1、當(dāng)前文檔修修改密碼：83622839 HYPERLINK xxxx/ 001GOOLDRAATT SSATELLLITEE PROOGRAMM高瑞特衛(wèi)星星節(jié)目SESSIION 44第四講DISTRRIBUTTION AND SUPPPLY CCHAINN配銷與供應(yīng)應(yīng)鏈Good to ssee yyou aagainn andd forr thoose wwho aare hhidinng beehindd thiis caameraa goood too imaaginee youu agaain.很高興又見見面了。至至于攝影機(jī)機(jī)背后的觀觀眾，很高高興又能想想象你們?cè)谠谑湛础istrribu

2、ttion. 配銷。The ffirstt thiing tto reealizze iss thaat allmostt alll funnctioons iin thhe orrganiizatiion aare iimpaccted by ddistrributtion. 首先要了解解，組織內(nèi)內(nèi)全部的功功能幾乎都都受到配銷銷所影響。So leets nnot tthinkk aboout ook, wwe arre inn prooducttion or wwe arre inn heaalthccare, we shouuldnt caare aaboutt disstribbutio

3、on. 不要認(rèn)為我我們是生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)業(yè)或醫(yī)療療業(yè)，就不不必關(guān)心配配銷。Distrributtion impaacts almoost eeveryybodyy. 配銷幾乎影影響每個(gè)人人。We arre gooing to ssee tto whhat eextennt prroducctionn is impaactedd by disttribuutionn, muuch mmore thann peoople imaggine. 我們會(huì)看到到，配銷對(duì)對(duì)生產(chǎn)帶來來的影響，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超乎人們們所能想象象。Even if yyou aare mmaybee thee firrst llink in tthe

4、 ssupplly chhain, whiich mmeanss youu suppply to ssomebbody elsee, whho suupplyy to someebodyy elsse, tthen suppply tto thhe maarkett thrroughh thee disstribbutioon. 即使你是供供應(yīng)鏈的第第一環(huán)，也也就是說，你你供應(yīng)給某某個(gè)人，他他再供應(yīng)給給某個(gè)人，然然后透過配配銷供應(yīng)到到市場(chǎng)上。You aare iimpaccted drammaticcallyy by disttribuutionn. 你也會(huì)深受受配銷影響響。And nnot

5、lless impoortannt yoou caan immpactt disstribbutioon, nnot jjust can- musst. 很重要的一一點(diǎn)是，你你也可以影影響配銷，不不只是可可以，而而是必須須。If yoou arre foor exxamplle inn heaalth caree, hoow caan yoou bee imppacteed byy disstribbutioon? 如果你是在在醫(yī)療業(yè)，怎怎么受配銷銷所影響呢呢？How mmuch of tthe hhealtth caare iindusstry, howw mucch off thee co

6、sst iss druugs, mediicinees? 在醫(yī)療業(yè)中中，藥品占占總成本的的多少？Have you notiiced thatt thiis iss sommethiing llike 30% of tthe ttotall amoount of mmoneyy? 你是否注意意到大約是是總金額的的30%？And iif thhe diistriibutiion iis noot haandleed coorrecctly it ccan bbringg youu to yourr kneees. 如果你無法法正確處理理配銷，可可能就會(huì)一一敗涂地。And bbesiddes eev

7、eryyone of uus frrom ttime to ttime goess to a shhop, we aare iimpaccted by ddistrributtion. 此外，我們們每個(gè)人偶偶爾會(huì)去商商店買東西西，所以也也會(huì)受到配配銷影響。So evven ffor aa gennerall unddersttandiing oof hoow coome tthat we aare ccominng annd wee wannt thhis wwhitee shiirt aand wwe caannott finnd itt.即使我們想想買白襯衫衫，而卻找找不到也是是配銷的事事

8、。You kknow therre iss onee thiing tthat I miiss ddue tto thhis pprogrram- it iis whhite shirrts. 你知道嗎？這個(gè)節(jié)目目我唯一沒沒穿過的是是：白襯衫衫。Distrributtion. 配銷。This is bby thhe waay onne off thee mosst diifficcult subjjectss to undeerstaand. Becaause therre arre soo manny poointss of vieww on it. 順帶一提，配配銷是最難難了解的主主題之一

