PricelevelsandExchangeRateintheLongRunWONGKaFu7thFebruary2001BasicmathreviewX=A/BlnX=lnA-lnBY=Y(x)dlnY/dx=dlnY/dYdY/dx=(1/Y)(dY/dx)BasicmathreviewP=P(t)dlnP/dt=dlnP/dPdP/dt=(1/P)(dP/dt)Takethechangeoft(dt)fromstos+1.dlnP/dt=[1/P(s)][P(s+1)-P(s)/1]=[P(s+1)-P(s)]/P(s)=percentagechangeinPattimes.LawofonepriceInacompetitivemarketsfreeof1.transportationcostsand2.officialbarrierstotrade(suchastariffs),identicalgoodssoldindifferentcountriesmustsellforthesamepricewhentheirpricesareexpressedintermsofthesamecurrency.Lawofonepriceimpliesexchangerate

Foranygoodisoldinbothhomeandforeigncountries PHi=(EH/F)(PFi)Hence,theimpliedexchangerateis EH/F=PHi/PFiAbsolutePurchasingPowerParity(AbsolutePPP)Foragivenreferencecommoditybasketsoldinboththehomeandtheforeigncountries PH

=(EH/F)(PF)Hence,theimpliedexchangerateis EH/F=PH

/PFTheimpliedexchangeratefromtheEconomist’sBigMacindexRelativePPPPricesandexchangerateschangesuchthattheratioofeachcurrency’sdomesticandforeignpurchasingpowersarepreserved.Hence, (EH/F,t-EH/F,t-1)/EH/F,t-1=H,t

-F,twheret

=(Pt-Pt-1)/Pt-1RelativePPPIfabsolutePPPdoesnotholdbecauseoffrictionsandotherfactorsandwehaveEH/F=PH

/PFwhereisaconstantthatmeasuresthedifferencefromabsolutePPP.EH/F(t)=PH

(t)/PF(t)lnEH/F(t)=ln+lnPH

(t)-lnPF(t)Takingderivativewithrespecttot:dlnEH/F(t)/dt=dln/dt+dlnPH

(t)/dt-dlnPF(t)/dtRelativePPPHence, (EH/F,t-EH/F,t-1)/EH/F,t-1=H,t

-F,twheret

=(Pt-Pt-1)/Pt-1percentagechangeinEH/F,t

=percentagechangeinPH,t

-percentagechangeinPF,tLong-runexchangeratebasedonabsolutePPP

EH/F=PH

/PFPH=MHs/L(RH,YH)PF=MFs/L(RF,YF)Monetarypolicy=moneysupplyEffectofanincreaseinhomemoneysupplyonLREH/FMHs

PHEH/FbecausePH=MHs/L(RH,YH)becauseEH/F=PH

/PFEffectofanincreaseinforeignmoneysupplyonLREH/FMFs

PFEH/FbecausePF=MFs/L(RF,YF)becauseEH/F=PH

/PFEffectofanincreaseinhomeinterestrateonLREH/FRH

PHEH/FbecausePH=MHs/L(RH,YH)becauseEH/F=PH

/PFLHbecauseL(RH,YH)InterestratecanchangeduetoreasonsotherthanmonetarypolicyForexample:technologyadvancementmayimprovetheprofitabilityofinvestmentandhencetheinterestratewillingtopaytoborrowmoneytoinvest.FactorsthatarenotalreadyexplicitbutimplicitintheL(R,Y)functionEffectofanincreaseinforeigninterestrateonLREH/FRF

PFEH/FbecausePF=MFs/L(RF,YF)becauseEH/F=PH

/PFLFbecauseL(RF,YF)EffectofanincreaseinhomeoutputonLREH/FYH

PHEH/FbecausePH=MHs/L(RH,YH)becauseEH/F=PH

/PFLHbecauseL(RH,YH)EffectofanincreaseinforeignoutputonLREH/FYF

PFEH/FbecausePF=MFs/L(RF,YF)becauseEH/F=PH

/PFLFbecauseL(RF,YF)Long-runexchangeratebasedonabsolutePPP

EH/F=PH

/PFPH=MHs/L(RH,YH)PF=MFs/L(RF,YF)EH/F=(MHs/MFs)[L(RF,YF)/L(RH,YH)]Howislong-runexchangeratedetermined?Anythingthatraises(lowers)LHlowers(raises)EH/F

