Land-BasedWindMarketReport:2023Edition

Land-BasedWindMarketReport:2023Edition

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Disclaimer

ThisreportisbeingdisseminatedbytheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE).Assuch,thisdocumentwaspreparedincompliancewithSection515oftheTreasuryandGeneralGovernmentAppropriationsActforfiscalyear2001(publiclaw106-554)andinformationqualityguidelinesissuedbyDOE.Thoughthisreportdoesnotconstitute“influential”information,asthattermisdefinedinDOE’sinformationqualityguidelinesortheOfficeofManagementandBudget’sInformationQualityBulletinforPeerReview,thestudywasreviewedbothinternallyandexternallypriortopublication.Forpurposesofreview,thestudybenefitedfromtheadviceandcommentsof19industrystakeholders,U.S.Governmentemployees,andnationallaboratorystaff.

NOTICE

ThisreportwaspreparedasanaccountofworksponsoredbyanagencyoftheUnitedStatesgovernment.NeithertheUnitedStatesgovernmentnoranyagencythereof,noranyoftheiremployees,makesanywarranty,expressorimplied,orassumesanylegalliabilityorresponsibilityfortheaccuracy,completeness,orusefulnessofanyinformation,apparatus,product,orprocessdisclosed,orrepresentsthatitsusewouldnotinfringeprivatelyownedrights.Referencehereintoanyspecificcommercialproduct,process,orservicebytradename,trademark,manufacturer,orotherwisedoesnotnecessarilyconstituteorimplyitsendorsement,recommendation,orfavoringbytheUnitedStatesgovernmentoranyagencythereof.TheviewsandopinionsofauthorsexpressedhereindonotnecessarilystateorreflectthoseoftheUnitedStatesgovernmentoranyagencythereof.

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Land-BasedWindMarketReport:2023Edition

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PreparationandAuthorship

ThisreportwaspreparedbyLawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratoryfortheWindEnergyTechnologiesOfficeoftheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy’sOfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergy.

CorrespondingauthorsofthereportareRyanWiserandMarkBolinger,LawrenceBerkeleyNational

Laboratory.Thefullauthorlistincludes:RyanWiser,MarkBolinger,BenHoen,DevMillstein,JoeRand,GalenBarbose,Na?mDarghouth,WillGorman,SeongeunJeong,EricO'Shaughnessy,andBenPaulos.

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Acknowledgments

Fortheirsupportofthisongoingreportseries,theauthorsthanktheentireU.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)WindEnergyTechnologiesOfficeteam.Inparticular,weacknowledgeGageReberandPatrickGilman.Forreviewingelementsofthisreportorprovidingkeyinput,wealsothank:RichardBowers(U.S.Energy

InformationAdministration);CharlieSmith(EnergySystemsIntegrationGroup);FengZhao(GlobalWind

EnergyCouncil);DixieDowning(U.S.InternationalTradeCommission);OwenRoberts(NationalRenewable

EnergyLaboratory,NREL);AndrewDavid(Silverado);DavidMilborrow(consultant);JohnHensley(AmericanCleanPowerAssociation);MattoxHall(Vestas);EdgarDeMeo(consultant);MattMcCabe(ArcLight);JustinSabrsula,ElizabethChu,andAllisonHolly(Pattern);LawrenceWilley(consultant);

GeoffreyKlise(SandiaNationalLaboratories);andPatrickGilman,GageReber,andLizHartman(DOE).Forprovidingdatathatunderlieaspectsofthereport,wethanktheU.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,

BloombergNEF,WoodMackenzie,GlobalWindEnergyCouncil,andtheAmericanCleanPowerAssociation.ThanksalsotoDonnaHeimiller(NREL)forassistanceinmappingwindresourcequality;andtoPardeepToorandAlexsandraLemke(NREL),andLizHartmanandWendellGrinton,Jr.(DOE)forassistancewithlayout,formatting,production,andcommunications.

LawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory’scontributionstothisreportwerefundedbytheWindEnergy

TechnologiesOffice,OfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergyoftheDOEunderContractNo.DE-AC02-05CH11231.Theauthorsaresolelyresponsibleforanyomissionsorerrorscontainedherein.

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ListofAcronyms

ACP

AmericanCleanPowerAssociation

BPA

BonnevillePowerAdministration

CAISO

CaliforniaIndependentSystemOperator

COD

commercialoperationdate

CCA

communitychoiceaggregator

CREZ

competitiverenewableenergyzones

DOE

U.S.DepartmentofEnergy

EIA

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration

ERCOT

ElectricReliabilityCouncilofTexas

FAA

FederalAviationAdministration

FERC

FederalEnergyRegulatoryCommission

GE

GeneralElectricCorporation

GW

gigawatt

HTS

HarmonizedTariffSchedule

IOUinvestor-ownedutility

IPPindependentpowerproducer

ISOindependentsystemoperator

ISO-NENewEnglandIndependentSystemOperator

ITCinvestmenttaxcredit

kVkilovolt

kWkilowatt

kWhkilowatt-hour

LCOElevelizedcostofenergy

m2squaremeter

MISOMidcontinentIndependentSystemOperator

MWmegawatt

MWhmegawatt-hour

NRELNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory

NYISONewYorkIndependentSystemOperator

O&Moperationsandmaintenance

OEMoriginalequipmentmanufacturer

PJMPJMInterconnection

POUPublicly-ownedutility

PPApowerpurchaseagreement

PTCproductiontaxcredit

vi

PV

photovoltaics

REC

renewableenergycertificate

RPS

renewablesportfoliostandard

RTO

regionaltransmissionorganization

SGRE

SiemensGamesaRenewableEnergy

SPP

SouthwestPowerPool

W

watt

WAPA

WesternAreaPowerAdministration

WECC

WesternElectricityCoordinatingCouncil

Land-BasedWindMarketReport:2023Edition

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ExecutiveSummary

WindpoweradditionsintheUnitedStatestotaled8.5gigawatts(GW)in2022.

1

Windpowergrowthhas

historicallybeensupportedbytheindustry’sprimaryfederalincentive—theproductiontaxcredit(PTC)—aswellasmyriadstate-levelpolicies.Long-termimprovementsinthecostandperformanceofwindpower

technologieshavealsobeenkeydriversforwindadditions.Nonetheless,2022wasarelativelyslowyearin

termsofnewwindpowerdeployment—thelowestsince2018—dueinparttoongoingsupplychainpressures,higherinterestrates,andinterconnectionandsitingchallenges,butalsothereductioninthevalueofthePTCthatwasinplaceupuntilthepassageoftheInflationReductionAct(IRA)inAugust2022.

PassageofIRApromisesnewmarketdynamicsforwindpowerdeploymentandsupplychaininvestmentsin

theyearsahead.IRAcontainsalong-termextensionofthePTCatfullvalue(assumingthatnewwageand

apprenticeshipstandardsaremet)alongwithopportunitiesforwindplantstoearntwo10percentbonuscreditsthataddtothePTCformeetingdomesticcontentrequirementsandforlocatingprojectsinenergy

communities.Amongmanyotherprovisions,IRAalsoincludesnewproduction-basedandinvestment-basedtaxcreditstosupportthebuild-outofdomesticcleanenergymanufacturing.ThoughitistooearlytoseethefullimpactsofIRAinhistoricaldata,IRAhasalreadyimpactedanalystforecastsforfuturewindpower

capacityadditionsandwindindustrysupply-chainannouncements.

Keyfindingsfromthisyear’sLand-BasedWindMarketReport—whichprimarilyfocusesonland-based,utility-scalewind—include:

InstallationTrends

.

TheU.S.added8.5GWofwindpowercapacityin2022,totaling$12billionofinvestment.

DevelopmentwasconcentratedintheElectricReliabilityCouncilofTexas(ERCOT)andtheSouthwestPowerPool(SPP).

