1、微通道換熱器項目商業計劃Business Plan for MCHX ProjectD，SD & S2006年8月18日1. 背景1. Background1.1 項目背景1.1 Project BackgroundMCHX（微通道換熱器）是一種采用全鋁材料制成的高效換熱器。從技術上說，該項技術已經成熟并且已經成功運用于汽車空調系統，包括R134a和CO2系統。MCHX (Micro Channel Heat Exchanger) is a high efficiency all aluminum heat exchanger. Technically this technology

2、has been mature and been successfully applied in automobile air conditioning system, both for R134a and CO2 system. 在過去的一年半的時間內，銅材的價格持續上揚，而同時鋁材的價格保持相對的穩定。現在銅材的價格幾乎是鋁材價格的3.5倍。由于兩種材料間存在著的明顯的價格差異，以及微通道換熱器全鋁結構的特點，與傳統的管翅式換熱器（T&F HX）相比較，微通道換熱器具有明顯的成本上的優勢。在如今價格競爭日趨激烈的家用空調市場上，該成本優勢具有足夠的吸引力，讓許多家用空調生產廠商考慮

3、采用微通道來替換管翅式換熱器。In the last one and half years, the copper price soared while the aluminum price kept relatively stable, and the current copper price is almost 3.5 times of aluminum price. Because of the significant price gap between copper and aluminum, there exists, compared to conventional tube an

4、d fin heat exchanger (T&F HX), great cost advantage for MCHX because of its all aluminum structure. In current intensive price competition situation for residential air conditioner (RAC) industry, this cost advantage has big enough attractiveness to the RAC OEMs to consider using MCHX to replace

5、 T&F HX. D公司和S公司意識到了這個商機并且制定了本商業計劃來開拓在微通道換熱器市場上的合作。D and S see the opportunity and develop this business plan to explore cooperation for MCHX business. 1.2 微通道換熱器可能的應用領域1.2 Possible Application Fields for MCHX雖然微通道換熱器現在主要應用于汽車空調中，但是從長遠來看，我們仍然可以看到它將在許多不同的換熱場合得到運用，因此以下的一些應用可以包括進本合作項目的應用領域范圍：Althou

6、gh currently MCHX is mainly applied in automobile AC, we can still see, in the long term view, the great opportunities to applying MCHX in various heat exchanging situations and below industries can be included into the application range for this MCHX cooperation project: ü 空調（家用和商用）Air conditi

7、oning (residential and commercial)ü 商用冷凍Commercial refrigerationü 發動機熱回收Engine heat reclaimü 醫療設備Pharmaceutical equipmentü 干燥設備（洗衣機）Drying equipment (washing machine)本商業計劃的第一步將主要關注家用空調市場，因為其擁有巨大的市場潛力，同時D公司和S公司在該領域內也擁有豐富的市場資源。For the first step, this business plan will mainly focu

8、s on RAC industry because of its tremendous potential, as well as market resources in this industry from D and S. 1.3 容量范圍1.3 Capacity Range關于容量范圍，我們將主要關注30冷噸以下的市場，該市場主要覆蓋了家用和輕型商用空調市場。對于更大的容量，可以采用換熱器并聯的方式來實現，因此不會在本商業計劃中涉及。Regarding the capacity range, well basically look at the market of capacity be

9、low 30 ton, which covers the market for residential and light commercial AC industries. For the bigger range, it can be easily reached by paralleling MCHX, thus will not be discussed by this business plan. 1.4 D和S優勢1.4 Advantages of D and SD和S都對該合作計劃有濃厚的興趣，并且互相將對方視為最好的合作伙伴。我們都相信雙方擁有可以互補的獨特優勢，從而自然形成了

10、最好的合作組合。Both D and S are very interested in this cooperation project and see each other as the best cooperation partner because we believe both sides have their unique advantages which are complementary to each other, forming a naturally excellent combination to this cooperation. D是一家為制冷與空調行業提供部件和解決

