1、ARGENTINA: ELECTION TRACKEREMERGING MARKETSPlease refer to important information at the end of this reportApril 2019Florencia Vazquez, Economist | Felipe Klein, EconomistBNP Paribas Sucursal - Buenos Aires獲取報(bào)告1、2、3、每周群內(nèi)7+報(bào)告；當(dāng)日華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)、4、行研報(bào)告均為公開(kāi)利歸原作者所有，起點(diǎn)財(cái)經(jīng)僅分發(fā)做內(nèi)部學(xué)習(xí)。掃一掃關(guān)注 回復(fù)：加入“起點(diǎn)財(cái)經(jīng)”群。KEY MESSAGESCONTEN

2、TSSTATE OF PLAYPOLLSKEY ISSUESPARTIES AND LEADERSCURRENT CONGRESSLINKS TO RECENT PUBLICATIONS2We have updated our Argentina election tracker to include a brief description of the potential candidates who will be formally announced on 22 June (see slides 29-32). We have also added the results of new

3、polls and data on the positive image and rejection rate of the main political leaders.While President Macri's net image stabilized in April, Cristina Kirchners net image has improved due to the poor economic performance (see slides 25 and 28). Meanwhile, Roberto Lavagna, who had emerged as a thr

4、eat to President Macri in a potential run-off, has lost some traction.The format is user friendly and easy to navigate. We will update this tracker frequently to keep you abreast of the latest developments.STATE OF PLAY201 9E l ec t i o nCal endar4Electionprocess5Provincial elections: general aspect

5、s6P r ovincialelect ions:c alendar7Provincial elections: highlights8Provincial elections: details9Provincial governors: political affiliation1032019 ELECTION CALENDAR127 Elections(1st round for president and legislative)27 Official registry of voters is published12 Deadline for formal appointment of

6、 political alliances2 First day of electoral campaign on TV, radio and in newspapers22 Deadline for formal appointment of pre-candidates to compete in the primaries12 Electoral campaign for the national primaries starts12019DecemberSeptemberOctoberNovemberMayJuneJulyAugust13- Formal invitation to th

7、e mandatory presidential debate24 Elections (2nd round for president)10- Registry of pollster companies for the national primaries closes27- Ballot locations are assigned and made public22 Electoral campaign for the general election starts10 New President takes office11 National Primaries (PASO)Sour

8、ces: Direccion Nacional Electoral, BNP Paribas1. Some dates are tentative and will be confirmed later.49 Polls and electoral forecasts are bannedNATIONAL ELECTION PROCESS AND FEATURESPrima(PAPresieleLegiselectSource: BNP Paribas5Parliamentary elections are held on the same date as the first round of

9、 the presidentiallativeelection.ionsIn 2019, elections will be held for one-third of the Senate and half of the lower chamber.With no party likely to hold a majority in Congress, alliances will have to be made to passlegislation.- For a candidate to win the presidential election in the first round h

10、e/she needs to securedentialeither 45% of the valid votes; or, at least 40% of the valid votes with a difference of atctionleast 10pp versus the runner-up.- For all other outcome, a second round needs to take place. We think a second round islikely to be needed this year.Primaries are mandatory. The

11、y are relevant as they are as good as live polls and are thusriesa good proxy for the actual election result as voters are required to vote for only oneSO)candidate. Any candidate who wins at least 1.5% of the valid votes in the primaries cancontest the election. The primary provides valuable inform

12、ation that can be used to improveperformance in the October first-round vote (especially for the ruling party).PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS: GENERAL ASPECTSARGENTINIAN PROVINCES (IN MILLIONS OF INHABITANTS)Watch for: The race in the province of Buenos Aires, which has the largest population (39%) ofArgentin

13、iansBuenos Aires province (15.6) Santa Fe (3.2)Mendoza (1.7)Entre Ríos (1.2)Misiones (1.1)Corrientes (1.0)San Juan (0.7)Río Negro (0.6)Formosa (0.5)San Luis (0.4)La Rioja (0.3)Santa Cruz (0.3)Córdoba (3.3)Buenos Aires autonomous city (2.9) Tucumán (1.5)Salta (1.2)Provincia del Ch

14、aco (1.1)SantiagEstero (0.9)Jujuy (0.7)Neuquén (0.6)Chubut (0.5)Catamarca (0.4)La Pampa (0.3) Tierra del Fuego (0.0)0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Sources: Direccion Nacional Electoral, BNP Paribas6n WHICH: All provinces, excluding Corrientes and Santiag Estero which had gubernatorial electio