9、，因因?yàn)槲覀兛煽梢詮暮芏喽嘤^點(diǎn)來看看配銷。It iss thee poiint oof viiew oof thhe suuppliier tto thhe diistriibutiion.可以從供貨貨商的觀點(diǎn)點(diǎn)來看配銷銷。It iss thee poiint oof viiew oof thhe onne innsidee thee disstribbutioon, ffor eexampple, in cchargge off a rregioonal waree-houuse. 可以從配銷銷通路內(nèi)人人員的觀點(diǎn)點(diǎn)來看，例例如負(fù)責(zé)區(qū)區(qū)域倉(cāng)庫(kù)的的人。It iss thee poiint oof

10、 viiew oof thhe cllientt andd eveeryboody tthinkks thhat aall tthe ootherrs doont knoww whaat thhey aare ddoingg. 也可以從客客戶的觀點(diǎn)點(diǎn)來看，而而每個(gè)人認(rèn)認(rèn)為其它人人都不知道道自己在做做什么。And iif hee or she woulld haave bbeen in cchargge off thee whoole tthingg, thhey ccan ddo muuch, muchh bettter. 如果是由他他來負(fù)責(zé)整整件事，就就可以做得得更多、更更好。It iss

11、amaazingg to whatt exttent peopple tthinkk so abouut evveryoone wwho iis inn disstribbutioon.令人驚訝的的是，大家家對(duì)配銷通通路中的其其它成員竟竟抱持這種種看法。It iss amaazingg, itt is not justt topp mannagemment thatt thiinks likee thaat. 實(shí)在令人驚驚訝，不只只是高階主主管會(huì)這么么想。That if tthey woulld haave bbeen in cchargge off thee whoole tthingg i

12、t woulld haave bbeen muchh bettter. 他們都認(rèn)為為如果由自自己來全權(quán)權(quán)負(fù)責(zé)整件件事，情況況就會(huì)好很很多。Even the loweest ppersoon inn thee pyrramidd is totaally convvinceed thhat iif hee wouuld hhave manaaged it, it wwouldd havve beeen mmuch bettter. 即使在金字字塔最底部部的人，都都深信如果果由他來管管理，情況況就會(huì)好很很多。Why iis itt? 為什么會(huì)這這樣呢？Maybee thee besst waay t

13、oo loook onn it and see to wwhat exteent tthe oopporrtuniity hhere for the imprrovemment or tthe pprobllem iis biig, iis byy askking someebodyy in the disttribuutionn chaain- how muchh invventoory ddo yoou haave? 也許最能看看到改善機(jī)機(jī)會(huì)或問題題嚴(yán)重性的的方法，就就是問一下下配銷通路路中的某個(gè)個(gè)人：“你你持有多少少存貨？”Usuallly tthe aansweer iss, leet

14、s ssay sso maany mmilliions of ddollaars. 答案通常是是：幾百萬萬美元。Many timees hee doeesntt givve thhe annswerr in dolllars whicch iss acttuallly loookinng inn thee passt annd saayingg howw mucch diid I inveest iin haavingg thee invventoory. 很多時(shí)候，他他給的不是是金額，不不是回首過過去，說他他投資了多多少錢買這這些存貨。But hhe iss loookingg to the

15、 futuure aand hhe iss telllingg youu- wee havve 6 weekks innventtory. 而是展望未未來，他會(huì)會(huì)說：“我我們有六周周的存貨。”Why ddo I calll it lookking to tthe ffuturre? 為什么我稱稱這種說法法為展望未未來呢？Becauuse aactuaally he ssays- invventoory tthat I hoold iis suufficcientt to coveer 6 weekks off connsumpptionn. 因?yàn)閷?shí)際上上他說的是是：“我持持有的存貨貨足以提供供

16、六周的消消費(fèi)量。”But wwhen you reallly llook intoo dettailss of thiss 6 wweekss invventoory, you willl finnd ouut thhat ssome itemms arre 0 in sstockk, thhey hhave run out totaally, somme otther itemms thhey hhave enouugh ffor ttheirr graandchhildrren. 但是如果你你看一下這這六周存貨貨的明細(xì)，會(huì)會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)有些些商品的存存貨是零，有有些商品卻卻多到足以以留給他們們的孫