Anythingthatlowers(raises)LFlowers(raises)EH/F

Anincrease(Adecrease)inMHsraises(lowers)EH/F

Anincrease(Adecrease)inMFslowers(raises)EH/F

Growthrateofmoneysupply:amathematicalderivationMoneysupplylevel:MHs(t)Growthrate:(MHs(t+1)-MHs(t))/MHs(t)

Definey(t)=ln(MHs(t))dy(t)/d(t)=dln(MHs(t))/dt=dy(t)/dMHs(t)dMHs(t)/dt=1/MHs(t)dMHs(t)/dtdt=t+1-t=1FishereffectUncoveredinterestparity: RH,t=[EH/F,t+1e-EH/F,t

]/EH/F,t

+RF,tlett+1e=(Pt+1e-Pt)/Ptandt+1=(Pt+1-Pt)/PtRelativePPP: (EH/F,t+1-EH/F,t)/EH/F,t=H,t+1

-F,t+1(EH/F,t+1e-EH/F,t)/EH/F,t=H,t+1e-F,t+1eRH,t-RF,t

=H,t+1e-F,t+1eIfMHSisgrowingatarateof

PHgrowsatarateof

becausePH=MHs/L(RH,YH)I.e.,expectH,t+1

=

or,H,t+1e=Hence,RH,t-RF,t

=H,t+1e-F,t+1e

=

ifF,t+1e=0IfMHSisgrowingatarateof

Slope=t0Log(MHS)IfMHSisgrowingatarateof

t0RHRH1IfMHSisgrowingatarateof

t0Log(PH)Slope=IfMHSisgrowingatarateof

t0Log(EH/F)Slope=IfMHSisgrowingatarateof

(+)PHgrowsatarateof

(

+)becausePH=MHs/L(RH,YH)I.e.,expectH,t+1

=(

+);or,H,t+1e=(

+)Hence,RH,t-RF,t

=H,t+1e-F,t+1e

=(

+)ifF,t+1e=0IftherateofMHSgrowthincreasesfrom

to(+)SupposeRF,t

fixedandF,t+1e=0becauseastablemonetarypolicy,forexample.RH,tincreasesbybecause

H,t+1eisexpectedtoincreaseby.Notethat,however,MHSdoesnotchangeattimet0--onlythefuturegrowthrateHence,PHhastojumpfromPH1=MHs/L(RH1,YH)toPH2=MHs/L(RH2,YH)EffectofanincreaseinthegrowthrateofMHSSlope=Slope=+t0Log(MHS)EffectofanincreaseinthegrowthrateofMHSt0RHRH1RH2=RH1+

EffectofanincreaseinthegrowthrateofMHSt0Log(PH)Slope=Slope=+EffectofanincreaseinthegrowthrateofMHSt0Log(EH/F)Slope=Slope=+ThelessonlearntismuchmoregeneralThestorywas:Achangeinmoneysupplygrowthleadstochangeinexpectedinflation.Achangeinexpectedinflationleadstoajumpininterestrate.(ThroughFisher)Ajumpininterestrateleadstoajumpinexchangerate.Moregenerally,Anythingthatcauseachangeinexpectedinflationwillleadtoajumpininterestrate.Ajumpininterestrateleadstoajumpinexchangerate.ThelessonlearntismuchmoregeneralWhatwillcauseachangeinexpectedinflation?Thereleaseofeconomicindicators(say,unemployment,GDP,interestrate,confidenceindex,etc.)maychangeourexpectationofinflation.Anyreleaseofindicatorsthatcauseachangeinexpectedinflationwillleadtoajumpinexchangerate.