11、方案的專業公司，可憑借其如下優勢對本項目提供幫助：D is a professional component and solution provider for R&AC industries, which can mainly contribute to the project with their exceptional advantages in ü 應用知識Application knowledgeü 研發能力R&D capabilityü 市場信息Market informationS是國內領先的制冷和空調設備部件的供應商并且在如下方面具

12、有突出的優勢：S is a Chinese leading supplier for RAC components and has great advantages in ü 豐富的制造經驗，尤其是大規模生產的經驗Manufacturing experience, especially for mass productionü 家用空調市場信息和資源Market information and resources in RAC market1.5 合作模式1.5 Cooperation Mode該商業計劃的合作模式如下：This business plan is aimin

13、g at a cooperation mode as below. ü D和S成立合資公司，投資比例為50%：50%A JV by D and S, 50% to 50%ü 獨立運作Independent operation我們采用這種合作模式的理由如下：The reasons why we prefer this cooperation mode are listed as below. Ø 巨大的市場潛力Huge market potential微通道換熱器的市場非常巨大，足以提供一個獨立的平臺來進行操作。The market for MCHX is big

14、enough to provide a platform for an independent operation. Ø 快速反應的必要性Necessity of fast response該市場已經進入了快速增長的階段，因此快速的反應以及迅速的決策是該計劃的關鍵成功因素。The industry has entered into the fast growing phase, and fast response and quick decision are the key success factors for this business. 2. 目標市場及投資規模2. Targe

15、t Market and Investment Scale如前所述，該計劃第一階段的目標市場是家用空調市場。考慮到微通道換熱器在用作蒸發器時仍存在一些技術問題（如冷凝水的排放，回油問題等），本商業計劃主要關注其在單冷空調中作為冷凝器的應用。為了能夠加快該項計劃的實施，中國（占全球制冷空調市場70%份額）被選為第一階段的目標市場。As stated before, the target market for this project for the first stage is RAC industry. Considering there still some technical proble

16、ms (such as condensate drainage, oil return, etc.) to use MCHX as evaporator, the condenser for cooling only type RAC is the major application for this business plan. In order to facilitate the project quickly, China, which covers 70% of RAC production in the world, is selected as the target region

17、for the first stage. 2.1 市場情況2.1 Market SituationØ 市場規模Market size2005年中國家用空調市場總體規模1如圖1所示。The overall market size in 2005 for China RAC market “中國家用空調市場規模”是指中國家用空調器的生產量，而不是中國市場的銷售量。大部分中國生產的家用空調都用于出口。The “China RAC market size” refers to the production quantity of RAC in China, but not the sales

18、 of RAC in China. Major part of China production is for overseas business. is showed in Figure 1. 百萬臺m.unitFigure 1: China RAC Market, 2005從該圖中我們可以看出，中國2005年的制冷與空調市場的市場規模為6千萬臺，其中有將近2千萬臺是單冷型（包括窗式和分體式）。From the figure we can see that the overall market size for China RAC is 60 m.unit, among which arou

19、nd 20 m.unit are cooling only type (including window type and split type). Ø 單冷空調的市場趨勢Market trend for cooling only單冷空調和熱泵空調在價格上的差異保證了市場對于單冷空調的需求，因此單冷空調市場在未來仍將保持平穩的發展。根據對中國一些主要的家用空調客戶所做的調查，單冷空調市場將會在未來5年內保持7%的增長。The market for cooling only type will keep stable in the future, because the price d

20、ifference between cooling only type and reversible type ensures the demand for cooling only type. Based on the sample investigation for some key accounts in China RAC market, the cooling only market will grow at 7% in the next 5 years. Ø 價格的敏感性Price sensitivity由于在家用空調市場中激烈的價格競爭，家用空調的利潤目前已經十分有限，

21、空調廠家對于配件的價格都非常敏感。因此，如果一項新技術能夠將成本降低10%，其需求將會非常巨大，而用微通道換熱器來替代管翅式換熱器來作為冷凝器使用也恰恰就是這種情況。Due to the intensive price competition in RAC industry, the margin space for RAC is very limited currently and RAC OEMs are very sensitive to component price. Therefore, there will be definitely huge demand for substi