17、子使使用。And tthis is ccalleed onn aveeragee 6 wweekss. 這叫做平均均六周的存存貨。Of cooursee, evverybbody is aawaree of it aand tthat is wwhy eeveryybodyy is convvinceed wee cann do muchh, muuch bbetteer. 當(dāng)然，每個(gè)個(gè)人都知道道這個(gè)現(xiàn)象象，所以他他們深信自自己可以做做得更好。Lets use the techhniquues tthat we hhave alreeady learrned in oorderr to und

18、eerstaand tthe mmaze thatt is happpeninng inn disstribbutioon annd whhy thhe peerforrmancce iss succh thhat nnoboddy iss happpy wwith. 讓我們利用用之前學(xué)到到的技巧，來來了解配銷銷的難題，以以及為什么么大家都對(duì)對(duì)結(jié)果不滿滿意的原因因。For tthat letss usee thee 5 ffocussing stepps thhat wwe haave llearnned iin seessioon 2. 我們利用第第二講學(xué)到到的五個(gè)專專注的步驟驟。Remem

19、mber, whaat waas thhe fiirst stepp, allwayss? 還記得，步步驟一永遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)是什么？Identtify the systtemss connstraaint.指出系統(tǒng)的的限制。Identtify the thinng, tthat if yyou hhad mmore fromm it you woulld haave mmore throoughpput, you woulld haave ssold moree. 如果你有更更多存貨，就就有更多有有效產(chǎn)出，可可以賣出更更多商品。Now iif yoou arre inn disstribbutioon

20、annd yoou haave iinvenntoryy, pllentyy of inveentorry, nnot aalwayys thhe riight inveentorry buut yoou doo havve pllentyy of inveentorry, wwhat is tthe tthingg thaat iff youu hadd morre, ddefinnitelly yoou woould get moree thrroughhput, morre saales. 假設(shè)你是配配銷商，持持有大量的的存貨，盡盡管不見得得都是正確確的存貨，誰誰能讓你的的有效產(chǎn)出出更多

21、呢？Everyybodyy knoows iit- ccliennts. 每個(gè)人都知知道：客戶戶。If moore ccliennts wwouldd havve coome aand wwanteed too buyy, deefiniitelyy I wwouldd havve foound someethinng too selll. 如果更多客客戶上門想想要購(gòu)買，我我絕對(duì)可以以找到商品品販賣。Then the consstraiint oof thhe syystemm is clieents who comee to buy.于是系統(tǒng)的的限制就是是來購(gòu)買的的客戶。What is tt

22、he sseconnd sttep? 步驟二是什什么？Explooit tthe ssysteems consstraiint. 充分應(yīng)用系系統(tǒng)的限制制。Dontt wasste iit, iif thhe cllientt alrreadyy entteredd andd wannted to bbuy, selll himm. 不要浪費(fèi)，如如果客戶已已經(jīng)進(jìn)門而而且想購(gòu)買買，就賣東東西給他。But hhow?但是要怎么么做呢？What is tthe mmeaniing oof exxploiit thhe syystemms cconsttrainnt? 充分應(yīng)用系系統(tǒng)的限制制是什么意意思

23、？In ouur caase iit meeans you mustt holld att thee rigght pplacee in the righht tiime tthe rrightt invventoory. 在我們的例例子中，你你必須在正正確的地點(diǎn)點(diǎn)、正確的的時(shí)間、持持有正確的的存貨。Becauuse iif yoou wiill nnot hhold at tthe rrightt plaace aat thhe tiime wwhen the clieent ccomess thee rigght iinvenntoryy theen thhe cllientt willl

24、 saay soorry and willl go out alsoo a llittlle biit diisapppointted wwhichh meaans tthat maybbe seecondd timme maaybe he wwill not comee to you. 如果你不能能在客戶進(jìn)進(jìn)門時(shí)，持持有正確的的存貨，他他會(huì)說很抱抱歉，然后后有點(diǎn)失望望的離開，也也就是說，他他下一次可可能不會(huì)再再來找你。Explooit tthe ssysteems consstraiint mmeanss havve thhe riight inveentorry inn thee rigg

