TransformingtheFuture:TheImpactofArtificial

IntelligenceinKoreaKorea

SooJungChang,HaminLee,SuminLee,SamilOh(allfromBankofKorea);ZexiSun,andXinCindyXu(IMF)

SIP/2025/013

IMFSelectedIssuesPapersarepreparedbyIMFstaffas

backgrounddocumentationforperiodicconsultationswithmembercountries.ItisbasedontheinformationavailableatthetimeitwascompletedonJanuary21,2025.ThispaperisalsopublishedseparatelyasIMFCountryReportNo25/042.

NATn

2025

MAR

?2025InternationalMonetaryFundSIP/2025/013

IMFSelectedIssuesPaper

AsiaandPacificDepartment

TransformingtheFuture:TheImpactofArtificialIntelligenceinKorea

PreparedbySooJungChang,HaminLee,SuminLee,SamilOh,ZexiSun,andXinCindyXu*

AuthorizedfordistributionbyRahulAnand

March2025

IMFSelectedIssuesPapersarepreparedbyIMFstaffasbackgrounddocumentationforperiodic

consultationswithmembercountries.Itisbasedontheinformationavailableatthetimeitwas

completedonJanuary21,2025.ThispaperisalsopublishedseparatelyasIMFCountryReportNo25/042.

ABSTRACT:ThispaperexaminestheeconomicimpactofArtificialIntelligence(AI)inKorea.KoreaisamongtheglobalfrontrunnersinAIadoption,withhigheradoptionratesamonglarger,younger,andtechnologicallyadvancedfirms.AIholdsthepromiseforboostingproductivityandoutput,thoughtheeffectsaremore

pronouncedamonglargerandmatureKoreanfirms.AbouthalfofjobsareexposedtoAI,withhigher

exposuresamongfemale,younger,moreeducated,andhigherincomeworkers.Korea’sstronginnovationanddigitalinfrastructurehighlightsitsAIreadiness,whileenhancinglabormarketflexibilityandsocialsafetynetsareessentialtofullyharnessAI’spotential.

RECOMMENDEDCITATION:Chang,etal.2025.“TransformingTheFuture:TheImpactofArtificial

IntelligenceinKorea”,IMFSelectedIssuesPaperSIP/25/13,InternationalMonetaryFund,Washington,DC.

JELClassificationNumbers:

E24,H2,J24,O33

Keywords:

ArtificialIntelligence,AI,labormarket,productivity,growth

Author’sE-MailAddress:

crystalj@bok.or.kr;hamin@bok.or.kr;alephs@bok.or.kr;

samil.oh@bok.or.kr;zsun@;xxu2@

SELECTEDISSUESPAPERS

TransformingtheFuture:The

ImpactofArtificialIntelligenceinKorea

Korea

PreparedbySooJungChang,HaminLee,SuminLee,SamilOh(allfromBankofKorea);ZexiSun,andXinCindyXu(IMF)

1

1Theauthor(s)wouldliketothankMr.RahulAnandforguidanceandfeedbackonthepaper,andtheKoreanauthoritiesfromtheBankofKorea,MinistryofEconomyandFinance,MinistryofEmploymentandLabor,andKoreaDevelopmentInstitute,forcommentsandsuggestions.

REPUBLICOFKOREA

SELECTEDISSUES

January21,2025

ApprovedBy

AsianandPacificDepartment

PreparedbySooJungChang,HaminLee,SuminLee,SamilOh,(allfromBankofKorea);ZexiSun,andXinCindyXu

(IMF)