15、ns in 2017, will elect governor and local legislators. There are no elections in SantiagEstero this year.n TIMING: Most provinces have decided to separate local elections from the presidential election in 2019. The province of Buenos Aires has recently decided not to separate the two. Given governor

16、 Maria Eugenia Vidals popularity, this decision could boost the chances of President Macri getting re-elected as almost 40% of Argentinians live in the province.UPCOMING PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS: CALENDAR & RESULTS7ProvinceGovernorLegislativePrimariesResultParticipationNeuquénMarch 10No primari

17、esMPN (local movement)78.4%Río NegroApril 7NoneJuntos Somos Rio Negro (local movement)72.7%CórdobaMay 12NoneLa RiojaMay 12NoneLa PampaMay 19Feb 17CorrientesnoJune 2San JuanJune 2March 31MisionesJune 2NoneChubutJune 9April 7Entre RíosJune 9April 14JujuyJune 9NoneTucumánJune 9San L

18、uisJune 16April 21Santa FeJune 16April 28T. del FuegoJune 16NoneMendozaSeptember 29June 9FormosaOctober 27August 11Buenos AiresOctober 27August 11CABAOctober 27August 11SaltaOctober 27August 11Santa CruzOctober 27No primariesChacoTBCCatamarcaTBDNoneS. Del EsteroNo elections this yearNonePROVINCIAL E

19、LECTIONS: HIGHLIGHTSNEWThe Peronist party performed well in yesterdays Santa Fe (Argentinas third largest province) primary election, beating the ruling Frente Progresista Cívico y Social by 11 pp. While Antonio Bonfatti, the candidate from the ruling front, attracted 31.1% of the votes, the tw

20、o Peronist candidates gathered a combined 42.7% of the votes Omar Perotti and María Eugenia Bielsa won 28.2% and 14.5% of the votes, respectively. Cambiemos candidate Jose Corral came in third, as widely expected, with 19.7% of the votes. Cambiemos performance has declined visibly from the 2015

21、 election, when it lost in a tight race against the ruling front by less than 1 pp. The gubernatorial election in Santa Fe will be held on 16 June.Sources: La Nacion, BNP Paribas8UPCOMING PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS: HIGHLIGHTSThe election in Córdoba (May 12) will be in the spotlight, given the size o

22、f the province (second largest) and the relevance it had for President Macri's victory in 2015. The leading candidates for governor are:1)Juan Schiaretti: candidate for the “Hacemos por Córdoba” front (that includes the Peronist party and GEN, among other parties) and current governor of th

23、e province.Mario Negri: candidate for the Córdoba Cambia front (Cambiemos). Ramón Mestre: candidate for the UCR.2)3)The last two candidates belong to the Cambiemos coalition. The lack of an agreement on who should be the gubernatorial candidate resulted in Cambiemos and the UCR fielding on

24、e candidate each. This could prove to be beneficial for Schiaretti, who is seeking a re-election.However, at the national level this need not hurt President Macris vote intentions.Sources: La Nacion, BNP Paribas9PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS: DETAILSPROVINCIAL RE-ELECTION RULES§§§3 provinces a

25、llow INDEFINITE re-election: Catamarca, Formosa, Santa Cruz.2 provinces allow governors to be re-elected for two additional terms: Salta, San Juan.17 provinces allow governors to be re-elected for one additional term: Buenos Aires, CABA, Chaco, Chubut, Córdoba, Corrientes,Entre Ríos, Jujuy

26、, La Pampa, La Rioja, Misiones, Neuquén, Río Negro, San Luis, S. del Estero, T. del Fuego, Tucumán§2 provinces allow governors to be re-elected but not for consecutive terms: Mendoza, Santa Fe.Sources: Direccion Nacional Electoral, BNP Paribas10ProvinceGovernorSenatorsLegislators

27、Buenos Airesyes2346CABAyesN/A30Catamarcayes820ChacoyesN/A16ChubutyesN/A27CórdobayesN/A70Corrientesno515Entre Ríosyes1734FormosayesN/A15JujuyyesN/A24La PampayesN/A30La RiojayesN/A18ProvinceGovernorSenatorsLegislatorsMendozayes1924MisionesyesN/A20NeuquényesN/A35Río NegroyesN/A46S.

