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2024YearinReview/2025Outlook
WINTER2025
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2024yearinReview
2024sawasteadyincreaseinaerospace,defenseandgovernmentservices(ADG)dealactivity,drivenbypositivelong-termfundamentalsacrossthesectorandastabilizationofglobaleconomicheadwinds
Continuedgrowthincommercialairtravel,albeitataslowerpacethaninpriorcycles
Increasedairtravelanddelaysinnew
aircraftdeliveriesdrovestrongdemandforaftermarketpartsandservices
Aircraftdeliveriesdeclinedduetoongoing
Boeingchallenges,butbacklogremainsatornearrecordhighs
GrowthinDoDandglobaldefensebudgetsinthewakeofheightenedsecuritythreatsandcontinuedglobalunrest
USdefensebudgetprioritizedcriticalnext-gencapabilitiestodeteranddefeatnear-peer
adversaries,withalikelyfinalroundoffundingforUkraine
ContinuedinvestmentinthemodernizationandtransformationofgovernmentITsystems
M&Aactivityincreasedduetomoderating
interestratesandstrongbuyerappetite,butremainedbelowthehistoricalaverage
Transactionmultiplestrendedupwhile
aerospacestocksgenerallyoutperformedanddefense/govconstocksunderperformed
2
2025outlook
ADGdealactivityisexpectedtoaccelerateacrossmostofthesector,drivenbytheTrump
administration’spro-businesspolicies,improvingeconomicconditions,andcontinuedabundanceofdebtandequitycapital
Commercialairtravelexpectedtoincreasewithbusinesstraveloffsettingsoftnessinconsumertravel
Aftermarketpartandserviceproviderswillcontinuetobenefitfromanagingfleet
Commercialaircraftdeliveriesexpectedto
increase15%asAirbusandBoeingworkoffrecordornearrecordhighbacklog
ShiftinstrategicprioritiesfortheUSundertheTrumpAdministration,aspartofan“AmericaFirst”policy
Globaldefensespendingexpectedtoriseinthefaceofnear-peerglobalthreatsandafocusonmodernizationandnext-gentechnologies
RisinguncertaintyforgovernmentservicescontractorsunderDOGE,thoughexact
ramificationsareyettoplayout
ADGM&Aactivityexpectedtostrengthenduetoincreasedeconomicconfidenceandavailabilityofcapital,aswellaspent-uppressuresonprivate
equitytodeploycapital
SpacesectorM&Aactivityexpectedtocontinueitsstrongpace,ascommercialspaceproviderslowercostsandincreaselaunchaccessibility
3
ADGM&ADealVolumeandValue
DealvolumeacrosstheADGindustryincreased13%in2024butremainedbelowhistoricalaverages
616
525
510497
Mediantransactionsperyear(2015-2024):461
476
446
432
421
403
414
409
399
358
$30bn
MegaDeals
$8bn
$37bn
AllOtherDealsTransactions
$11bn$61bn
$98bn$63bn
$121bn
$19bn
$9bn
Acquirer:
$9bn
$85bn$52bn
$131bn
$112bn
Target:
$7bn
$6bn
$75bn
$18bn
$4bn
$30bn
$63bn
$46bn
$30bn
$29bn
$29bn
2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024
AggregateDealValue(MinusLargestDeal)LargestDealValue
10-yearMedianTransactionVolumeAggregateDealVolumes(AllDeals)
4
Source:DACISMergers&Acquisitions;transactionvalueanddealcountasof12/31/2024;allvaluesinUSD$
ADGM&AValuationandBuyerTrends
M&ATransactionMultiplesIncreasedin2024totheHighestLevelSince2021
?Valuationmultiplesforcompletedtransactionsincreasedfrom10.3xin2023to13.1xin2024duetoadeclineininterestrates,anincreaseintheavailabilityofdebtfinancingandfavorablesupplyanddemanddynamics
?Privateequityandprivate-equity-backedstrategicbuyersrepresentedthemajority(53%)ofcompletedtransactionsasstrategicbuyersremainedsomewhatcautiousandprivateequityfirmsheldrecordcapitalreservesthatneededtobedeployed