CONTENTS

TRANSFORMINGTHEFUTURE:THEIMPACTOFARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCEIN

KOREA 3

A.Introduction 3

B.AIAdoption 5

C.AIandLaborMarket 8

D.AI,Productivity,andOutput 13

E.AIPreparedness 19

F.Conclusion 22

BOX

1.AI-RelatedPoliciesandRegulationInitiativesinKorea 21

FIGURES

1.AIInnovationandAdoptionintheWorld 3

2.KoreaAsaTopInnovatorandChipProducer 4

3.KoreaAtGlobalForefrontinAIAdoption 6

4.RisingAIUsageinKoreanFirms 6

5.EstimationResultsfortheAdoptionRegression 8

6.EmploymentSharesbyAIExposureandComplementarity 9

7.EmploymentSharesbyAIExposureandComplementaritybyOccupations 9

8.ShareofEmploymentinHighExposureOccupationsbyDemographicGroup 10

9.OccupationExposuresandPotentialComplementaritybyIncomeDeciles 10

10.OccupationalTransitionsforWorkers 11

11.Life-CycleProfilesofEmploymentSharesbyEducationLevel 12

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12.One-YearReemploymentProbabilityofSeparatedWorkers 13

13.ImpactonProductivityandOutput:AI,AllocativeEfficiency,andAging 14

14.AIUsageandFirmProductivity/ProfitabilityClass 15

15.EstimationResultsoftheBaselineProductivity/ProfitabilityRegressions 16

16.EstimationResultsoftheExtendedProductivity/ProfitabilityRegressions 17

17.AIImpactandExposuresbyIndustrySectors 18

18.AI-DrivenDemandandKoreaSemiconductorExports 19

19.AIPreparednessIndex 19

20.Sub-CategoriesintheAIPreparednessIndex 20

References 23

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TRANSFORMINGTHEFUTURE:THEIMPACTOF

ARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCEINKOREA

1

A.Introduction

1.ArtificialIntelligence(AI)hasemergedasatransformativeforceglobally(Figure1).AIrepresentsawiderangeoftechnologiesdesignedtoenablemachinestomimichumancognitive

abilities(Cazzanigaetal.,2024).RecentadvancesinAI,notablytheemergenceofgenerativeAI

(GenAI)thatincludessystemssuchaslargelanguagemodelsandgenerativepretrained

transformers,havemarkedaleapintheabilityoftechnologytooutperformhumansinseveral

cognitiveareas(IMFWEO,April2024).AccordingtotheIBM2023survey,asignificantshareoflargeenterprises(over1,000employees)globallyhasadoptedAI,with42percentofsurveyedIT

ProfessionalsdeployingAIandanadditional40percentreportingactiveexplorationinNovember2023

2

.

Figure1.AIInnovationandAdoptionintheWorld

AIPerformanceonHumanTasks

AIAdoptioninLargeEnterprisesWorldwide

(inpercent)

(Humanbenchmark=0;initialAIperformance=-100)

Oct-19

Apr-21

Apr-22

Apr-23

Nov-23

ActivelydeployedAINotsure

ExploringtheuseofAINotcurrentlyusingAI

16%

45%

34%

12%

44%

37%

12%

46%

38%

16%

45%

34%

15%

42%

40%

Source:IBMGlobalAIAdoptionIndex,2023.

Note:LeftfigureisfromIMFWEO,April2024Chapter1,basedonanumberoftestsinwhichhumanandAIperformancewereevaluatedinfivedifferentdomains,fromhandwritingrecognitiontolanguageunderstanding.FortheGREmathematicstest,thehumanbenchmarkissetatthemedianpercentile,with–100in2017reflectingthepublicationoftheseminalpaperonGPTs.AI=artificialintelligence;GRE=GraduateRecordExamination;GPTs=generativepretrainedtransformers.RightfigureisfromtheIBMGlobalAIAdoptionIndex,2023.

2.InarapidlyagingeconomylikeKorea,AIadoptioncouldhaveaprofoundimpact.AIoffersbothopportunitiesandchallengesforagingeconomies.Aspopulationsage,economiesface

1PreparedbySooJungChang,HaminLee,SuminLee,andSamilOh(allBoK),ZexiSunandXinCindyXu(allIMF).

2TheIBM2023surveycovers2,342ITProfessionalsatlargeenterprises(withover1,000employees)fromAustralia,Canada,China,France,Germany,India,Italy,Japan,Singapore,Korea,Spain,UAE,UK,US,Brazil,Mexico,Peru,

Argentina,Chile,andColombia.Participantsmustbeemployedfull-time,workatcompanieswithmorethan1,000employees,inamanagerorhigher-levelrole,andhaveatleastsomeknowledgeabouthowIToperatesandisusedbytheircompany.SeemoredetailsinIBMglobalAIadoptionindex.