2

Cumulativewindcapacitygrewtomorethan144gigawatts(GW)bytheendof

2022.Inaddition,1.7GWofexistingwindplantswerepartiallyrepoweredin2022(thefinal,repoweredcapacityoftheseplantsis1.8GW),mostlybyupgradingrotors(blades)andnacellecomponentslike

gearboxesandgenerators.

.

WindpowerrepresentedthesecondlargestsourceofU.S.electric-powercapacityadditionsin

2022,at22%,behindsolar’s49%.

Windpowerconstituted22%ofallgenerationandstoragecapacityadditionsin2022.Overthelastdecade,windrepresented27%oftotalcapacityadditions,andalarger

fractionofnewcapacityinSPP(85%),ERCOT(49%),theMidcontinentIndependentSystemOperator(MISO)(47%),andthenon-ISOWest(30%).

.

Globally,theUnitedStatesagainrankedsecondinannualwindcapacitybutremainedwellbehind

themarketleadersinwindenergypenetration.

Globalwindadditionstotaledover77GWin2022,

yieldingacumulative906GW.TheUnitedStatesremainedthesecond-leadingmarketintermsofannualandcumulativecapacity,behindChina.Manycountrieshaveachievedhighwindelectricityshares,withwindsupplying57%ofDenmark’stotalelectricitygenerationin2022andmorethan20%inatotalof

eightcountries.IntheUnitedStates,windsuppliedabout10%oftotalgeneration.

.

Texasonceagaininstalledthemostwindcapacityofanystatein2022(4,028MW),followedby

Oklahoma(1,607MW);twelvestatesexceeded20%windenergypenetration.

Texasalsoremainedtheleaderonacumulativecapacitybasis,withmorethan40GW.Notably,thewindcapacityinstalledinIowasupplied62%ofallin-stateelectricitygenerationin2022,followedbySouthDakota(55%),

1NotethatthisreportseekstoalignwithAmericanCleanPower(ACP)forannualwindcapacityadditionsandproject-levelspecifics,wherepossible.DifferencesinreportingexistbetweenACPandtheEnergyInformationAdministration.

2ThenineregionsmostusedinthisreportaretheSouthwestPowerPool(SPP),ElectricReliabilityCouncilofTexas(ERCOT),

MidcontinentIndependentSystemOperator(MISO),CaliforniaIndependentSystemOperator(CAISO),ISONewEngland(ISO-NE),PJMInterconnection(PJM),andNewYorkIndependentSystemOperator(NYISO),andthenon-ISOWestandSoutheast.

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Kansas(47%),Oklahoma(44%),NorthDakota(37%),NewMexico(35%),andNebraska(31%).Withinindependentsystemoperators(ISOs),windelectricityshares(expressedasapercentageofload)were

37.9%inSPP,24.8%inERCOT,14.5%inMISO,8.7%inCaliforniaIndependentSystemOperator

(CAISO),4.0%inPJMInterconnection(PJM),3.2%inISONewEngland(ISO-NE),and3.1%inNewYorkIndependentSystemOperator(NYISO).

.

Hybridwindplantsthatpairwindwithstorageandotherresourcessawlimitedgrowthin2022,

withjustonenewprojectcompleted.

Therewere41hybridwindpowerplantsinoperationattheend

of2022,representing2.6GWofwindand0.8GWofco-locatedgenerationorstorageassets.Themost

commonwindhybridprojectcombineswindandstoragetechnology,where1.4GWofwindhasbeen

pairedwith0.2GWofbatterystorage.Theaveragestoragedurationoftheseprojectsis0.6hours,

suggestingafocusonancillaryservicesandlimitedcapacitytoshiftlargeamountsofenergyacrosstime.

Whileonlyonenewwindhybrid—combiningwind,solarphotovoltaics(PV),andstorage—wascommissionedin2022,solarhybridscontinuetoexpandrapidlywith59newPV+storageprojectscomingonlinein2022.

