NIESRMonthlyWageTracker

WageGrowthContinuestoSlowinJune

MonicaGeorgeMichail

13August2024

“Today’sONSfigurestellusthatwagegrowthisgraduallyslowingbutstillremainsstrong,withregularpaygrowingby5.4percentinthesecondquarterof2024.Adjustedforinflation,wagesroseby1.6percent,meaningworkerswillseeacontinuedimprovementintheirstandardofliving.

However,thepersistenceofstrongwagegrowthalsoraisesconcernsaboutstickierinflation,whichmayprompttheBankofEnglandtoremaincautiousaboutfurtherinterestratecuts.Weexpectwagepressurestocontinuefallinggraduallyinthecomingmonthsasthelabourmarketcools,withunemploymentrisingrelativetovacancies”.

MonicaGeorgeMichail

AssociateEconomist,NIESR

MonthlyWageTracker

August24-2-

NationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearchniesr.ac.uk

Figure1-Averageweeklyearnings(regularpay,excludingbonuses)

MainPoints

?Growthinaverageweeklyearningsslightlyeases,withgrowthinregularpayrecording5.4percentinQ22024,and4.5percentifweincludebonuses.Withinflationfalling,thesefiguresrepresenta1.6percentincreaseinrealpay,meaningworkerswillseeacontinuedimprovementintheirstandardofliving.

?Totalwagegrowthisexpectedtoreach4.8percentinQ32024forregularpay,and4.3percentifweincludebonuses.Weexpectpaygrowthtocontinuegraduallyslowingasthelabourmarketcoolsinthecomingmonths.

?Unemploymentrecorded4.2percentinQ22024,aslightdecreasefromthelastquarter,althoughLFSestimatesremainvolatileandthereforeshouldbetreatedwithcaution.

?Thenumberofvacanciescontinuestofall,indicatingthatthelabourmarketcontinuestocool,althoughtheyremainabovepre-pandemiclevels.

?Despitesignalsoflabourmarketcooling,thepersistenceofwagegrowthtogetherwithstickyunderlyinginflationmeanstheBankofEnglandmayremaincautiousregardingfurtherinterestratecuts.Nevertheless,theslowdowninservicesectorwagegrowththismonthisapositivesignforunderlyinginflation.

MonthlyWageTracker

August24-3-

Vacanciesandemployment

Today’sreleasesuggeststhattheemploymentrateremainedstableat74.5percent,whiletheunemploymentrateslightlyfellby0.2pponthequarter,reaching4.2percent.Theinactivityratealsoremainedstableat22.2percent.However,LFSdataremainsvolatilesoshouldbetreatedwithcaution.

Agoodmeasureoflabourmarkettightnessisthevacancy-to-unemploymentratio.Figure2showsthevacancy-to-unemploymentratiorecorded0.62inJune,whichcontinuestobehigherthanthepre-pandemicaverageof0.52(in2015-2019).

Thenumberofjobvacanciesfellby31thousandinQ22024,representinga3.4percentdecreasecomparedtoQ12024.Thesefiguresindicatethatthelabourmarketcontinuestograduallycoolwhichcouldexertdownwardpressureoninflation.

Inourlast

UKEconomicOutlook,

weforecasttheunemploymentratetoriseslowlyinthemediumterm.Ifthistrendofagraduallooseningofthelabourmarketcontinuesasresultoffallingvacanciesand/orincreasedunemployment,wecanexpectwagegrowthtoreturntohistoricallevelsinthefuture.

Figure2-Vacancy-to-unemploymentratio

MonthlyWageTracker

August24-4-

Pay

Theannualgrowthrateofaverageweeklyearningswas4.5percentinQ22024,and5.4percentexcludingbonuses.Thesefiguresindicatethatwagegrowthhasslowedbutremainshighbyhistoricalstandards(Figure1).Withinflationfalling,annualrealeconomy-widetotalpaygrowthrecorded1.6percentinQ42024,indicatingthathouseholdscontinuetoexperienceimprovementsinlivingstandards.Goingforward,asthelabourmarketcontinuestoloosen,weexpectregularpaygrowthtorecord4.8percentinQ32024,and4.3percentifweincludebonuses.Whilelabourmarketcoolingandinflationstayingattargetlevelopenroomforinterestratecuts,thepersistenceofwagegrowthtogetherwithstickyunderlyinginflationmeanstheBankofEnglandmayexercisesomecaution.

Figure3-Realaverageweeklyearnings

Private-sectorannualregularpaygrowthwas5.2percentinQ22024and5.0percentifweincludebonuses.Ourestimateforthethirdquarterof2024seesboththesefiguresat5.0and4.7percentrespectively.Wethereforeexpectprivatesectorworkerstocontinuemakingrealincomegainsinthecomingmonths,althoughataslowerpace,whichcanbeinterpretedasa‘wagecatch-up’periodfollowingoverayearofrealincomelosses.