EmpiricaltestPH

=(EH/F)(PF)lnPH

=lnEH/F+lnPFRegression:lnPH,t

=0+1

lnEH/F,t+2

lnPF,t+torlnPH,t

=0+1

lnEH/F,t+2

lnPF,t+3

Xt+twhereXtservesasacontrolvariable.Hypotheses:AbsolutePPPimplies0=0,1=1,2=1RelativePPPimplies0=?,1=1,2=1EmpiricalevidenceonAbsolutePPPWayoffthemark:Thepricesofidenticalcommoditybaskets,whenconvertedtoasinglecurrency,differsubstantiallyacrosscountries.EmpiricalevidenceonRelativePPPUsuallyperformspoorlyalthoughitsometimesisareasonableapproximationtothedata.Morereliableinthe1960sasaguidetotherelationshipamonginflationandnationalpricelevelsbutlesssosince1970s.WhyPPPfails?TransportcostsandrestrictionontradeMonopolisticoroligopolisticpracticesingoodsmarketsMeasuresofinflationdifferacrosscountries.Exchangeratepass-through(ERPT)Thepercentagechangeinlocalcurrencyimportpricesresultingfromaonepercentchangeintheexchangeratebetweentheexportingandimportingcountries.FullorcompleteERPTifthefollowingtwoconditionsaremet:constantmarkupsofpriceovercost(e.g.,whenindustriesareperfectlycompetitive,andmarkupsareconstantatzero)andconstantmarginalcost.Exchangeratepass-through(ERPT)Empirical: ln(pt)=a+bXt+cln(Et)+dZt+etpt:localcurrencyimportpriceXt:ameasureofexporter’scostZt:importdemandshiftersEt:theexchangerate(importer’scurrencyperunitofexporter’scurrency)TheinterpretationofcC=d[lnP]/d[lnE]={d[lnP]/dt}/{d[lnE]/dt}=%changeinP/%changeinEERPTis“full”or“complete”ifc=1andis“incomplete”ifc<1.Exchangeratepass-through(ERPT)Empirical: ln(pt)=a+bXt+cln(Et)+dZt+etEstimateofcisaround60%.Thisimpliesthat40%oftheexchangeratechangewasoffsetbychangesinthemarkup.PricingtoMarketConsideramonopolisticfirmthatsellsitsproductinncountries(I.e.,nsegmentedmarkets)Itsobjectiveistomaximizeprofit (p1,…,pn)=piqi(Eipi,vi)-C(qi(Eipi,vi),w)PricingtoMarket (p1,…,pn)=piqi(Eipi,vi)-C(qi(Eipi,vi),w) piisthepricechargedini-thmarket,inthefirm’sdomesticcurrency qi(Eipi,vi)isthedemandini-thmarket,afunctionofEipi,priceini-thforeigncurrencyandvi,somedemandshifters(say,income). Thus,piqi(Eipi,vi)isthetotalrevenueindomesticcurrency. C(qi(Eipi,vi),w)isthetotalcostofproducingqi(Eipi,vi)andwisthefactorsthatmayshiftproductioncost.PricingtoMarket (p1,…,pn)=piqi(Eipi,vi)-C(qi(Eipi,vi),w) Notethatwithoutexchangerate,Ei,theproblemisthesameasthestandardproblemofamonopolymaximizingprofitsinnsegmentedmarkets.Weshouldallknowitssolutionfrombasicmicroeconomics.PricingtoMarketTheoptimalexportpriceistheproductofthecommonmarginalcostandadestination-specificmarkup:pi=Cq[-i/(-i+1)]whereCqisthemarginalcost,iistheabsolutevalueoftheelasticityofdemandintheforeignmarketwithrespecttochangesinprice,pi.PricingtoMarketThus,pricesaredifferentacrossmarketsandarerelatedtoadestination-specificmarkupwhichisafunctionofdemandelasticity.Ifpricingtomarketbehaviordominates,PPPisunlikelytohold.Furtherreadings:Goldberg,PinelopiKoujianouandMichaelM.Knetter(1997):“GoodsPricesandExchangeRates:WhatHaveweLearned?”JournalofEconomicLiterature,Vol.XXXV(September,1997),pp.1243-1272.EmpiricaltestofFisher’sEquationRH,t-RF,t

=H,t+1e-F,t+1eH,t+1e-F,t+1e=RH,t-RF,t(H,t+1

-F,t+1)e=RH,t-RF,t(H,t+1

-F,t+1)=RH,t-RF,t+t where(H,t+1

-F,t+1)=(H,t+1

-F,t+1)e+tRuntheregression(H,t+1

-F,t+1)=+(RH,t-RF,t)+tshouldget0and

1EvidenceCumbyandObstfeld(1984)andMishkin(1984)bothrejectedthehypothesis.RealexchangerateTherealexchangeratebetweentwocountries’currenciesisabroadsummarymeasureofthepricesofonecountry’sgoodsandservicesrelativetotheother’s.qH/F

=(EH/F

PF)/PH

PF:priceofabasketofforeigngoodsinforeigncurrencyPH

:priceofadifferent

basketofhomegoodsinhomecurrencyRealExchangeRatehomegoodshomecurrencyforeigngoodsforeigncurrencyPHPFEH/FRealexchangerateqH/F

=(EH/F

PF)/PHTheunitsofhomegoodbasketperforeigngoodbasket.Therelativepriceofforeigngoodbasketintermsofhomegoodbaskets.Realdepreciation:ariseinqH/F