.

Arecord-high300GWofwindpowercapacitynowexistsintransmissioninterconnectionqueues,

butsolarandstoragearegrowingatamuchmorerapidpace.

Attheendof2022,therewere300

GWofwindcapacityseekingtransmissioninterconnection,including113GWofoffshorewindand24GWofhybridprojects(inthelattercase,mostlywindpairedwithstorage).NYISO,thenon-ISOWest,andPJMhadthegreatestquantityofwindintheirqueuesattheendof2022.In2022,90GWofwindcapacityenteredinterconnectionqueues,41%ofwhichwasforoffshorewindplants.Storageandsolarinterconnectionrequestshaveincreasedrapidlyinrecentyears,oftentimespairingsolarwithstorage.

IndustryTrends

.

Justfourturbinemanufacturers,ledbyGE,suppliedalltheU.S.utility-scalewindpower

capacityinstalledin2022.

In2022,GEcaptured58%ofthemarketforturbineinstallations,followedbyVestaswith24%,Nordexwith10%,andSiemens-GamesaRenewableEnergy(SGRE)with8%.

3

.

Thedomesticwindindustrysupplychainbegan2022indecline,butpassageoftheInflation

ReductionActhascreatedrenewedoptimismaboutsupply-chainexpansion.

Thenumberofwind

turbinetowersandnacelles(whichsitontopofthetowerandhousethegearboxandgenerator)thatwecanmanufacturedomesticallyintheUnitedStateshasheldsteadyorincreasedoverthelastseveral

years.Attheendof2022,domesticcapacitywas15GWperyearfornacelleassemblyand11GWper

yearfortowermanufacturing.Blademanufacturingcontinueditsdeclinein2022,withunder4GWperyearofcapabilitybytheendoftheyear.Morebroadly,manyturbinemanufacturerscontinuedtoface

decliningandevennegativeprofitmarginsin2022.Nonetheless,wind-relatedjobtotalsincreasedby

4.5%in2022,to125,580full-timeworkers.Moreover,passageoftheInflationReductionActholds

promiseforaddressingrecentdomesticsupply-chainchallengesandfuelingexpansion:atleasteleven

new,re-opened,orexpandedmanufacturingfacilitieshavebeenannouncedinrecentmonthstoservetheland-basedwindmarket,totalingmorethan3,000newjobs.

.

Domesticmanufacturingcontentisstrongforsomewindturbinecomponents,buttheU.S.wind

industryremainsreliantonimports.

TheUnitedStatesimportswindequipmentfrommanycountries,includingmostprominentlyin2022:Mexico,India,andSpain.Nonetheless,forwindprojectsinstalled

in2022,over85%ofnacelleassemblyand70%–85%oftowermanufacturingoccurredintheUnited

States;inthecaseoftowers,benefittingfromimporttariffs.Forblades,domesticcontentwasjust5–25%

in2022,havingplummetedinrecentyears.HowthesetrendschangeafterpassageoftheInflationReductionActremainstobeseen,thoughsupply-chainannouncementsinrecentmonthssuggestaresurgenceindomesticmanufacturing.

3Numericalvaluespresentedhereandelsewheremaynotaddto100%,duetorounding.

Land-BasedWindMarketReport:2023Edition

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.

Independentpowerproducersownmostwindassetsbuiltin2022,extendinghistoricaltrends.

Independentpowerproducers(IPPs)own84%ofthenewwindcapacityinstalledintheUnitedStatesin2022,withtheremainingassets(16%)ownedbyinvestor-ownedutilities.

.

Forthefirsttime,non-utilitybuyersenteredintomorecontractstopurchasewindthandid

utilitiesin2022.

