1、市場分析和預測Marketing Analysis & Forecasting教師：黎文2010.09電子郵件：聯(lián)系電話：議題概述市場競爭的層次確定競爭者的方法競爭者的選擇企業(yè)競爭概述在開始工作之前，產(chǎn)品/品牌經(jīng)理必須對作為資料收集和分析對象的產(chǎn)品品類/品牌品類有一個較好的概念認識。確定競爭時，不能確定太多的競爭者，也不能確定太少的競爭者。競爭者就是和自己競爭相同顧客的企業(yè)，基于顧客的競爭；也可以是基于資源的競爭，基于供應商的競爭，或者基于營銷活動的競爭，或者是地理位置的競爭。競爭的基礎顧客導向的競爭他們是誰：為相同預算產(chǎn)生的競爭他們什么時候使用他們?yōu)槭裁词褂茫侯櫩蛯で蟮睦?價值營銷導向的競

2、爭：廣告和促銷主題/文案策略媒體分銷價格資源導向的競爭原材料雇員財務資源地理位置的競爭市場競爭的層次產(chǎn)品形式（product form）：通常追求同一個細分市場，特色屬性都有相似性產(chǎn)品品類（product category）：即經(jīng)理們平時所理解的行業(yè)競爭一般競爭（generic competition）預算競爭（budget competition）Levels of Competition*Diet lemon limesBaseball cardsFruit flavored colasCoffeeDietCokeDietPepsiDiet-Rite colaBottled waterLe

3、mon limesRegularcolasBeerJuicesWineFast foodTeaVideo rentalsIcecreamProduct form competition: Diet colasProduct category competition: Soft drinksGeneric competition: BeveragesBudget competition: Food and entertainmentExample 1: Energy Bar CompetitionOdwalla Power BarBalance BarClifEnergy BarsSnack/H

4、ealth BarsHealthy SnacksOther SnacksNutrigrain Bars Slimfast Bars Granola Bars FruitsNutsJuiceCrackersChipsCandyExample 2: Super-Premium Ice Cream Level of CompetitionDefinitionCompetitorsProduct formSuper-PremiumHaagen-DazsStarbuck/GodivaBen & JerrysProduct category Ice creamBreyersDreyersPrivate l

5、abelsGenericSnacks DessertsNoveltiesFrito LayNabiscoNestlMrs. FieldsYoplaitBudgetOther supermarket, Convenience store productsMany8Example 3: PDALevel of CompetitionDefinitionCompetitorsNeed SatisfiedProduct formFull-featured PDAsPalm Pilot VIIHandspringCompaq AeroPocket PC makersPersonal informatio

6、n management plusintegrated communicationsProduct category PIM (Personal Information Managers)Palm IIIRoyalCasio PV-100PIM onlyGenericTablet PC/Cell phonesToshibaNokiaSamsungOther solutions to the aboveBudget $100-$1,000Paper-based solutionsBusiness items costing$100-$1000RolodexDay TimerFax Machine

7、sPersonal copiersFurniture (e.g. Steelcase)9MP3 Phone CompetitionLevels of Competition: Implications for Your Product StrategyBudgetGenericProduct CategoryProduct FormCompetitive LevelConvince Customers that the Brand is Better than OthersConvince Customers that the Product Form is Best in the Categ

8、oryConvince Customers that the Product Category is the Best Way to Satisfy NeedsConvince Customers that the Generic Benefits are the Most Appropriate Way to Spend their MoneyProduct Management TaskMethods for Determining Competitors*Existing categories: ex) IRI; SIC NAICSManagerial judgmentCustomer-

9、purchase-based measures*Customer-judgment-based measures*Managerial Judgment of CompetitionMarketsSameDifferentProduct/ServicesSameDifferentACBDCustomer-purchase-based measures*Brand Switching Data The Extent of Substitutability among BrandsCross-Elasticity of Demand: Change in Brand Bs Sales/ Chang

10、e in Brand As Price Mainly Used for Nondurable ProductsBrand-Switching MatrixTime t+1ABCDEA.6.2.200B.2.3.4.10C.2.3.500D0.1.1.5.3E.100.4.5Time t15Customer-Judgment-Based Measures*Overall similarity (by Perceptual Mapping)*Similarity of consideration setsProduct deletion (based on product unavailabili

11、ty)Substitution In Use: List all the uses of a product List other products that provides the same usesPerceptual MappingMeans graphic description of customers perception about different brands/products.You can use it to gainBetter understanding of market structure*Customer perceptions for a new prod

12、uct conceptDirection for R&D efforts to satisfy customers betterDeveloping A Perceptual MapTwo Alternative waysAttribute Rating method (AR)Overall Similarity method (OS)Attribute Rating MethodData Cube (brands*attributes*respondents)Statistical Analysis (Factor Analysis)Find out two (or three) axes

13、for the perceptual map Attribute Analysis LimitationsSuitable for B-to-B productsDeveloping A Perceptual MapOverall Similarity method (OS)Suitable for consumer products and servicesAsk consumers perception the extent of similarity of pairs of items. Similarity Data Analysis (Multidimensional Scaling

14、)You name the axes and infer the attributesDefining Competition with Perceptual Mappingexample: dessertsMoistNeeds refrigerationTapioca pudding mixLocal mix Pudding mixChocolate torte mix D-zer ta Jell-OCanned puddingIndividual pieHostess cupcakesQuick bread mixGood for a coffee break As a formal de

15、ssertHomemade cake Bakery cakeHomemade cookies Cheese cake mix“Snackin Cake” mix Frozen cake Layer cake mix “Stirn Frost cake mixTakes a long time to prepare Bundt cake mix Custard mixBoston crme pie mix“Light Style” cake mixCoffee cake mix Bakery cookies Pillsbury cookie dough Cookie mix Easy to carry with meIn my school work lunch Between meal snackPepperidge Farm cookies Oatmeal cookies Frozen pie Homemade pieDate bar mix Brownie mix Bakery pie Methods versus Competition Levels and Information RequiredEnterprise Competition in Financial Servi