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potentiallaborshortages,slowdownsin

productivityandincreasedpressureson

healthcareandpensionsystems.AIcanplaya

pivotalroleinaddressingtheseissuesby

complementinghumanlabor,enhancing

productivity,improvinghealthcare,andproviding

innovativesolutionsforelderlycare.Meanwhile,

AIcouldalsocausejobdisplacement,reduce

workerincomes,andincreaseinequality,

especiallyfortheelderlygroupastheytendto

facemorechallengesadaptingtotechnology

changes.Asduringtheintroductionofpastgeneral-purposetechnologies,theimpactofAIoneconomicoutcomes,remainshighlyuncertain.

3.Asaleadinginnovatorandsemiconductorproducer,KoreaishighlyexposedtoAI.

Koreaiswidelyrecognizedasaleadingtechnologyinnovatorandconsistentlyrankshighonvariousglobalinnovationindexes(Figure2).Notably,Koreaishomecountrytosomeoftheworld’stop

technologycompaniesandsemiconductormanufacturers.AItechnologiesrequireadvanced

processingcapabilities,leadingtoincreaseddemandforhigh-performancecomputingchips,such

asGPUs(GraphicsProcessingUnits)andspecializedAIprocessors.Koreancompanieshavebeen

investinginthedevelopmentandproductionofthesechips,cateringtotheneedsofAIsystems.In2024H1,Koreansemiconductorexportshavesignificantlyexpanded,benefitingfromtheglobalAI

boom,accountingforabout23percentofglobalchipsexports(Figure2).WhiletheglobalAIboompresentssignificantopportunities,challengesalsoexistfortheKoreanchipindustry,includingfromintenseglobalcompetition,technologicalcomplexities,geopoliticaltensionsandtradedisputes,andtheneedforcontinuousinnovation.

Figure2.KoreaAsaTopInnovatorandChipProducer

GlobalInnovationIndex

(Rankedbyinnovationscore)

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Switzerland

Sweden

US

UK

Singapore

Finland

Netherlands

Germany

Denmark

Korea

France

China

Japan

Israel

Canada

Estonia

HongKong

Austria

Norway

Iceland

Luxembourg

Ireland

Belgium

Australia

Malta

Italy

NewZealand

Cyprus

Spain

Portugal

Sources:GlobalInnovationIndexDatabase,WIPO,2023.

4.LiteratureontheeconomicimpactofAIhasbeengrowing,butcomprehensivestudiesonKorearemainlimited.Alargebodyofexistingresearchhasfocusedonpotentiallabormarketeffectsinadvancedeconomies,includingthejobdisplacementimpact(e.g.Felten,etal.,2021and

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2023)andcomplementaryrolesofAI(Pizzinelli,etal.2023).Somestudieshavealsoassessedthe

aggregateproductivityandoutputgainsfromtheAIadoption,withawiderangeofestimates(e.g.Acemoglu,2024;BriggsandKodnani,2023;McKinsey,2023).Afewstudieshaveinvestigatedthe

relationshipbetweenAIuseandfirmperformance(e.g.OECD,2023).TherecentIMFwork

(Cazzaniga,etal.2024)hasprovidedacomprehensiveanalysisofthemultifacetedeconomicimpactofAIacrossdevelopingandadvancedeconomies.RelevantliteratureisalsogrowinginKorea,

includingtherecentworkbyHanandOh(2024)andtheKoreaDevelopmentInstitute(KDI,2023)ontheimpactofAIontheKoreanlabormarketandtheAI-relatedpoliciesandregulations(KDI,2024).ButacomprehensiveassessmentofthebroadeconomicandpolicyimplicationsofAIadoptionin

Korea-acrosslabormarket,firmproductivity,industrydevelopment,andthesocietysreadinessforAItransition-seemslacking.