28、del EsteronoN/A0Saltayes1130San Juanyes036San Luisyes521Santa Cruzyes024Santa Feyes1950T. del FuegoyesN/A15TucumányesN/A49PARTY AFFILIATION OF PROVINCIAL GOVERNORSPOLITICAL PARTY AFFILIATION OF ARGENTINAS 23 PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENTSPeronist party (Frente para la Victoria)No national alliance Chub

29、utCambiemos and provincial allies Buenos AiresCatamarca Chaco Entre Ríos Formosa La Rioja Misiones Salta San Juan Santa Cruz T. del Fuego TucumanCompromiso FederalCórdoba La Pampa Neuquén Río NegroSan LuisProgresistasCorrientes Jujuy MendozaS. del EsteroSanta FeIn number of provi

30、ncesIn millions governed.43.25.3Sources: Dirección Nacional Electoral, BNP Paribas1119.049.2012115POLLSPresident's job approval rating12Voting intentions: first round13Rejection rates1412PRESIDENTS APPROVAL AND DISAPPROVAL RATINGS IN 2018APPROVAL AND DISAPPROVAL RATINGS(% of total)120100112

31、2280506059656560404820393934330Jan-Apr 18May-Aug 18Sep-Nov 18Dec 18Jan 19ApprovesDisapprovesUncertainSources: Poliarquía, BNP Paribas13VOTING INTENTIONS FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: SECOND ROUNDVOTING PROSPECTS (% of total)UPDATED50454140403530252019151050Sep 18Oct 18Nov 18MacriDec 18CFKJan 19Feb

32、 19Mar 19Apr 19Undecided, blank, nullSources: Elypsis, BNP Paribas14REJECTION RATESI WOULD NEVER VOTE FOR (% of total)UPDATED70%60%49%50%46%40%30%20%10%3%0%Oct 18Nov 18Dec 18CFKJan 19MMFeb 19DifferenceMar 19Apr 19Sources: Elypsis, BNP Paribas15APPROVAL RATINGSPOSITIVE, NEGATIVE AND NET IMAGE OF POLI

33、TICIANS (% of total) - April 2019NEWPositiveNegativeNet Image60%40%31%7%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-54%-80%-70%-100%MacriCFKLavagnaVidalSources: Isonomía, La Voz, BNP Paribas16VOTING INTENTIONS FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: SECOND ROUNDVOTING PROSPECTS (% of total) - April 20195045NEW36MacriCFKUndecided, bl

34、ank, nullSources: Isonomía, Perfil, BNP Paribas17KEY ISSUES FOR THE ELECTORATEConfidence in government23Views on fiscal adjustment24View on Argentina's current situation25Expectations over the future26Main problems for voters2718CONFIDENCE IN GOVERNMENTUPDATED3.53.0MM2.42.5CFK IICFK I1.82.0

35、1.00.50.0Dec-07Dec-09Dec-11Dec-13Dec-15Dec-17Sources: UTDT, BNP Paribas19VOTERS VIEWS ON FISCAL ADJUSTMENTHow voters view the fiscal adjustment proposed in the 2019 budget bill (December 2018)FPV votersGoodEvil but necessary Evil and unnecessary OtherCambiemos voters198Total89Sources: DAles

36、sio IROL Berensztein, BNP Paribas207510HOW DO YOU EVALUATE TERAL SITUATION OF THE COUNTRY?100%3875%54586450%3125%220%Jan-AprMay-AugSep-NovWill worsenDecWill improveSameSources: Poliarquía, BNP Paribas21HOW DO YOU SEE T YEAR?ERAL SITUATION OF THE COUNTRY IN A35394042Will deteriorateUnchanged Wil

37、l improve2021191842383736Jan-AprMay-AugSep-NovDecSources: Poliarquía, BNP Paribas22ARGENTINAS MAIN PROBLEMWHAT DO YOU THINK IS ARGENTINAS MAIN PROBLEM? (March 2019)Loss of school days, 3.6Drug trafficking, 3.9Other, 2.5Corruption, 17.9Tariff hikes, 10.7Public safety, 16.5Poverty, 14UPDATEDUnemp

38、loyment, 15.5Inflation, 15.4Sources: Management & Fit, BNP Paribas Poll date: 11-17 March, 2019;.Cases: 2000.23ECONOMIC PROBLEMS: 55.6%PARTIESCambiemos (ruling coalition)24Cambiemos: leaders, by public image25Frente Unidad Ciudadana (left-wing opposition)26Peronist party (PJ)27Opposition leaders

