YoY100%80%60%40%20%0%45000400003500030000250002000015000100005000450%400%350%300%250%200%150%100%50%0%-50%-100%01-02
1-03
1-04
1-05
1-06
1-07
1-08
1-09
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1-11
1-12-20%53
YoYYoY9025%20%15%10%5%252015105100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%8070605040302010000%202220231Q202454
55
//7.57.06.56.05.55.020212022202356
YoY/1.890%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%1.2111.411.2111.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.010.810.610.410.2100.80.60.40.209.8-10%-20%9.69.4201920202021202220231Q202420231Q202457農(nóng)機(jī)：出口高增，拖拉機(jī)大型化帶動(dòng)龍頭持續(xù)集中58
1210850%40%30%20%10%0%7000600050004000300020001000040%30%2
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