5.Drawingonrecentliterature,thispaperaimstoshedlightonthemultifaceted

economicimpactofAIinKorea.Section2presentssomestylizedfactsonAIadoptioninKoreanfirmsandworkers.Section3examinesthelabormarketimpactofAI,includingcomplementaryanddisplacementeffects,basedontheKoreanlaborsurveydata.Section4assessestheimpactofAIonproductivityandoutput,includingmodel-basedestimatesandfirm-levelempiricalanalysis.

Section5analyzesKoreasreadinessforAItransitionandidentifieskeyareasforimprovementsrelativetogloballeaders.Section6concludeswithpolicyrecommendationstohelpfullyharnessAI'spotentialwhilealsosafeguardingvulnerablegroupsinKorea.

B.AIAdoption

6.KoreaisamongtheglobalfrontrunnersinAIadoption(Figure3).AccordingtotheIBM

2023survey,40percentofITProfessionalsatlargeKoreanenterprisesreportedusingAI,onparwiththesampleaverageof20surveyedcountries,whileanadditional48percentreportedactive

explorationinNovember2023,thesecondhighestamong20surveyedcountries.Only6percentofsurveyedKoreanenterprisesreportednotusingorexploringAI,comparedwiththesampleaverageof15percent,amongthelowest(togetherwithSingapore)in20surveyedcountries.KoreanworkersareactivelyusingAIatwork.AccordingtotheMicrosoft“2024WorkTrendIndex”survey,73percentofKoreanknowledgeworkersareutilizingAIatwork,slightlylessthantheglobalaverage(including31surveyedeconomies)of75percent.

3

About80percentofKoreansworkersarebringingtheirownAItoolstowork,higherthan78percentglobally.Moreover,80percentofKoreanbusinessleaders

believethattheircompaniesneedtoadoptAItostaycompetitiveand70percentindicatetheywouldnothirecandidateswithoutAIskills,alsohigherthantheglobalaverage.

3TheWorkTrendIndexsurveywasconductedbyanindependentresearchfirmamong31,000full-timeemployedorself-employedknowledgeworkers(thosewhotypicallyworkatadesk)across31markets(1000full-timeworkers

eachmarket)inearly2024.Seemoredetailsin2024WorkTrendIndexAnnualReport.

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Figure3.KoreaAtGlobalForefrontinAIAdoption

ExploringtheuseofAINotcurrentlyusingAI

(Inpercent)

Spain Australia Canada Korea Japan FranceGermanySingaporeUK

GlobalexterpriseItaly

US ChinaLATAM UAEIndia

18%

17%

12%

6%

15%

19%

21%

6%

17%

15%

23%

19%

14%

16%

10%

13%

28%

29%37%

40%

34%

26%

32%

53%37%

42%36%

33%

50%47%

58%59%

AIAdoptionInLargeEnterprisesbyCountry

ActivelydeployedAINotsure

51%

50%

48%

48%

46%

45%

44%

41%

41%

40%

38%

38%

36%

34%

32%27%

Source:IBMGlobalAIAdoptionIndex,2023.

AIatWork

(Inpercentofsurveyparticipants)

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

KoreaWorld

Wouldn'thire

someonewithout

AIskills

UseAIatworkBringownAICompanyneedsto

adoptAItostaycompetitive

EmployesLeaders

Sources:Microsoft2024WorkTrendIndex.

7.AIusageisrisinginKoreanfirms,notablyamonglarge,young,andtech-relatedfirms

(Figure4).AccordingtotheKoreanStatisticsSurveyofBusinessActivities,theshareofAIusers

amongKoreanfirmshasincreasedfrom1.4percentin2017to4.3percentin2022.Theincreaseis

broad-basedacrossdifferenttypesoffirmsbysize,age,andindustries.TheAIadoptionrateis

notablyhigheramonglarger(thosewithassetsabovethe75thpercentile),younger(thoseaged

below5years),andmoretechintensivefirms(thosewithpatentsandthoseactivelyexploringa

varietyoftechnologies).FirmsmainlyuseAIforproductdevelopment,followedbymanufacturing,sales,marketingstrategy,andorganizationalmanagement.Amongindustries,theinformationandcommunicationindustry(ICT)recordedthehighestAIadoptionrateofabout18percentin2022,

followedbyprofessionalservices.TheobservedpatternseemslargelyconsistentwithpeercountriesdocumentedinOECD(2023).