39、, by public image28Potential pre-candidates29NEW24CAMBIEMOSEconomic policies/philosophy:Since taking office in 2015, President Macri has liberalised the FX market, reduced subsidies on energy tariffs and implemented a gradual fiscal adjustment that had to be accelerated in 2018-19.The lack of market

40、 access since Q2 2018 prompted the government tosecure a USD57bn package from the IMF.Centre-right coalition created in 2015Likely candidate: Current president Mauricio MacriParties currently in the coalition:Seats in Congress:Senate: 26 / 72.Lower chamber: 108 / 257.Party leaders: Mauricio Macri (P

41、RO), Alfredo Cornejo (UCR), ElisaCarrió (CC-ARI), María Eugenia Vidal (PRO).25POLITICAL LEADERS (CAMBIEMOS): NET POSITIVE IMAGEUPDATEDSources: Elypsis , BNP Paribas26FRENTE UNIDAD CIUDADANAEconomic policies/philosophy:The motivation behind the party is to “unite the citizens to limit the p

42、ower of President Mauricio Macri and to prevent the elimination of social rights approved (during the past administrations)”.Plans to propose that no legislator within the party will vote against the partys political agenda (unlike some Peronist legislators).Created after former President Cristina K

43、irchner finished her term, as aspin-off to the Peronist party.Left-wing coalition created In 2017Likely candidate: Former President Cristina KirchnerParties in the coalition:Seats in Congress:Senate: 9 / 72Lower chamber: 64 / 257Party leader: Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (PartidVictoria).a27P

44、ARTIDO JUSTICIALISTAEconomic policies/philosophy:Originally known as the Peronist party, it was founded by General Perón in 1946. Its current name was adopted in 1971. Since social justice has been the partys main goal, it has traditionally been close to labor unions and workers.It is the party

45、 with the largest number of affiliates (around 3.5 million in2017).Centrist, big-tent coalitionPotential candidates:1.Roberto LavagnaJ. M. Urtubey2.3.A. Rossi4.Sergio MassaParties in the coalition:Seats in Congress:Senate: 23 / 72.Lower chamber: 37 / 257.Party leaders: Miguel Pichetto and Diego Boss

46、io.28POLITICAL LEADERS (OPPOSITION): NET POSITIVE IMAGEUPDATEDSources: Elypsis, BNP Paribas29MAURICIO MACRINEWIDEOLOGYAge 60 Born 8 February 1959 Tandil, ArgentinaPolitical Background President (2015-present) BA city mayor (2007-11, 2011-15) Legislator, BA city (2005-07)Education1BIO23Civil engineer

47、ing, Universidad Católica Argentina4Political PartyCambiemosThe Macri administration has sought to eliminate economic distortions, regain access to capital markets and address growing macroeconomic imbalances.A gradual fiscal adjustment was initially attempted. However, the inability to tap mar

48、kets since Q2 2018 forced the government to accelerate the pace of fiscal consolidation and seek IMF assistance.Amid rising inflation and an ongoing economic recession, confidence in Macri's government has plummeted 46% since October 2017, according to UTDTs confidence in government index.512345

49、Source: Americas QuarterlyPERCEPTION (April 2019)Economic policies/ track recordMacri29%56%PositiveNegativeSource: Elypsis30Left WingNationalistRight WingMacriGlobalistCRISTINA KIRCHNERNEWIDEOLOGY1234512345Source: Americas QuarterlyPERCEPTION (April 2019)Kirchner43%47%PositiveNegativeSource: Elypsis

50、31KirchnerLeft WingNationalistRight WingGlobalistBIOAge 66 Born 19 February 1953 La Plata, ArgentinaPolitical Background National senator, Province of Buenos Aires (2017-present) President (2007-11, 2011-15) National senator, Province of Buenos Aires (2005-07) National senator, Province of Santa Cru

51、z (2001-05)Education Law, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.Political Party Unidad Ciudadana (Peronist party spin-off)Economic policies/ track record During her eight years in office, the government nationalized pension funds, distorted national statistics and imposed capital controls. An increasing fiscal deficit financed through the central bank kept inflation at double digits despite frozen utility tariffs and currency controls. Financial and political isolation from the rest of the world were favoured.ROBERTO LAVAGNANEW32IDEOLOGY1234512345Sour