AverageEV/EBITDAMultiplebyQuarter(1)
25.0x
20.0x
15.0x
10.0x
5.0x
0.0x
13.5x16.4x12.6x10.3x13.1x
18.5x
19.1x
16.5x
15.6x
15.8x
13.8x
13.4x
14.8x13.6x13.8x
13.0x10.9x
12.2x
12.4x
11.2x
11.8x
10.9x
9.8x
9.1x
9.1x
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4
20202021202220232024
(1)Fordealswithdisclosedvalue
Source:DACISMergers&Acquisitions;CapitalIQ
M&AActivitybyBuyerType
49%
47%
52%
52%
50%
16%
21%
19%
20%
23%
35%
29%
28%
32%
27%
20202021202220232024
Private-Equity-BackedStrategicFinancialStrategic
5
2024M&AActivitybySubsector
Aerospace,DefenseandGovernmentServicesEachWitnessedanUptickinM&Ain2024
?TheGovernmentServicessectorexperienceda26%increaseinM&Adealactivityin2024drivenbyaninfluxofprivateequitymoneyintothesegment,ownerdesirestoexitpriortoanewadministration,andpotentialpositioningaheadofnewSmallBusinessAdministration(SBA)rulesthattakeeffectin2026
?Aerospacesawamoremodest8%increaseinactivityin2024,whileDefensewasrelativelyflat
ADGDealVolumebySubsector
182
172
58
132
130
56
126
130
116
119
108
111
105
99
44
99
50
39
91
91
90
52
33
41
83
85
46
82
24
36
65
47
72
21
39
37
37
32
39
23
23
28
32
38
45
26
25
42
37
15
27
30
27
23
29
38
22
30
31
70
28
64
60
52
59
44
50
43
39
38
33
41
32
31
30
24
2423
31
20
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4
20202021202220232024
AerospaceDefenseGovernment
Source:DACISMergers&Acquisitions
2024ADGDealsbySubsector
GovernmentServices
&IT
157
Aerospace
Components/
Systems
68
GovernmentServices(40%)
Aerostructures/
Machining/Metals
29
AerospaceMRO&Distribution
23
Aerospace(33%)
AviationLeasing&
Services
13
Defense
Systems
Defense
Electronics/
Communications
37
48
Engineering&Construction
5
Navy/Maritime
7
Satellite/SpaceSystems
16
6
Defense
(27%)
ADGPublicCompanyTradingPerformance
$inmillions,asofJanuary31,2025
51.0%
MedianStatistics2024EOPERATINGPERFORMANCEENTERPRISEVALUEASAMULTIPLEOF
Market
Sector
%of52-WeekHigh
Equity
Value
Enterprise
Value
Revenue
EBITDA
RevenueGrowth
EBITDA
Growth
EBITDA
Margin
NetDebt/EBITDA
2024EEBITDA
2025PEBITDA
2024E
Revenue
2025PRevenue
DefensePrimes/LargeCapDefense81.1%$70,535$84,231$47,164$5,7145.5%14.9%12.1%2.0x13.2x12.5x2.0x1.9x
MidCapDefense79.8%5,0415,02681010559.8%10.2%12.9%2.5x40.0x30.5x3.7x3.5x
EuropeanDefense84.5%25,70930,52618,5452,53310.1%24.5%13.7%0.5x11.5x10.3x1.7x1.6x
GovtServices69.3%5,2939,6737,7428436.4%17.7%10.9%1.7x10.9x10.6x1.4x1.3x
E&Cs80.2%9,86410,7007,6326187.7%28.4%8.1%1.3x14.3x13.4x1.4x1.3x
Satellite/Space80.0%1,2351,807229727.2%(32.4%)3.0%2.4x13.6x9.4x3.5x3.0x
DiversifiedAerospace/Industrial90.3%14,19316,4594,5661,0264.4%11.4%22.5%1.3x20.2x18.6x4.5x4.3x
AerospaceMetals82.8%8,6349,9624,2597067.6%64.8%16.6%1.1x13.8x12.0x2.3x2.1x
Aerostructures85.2%9251,194970973.7%33.2%10.0%2.0x10.1x9.2x1.4x1.1x
AviationLeasingandServices88.3%5,14624,8472,7242,5158.1%68.6%92.3%6.5x9.9x8.9xNANA
CommercialOEAirframes88.9%17,66715,77938,9301,3649.4%40.8%3.5%2.5x12.0x10.4x1.8x1.7x
AerospaceEngineandEngineSystems93.4%83,79184,24922,2024,3279.7%13.1%19.5%0.4x17.3x15.5x3.0x2.8x
AerospaceMROandDistribution/Logistics88.8%2,3903,3932,52527814.0%26.3%11.0%2.4x18.6x14.2x1.9x1.8x
Test&Measurement87.0%25,57626,18810,9822,9930.6%7.0%27.3%0.6x12.4x11.6x2.2x2.1x
Median%ChangeByIndex=Last12Months
DefensePrimes&EuropeanDefense
GovtServices&E&Cs
Satellite/
Space
CommercialAerospace