Figure4.RisingAIUsageinKoreanFirms

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Figure4.RisingAIUsageinKoreanFirms(concluded)

Note:Chartdataisauthors’calculationsfromKoreaStatistics,SurveyofBusinessActivities.Firmsizeismeasuredbyquantilesoffirmassetsize.TechnologiesincludeAI,bigdata,cloud,IoT,robots,and3-Dprinting.

8.Empiricalanalysisconfirmsthesignificantroleoffirmsize,age,andcomplementary

assetsindrivingAIadoption.SinceunconditionalcorrelationbetweenAIuseandfirm

characteristicsmaybeinfluencedbythecompositionofvariousindustrysectors,weconducta

regressionanalysistoidentifythekeyfactorsdrivingAIadoptioninfirms.Specifically,weusea

linearprobabilitymodel,withAIusage(0-1dummy)asthedependentvariable,andkeyfirm

characteristicsdiscussedearlierasexplanatoryvariables.Complementaryfactorsencompassdigitalcapabilities(measuredbythenumberofdigitaltechnologiesexcludingAI)andinnovativeness

(measuredbypatentownership,R&Dexpenditureperemployee,andintangibleassetper

employee).Wealsoaccountforyearand2-digitindustryfixedeffects.Theestimationresults,showninFigure5,indicatethatlarger,younger,tech-related,andinnovativefirmsaremorelikelytoadoptAI,evenaftercontrollingforotherfactors.Furthermore,theresultsremainconsistentacross

differentmodelspecifications.

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Figure5.EstimationResultsfortheAdoptionRegression

EstimationfortheAIAdoptionRegression

(Coefficient)

0.16

0.14

0.12

0.10

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

0.00

***

***

***

***

*

**

26-5051-7576-100

AssetPercentile

0-56-10

Age

No.of

digital

tech

Patent

Sources:KoreaStatistics,SurveyofBusinessActivities;andauthors’calculations

Note:They-axisofthegraphrepresentstheregressioncoefficient.Statisticalsignificancebasedonrobuststandarderrorsis

reportedabovebars:***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1.Yearandindustryfixedeffectscoefficientsarenotreported.

C.AIandLaborMarket

AIExposureandComplementarity

9.About50percentofjobsinKoreaareexposedtoAI.ToexaminetheimpactofAIon

jobs,itiscommontoconceptualizeoccupationsasacollectionoftasksandtoassesswhichofthesetasksmaybereplacedorenhancedbytechnologicaladvancements.Buildingontheworkof

Cazaaniga,etal.(2024),weutilizeaconceptualframeworkgroundedinFeltonetal.(2021,2023)

andPizzinelli,etal.(2023)tomeasuretheextenttowhichhumanlaborisexposedtoand

complementedbyAI.Felten,etal.(2021,2023)defines"exposure"toAIasthedegreeofoverlap

betweenAIcapabilitiesandthehumanskillsrequiredinvariousoccupations.Meanwhile,Pizzinelli,etal.(2023)developsanindexofpotentialAIcomplementarity,measuringtheextenttowhichanoccupationisshieldedfromAI-inducedjobdisplacement.Basedonthesetwocriteria,occupationscanbeclassifiedintothreecategories:"highexposure,highcomplementarity";"highexposure,lowcomplementarity";and"lowexposure."InKorea,approximately50percentofemploymentfalls

withinhigh-exposureoccupations,with24percentinhigh-complementarityand27percentin

low-complementarity(Figure6).Theproportionofhigh-exposureoccupationsinKoreaisslightlylowercomparedtosomeotheradvancedeconomies(AEs).