25、ht pplacee at the righht tiime. 充分應(yīng)用系系統(tǒng)的限制制，意謂著著在正確的的地點(diǎn)、正正確的時(shí)間間、持有正正確的存貨貨。Everyybodyy knoows iit. 大家都知道道這一點(diǎn)。Not llike in ootherr plaaces thatt mayybe wwe diidntt knoow thhe coonstrraintt. 不像在其它它時(shí)候，我我們可能不不知道限制制為何。In diistriibutiion eeveryy onee knoows tthe cconsttrainnt annd evverybbody knowws hoow i

26、mmporttant is tto exxploiit thhe coonstrraintt andd eveeryboody kknowss whaat iss neeeded to bbe doone iin orrder to eexplooit tthe cconsttrainnt. 配銷通路中中的每個(gè)成成員都知道道限制，以以及充分應(yīng)應(yīng)用限制的的重要性，都都了解應(yīng)該該做什么才才能充分應(yīng)應(yīng)用限制。The pprobllem iis inn thee thiird sstep in ssuborrdinaationn. 問題在于第第三個(gè)步驟驟：配合。In otther wordds, hh

27、ow ddo wee makke ouur enntiree sysstem suboordinnate so tthat we ccan eexplooit tthe cconsttrainnt? 換句話說，我我們?nèi)绾巫屪屨麄€(gè)系統(tǒng)統(tǒng)全力配合合，以充分分應(yīng)用限制制？What mustt we do iin orrder to hhave the righht innventtory in tthe rrightt plaace aat thhe riight timee? 我們必須做做什么，才才能在正確確的地點(diǎn)、正確的時(shí)時(shí)間、持有有正確的存存貨。And tthis is nnot ssimpl

28、le att alll. 這一點(diǎn)也不不簡(jiǎn)單。Now, letss loook onn it and letss unddersttand muchh morre off thee loggic. 現(xiàn)在，讓我我們看一下下，再進(jìn)一一步了解這這套邏輯。Now oof cooursee, inn ordder tto doo thaat I wrotte soome ttreess butt whaat I founnd ouut iss sinnce mmost peopple aare nnot iintimmatelly inn thee disstribbutioon itt is quitt

29、e haard tto unndersstandd thee cauuse aand eeffecct inn thiis trree. 當(dāng)然，為了了讓大家了了解這套邏邏輯，我畫畫了一些邏邏輯樹，但但是我發(fā)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)多數(shù)人都都不是配銷銷通路里的的成員，所所以不容易易理解樹里里面的因果果關(guān)系。So innsteaad I deciided thatt I wwill use animmatioon. 因此，我決決定用卡通通的方式。You ddontt minnd thhat tthis reprresennts tthe mmanagger iin diistriibutiion.你不介意這這代表配銷

30、銷里的經(jīng)理理吧！He iss a nnice felllow, he iis evven ssmiliing. 他是個(gè)好人人，甚至在在微笑呢！Move yourr eyees! No! Finne. 眨一下你的的眼睛！不不要！好。Ah. Nicee. 噢！很好。Now llets see wherre thhe diistriibutiion iis sttartiing ffrom, wheere iis thhe whhole conccept. 現(xiàn)在我們看看一下配銷銷是從哪里里開始，整整個(gè)概念在在哪里？Look on wwhat is hhappeeningg.看看發(fā)生了了什么事？Wha

31、t we ssee iis a mismmatchh in satiisfyiing tthe mmarkeet deemandds. 我們看到有有個(gè)地方不不能滿足市市場(chǎng)需求。Suppoose tthat it ttakess 1 mmonthh to brinng thhe meerchaandisse frrom tthe vvendoor too thiis loocatiion. 假設(shè)要花一一個(gè)月，才才能把商品品從供貨商商那邊送到到這個(gè)地點(diǎn)點(diǎn)。From submmittiing oof orrder untiil thhey wwill prodduce maybbe, aand dd