Test&
Measurement
S&P
500
Dow
47.5%
39.7%
24.9%
24.7%
23.0%
18.9%
16.9%
16.8%
16.3%
11.4%
1.7%
1.7%
49.3%
(1.0%)(0.4%)
DefensePrimes/
LargeCapDefense
MidCap
Defense
European
Defense
Government
Services
Engineering&
Construction
Satellite/
Space
DiversifiedAerospace/
Industrial
Aerospace
Metals
Aerostructures
AviationLeasing
andServices
Commercial
OEAirframes
AerospaceEngine
andEngineSystems
AerospaceMROand
Distribution/Logistics
Test&
Measurement
S&P500
DowJones
IndustrialAverage
Source:CapitalIQ,EquityResearchAnalysts
7
DefensePrimes/LargeCapDefense:BA,GD,HII,LHX,LMT,NOC,RTX;MidCapDefense:AVAV,CMTL,KTOS,DRS,MRCY;EuropeanDefense:BA,CHG,LDO,QQ,SAF,HO;GovernmentServices:AMTM,BAH,CACI,CGI,ICF,LDOS,MMS,SAIC,VVX;E&Cs:ACM,BWXT,FLR,J,KBR,PSN,TTEK;Satellite/Space:IRDM,VSAT,BKSY,LUNR,M0NY,RDW,RKLB,SPIR,SPCE;DiversifiedAerospace/Industrial:AME,CR,CW,ESE,GE,HEI,HON,LOAR,MOG.A,PH,TDY,TXT,TKR,TDG,WWD;AerospaceMetals:AA,ATI,CRS,USAP;Aerostructures:CVU,DCO,FACC,HRX,HXL,MAL,SNR,SPR,TGI;AviationLeasingandServices:AER,AL,WLFC:CommercialOEAirframes:AIR,BA,BBD.B,AM,ERJ;AerospaceEngineandEngineSystems:GE,MTX,RR,SAF;AerospaceMROandDistributionlLogistics:AIR,B,S59,S63,SARO,VSEC;Test&
Measurement:APH,AME,EMR,6861,MEI,ST,7701,SXS,TEL,TTG
CommercialAerospaceHighlights
AirTravelContinuestoGrow,AlbeitataSlowerPace
?Commercialairtravelhascontinueditssteadyclimbupward,withseasonallyadjustedrevenuepassengermiles(RPM)reaching94.7billioninNovember2024,whichmarksa2.3%increaseover
November2023andan11.1%increaseoverNovember2022
?Duringthe2024holidayseason,thenumberoftravelerspassing
throughTSAcheckpointsincreasedroughly7%relativetothesameperiodlastyear
?Whileairtravelhascontinuedtorise,ithasdonesoataslowerpaceaspost-COVIDrevengespendinghascometoanend,andhigher
interestratesandinflationweighonconsumers’propensitytospend
?In2025,commercialairtravelisexpectedtocontinuetorise,albeitat
aslowerpacethanrecentyears,asaresurgenceinbusinesstravelisexpectedtooffsetflatordecliningconsumerdemand
?Onaglobalbasis,theInternationalAirTransportAssociation(IATA)isprojectingthenumberofairtravelerstoincrease6.7%in2025
AirRevenuePassengerMiles(1)
120
Seasonallyadjustedmilesinbillions
100
80
60
40
20
0
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-24
Apr-24
Jul-24
Oct-24
TSACheckpointTravelers(2)
Rolling12-monthcheckpointtravelersinmillions
1,000
800
600
400
200
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-24
Apr-24
Jul-24
Oct-24
0
(1)FederalReserveEconomicData(FRED)EconomicData–SeasonallyAdjustedAirRevenuePassengerMiles;December2024datanotavailableasofthedateofthisreport
(2)–TSACheckpointTravelNumbers
9
Source:BoeingandAirbus,DSMForecastInternational10
CommercialAerospaceHighlights
AircraftDeliveriesDeclinedin2024DuetoBoeing’sChallengesbutAreExpectedtoReboundin2025
?Totalcommercialaircraftdeliveriesdeclined11%in2024duetoBoeing’scontinuedstruggles
?Airbusdeliveriesincreasedandareapproachingpre-COVIDlevels
whileBoeingsignificantlylagsbehindduetocontinuedproductionissueswiththe737MAXand787,andrecentlaborunrest
?In2025,deliveriesareprojectedtoincreaseatafasterpace,withAirbusforecastinga16%increaseandBoeingforecastinga14%increase,whichwillbeaboostfortiersuppliers
?ForAirbus,netaircraftordersslightlyoutpaceddeliveriesin2024,
resultinginanindustryrecordbacklogof8,658commercialaircraftattheendof2024