22、tution if there is 10% cost reduction possibility for new technology, and this is exactly the case for MCHX replacing T&F HX for condensers. Ø 用戶的興趣Customers interests已經有一些家用空調廠家對微通道換熱器產生了濃厚的興趣：Some RAC customers have already showed great interests in MCHX technology: ü 松下Matsushita松下對

23、于微通道換熱器顯示了濃厚的興趣，并且承諾如果該產品成功投產，會有大量的需求。Matsushita is very interested in MCHX and they promised huge demand if the product is available. ü 海信HiSenseS給海信提供了三種類型的微通道換熱器樣品進行測試（測試結果將會在后面分析）。S provided them three types of MCHX samples for testing (the testing result showed in below pages). ü TCLT

24、CL當TCL了解到相關的微通道換熱器的消息時，他們主動地和S進行了聯系。TCL contacted S actively when they heard about the news on MCHX. ü 長虹ChanghongChanghong也對微通道換熱器表示了興趣。Changhong is also interested in the product. 2.2 微通道換熱器產品競爭優勢分析2.2 Competitive Advantages Analysis for MCHX Product相比較于傳統的管翅式換熱器，微通道換熱器在如下方面有著明顯的優勢從而具有很強的競爭力：

25、Compared to the conventional T&F HX, the MCHX product has prominent advantages which provide it great competitiveness. Ø 高效率High efficiency由于微通道換熱器杰出的性能，和傳統的管翅式換熱器相比較，其傳熱系數有明顯的提高。根據在海信的樣品測試結果，10孔的微通道換熱器其傳熱效率平均提高了59%，4孔的達到了47%。Because of MCHXs outstanding performance, the heat transfer effic

26、iency can be improved a lot compared to conventional T&F HX. The sample testing result in HiSense showed an average improvement of 59% for 10-hole MCHX was reached, and 47% for 4-hole MCHX was reached. Ø 體積小，重量輕Compact size and light weight由于微通道換熱器的高效的特點，其外形尺寸及重量都比管翅式換熱器要小。例如，在海信的測試的微通道換熱器樣

27、品比管翅式的要小20%，而重量則輕3040%。Because of the high efficiency characteristics of MCHX, the size and weight can be reduced compared to T&F HX. For example, the MCHX sample tested in HiSense is 20% smaller than T&F HX, and the weight is 3040% lower. Ø 制冷劑充注量Refrigerant charge因為微通道管的內容積要遠小于管翅式換熱器，

28、所以制冷劑充注量也能夠減少，即使在系統中需要增加貯液器的情況下亦是如此。研究表明，在采用微通道換熱器作為冷凝器時，制冷劑的充注量平均將減少30%。Because the internal volume of MC pipe is much smaller than T&F tube, the refrigerant charge can also be reduced, even there might need an additional receiver in the system. Research shows averagely 30% lower charge can be

29、reached because of the introduction of MCHX condenser. 將來如果微通道換熱器的應用擴大到蒸發器，則該優勢將會更加明顯，因為蒸發器中的制冷劑量會大幅減少，并且系統不需設置貯液器。If in the future the application of MCHX is expanded to evaporator, this advantage can even be much larger considering the charge reduction in evaporator and no need for receiver. Ø

30、; 成本優勢Cost competitiveness由于銅材和鋁材之前巨大的價格差異以及重量上的差別，微通道換熱器相比管翅式換熱器有著巨大的價格優勢。從樣品的分析可知，其成本只有管翅式（9.52）的57%。實際上，現有的樣品還需要進一步完善（通過減小管壁厚度以及管的數量），這樣成本降低的潛力還能更大。Because of the lower weight and the big price difference between copper and aluminum, there will be great cost competitiveness for MCHX compared to T