32、efinnitelly unntil theyy willl brring it aand ssomehhow wwe haave tthe iimpreessioon thhat wwheneever we nneed someethinng urrgenttly tthey are usinng thhe moode oof tuurtlees too briing iit too us. 從下訂單一一直到生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)、運(yùn)送，我我們心中總總有個(gè)印象象，只要是是我們急需需的東西，他他們就會(huì)用用烏龜?shù)乃偎俣人蛠怼he ccheckk is in tthe mmail. At the samee t

33、imme thhe cllientts waant iit noow. 支票已經(jīng)寄寄了，客戶戶現(xiàn)在就要要拿到貨。Theree is a miismattch hhere, we are not satiisfyiing tthe ccliennt neeeds. 在這里我們們無法滿足足客戶的需需要。And tthen whatt happpenss is- sommeboddy reealizzed hhere we ddontt sattisfyy thee marrket reall neeeds. 接下來是：有人發(fā)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)我們無法法滿足市場(chǎng)場(chǎng)真正的需需求。Theree is a buusin

34、eess oopporrtuniity. 這里出現(xiàn)了了商機(jī)。And hhe haad a marvvelouus iddea. A liight bulbb camme upp. 他靈光一閃閃，想到一一個(gè)相當(dāng)好好的主意。And wwhat is tthe iidea? 是什么主意意呢？Let mme puut thhe orrderss to the venddor, let me pput tthe iinvenntoryy herre inn plaace sso iff cliientss, thhe maarkett wannts iit noow I can deliiver it

35、iimmeddiateely nnow. 讓我下訂單單給供貨商商，把存貨貨放在這里里，如果客客戶和市場(chǎng)場(chǎng)現(xiàn)在需要要，我馬上上就能出貨貨。Now iif itt takkes aa whoole mmonthh to brinng frrom ssubmiittinng ann ordder uuntill it arriives how muchh invventoory sshoulld I holdd? 1 montth. 假設(shè)從下訂訂單到商品品到達(dá)要花花一整個(gè)月月，那我必必須持有多多少存貨呢呢？一個(gè)月月。So I havee a bbusinness, I aam acctingg up

36、oon itt andd whaat iss noww thee sittuatiion? 所以生意上上門，我馬馬上采取響響應(yīng)，現(xiàn)在在的情況是是什么呢？The ssituaationn is thatt I hhave creaated a diistriibutiion bbusinness. 于是我創(chuàng)造造了配銷事事業(yè)。I havve 1 montth off invventoory, I amm plaacingg ordders baseed onn whaat? 我有一個(gè)月月的存貨，我我根據(jù)什么么下訂單呢呢？Foreccast, butt wheen thhe cllientt com

37、mes II cann delliverr immmediaatelyy.銷售預(yù)估，不不過當(dāng)客人人上門，我我就能立刻刻出貨。Lookss nicce, bbut hhow mmuch inveentorry doo I hhave to hhold if iit taakes one montth too briing iit. 看起來很好好，但是如如果商品要要一個(gè)月后后才到，那那我必須持持有多少存存貨呢？I havve too holld onne moonth. 我必須持有有一個(gè)月的的存貨。Wait, whaat iss thee meaaningg of one montth. 等一下，

38、一一個(gè)月是什什么意思？One mmonthh meaans oone mmonthh of averrage conssumpttion.一個(gè)月表示示一個(gè)月的的平均消費(fèi)費(fèi)量。Well, youu alll knoow whhat iis thhe meeaninng off aveeragee connsumpptionn. RRightt? 嗯，你們都都知道平均均消費(fèi)量的的意思，對(duì)對(duì)不對(duì)？Somettimess it is bbeloww, soometiimes it iis moore. 有時(shí)候少一一點(diǎn)，有時(shí)時(shí)候多一點(diǎn)點(diǎn)。What happpens whenn it is mmore?