Factorsaffectingthelong-runrealexchangerateAchangeinrelativeoutputdemandAnincreaseinworldrelativedemandforhomeoutputcausesalong-runrealappreciationofthehomecurrencyagainsttheforeigncurrency(I.e.,afallinqH/F

)AchangeinrelativeoutputsupplyArelativeexpansionofhomeoutputcausesalong-runrealdepreciationofthehomecurrencyagainsttheforeigncurrency(I.e.,riseinqH/F

)NominalandRealexchangeratesinlong-runequilibriumqH/F

=(EH/F

PF)/PHEH/F=qH/F(PH/PF)NotethatunderAbsolutePPP,qH/F=1.ThusthefactthatqH/Fmaynotequal1allowsthepossibledeviationsfromAbsolutePPP.ThisdeviationqH/Fisanadditionaldeterminantofthenominalexchangerate.EffectofanincreaseinhomemoneysupplylevelMHs

PHEH/FbecausePH=MHs/L(RH,YH)becauseEH/F=qH/F(PH/PF)RH,YH,qH/FWhy?EffectofanincreaseinhomemoneysupplygrowthrateGrowthofMHs

YH,qH/FEH/FbecauseanominalchangehasnorealeffectbecauseEH/F=qH/F(PH/PF)RHPH=MHs/L(RH,YH)HBecauseFisher:RH,t-RF,t

=H,t+1e-F,t+1eEffectofanincreaseinworldrelativedemandforhomepdtsRelativedemandforhomepdtsEH/FbecauseEH/F=qH/F(PH/PF)qH/FEffectofanincreaseinrelativehomesupplyRelativehomesupplyEH/F?becauseEH/F=qH/F(PH/PF)qH/FLHPH=MHs/L(RH,YH)PHEH/FEH/FL(RH,YH)AninsightinthefailureofrelativePPPWhenalldisturbancesaremonetaryinnature,exchangeratesobeyrelativePPPinthelongrun.Whendisturbancesoccurinoutputmarkets,theexchangerateisunlikelytoobeyrelativePPP,eveninthelongrun(becauseqH/Fmaychangeovertime).FishereffectwithrealexchangeratemovementqH/F

=(EH/F

PF)/PH(qH/F,t+1-qH/F,t

)/qH/F,t

=(EH/F,t+1-EH/F,t)/EH/F,t+F,t+1

-H,t+1(qH/F,t+1e

-qH/F,t

)/qH/F,t

=(EH/F,t+1e-EH/F,t)/EH/F,t+F,t+1e-H,t+1eRH,t-RF,t=(qH/F,t+1e

-qH/F,t

)/qH/F,t

+H,t+1e-F,t+1ebecauseRH,t=[EH/F,t+1e-EH/F,t

]/EH/F,t

+RF,tRealinterestparityDefinere=R-erH,te-rF,te=(RH,t-H,t+1e)

-

(

RF,t-F,t+1e)rH,te-rF,te=(qH/F,t+1e

-qH/F,t

)/qH/F,t

IfrelativePPPholdsrH,te-rF,te=0I.e.rH,te=rF,te

EmpiricaltestofFisher’sEquationRH,t-RF,t

=H,t+1e-F,t+1eH,t+1e-F,t+1e=RH,t-RF,t(H,t+1

-F,t+1)e=RH,t-RF,t(H,t+1

-F,t+1)=RH,t-RF,t+t where(H,t+1

-F,t+1)=(H,t+1

-F,t+1)e+tRuntheregression(H,t+1

-F,t+1)=+(RH,t-RF,t)+tshouldget0and

1EvidenceCumbyandObstfeld(1984)andMishkin(1984)bothrejectedthehypothesis.Reason?PPPandUIPdonotholdandrealinterestparityisderivedfromthem.Wanttoknowmore...Chapter15ofKrugmanandObstfeldespeciallyforvariouscasestudiesGibson,HeatherD.(1996):INTERNATIONALFINANCE,LongmanPublishing,NewYork.Chapter2fordiscussionofempiricalevidence.謝謝觀看/歡迎下載BYFAITHIMEANAVISIONOFGOODONECHERISHESANDTHEENTHUSIASMTHATPUSHESONETOSEEKITSFULFILLMENTREGARDLESSOFOBSTACLES.BYFAITHIBYFAITH一本萬利工程1、背景驅動2、盈利策略3、選菜試菜4、價值創造5、完美呈現6、成功面試7、持續改造（一）、一本萬利工程的背景驅動