Directretailpurchasersofwind—includingcorporateofftakers—buyelectricityfromatleast44%ofthenewwindcapacityinstalledin2022.This~44%shareexceeds,forthefirsttime,thatof

electricutilities,whoeitherown(16%)orbuyelectricityfrom(17%)windprojectsthat,intotal,

represent33%ofthenewcapacityinstalledin2022.Merchant/quasi-merchantprojectsandpowermarketersmakeupatleastanother3%and6%,respectively,whiletheremainder(14%)ispresentlyundisclosed.

TechnologyTrends

.

Turbinecapacity,rotordiameter,andhubheighthaveallincreasedsignificantlyoverthelong

term.

Tooptimizeprojectcostandperformance,turbinescontinuetogrowinsize.Theaveragerated

(nameplate)capacityofnewlyinstalledwindturbinesintheUnitedStatesin2022was3.2MW,up7%fromthepreviousyearand350%since1998?1999.Theaveragerotordiameterofnewlyinstalled

turbineswas131.6meters,a3%increaseover2021and173%over1998?1999,whiletheaveragehubheightwas98.1meters,up4%from2021and73%since1998?1999.

.

Turbinesoriginallydesignedforlowerwindspeedsitesdominatethemarket,butthetrend

towardslowerspecificpowerhasreversedinrecentyears.

Withgrowthinsweptrotorareaoutpacinggrowthinnameplatecapacity,therehasbeenadeclineintheaverage“specificpower”

4

(inW/m2),from393W/m2amongprojectsinstalledin1998–1999to233W/m2amongprojectsinstalledin2022—thoughspecificpowerhasmodestlyincreasedoverthelastthreeyears.Turbineswithlowspecificpowerwere

originallydesignedforlowerwindspeedsitesbutarenowbeingusedatmanysitesasthemostattractivetechnology.

.

Windturbinesweredeployedinhigherwind-speedsitesin2022thaninrecentyears.

Windturbinesinstalledin2022werelocatedinsiteswithanaverageestimatedlong-termwindspeedof8.3meterspersecondataheightof100metersabovetheground—thehighestsite-averagewindspeedsince2014.

FederalAviationAdministration(FAA)andindustrydataonprojectsthatareeitherunderconstructionorindevelopmentsuggestthatthesiteslikelytobebuiltoutoverthenextfewyearswill,onaverage,haveloweraveragewindspeeds.Increasinghubheightswillhelptopartiallyoffsetthistrend,however,

enablingturbinestoaccesshigherwindspeedsthanotherwisepossiblewithshortertowers.

.

Low-specific-powerturbinesaredeployedonawidespreadbasis;tallertowersareseeingincreased

useinawidervarietyofsites.

Lowspecificpowerturbinescontinuetobedeployedinallregions,and

atbothlowerandhigherwindspeedsites.Thetallesttowers(i.e.,thoseabove100meters)arefoundingreaterrelativefrequencyintheupperMidwestandNortheasternregions.

.

Windprojectsplannedforthenearfuturearepoisedtocontinuethetrendofever-tallerturbines.

Theaverage“tipheight”(fromgroundtobladetipextendeddirectlyoverhead)amongprojectsthatcameonlinein2022is164meters.FAAdatasuggestthatfutureprojectswilldeployeventallerturbines.

Among“proposed”turbinesintheFAApermittingprocess,theaveragetipheightreaches195meters.

.

In2022,thirteenwindprojectswerepartiallyrepowered,mostofwhichnowfeaturesignificantly

largerrotorsandlowerspecificpowerratings.

Partiallyrepoweredprojectsin2022totaled1.7GW

priortorepowering(1.8GWafter),aslightincreasefromthe1.6GWofprojectspartiallyrepoweredin2021.Ofthechangesmadetotheturbines,largerrotorsdominated,reducingspecificpowerfrom300to

4Awindturbine’sspecificpoweristheratioofitsnameplatecapacityratingtoitsrotor-sweptarea.Allelseequal,adeclineinspecificpowershouldleadtoanincreaseincapacityfactor.

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220W/m2.Theprimarymotivationsforpartialrepoweringhavebeentore-qualifyforthePTC,whileatthesametimeincreasingenergyproductionandextendingtheusefullifeoftheprojects.