31、&F HX. The analysis for the testing sample shows 43% lower cost than T&F HX (9.52). Actually the sample need to be optimized (by reducing the wall thickness of MC pipe and the pipe number), and the higher cost saving potential can be reached. 如果在將來，我們能將微通道換熱器應用于蒸發器，則成本節省空間將會更大。And if in the

32、future, we can apply MCHX to evaporator, the cost saving space will be much larger. Ø 大規模生產Mass production微通道換熱器的結構決定了該產品適合于大規模生產。通過確定一系列的標準扁管（不同的孔數和管尺寸）,可以很容易地對微通道換熱器進行標準化，從而可以通過調整扁管數量來滿足客戶對于換熱量的不同需求。而S在低成本大規模生產方面的經驗無疑將給本項目帶來益處。The structure of MCHX (MC pipes and fins) determines that this pro

33、duct is suitable for mass production. It can easily be standardized by defining a series of standard pipes (different hole numbers and pipe size) and can meet different requirement of heat transfer by changing the number of pipes. And Ss experiences in managing mass production with cost competitiven

34、ess will surly benefit this project. Ø 季節能效比（SEER）的提高SEER improvement研究發現當房間空調器采用高效的微通道換熱器時，系統的SEER可以得到提高。考慮到許多國家對SEER有嚴格的標準，這將有助于微通道換熱器的推廣。Research shows the improvement in SEER can be reached for RAC adopting high efficiency MCHX. This will help the promotion of MCHX considering that a lot of

35、 countries are having strict standard on SEER performance for RAC. 2.3 合資方式的優勢分析2.3 Competitive Advantages Analysis for the JV CooperationD和S都認為成立合資公司是最好的戰略選擇，其理由如下：Both D and S see the cooperation for a JV as the best strategy option with the rationale as below: Ø 制冷知識和生產經驗的結合Combination of re

36、frigeration know-how and manufacturing experience合資公司將會從D和S的結合中獲得巨大的競爭力。同一些國際公司（如Modine和Delphi）相比，合資公司在成本控制上擁有優勢。而和許多中國本土的潛在競爭對手相比，合資公司的優勢則體現在在微通道換熱器和制冷系統的研發和技術上。The JV will gain great competitiveness from the combination of D and S with their advantages. Compared to international companies like Mod

37、ine, and Delphi, the JV has advantages in cost control. And compared to potential local Chinese competitors, the JV has advantages in R&D capability and technology know-how about MCHX and refrigeration system. Ø 用戶資源Customer resourceD和S在家用空調和輕型商用空調行業中都擁有堅實的用戶基礎，這樣能使該合資公司輕松地進入市場并且迅速壯大。Both D

38、 and S have solid customer base in residential and light commercial AC industries, which can enable the JV enter into the market easily and expand quickly. Ø 首先進入家用空調市場的優勢Advantage of first entrant for RAC industry如今，在中國的家用空調市場并沒有微通道換熱器的供應商，該合資公司的建立和迅速成長將會對新進入該行業者構成進入壁壘。Currently there is no MC

39、HX supplier for China RAC industry, and the setup and rapid growth of the JV will form an entry barrier to other newcomers into this industry. Ø 持續的降成本能力Continuous cost reduction capability利用D的技術知識和S的制造經驗，該合資公司將在微通道換熱器的成本優化方面擁有很大的空間，而這也能增加合資公司在市場上的持續競爭力。With D technical know-how and Ss manufact

40、uring experience, the JV has big space for cost optimization for MCHX, which will provide the JV continuous competitiveness in the market. 2.4 目標投資規模2.4 Target Investment Scale根據市場規模、以及D和S的市場資源及經驗，我們的目標投資規模如下：According to the market size and the market resources and experiences of D and S, we target

41、 the investment scale as below. 表1：目標市場投資規模Table 1: Target investment scale年份Year第一年Year 1第二年Year 2第三年Year 3產能（百萬套）Production capacity (m.unit)*3. 技術可行性分析3. Technical Feasibility Analysis3.1 1.5hp微通道換熱器樣品測試3.1 Sample Testing for 1.5 hp MCHXS在海信的1.5匹機上對一些微通道換熱器樣品進行了測試。測試結果證明了微通道換熱器用于冷凝器的可行性以及它和傳統的管翅式