?Boeing’sordersplummetedduetoitscontinuedstruggles,from1,314netordersaftercancellationsandconversionsin2023to377in2024,resultinginaslightdeclineinbacklog
CommercialAircraftDeliveries
Airbus
Boeing
806
397
763
748
762
528
380
348
480
340
157
889
800
766
863
732
718
661
635
611
688
566
2015A2016A2017A2018A2019A2020A2021A2022A2023A2024A2025P
CommercialAircraftinBacklog
AirbusBoeing
5,595
5,626
5,590
5,970
6,057
5,821
5,901
4,407
4,546
4,840
8,658
7,577
7,482
8,598
7,265
7,164
7,082
6,874
6,787
7,239
Dec-15Dec-16Dec-17Dec-18Dec-19Dec-20Dec-21Dec-22Dec-23Dec-24
CommercialAerospaceHighlights
HeightenedAirTravelandAgingFleetsDrivingStrongDemandforMROServicesandAftermarketParts
?Aresurgenceincommercialairtravelhasledtoanincreaseinaircraftinserviceandflighthours,whichisdrivingrecorddemandfor
maintenance,repair,andoverhaul(MRO)servicesandparts
?AdelayinnewaircraftdeliveriesbyAirbusandBoeinghasfurther
heighteneddemand,asfleetsareagingandolderaircraftrequiremoreshopvisits
?MROshopshavestruggledtomeetdemandduetolaborandpartshortages,whichhaslengthenedturnaroundtimes
?Turnaroundtimesareupover35%forlegacyenginesandover150%fornew-generationenginescomparedtopre-pandemiclevels(1)
?MROdemandisexpectedtoremainstrongin2025andatelevated
levelsthroughtheendofthedecade,whilepartsuppliersareexpectedtoexperiencecontinuedgrowth,althoughataslowerpaceasan
increaseinpartsavailabilitywilllimitgrowth
AerospaceAftermarketIndexedRevenue(2)
126
118118
111
112
108
100
99
96
94
8988
86
81
75
68
64
61
5456
(1)Source:AviationWeek
(2)Source:Publicfilings;includesaerospaceandaftermarketsalesforAAR,Barnes,DeutscheLufthansaandVSE,ascomparedtoQ4’19results;normalizedforacquisitions11
12
Source:DACISMergers&Acquisitions;CapitalIQ
CommercialAerospace:M&AHighlights
450
AerospaceM&ADealVolumeIncreasedin2024butRemainedWellBelow2021and2022Levels
?Aerospacedealactivitywasup8%in2024to133transactions,drivenprimarilybyariseindealsinvolvingcompaniesservingtheaerospaceaftermarket(i.e.,MROprovidersanddistributors)
350
?M&AactivityinvolvingaerospacecomponentandsystemmanufacturersdeclinedforthethirdstraightyearasthosebusinesseshavefacedheadwindsduetoBoeing’sproductionissues
CommercialAerospaceM&ADealVolumebySubsector
213
190
47
37
149
133
123
15
27
24
61
23
49
40
29
103
92
74
68
78
20202021202220232024
AerospaceComponents/SystemsAerostructures/Machining/Metals
AviationLeasing&ServicesAerospaceMRO&Distribution
CommercialAerospaceM&AActivitybyBuyerType
30%
40%
44%
45%
45%
29%
14%
18%
21%
26%
46%
38%
41%
34%
29%
20202021202220232024
Private-Equity-BackedStrategicFinancialStrategic
2024KeyCommercialAerospaceTransactions
hasagreedtoacquire
hasagreedtoacquire
hasacquired
hasacquired
hasacquired
Date:Pending
EV:$3,104M
EV/EBITDA:6.2x
AircraftLeasingand
AirCargo
Transportation
Services
Date:Pending
EV:$8,382M
EV/EBITDA:ND
Date:December2024
EV:$200M
EV/EBITDA:10.0x
Aftermarket
AerospaceEngine
ComponentsDistribution
Date:December2024
EV:ND
EV/EBITDA:ND
PrecisionMachined
Componentsand
Date:February2025
EV:$1,000M
EV/EBITDA:13.6x
Aerostructures
Manufacturingfor
Commercial,DefenseandRegionalAircraft
AircraftLandingGearand
ManufacturingandRepair
ActuationSystems
Assemblies
hasacquired
hasacquired
hasacquired
hasacquired
hasacquired
Date:October2024
EV:$3,547M
EV/EBITDA:9.7x
Aerospaceand
IndustrialParts
Manufacturingand
Repair