PerformanceTrends

.

Theaveragecapacityfactorin2022was36%onafleet-widebasisand37%amongwindplants

builtin2021.

Theaverage2022capacityfactoramongprojectsbuiltfrom2013to2021was40%,

comparedtoanaverageof31%amongallprojectsbuiltfrom2004to2012,and23%amongallprojectsbuiltfrom1998to2003.Thishaspushedthecumulativefleet-widecapacityfactorhigherovertime,to36%in2022.Theaverage2022capacityfactorforprojectsbuiltin2021was37%,somewhatlowerthanforprojectsbuiltfrom2014to2020.

.

Stateandregionalvariationsincapacityfactorsreflectthestrengthofthewindresource;capacity

factorsarehighestinthecentralpartofthecountry.

Basedonprojectsbuiltfrom2017to2021,

averagecapacityfactorsin2022werehighestincentralstatesandlowerclosertothecoasts.Notsurprisingly,therelativestateandregionalcapacityfactorsareroughlyconsistentwiththerelativequalityofthewindresourceineachregion.

.

Turbinedesignandsitecharacteristicsinfluenceperformance,withdecliningspecificpower

leadingtosizableincreasesincapacityfactoroverthelongterm.

Thedeclineinspecificpoweroverthelasttwodecadeshasbeenamajorcontributortohighercapacityfactors,buthasbeenoffsetinpartbyatendencytowardbuildingprojectsatsiteswithlowerannualaveragewindspeeds.Asaresult,averagecapacityfactorshavebeenrelativelystableamongprojectsbuiltoverthelastnineyears,withsome

evidenceofmodestdeclinesamongpost-2018vintageprojectsasspecificpowerhasdriftedupwardsinthemostrecentseveralyearsandsitequalityhasdecreasedsomewhat.

.

Windpowercurtailmentin2022acrosssevenregionsaveraged5.3%,upfromalowof2.1%in

2016.

AcrossallISOs,windenergycurtailmentin2022stoodat5.3%—generallyrisingoverthelastsixyears.Thisaveragemasksvariationacrossregionsandprojects:SPP(9.2%),ERCOT(4.7%),MISO

(4.4%),andNYISO(3.2%)experiencedthehighestratesofwindcurtailmentin2022,whiletheotherthreeISOswereeachatlessthan2%.

.

2022wasanabove-averagewindresourceyearacrossmostofthecountry.

Thestrengthofthewindresourcevariesfromyeartoyear;moreover,thedegreeofinter-annualvariationdiffersfromsitetosite(and,hence,alsoregiontoregion).Thistemporalandspatialvariationimpactsprojectperformancefromyeartoyear.In2022,thenationalwindindexstoodat1.06,itshighestlevelsince2014,asmostregionsexperiencedanabove-averagewindyear(thenon-ISOWestexcepted).

.

Windprojectperformancedegradationalsoexplainswhyolderprojectsdidnotperformaswellin

2022.

Capacityfactordatasuggestperformancedeclinewithprojectage,thoughperhapsmostlyonce

projectsagebeyond10years.Theapparentdeclineincapacityfactorsasprojectsprogressintotheirseconddecadepartiallyexplainswhyolderprojects—e.g.,thosebuiltfrom1998to2003—didnotperformaswellasnewerprojectsin2022.

CostTrends

.

Windturbinepricescontinuedtoincreasein2022,reachingroughly$1,000/kW.

Windturbinepricesdeclinedby50%between2008and2020.However,recentsupplychainpressuresandelevated

commoditypriceshaveledtoincreasedturbineprices.Dataindicaterecentaveragepricingintherangeof$900/kWto$1,200/kW

5

,alevelroughlysimilartothatlastseenin2017and2018andupfroma

rangeof$800-$1,000/kWfor2019–2021.

.

Surprisingly,averageinstalledprojectcostsamongoursmallsampleof2022projectsdidnot

followturbinepriceshigher.