42、換熱器相比所體現的優勢。主要的測試結果如下所列：S tested some MCHX condenser samples in HiSense in its 1.5 hp RAC. The testing demonstrate the feasibility of using MCHX as condenser in RAC as well as the advantages of MCHX compared to conventional T&F HX. The main testing results are showed as below. Ø 效率Efficienc

43、y在測試中發現機器的效率得到了很大的提高。和管翅式換熱器1(9.52)相比較，微通道換熱器1（10孔）和微通道換熱器2（4孔）在能效上分別提高了45%和34%。 并且和管翅式換熱器1(7)相比較，分別提高了72%和59%。Big efficiency improvement was found in the testing. Compared to T&F HX 1 (9.52), the efficiency of MCHX 1 (10-hole) and MCHX 2 (4-hole) reached 45% and 34% respectively. And compared t

44、o T&F HX 2 (7), it reached 72% and 59% respectively. 表2：微通道換熱器1(10孔)和管翅式換熱器1( 9.52)及管翅式換熱器2( 7)的比較Table 2: MCHX 1 (10-hole) compare to T&F HX 1 (9.52) and T&F HX 2 (7)換熱器類型HX type微通道1(10孔)MCHX 1 (10-hole)管翅式1(9.52)T&F HX 1 (9.52)管翅式2（7）T&F HX 2(7)冷凝溫度()Condensing temp. ()Tc=48Tc=

45、50Tc=48Tc=50Tc=48Tc=50傳熱量(W)Heat transfer (W)6,0687,0024,1734,8123,5224,077能效提高率（%）Efficiency improvement (%)N/AN/A45%46%72%72%表3: 微通道換熱器2(4孔)和管翅式換熱器1(9.52)及管翅式換熱器2(7)的比較Table 3: MCHX 2 (4-hole) compare to T&F HX 1 (9.52) and T&F HX 2 (7)換熱器類型HX type微通道2(4孔)MCHX 2 (4-hole)管翅式1(9.52)T&F H

46、X 1 (9.52)管翅式2(7)T&F HX 2(7)冷凝溫度()Condensing temp. ()Tc=48Tc=50Tc=48Tc=50Tc=48Tc=50傳熱量(W)Heat transfer (W)5,6036,5094,1734,8123,5224,077能效提高率（%）Efficiency improvement (%)N/AN/A34%35%59%60%Ø 壓降Pressure drop微通道換熱器和管翅式換熱器1相比較，壓降幾乎相同。同管翅式換熱器2相比較其壓降降低較大。Compared to T&F HX 1 (9.52), the press

47、ure drop is almost the same. While compare to T&F HX 2 (7), the pressure drop of MCHX reduces a lot. 表4 ：壓降測試結果Table 4: Testing result for pressure drop換熱器類型HX type微通道1(10孔)MCHX 1(10-hole)微通道2(4孔)MCHX 2(4-hole)管翅式1(9.52)T&F HX 1(9.52)管翅式管熱器2(7)T&F HX 2(7)冷凝溫度48時的壓降（MPa）Pressure drop unde

48、r Tc = 48 (Mpa)0.0220.0190.0140.091冷凝溫度50時的壓降（Mpa）Pressure drop under Tc = 50 (Mpa)0.0320.0280.0230.119Ø 外形尺寸及重量Size and weight和管翅式換熱器相比較，微通道換熱器樣品在外形尺寸上要小20%，重量上要輕30%40%。The size of the MCHX sample is 20% smaller than T&F HX, and the weight is 3040% lower. 3.2 應用經驗3.2 Application Experience