PRODUCTSUPPORTGROUPDate:March2024
EV:$725M
EV/EBITDA:14.5x
ComponentMRO
Services
Date:April2024
EV:$1,884M
EV/EBITDA:17.1x
HighPrecisionand
Engineered
Componentsand
Date:September2024
EV:ND
EV/EBITDA:ND
Date:August2024
EV:$170M
EV/EBITDA:ND
AuxiliaryPower
UnitandAvionics
MROServices
TurbineEngineand
AccessoryMROServices
Structures
Daterepresentsclosedate
Source:CapitalIQ,DACISMergers&Acquisitions;Mergermarket13
Source:CapitalIQ;asofDecember31,2024
14
CommercialAerospace:PublicTradingPerformance
AerospaceStocksExperiencedMixedResultsin2024
?Aerospacemetals(notablyAlcoaandATI)andaero-enginemanufacturersoutperformedthemarket,whilecommercialOEMs(notablyBoeing)andaerostructuresmanufacturers(notablyHexcelandSenior)underperformed
DiversifiedAerospace/Industrial
AerospaceMetals
Aerostructures
AviationLeasingandServices
CommercialOEAirframes
AerospaceEngineandEngineSystems
AerospaceMROandDistribution/Logistics
S&P500
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
ElectionDay
48%
38%
33%
24%
22%
3%
2%
(12%)
Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24
DefenseandSpaceHighlights
DoDandNATO/AlliedDefenseBudgetsIncreasingintheFaceofHeightenedSecurityThreats
?TheFY25NationalDefenseAuthorizationAct(NDAA),signedintolawby
PresidentBideninDecember2024,representedaroughly1.0%increase
overFY24,withfundingtodeterChinaandRussia,supportNATOalliesandUkraine,andacceleratetechnicaldevelopmentofkeynext-gensystems
suchasartificialintelligence(AI),cyber,autonomy,andspacesystems(1)
?WhiletheTrumpadministrationissendingmixedmessagesregarding
futurespendingincreases,theadministrationisexpectedtocontinueto
prioritizethemodernizationofmilitarysystems,whileeliminatingvirtuallyallfundingassociatedwiththeUkraineconflictaspartofabroader“America
First”policy
?Concurrently,itisexpectedtheTrumpadministrationwillpressNATOmemberstoincreasedefensespendingto~5%ofGDP
?Currently,justovertwo-thirdsofNATOmembers(23of32)havefulfilledtheir2%commitment,upfromjust10countriesin2023(2)
(1)Source:OfficeoftheUnderSecretaryofDefense;DefenseNews;U.S.DoD;historicalDoDbudgetinclusiveofOCOandemergencyappropriation
(2)SourceNATO;chartincludesthe10largestNATOcountriesbasedonGDP
DoD-EnactedBudgetFunding(1)
$inbillions
BaseBudget
OCO/OtherSupplementals
$900
$852
$777
$35
$36
$58
$705
$70
$688
$72
$723
$671
$90
$71
$580$606
$59$83
$816
$842$850
$742
$635
$616
$600
$633
$521$523
$100
FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25
2024NATODefenseSpendingasPercentageofGDP(2)
4.12%
3.37%
2.33%
2.12%2.09%2.06%
1.85%
1.49%1.37%1.28%
PolandUSAUKGermanyTurkeyFranceNetherlandsItalyCanadaSpain
16
Source:DACISMergers&Acquisitions;CapitalIQ17
DefenseandSpace:M&AHighlights
DefenseM&ADealVolumeExperiencedModestGrowthfortheSecondConsecutiveYear
?Defensedealactivityincreasedslightlyin2024,drivenbyacontinuedheightenedthreatenvironmentandexpectationsofincreaseddefensespendingglobally
?Strategicscontinuedtorepresentthevastmajorityofbuyers,leveragingstrongbalancesheetsinahighinterestrateenvironment
DefenseM&ADealVolumebySubsector
193
32
123
108
106
23
102
61
26
16
20
44
33
46
48
89
45
37
46
33
202020212022
DefenseElectronics/CommunicationsNavy/Maritime
20232024
DefenseSystems
Satellite/SpaceSystems
DefenseM&AActivitybyBuyerType
61%54%
69%
67%
69%
13%
11%
16%
17%
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