Public-sectorannualtotalAWEgrowthwas6.0percentinQ22024,andjust1.9percentifweincludebonuses.Thiscomesamidstthelargebaseeffectfromtheone-offNHSandcivil-servicebonuspaymentsinJune2023.Weestimateannualpublicsectorregularpaygrowthtorecord5.0inQ32024,and3.6percentifweincludebonuses.

MonthlyWageTracker

August24-5-

Figure4-Totalaverageweeklyearningsintheservicessector

ServicessectortotalAWEannualgrowthhasdecreasedto4.3percentinQ22024,from5.7percentinMay.Thisisgoodnewsforunderlyinginflation,whichwouldeaseifservicesectorpaygrowthcontinuestofall,althoughitcurrentlystillremainswellaboveitspre-pandemicaverage.

AsFigure4aboveshows,thereseemstohavebeenashiftinservicessectortotalAWEgrowthpre-andpost-pandemic;theaveragegrowthrateinAWEinthissectorwas2.9percentfromJanuary2002toFebruary2020,whilefromMarch2020onwardsthisaveragehasincreasedto5.6percent(evenaccountingfortheinitialcovid-relatedplummet).Sincepayintheservicessectormakesupmostoftheinputcostsinthissector,itisthemaindriverofservicesinflation.

Caveat

NIESR’sWageTrackerincludespredictionsforregularpayandbonuspaymentsforthewholeeconomy,aswellasforecastsforprivateandpublic-sectorwages.TheWageTrackerexploitsinformationfromkeymacroeconomicindicators,includinglabourmarkettrends,buildingalsooninformationfrommonthlyGDPnowcastsproducedbyNIESR’sGDPTrackerandsurveyevidence,suchaslabourcostsinthemanufacturingandservicesectorsfromtheBankofEnglandAgentsScores.Thewagemodelsalsocapturetheinteractionbetweenprivateandpublicpay,showntoberelevantinworkdonebyNIESR.

Tocheckhowourmethodologywouldworkinrealtimewehaveproducedjudgement-freeforecastsofearningsgrowthfortheperiodbetweenJuly2010andOctober2018.Forwholeeconomyearnings,therootmeansquareerroris0.2percentagepointsforthemeasureexcludingbonusesand0.4percentagepointsforthemeasureincludingbonuses.Thesenumbersindicatethedegreeofuncertaintyaroundthepointforecastsproducedbythemodelsateachpointintime.Theerrorsaregreaterforthemeasureofearningsincludingbonusesbecausebonuspayments,particularlyintheprivatesector,aresubjecttoshort-termvolatility.Inpractice,weaddresidualsreflectingourjudgementsotheactualerrorbandsmaybelargerorsmaller.

MonthlyWageTracker

August24-6-

Notesforeditors:

ForfurtherinformationpleasecontacttheNIESRPressOffice:

press@niesr.ac.uk

orLucaPierion02039484488/

l.pieri@niesr.ac.uk

NationalInstituteofEconomicandSocialResearch

2DeanTrenchStreet

SmithSquare

London,SW1P3HEUnitedKingdom

SwitchboardTelephoneNumber:02072227665Website:

http://www.niesr.ac.uk

MonthlyWageTracker

August24-7-

Table1:Summarytableofearningsgrowth

AverageWeeklyEarnings

Wholeeconomy

Privatesector

Publicsector

Latestweights

100

82

18

RegularTotal

Regular

Total

Regular

Total

May-23

611656

607

660

625

629

Jun-23

614670

610

663

629

711

Jul-23

617665

612

667

633

656

Aug-23

620664

615

669

634

641

Sep-23

622673

617

674

642

645

Oct-23

619664

614

670

643

646

Nov-23

624666

619

671

647

649

Dec-23

626670

622

674

651

653

Jan-24

628672

621

677

657

658

Feb-24

633679

627

683

658

660

Mar-24

637684

631

687

663

664

Apr-24

640686

635

690

662

665

May-24

643688

637

692

665

669

Jun-24

645691

640

697

664

667

Jul-24

647693

642

699

667

669

Aug-24

650696

645

702

668

671

Sep-24

652699

648

704

671

673

%change3monthaverageyearonyear

7.88.87.37.77.16.75.95.75.76.15.95.65.0

6.26.66.87.47.06.65.96.06.16.46.36.46.0

11.012.212.58.77.26.76.06.06.06.26.36.41.9

Jun-23 Jul-23A