39、Whhat hhappeens wwhen it iis moore?多一點(diǎn)的時(shí)時(shí)候會(huì)怎么么樣呢？What happpens whenn 2 ccliennts aarrivve moore tthan the averrage? 如果來的客客人比平均均多，會(huì)怎怎么樣呢？You ddrainn thee invventoory aand wwhat is hhappeeningg noww- wee wannt itt noww, doo youu havve ennoughh to givee? 你的存貨用用光了，現(xiàn)現(xiàn)在會(huì)怎么么樣呢？我我們現(xiàn)在就就要，你有有沒有足夠夠的商品給給客人？Nope

40、, butt thee whoole bbusinness was on ccustoomer satiisfacctionn thaat yoou caan giive nnow. 沒有，但是是整個(gè)配銷銷事業(yè)的基基礎(chǔ)，就是是必須讓顧顧客現(xiàn)在就就滿意。Oh, ooh, wwe arre inn trooublee butt loook whhat iis haappenning befoore tthat. 噢！我們有有麻煩了，但但是看看在在這之前發(fā)發(fā)生什么事事。If itt is one montth onn thee wayy alrreadyy it meanns I put one m

41、ontth inn plaace tthis alreeady meanns I am hholdiing 22 monnths inveentorry. 如果一個(gè)月月的存貨在在路上，表表示我這里里已經(jīng)放了了一個(gè)月的的存貨，也也就是說，我我持有兩個(gè)個(gè)月的存貨貨。Rememmber whatt happpeneed- oone mmonthh leaad tiime oof deeliveery mmeanss noww thaat I am hholdiing oone mmonthh on the roadd, pllus oone mmonthh in inveentorry, sso i

42、tt douubledd. 還記得發(fā)生生了什么事事嗎？一個(gè)個(gè)月的送貨貨前置時(shí)間間，表示一一個(gè)月的存存貨在路上上，再加上上這里一個(gè)個(gè)月的存貨貨，所以存存貨數(shù)量加加倍了。But nnow iit waasntt enoough so wwhat do II do now if II wannt too givve peerfecct cuustommer sserviice? 但是還不夠夠，所以如如果我想提提供顧客完完美的服務(wù)務(wù)，現(xiàn)在應(yīng)應(yīng)該要怎么么做？2 monnth, 3 moonthss noww deppendss on how muchh is the flucctuattionss in

43、 demaand. 持有兩個(gè)月月、三個(gè)月月的存貨？端視需求求的波動(dòng)幅幅度而定。Lets supppose thatt in our casee thee fluuctuaationns arre quuite smalll. 假設(shè)在這個(gè)個(gè)例子中，波波動(dòng)幅度相相當(dāng)小。In otther wordds inn onee monnth wwe caan seell mmany timees twwice the averrage montth. Ok? 換句話說，我我們?cè)谀硞€(gè)個(gè)月的銷售售量是平均均的兩倍，好好嗎？I am stilll smmilinng, bbecauuse mmaybee I m

44、made so mmuch moneey byy proovidiing tthis servvice thatt I ccan iinvesst inn morre innventtory. 我仍然在微微笑，因?yàn)闉樘峁┻@項(xiàng)項(xiàng)服務(wù)讓我我賺大錢，所所以可以投投資在更多多存貨上面面。Fine, I wwill act uponn my huncch. 很好，我會(huì)會(huì)依照直覺覺行事。Whichh meaans nnow tthe ssituaationn willl bee thaat hoow muuch iinvenntoryy do I haave tto hoold? 也就是說，現(xiàn)現(xiàn)在的情況況

45、是我必須須持有多少少存貨呢？2 monnths, so how muchh noww is the inveentorry iss in the totaal suupplyy chaain- 3 tiimes the leadd timme. 兩個(gè)月，所所以現(xiàn)在整整條供應(yīng)鏈鏈上的存貨貨總共多少少？前置時(shí)時(shí)間的三倍倍。Do yoou unndersstandd noww whyy peoople are tellling you to sshrinnk thhe leead ttime? 你現(xiàn)在知道道為什么人人們都叫你你縮短前置置時(shí)間了嗎嗎？Becauuse tthe iinvenntoryy