Afterfouryearsofrelativelystablecostsof~$1600/kWfrom2018

5Allcostfigurespresentedinthereportaredenominatedinreal2022dollars.

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through2021,thesurprisingdropinthecapacity-weightedaverageinstalledcostin2022—to

$1,370/kW—ispartlyattributabletotheoutsizedinfluenceofasinglelargeprojectinourrelatively

small2022plantsampleandtotheconcentrationofwinddeploymentin2022inthelow-costregionsofSPPandERCOT.The2022capacity-weightedaveragemaychangeasmoredatabecomeavailableovertime.

.

Recentinstalledcostsdifferbyregion.

Thelowest-costprojectsinrecentyearshavebeeninERCOT(averaging$1360/kW)andSPP($1470/kW),whileMISOprojectshaveaveraged$1730/kW.Again,

samplesizein2022(and,toalesserextent,in2021)isabnormallylow,andtheseaveragesmaychangeasmoredatabecomeavailable.

.

Installedcosts(permegawatt)generallydeclinewithprojectsize;arelowestforprojectsover200

MW.

Installedcostsexhibiteconomiesofscale,withcostsdecliningasprojectcapacityincreases.

.

Operationsandmaintenancecostsvariedbyprojectageandcommercialoperationsdate.

Despitelimiteddata,projectsinstalledoverthepast16yearshave,onaverage,incurredloweroperationsand

maintenance(O&M)coststhanolderprojects.ThedataalsosuggestthatO&Mcoststendtoincreaseasprojectsage,atleastfortheolderprojectsinthesample.

PowerSalesPriceandLevelizedCostTrends

.

Windpowerpurchaseagreementpriceshavebeendriftinghighersinceabout2018,witharecent

rangefrombelow$20/MWhtomorethan$40/MWh.

Thecombinationofdecliningcapitaland

operatingcostsandimprovedperformancedrovewindPPApricestoall-timelowsthrough2018,thoughpriceshavesincestabilizedandthenincreased—inpartduetosupply-chainandotherinflationary

pressures.Thoughoursamplesizeinthelastyearortwoisrelativelysmall,recentpricingappearstobearound$20/MWhintheCentralregionofthecountry,abithigherintheWest(rangingfrom$20/MWhto$40/MWh),andhigherstillintheEast(~$50/MWh).

.

LevelTenEnergy’sPPApriceindicesconfirmrisingPPApricesandregionalvariation.

IncontrasttothePPAssummarizedabove,whichprincipallyinvolveutilitypurchasers,LevelTenEnergyprovidesanindexofPPAoffersmadetolarge,end-usecustomers.Thesedataalsoshowthatpriceshaverisen

overthelastcoupleofyearsandvarybyISO.Amongregionsreportingdata,CAISOfeaturesthehighestpricing(~$60/MWhinthethirdquarterof2022onceconvertedtolevelized2022dollarterms);the

lowestpricesarefoundinSPPandERCOT(~$33/MWhin2022dollars).Inrealdollarterms,

LevelTen’sreportedpricetrendssince2018aresimilartothereal-dollardenominatedPPAtrendsdescribedinthepriorsection.

.

Amongarelativelysmallsampleofprojectsbuiltin2022,the(unsubsidized)averagelevelizedcost

ofwindenergyhasfallentoaround$32/MWh.

Trendsinthelevelizedcostofenergy(LCOE)followPPAtrends,atleastoverthelongterm.Wind’sLCOEdecreasedfrom1998to2005,rosethrough2009-2011,declinedthrough2018,buthasremainedsteadyoverthelastseveralyears.Thenationalaverage

LCOEamongasmallsampleofprojectsbuiltin2022—excludingthePTC—was$32/MWh.This

averageisimpactedbytheconcentrationofprojectsinstalledin2022inthewindy,low-costregionsofERCOTandSPP.Asmoredatabecomeavailable,theaverageLCOEamong2022(and2021)wind

plantscouldberevis