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Figure6.EmploymentSharesbyAIExposureandComplementarity

CountryGroupsv.s.Korea

SelectedCountriesv.s.Korea

Note:Chartdataisauthors’calculationsfromStatisticsKorea,Localarealaborforcesurvey,followingCazzanigaandothers

(2024).AEs=advancedeconomies;EMs=emergingmarketeconomies;LICs=low-incomecountries;World=allcountriesinthesample.

10.ProfessionaloccupationswilllikelybenefitfromAI,whileclericaljobsareatriskof

displacementbyAI.Koreahasasignificantportionofworkforceemployedinprofessional

occupations,whicharecharacterizedbybothhighexposureandhighcomplementaritytoAI,aswellasinclericalroles,whichexhibithighexposurebutlowcomplementarity(Figure7).Duetothis

distributionofemploymentacrossbothlow-andhigh-complementarityoccupations,Koreamay

experienceamorepolarizedimpactfromthestructuralchangesdrivenbyAI.Ononehand,thereisanincreasedriskofjobdisplacementandnegativeincomeeffectsforworkersinhigh-exposure,

low-complementarityroles.Ontheotherhand,Koreaiswell-positionedtocapitalizeonthegrowthopportunitiespresentedbyAI,thankstoitslargershareofemploymentinhigh-exposure,

high-complementarityoccupations.

Figure7.EmploymentSharesbyAIExposureandComplementaritybyOccupations

11.ExposuretoAIishigheramongwomen,moreeducatedworkers,andyounger

individuals,butthisisbalancedbyagreaterpotentialforcomplementaritywithAI(Figure8).

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Womenaremorelikelytoworkinhigh-exposureoccupationscomparedtomen.Sincethis

exposureisroughlyevenlysplitbetweenlowandhigh-complementarityjobs,womenfaceboth

greaterrisksandgreateropportunities.Intermsofeducation,higherlevelsofeducationcorrespondtoalargershareofemploymentinhigh-exposureoccupations,especiallyinroleswithhigh

complementaritytoAI.Thissuggeststhat,unliketraditionaltechnologies,AImayhaveastrongerimpactonhighlyskilledworkers.However,therisksofhigherexposureareoffsetbygreater

complementaritypotential.Lastly,youngerworkersaremorelikelytobeinhigh-exposureoccupationsthanolderworkers,largelyduetotheirhigherlevelsofeducation.

Figure8.ShareofEmploymentinHighExposureOccupationsbyDemographicGroup

ByGenderByEducationByAge

Note:Chartdataisauthors’calculationsfromStatisticsKorea,Localarealaborforcesurvey,followingCazzanigaandothers(2024).

12.AIexposuretendstobehigherforhigh-incomegroups,butpotentialgainsfromAI

alsoincreasewithincome(Figure9).Theshareofemploymentinhigh-exposureoccupationsrisesgraduallyasearningsdecilesincrease.Thiscontrastswithpreviouswavesofautomation,wheretheriskofdisplacementwasgreatestformiddle-incomeearners.However,jobswithhighpotentialforAIcomplementarityaremoreconcentratedamongupper-incomegroups.Thepositivecorrelationbetweenincomeandcomplementarityalignswithfindingsoneducationlevels,suggestingthatthebenefitsofAIarelikelytodisproportionatelyfavorhigher-incomeearners.

Figure9.OccupationExposuresandPotentialComplementaritybyIncomeDeciles

Highexposureoccupations

Potentialcomplementarity

Source:StatisticsKorea,Localarealaborforcesurvey;andauthors'calculations

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WorkerReallocationintheAI-InducedTransformation

13.HistoricalpatternsofjobtransitionsprovideinsightsintohowadaptationtoAImightunfold.Inthelongrun,workerswilladapttochangingskilldemandsandshiftingsectors,with

sometransitioningintorolesthathavehighAIcomplementarity,whileothersmaystruggletokeepup.TheprevioussectionofferedastaticsnapshotofAIexposurebasedonthecurrentemploymentlandscape.However,overtime,workersarelikelytoadjusttotheevolvinglabormarket.Historicalpatternsofjobtransitionscanprovideinsightsintohowthisadaptationmightunfold.ThissectionanalyzesmicrodatafromKorea(KoreanLabor&IncomePanelStudy)toexplorehowworkers

transitionbetweenoccupationswithvaryinglevelsofAIexposureandcomplementarity.

