Chapter11Market-ClearingModelsoftheBusinessCycleChapter11Market-ClearingModeStudyThreeMarket-ClearingBusinessCycleModelsRealBusinessCycleModelSegmentedMarketsModelKeynesianCoordinationFailureModel2Copyright?2008PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.StudyThreeMarket-ClearingBuRealBusinessCycleModelBusinesscyclesarecausedbyfluctuationsintotalfactorproductivity.Thereisnoroleforthegovernmentinsmoothingbusinesscycles–cyclesarejustoptimalresponsestothetechnologyshocks.Modelfitsthedatawell.3Copyright?2008PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.RealBusinessCycleModelBusin【五上】數學-5【五上】數學-5Figure11.3AverageLaborProductivitywithTotalFactorProductivityShocks6Copyright?2008PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.Figure11.3AverageLaborProTable11.1DataVersusPredictionsoftheRealBusinessCycleModelwithProductivityShocks7Copyright?2008PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.Table11.1DataVersusPredicFigure11.4ProcyclicalMoneySupplyintheRealBusinessCycleModelwithEndogenousMoney8Copyright?2008PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.Figure11.4ProcyclicalMoneyEquation11.1Cobb-Douglasproductionfunction,withlaborshareofoutputof64%:9Copyright?2008PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.Equation11.1Cobb-DouglasprodSegmentedMarketsModelBusinesscyclescanbecausedinthismodelbyunanticipatedshockstothemoneysupply.Modelexhibitsaliquidityeffect–theinterestratefallsintheshortrunwhenthemoneysupplyincreases.Monetarypolicycanonlyimprovethefunctioningoftheeconomyifthecentralbankhasaninformationaladvantageovertheprivatesector.Fittothedataisnotasgoodaswiththerealbusinesscyclemodel.10Copyright?2008PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.SegmentedMarketsModelBusinesFigure11.5EffectsofanUnanticipatedIncreaseintheMoneySupplyintheSegmentedMarketsModel11Copyright?2008PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.Figure11.5EffectsofanUnaTable11.2DataVersusPredictionsoftheSegmentedMarketsModelwithMonetaryShocks12Copyright?2008PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.Table11.2DataVersusPredicFigure11.6AWelfare-ImprovingRoleforActiveMonetaryPolicy13Copyright?2008PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.Figure11.6AWelfare-ImproviFigure11.7PercentageDeviationsfromTrendinMoneySupplyandGDP14Copyright?2008PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.Figure11.7PercentageDeviatFigure11.8RealandNominalInterestRates15Copyright?2008PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.Figure11.8RealandNominalFigure11.9RelativePriceofEnergy16Copyright?2008PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.Figure11.9RelativePriceofKeynesianCoordinationFailureModelStrategiccomplementaritiesimplythattheaggregateproductionfunctionhasincreasingreturnstoscale,andthelabordemandfunctioncanbeupwardsloping.Therecanbemultipleequilibria.Inanexample,themodelfitsthedataaswellastherealbusinesscyclemodel.GDPfluctuatesinthemodelbecauseofself-fulfillingwavesofoptimismandpessimism.17Copyright?2008PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.KeynesianCoordinationFailureFigure11.10AProductionFunctionwithIncreasingReturnstoScale18Copyright?2008PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.Figure11.10AProductionFunFigure11.11AggregateLaborDemandwithSufficientIncreasingReturnstoScale19Copyright?2008PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.Figure11.11AggregateLaborFigure11.12TheLaborMarketintheCoordinationFailureModel20Copyright?2008PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.Figure11.12TheLaborMarketFigure11.13TheOutputSupplyCurveintheCoordinationFailureModel21Copyright?2008PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.Figure11.13TheOutputSupplFigure11.14MultipleEquilibriaintheCoordinationFailureModel22Copyright?2008PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.Figure11.14MultipleEquilibTable11.3DataVersusPredictionsoftheCoordinationFailureModel23Copyright?2008PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.Table11.3DataVersusPredicFigure11.15AverageLaborProductivityintheKeynesianCoordinationFailureModel24Copyright?2008PearsonAddison-Wesley.Allrightsreserved.Figure11.15AverageLaborPrFigure11.16ProcyclicalMoneySupplyintheCoordinationFailureModel25Copyright?2008