46、 thaat thhe suupplyy chaain hhas tto hoold iis noow 3 timees moore.因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)在供供應(yīng)鏈里持持有的存貨貨變成了三三倍。And bby thhat wwelll do everrythiing pperfeect? 這樣一來，每每件事情都都會(huì)很完美美嗎？Oh, nno, ssuppoose tthat 2 moonthss wass enoough to ccompeensatte foor thhe maarkett fluuctuaationns. 不會(huì)，假設(shè)設(shè)兩個(gè)月就就足以抵銷銷市場(chǎng)的波波動(dòng)。What abouut soomet

47、iimes the suppply ggoingg intto prrobleems? 如果有時(shí)候候供給出現(xiàn)現(xiàn)問題了呢呢？I am not talkking abouut sttrikee, I am ttalkiing aaboutt- wee askked ffor iit frrom tthe vvendoor, aand tthis timee thee venndor had anotther moree impportaant oorderr. 我不是指罷罷工，而是是指我們向向供貨商訂訂貨，這時(shí)時(shí)候供貨商商要處理另另一筆更重重要的訂單單。Or, tthe sship was stu

48、cck inn cusstomss or whatteverr. 或是船被困困在海關(guān)等等情況。Have you hearrd abbout suchh greeat tthinggs? 你聽過這類類偉大的事事情嗎？Sometthingg wennt wrrong. 某件事出了了差錯(cuò)。By thhe waay iff youu aree tallkingg aboout aaveraage ssuppllier, I aam noot taalkinng abbout thesse phhenommenallly rreliaable suppplierrs, bbut aaveraage ss

49、uppllier. 順帶一提，我我說的是一一般的供貨貨商，不是是那些十分分可靠的供供貨商。And tthe aaveraage rrepleenishhmentt timme frrom tthis suppplierr is one montth, iit meeans thatt we havee 5% channce tto waait mmore thann 2 mmonthhs. OOk? 這個(gè)供貨商商的平均補(bǔ)補(bǔ)貨時(shí)間是是一個(gè)月，這這意謂著我我們有5%的機(jī)率必必須等兩個(gè)個(gè)月以上，對(duì)對(duì)嗎？Thesee aree aveeragee suppplieers. Ok? 這些是一般般的供貨商

50、商，好嗎？Unlesss yoou arre taalkinng abbout thesse phhenommenall suppplieers tthat reallly ssupplly 999% onn thee timme.除非你說的的是這些999%都會(huì)會(huì)準(zhǔn)時(shí)補(bǔ)貨貨的可靠供供貨商。Now wwhat happpens? 現(xiàn)在發(fā)生什什么事？Our tturtlle goot sttuck on tthe wway, we ccan ggive excuuses to oour ccliennts. 我們的烏龜龜卡在半路路上，我們們可以把這這個(gè)借口告告訴客戶。What is ttheirr

51、 tollerannce ttime? 他們的寬限限時(shí)間是多多久？Zero, whiich mmeanss, goo andd givve thhe exxcusees too thiin aiir. 零，也就是是說，你去去跟空氣說說這個(gè)借口口。Your custtomerr serrvicee is not goodd enoough. 你提供的顧顧客服務(wù)不不夠好。Now yyou sstartt to thinnk aggain.現(xiàn)在你再度度開始思考考。And wwhen you thinnk aggain whatt is now comiing oon yoour mmind, wha

52、at iss thee onlly waay ouut? 你再度思考考時(shí)，會(huì)想想到什么？唯一的解解決方法是是什么？What is tthe oonly way out? Moore iinvenntoryy. 44 monnths? 唯一的解決決方法是持持有更多存存貨，四個(gè)個(gè)月嗎？That is aa prooblemm. 這就是問題題所在。Now II havve a choiice- eithher II am incrreasiing tthe iinvenntoryy eveen moore oor I givee up on ggivinng goood ccustoomer ser

53、vvice, onee of the two. 現(xiàn)在我要做做個(gè)選擇：不是增加加更多存貨貨，就是放放棄提供好好的顧客服服務(wù)，二者者選一。Suppoose, thatt I aam deecidiing- OK, 4 moonthss. 假設(shè)我決定定：好，四四個(gè)月。I am doubblingg thee invventoory aagainn. 結(jié)果我又把把存貨數(shù)量量加倍。Now II willl prrobabbly bbe hoopefuully 99% on ttime.現(xiàn)在我應(yīng)該該能99%的準(zhǔn)時(shí)。But tthen lookk whaat haappenned tto thhe innv