1、什么是一本萬利

2、餐飲時代的變遷菜單經驗的指導方針運營市場定位的體現經營水平的體現體現餐廳的特色與水準溝通的工具餐廳對顧客的承諾菜單承諾的六大表現1、名字的承諾2、質量的承諾3、價格的承諾4、規格標準的承諾5、外文翻譯的準確6、保證供應的承諾

1、顧客滿意度餐廳價值、價格、合理感、愉快感、安心感、美味感、便利感、滿足感、有價值感、喜悅感、特別感2-2、初期投資餐廳面積、保證金、設備投資、店鋪裝潢、器具用品投資、制服選定、菜單制作2-1、開業準備廚具、供應商選定、設計、用品選定、餐廳配置、員工訓練、餐廳氣氛、促銷方式3、經營數據營業額、客流量、成本率、人均消費、顧客回頭率、出品速度、人事費用菜單內容決定決定相關相關決定決定決定決定以菜單為導向的硬件投資

1、餐廳的裝修風格2、硬件設施服務操作3、餐廳動線4、餐具與家俬5、廚房布局6、廚房設備菜單設計正果1、能誘導顧客購買你想讓他買的餐點2、能迅速傳達餐廳要表達的東西3、雙贏：顧客喜歡、餐廳好賣餐廳時代的變遷食物時代硬體時代軟體時代心體時代食物食品饑食飽食品質挑食品味品食品德懼食體驗人們正在追尋更多的感受，更多的意義更多的體驗，更多的幸福（二）盈利策略1、組建工程團隊2、確定核心價值3、確定盈利目標4、確定客單價5、設計盈利策略6、確定核心產品誰來設計菜單？產品=做得出來的物品商品=賣得出去的物品商家=產品具備商品附加值物（什么產品）+事（滿足顧客何種需求）從物到事從食物到餐飲從吃什么到為什么吃產品本身決定一本，產品附加值決定萬利從生理到心理從物質到精神從概念到五覺體驗創造產品的五覺附加值體驗何來

一家企業以服務為舞臺以商品為道具，讓消費者完全投入的時候，體驗就出現了PART01物=你的企業賣什么產品+事=能滿足顧客何種需求？確定核心價值理念核心價值理念1、賣什么樣的菜2、賣什么樣的氛圍？3、如何接待顧客？賣給誰？賣什么事？賣什么價？企業目標的設定1、理論導向的目標設定2、預算3、制定利潤目標費用營業額虧損區利潤區臨界點變動費用總費用營業額曲線費用線X型損益圖利潤導向的目標設定確定目標設定營業收入=固定成本+目標利潤1-變動成本率-營業稅率例：A餐廳每月固定成本40萬，變動成本50%，營業稅率5.5%，目標利率每月8萬，問A餐廳的月營業收入：月營收入=（40+8）÷（1-50%-5.5%）=48÷0.445=108萬測算損益平衡點保本線=固定成本1-變動成本率-營業稅率例：A餐廳保本線=40÷（1-50%-5.5%）

=40÷0.445

=90萬定價的三重意義2、向競爭對手發出的信息和信號1、是利潤最大化和最重要的決定因素3、價格本事是價值的體現定價由此開始1、評估產品、服務的質量2、尋求顧客價值與平衡點3、以價值定義市場確定客單價盈利占比策略

占比策略內部策略銷售占比占比策略內部策略10%40%10%20%20%（三）、選菜試菜1、ABC產品分析2、產品的確定（食材、口味、烹調、餐飲）3、成本的確定ABC分析策略毛利率營業額CBACABBACCCAA營業額C毛利A優化、提升增加銷售雙A雙贏ABC顧客商品漲價保留虧本商品刪營業額A毛利C顧客超額、成本過高有意義的保留無意義的刪除雙C雙輸菜單內容選擇的標準因素成本設備廚師技術操作空間菜系風格吻合度品質可控度原料供應顧客喜好菜單協議度（銷售目標、顏色、口味、造型、營養等）產品類別確定的四個方面1、按食材確定比例2、按口味確定比例3、按烹飪確定比例4、按餐飲確定比例

（無酒精飲品、含酒精飲品比例）框架依據操作依據目標依據成本依據試口味成本操作第一次試菜的內容精確的成本核算—五個關鍵詞1、凈料率（一料一控、一料多檔）2、調味料成本（單件產品、批量產品）3、燃料成本4、統一計量單位5、標準食譜成本卡試口味餐具造型色彩第二次試菜的內容四料構成表1、符合思想審定2、符合目標審定3