49、s由于其良好的承壓能力、緊湊的外型以及輕巧的重量，微通道換熱器在汽車空調行業的R134a系統中得到了長期的應用。這些實際的應用經驗表明了微通道換熱器用作空調系統換熱器的技術可行性。美國德爾福公司已經給約克供應了兩年的微通道冷凝器，并已開始為美國開利開發微通道冷凝器。此外，據說德爾福已經開發出了家用空調器用的微通道蒸發器，并將馬上推向市場。摩汀公司也已經為韓國的家用空調市場開發出了微通道換熱器（包括冷凝器和蒸發器）。MCHX has been applied in R134a system for automobile AC industry for a long time because of

50、 its outstanding characteristics in high pressure resistance, compact size, light weight, etc. These application experiences demonstrate the technical feasibility of using MCHX as heat exchangers in AC system. Delphi US has supplied MCHX condensers for RAC to York for about 2 years and has been deve

51、loping MCHX condensers to Carrier US. And it was said that Delphi has finished the development of MCHX evaporator for RAC and will release for market soon. Modine has also developed MCHX (both condenser and evaporator) for RAC in Korean market. 作為家用空調器制造廠家，美國約克是第一個采用微通道冷凝器的公司，而韓國三星也在探索將微通道換熱器應用到空調行業

52、的可能性。As the RAC makers, York US is the first one to use MCHX condensers and Samsung is also exploring the opportunity of applying MCHX in AC industry. 3.3 銅鋁焊接技術3.3 Soldering Technology for Copper and Aluminum許多用戶可能會擔心鋁和銅的焊接問題。事實上，這方面的焊接技術出現并成功地運用到了S生產的樣品中。在該樣品中，銅管接頭已經焊接在換熱器上，這樣客戶只需進行銅-銅焊接即可，而這不會給用戶

53、帶來任何困難。Some customers may have worry about the soldering between copper and aluminum. Actually the technology has been developed already and applied in the samples S produced. A copper tube connection is soldered in the MCHX sample and the customer need only do Cu-Cu solder and it doesnt cause any d

54、ifficulty to customers. 3.4 不同技術的可變成本比較3.4 Variable Cost Comparison for Different Technologies為了對可變成本進行比較，我們選取海信1.5hp管翅式換熱器作為例子。管翅式換熱器中所用的主要原材料價格如下所列：In order to compare the variable cost, we chose HiSense 1.5 hp condenser (9.52) as the T&F HX example. The main market prices for raw materials us

55、ed in T&F HX are list as below. 表5：管翅式換熱器原材料價格（含稅）Table 5: Raw material price (incl. VAT) for T&F HX材料Material項目Item單位Unit價格Price光銅管Smooth copper tube電解銅價格Electrolytic copper priceRMB/kg65.00 加工費Processing feeRMB/kg 6.00 銅管單價Copper tube priceRMB/kg71.00 內螺紋銅管Internal thread copper tube電解銅價格E

56、lectrolytic copper priceRMB/kg65.00 加工費Processing feeRMB/kg 8.00 銅管單價Copper tube priceRMB/kg73.00 鋁箔（光箔）Normal aluminum foil鋁價格Aluminum priceRMB/kg19.20 加工費Processing feeRMB/kg 5.00 鋁箔單價Aluminum foil priceRMB/kg24.20 鋁箔（親水箔）Hydrophilic aluminum foil鋁價格Aluminum priceRMB/kg19.20 加工費Processing feeRMB/k

57、g 7.00 鋁箔單價Aluminum foil priceRMB/kg26.20 銅彎頭Copper elbow銅彎頭加工費Copper elbow processing feeRMB/kg 0.03 鍍鋅鐵板Galvanized steet鍍鋅鐵板價格Galvanized steet priceRMB/kg 6.50 焊料（焊環）Solder material (Solder ring)焊料價格Solder material priceRMB/kg90.00 表6中給出了可變成本的比較。有一點需要指出的是，現在的微通道換熱器樣品并沒有進行優化，通過對減小管壁厚度、減少管數以及其它方法，還可以產生巨大的成本削減空間。因此，我們在表6中也列出了經過優化后的成本期望。The variable cost comparison result is listed in Table 6. One thing need to be mentioned is that the current MCHX sample is not optimized. There is still big