28十二月2023財務報表分析與證券投資姜國華TheFatherofAccounting-LucaPacioli

(1445-1517)HewroteafamousmathematicsbookInonechapterheinventeddouble-entryaccountingsystemHetaughtLeonardoDaVinciperspectiveandproportionality.Theknowledgewasusedtopaint“theLastSupper”2學過財務報表分析課程的請舉手3DowJonesIndustrialAverage1930-20024DJIA,NASDAQ1990-20025BacktoSquareOne:DJIA1998-20026DorDot.bomb-NASDAQ1998-20027TheThreeMajorStockExchanges8TheRegulatorofU.S.StockMarketSEC,theSecuritiesandExchangeCommissionArthurLevitt,commissioner,1993-2000intheClintonadministrationNumbersGameSpeech,19989TheCurrentSECCommissioners10WhoIssueAmericanAccountingStandards?FASB:FinancialAccountingStandardsBoard Setupin1973toreplaceAccountingPrincipleBoard(APB) Anindependent,privateorganization StandardsissuedrecognizedbySEC

GAAP:GenerallyAcceptedAccountingStandards 7conceptstatements(principles) e.g.,No.7(February2000)Usingcashflowinformationandpresentvalueinaccountingmeasurements 148statementsofstandards(rules)bytheyearof2003 e.g.,No.1(December1973)Disclosureofforeigncurrencytranslationinformation11InternationalAccountingStandardsInternationalAccountingStandardsCommittee(IASC) BasedatLondon Independentandprivatelyfunded Meanttodesignasetofworldlyacceptedaccountingstandards Committeeserveasanadvisoryboardmember

.ukInternationalAccountingStandards 41standardsuptotheyearof2003 e.g.,IAS2.Inventory,January1,199512“BigFour”InternationalAccountingFirmsErnstYoung(worldwiderevenue2002:$10.1billions,4.3billionsintheU.S.)PriceWaterhouseCoopersDeloitte&ToucheKPMG13中華人民共和國證券監督管理委員會

(ChineseSecuritiesRegulatoryCommission)14NumberofStocksatShanghaiandShenzhenstockexchanges15AmountofCapitalRaisedThroughStockMarkets16MarketCapitalization17MarketSizerelativetoNYSE18MarketPerformance19ProfitabilityofChineseListedFirms:1992-200420ROE21

StockMarketCapitalization/GDP(%)

22SharetypesinChinaSharesTradableNon-tradableIndividualForeignLegalpersonStateAshareBshareH,N,S,…Share2324ShareStructuresofChineseListedCompanies

(December,2001)Non-tradable(0.1billionshares): StateShares2410.6146.20％ DomesticLegalPersonShares663.1712.71％ Othernon-tradableShares331.076.4%Totalnon-tradable3404.8565.25％Tradable: AShares1318.1325.26%BShares163.093.13%H/Nandothershares331.946.36%TotalTradable:1813.1634.75%Total:5218.01100%25LargeShareholderexpropriationofminorityshareholders/TunnelingAnExample,Jiang,LeeandYue,(2005)2627China’sStockMarket:Aten-yearperspectiveFromzerotoanimportantemergingcapitalmarketFirstdevelopedfast,thenbecamestagnant: Fewernewlistings Marketindexdown Raiseslesscapital Lesstradingactivities ListedcompaniesperformedworseOverallLessimportantintheboomingeconomy!28TheUsersoffinancialstatementsEquityinvestorsCreditorsGovernmentCustomerSuppliersLaborunion29課程結構第一節會計信息與資本市場介紹第二節會計報表回顧-資產負債表第三節會計報表回顧-損益表第四節會計報表回顧-現金流量表第五節贏余管理與贏余質量第六節贏利能力分析第七節贏利預測第八節風險分析第九節證券價值評估30PerspectivesofThisCourseAsecurityanalyst’sperspectiveEmphasizetwoissues:EarningsManagementandvaluation31EarningsManagement:Rao,Teoh,Wong,ReviewofAccountingStudies,199832EarningsRestatements–MinWu,HKUST333435WidespreadEarningsManipulation(JiangandWang2005)36Accounting-basedValuationWhoaremypeers?Earningsmultiples,book-valuemultiples,salesmultiplesEVA?,Economicvalueadded,Residualincomevaluation(RIV),Edward,Bell,OhlsonModel(EBO)Inoneword,Sharevalue=f(earnings,bookvalue,dividend,cashflow,etc.)37Accounting-basedValuation-2Ultimately,wedovaluationtoearnhigherreturnsonstocktrading.Wegetanintrinsicvaluenumber,compareittoprevailingstockprice,ifourvalueestimateishigherthanprice,webuy;otherwisewesell.FrankelandLee,JournalofFinance,1999

Togetpapersmentioned,fromaPKUcomputer,gotoorjustaskfromme.38HowImportantisAccountingInformation?January22,2003,aftermarketclosed,AT&T(stocksymbolT)announced: Revenuefor4thquartershrankto$9.3billionfrom10.2billioninthe4thquarterofpreviousyear

Lossfromcontinuingoperationswidenedto$611millionfrom$216million.

39HowImportantisAccountingInformation?

(http:\\)40HowImportantisAccountingInformation?IntheweekendbeforeMonday,Feb.3,2003,Mattel(MAT)announcedfourthquarterresults:Revenueincreasedfromthefourthquarterayearearlierby6.9%to$1.56billion.Netincomeincreasedby35%to$186.1million.Earningspershare(EPS)increasedto42centsfrom31cents.41HowImportantisAccountingInformation?42ValueInvesting:WarrenBuffett

()43InvestingMottoTwofriendswenthuntinginthejungle.Allofasudden,abearjumpedoutofnowhereandcameafterthem.A:Run!B:No,itishop