54、enttory, howw manny innventtory turnns doo we havee?但是看一下下存貨，我我們的存貨貨周轉(zhuǎn)率是是多少？If wee willl loook oon onne prroducct noow annd weell thinnk abbout whatt thee prooductt is thinnkingg mayybe wwelll gett thee folllowiing sstateementt froom thhe prroducct. 如果我們站站在一項(xiàng)產(chǎn)產(chǎn)品的角度度思考，也也許可以得得到以下的的結(jié)果。It toook 22 monn

55、ths to rreachh, annd thhen II wass staayingg on the shellf annotheer 4 montths uuntill it was my tturn to bbe deeliveered, to earnn a ccustoomer. 我花兩個(gè)月月到這里，現(xiàn)現(xiàn)在還要在在貨架上待待四個(gè)月，才才能得到一一個(gè)客戶的的芳心。How llovelly! 太美妙了！It waas suuch aan emmergeency, we needd it now! 情況實(shí)在很很緊急，我我們現(xiàn)在就就要！And tthen how muchh timme pa

56、assedd unttil II fouund aa cusstomeer, II fouund tthe oownerr- 6 montths. 然后我花了了多久的時(shí)時(shí)間才找到到主人：六六個(gè)月。If yoou arre loookinng onn manny, mmany induustriies, and you are not lookking on oone llink, butt thee enttire suppply cchainn, hoow maany iinvenntoryy turrns ddo wee tallk abbout? 如果你看的的是許多產(chǎn)產(chǎn)業(yè)，不只只是一個(gè)環(huán)

57、環(huán)節(jié)，而是是整條供應(yīng)應(yīng)鏈，我們們說的存貨貨周轉(zhuǎn)率是是多少？Somettimess, leess tthan one, to thatt exttent. 有時(shí)候甚至至不到1。Are yyou aamazeed? Now, it is nnot aalwayys thhe caase.你很驚訝嗎嗎？現(xiàn)在，情情況并非總總是如此。For eexampple, if yyou aare llookiing iin thhe teextille inndusttry, in tthe ffashiion ggoodss, thhen iit iss mucch beetterr, itt is 2. 舉

58、例來說，紡紡織業(yè)的流流行商品，情情況就比較較好，存貨貨周轉(zhuǎn)率是是2。Do yoou knnow bby thhe waay thhat iin thhe teextille inndusttry aand tthe ffashiion ggoodss we are peopple, shopps orr chaains are buyiing iin thhe suummerr forr thee winnter and in tthe wwinteer foor thhe suummerr. 你知道嗎？對(duì)紡織業(yè)業(yè)和流行商商品來說，消消費(fèi)者、商商店、或供供應(yīng)鏈的購(gòu)購(gòu)買行為是是在夏天買買冬天的商

59、商品，在冬冬天買夏天天的商品。You kknow it vvery welll as a coonsummer. 身為消費(fèi)者者，你應(yīng)該該非常清楚楚這一點(diǎn)。And nnow oone ttime I reealizzed iit beecausse I was stucck inn Minnneappoliss in Febrruaryy andd I hhad tto goo to buy myseelf ssometthingg warrm, aand MMinneeapollis iin Feebruaary ddo yoou knnow wwhat is tthe mmeaniing o

60、of itt? 我之所以會(huì)會(huì)知道這個(gè)個(gè)現(xiàn)象，是是因?yàn)槲叶聲r(shí)被困困在明尼亞亞波利斯，必必須買件保保暖的衣服服，你曉得得二月的明明尼亞波利利斯像什么么嗎？Superr freeezerr.超級(jí)冰庫(kù)。And II wennt inn to the shopps, iin Feebruaary, do yyou kknow whatt I ffoundd in the shopps- ssummeer cllothees. 我在二月走走進(jìn)商店，你你知道我在在里面找到到什么嗎？夏季服飾飾。How llovelly. 太美妙了。It iss likke yoou knnow rrealiity aan