14.College-educatedindividualsinAI-intensivejobstendtoremaininsimilaroccupationcategorieswhenchangingroles(Figure10).Thetransitionprobabilitybetweenoccupationsshowsastablepatternwithoutsignificantchangesovertime(2009~2022).ThissuggeststhattherigidlabormarketinKoreahasremainedlargelyunchanged

4

.Additionally,31percentofthoseleaving

low-complementarityjobstransitiontoroleswithhigherAIcomplementarity,signalingapotentialpathforjobladder.EnhancingthismobilitywillbeakeytaskforKoreaasitseekstoboost

competitivenessinaneraofexpandingAItechnology.Interestingly,femaleworkersaremorelikelythanmaleworkerstotransitionintohigh-exposure,high-complementarity(HEHC)roles,regardlessoftheirpreviousjob'sexposurelevel.Incontrast,non-college-educatedworkersarepredominantlyfoundinlow-AI-exposurerolesandarelesslikelytomoveintohigh-complementaritypositions.

Figure10.OccupationalTransitionsforWorkers

4AccordingtoOECD,thestrictnessofemploymentprotectioninKorea(2.35)ishigherthantheOCEDaverage(2.27).

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Figure10.OccupationalTransitionsforWorkers(concluded)

Note:Thebarsrepresenttheaveragevaluesfrom2009to2022.

15.Throughoutthelifecycle,therewaslimitedmobilitybetweenlow-and

high-complementarityjobs(Figure11).Intheno-collegegroup,theproportionofworkersin

low-exposurejobsrisessignificantlywithage,whiletheshareofworkersinhigh-exposurejobs

declinessteadily.Similarly,inthecollege-educatedgroup,theproportionofHELC(high-exposure,low-complementarity)jobsdecreasesafterage50,withacorrespondingincreaseinlow-exposureroles.Thistrendsuggeststhatasworkersage,theyaremorelikelytotransitionintosimpler,

repetitivejobs,potentiallyduetoashifttowardmanuallaborjustbeforeorafterretirement.

Figure11.Life-CycleProfilesofEmploymentSharesbyEducationLevel

Note:Thepanelplotstheestimatedshareofemploymentbyageforeachexposurecategoryforcollege-andnon-college-educatedworkers,accordingtothecalculationsdescribedinCazzaniga,andothers(2024).

16.Olderworkersseemtobelessadaptabletojobmobility,asevidencedbytheirlowerlikelihoodoffindingreemploymentafterbeingunemployed(Figure12).Amongthosewho

wereunemployedlastyear,prime-ageworkersgenerallyhaveaneasiertimesecuringnewjobs

withinoneyear.Forexample,only35percentofolderworkerswhowerepreviouslyinHEHCrolesmanagedtofindjobsinthesamecategory,comparedto43percentofprime-ageformerHEHCworkers.Furthermore,almostallolderformerHELCworkersstruggledtofindpositionsin

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high-exposureroles,withonly25percentfindingjobsinlow-exposurecategories.Incontrast,

31percentofprime-ageformerHELCworkersfoundreemploymentinthesamecategory,and

19percentmanagedtotransitionintoHEHCroles.Thissuggeststhatolderworkersmight

encountersignificantdifficultiesinadaptingtojobreallocationdrivenbyAI.Bygender,althoughmenhavehigheroverallreemploymentrates,womenarerelativelymorelikelytomoveintoHEHCroles.

Figure12.One-YearReemploymentProbabilityofSeparatedWorkers

Note:Thebarsrepresenttheaveragevaluesfrom2010to2022.

D.AI,Productivity,andOutput

ModelEstimates:AIvs.AgingImpactonProductivityandOutput

17.Amodel-basedanalysisexploresAI’spotentialimpac