Demographershaveknownforsometimethatthenumberofpeopleinwouldsurpassthenumberin ,thetwomostpopulouscountriesintheworld.Buttheydidnotanticipatethatthechangewouldhappensoquickly.TheUnitedNationsreportedonWednesdaythat’spopulationwillprobably ’sby2022,not2028,astheorganizationhadforecastjusttwoyearsago.Inits2015revisionreport,thepopulationdivisionoftheUnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairssaid ’spopulationwasnow1.38billion,comparedwith1.31billionin.Butinsevenyears,thepopulationsofbothareexpectedtoreach1.4billion.Thereafter,thereportsaid,’spopulationwillgrowfordecades,to1.5billionin2030and1.7billionin2050,while ’sisexpectedtoremainfairlyconstantuntilthe2030s,whenitisexpectedtoslightlydecrease.Overall,thereportsaid,theworld’scurrentpopulationof7.3billionisexpectedtoreach9.7billionby2050,slightlymorethanthe9.6billionforecasttwoyearsago.Thenumbercouldreach11.2billionbytheendofthecentury.Muchoftheoverallincreasebetweennowand2050isexpectedinhigh-countries,mainlyinAfrica,orincountrieswithlargepopulations,thereportHalfthegrowthisexpectedtobeconcentratedinjustninecountries:,Nigeria,Pakistan,theDemocraticRepublicofCongo,Ethiopia,Tanzania,theUnitedStates,IndonesiaandUganda.Bycontrast,thepopulationsof48countriesareexpectedtodeclineinthatperiod,mainlyinEurope,becauseofaslowdowninfertilityratesthatstarteddecadesago.Thereportsaidseveralcountriesfacedapopulationdeclineofmorethan15percentby2050,includingBosniaandHerzeina,Bulgaria,Croatia,Hungary,Japan,Latvia,Lithuania,Moldova,Romania,Serbiaand Amongthe10largestcountriesbypopulation,oneisinAfrica(Nigeria),fivearein ,,IndonesiaandPakistan),twoareinLatinAmerica(BrazilandMexico)oneisinNorthAmerica(theUnitedStates),andoneisinEurope(Russia).Amongthese,Nigeria’spopulation,currentlyrankedseventhlargest,isgrowingthefastest,anditisexpectedtosurpassthepopulationoftheUnitedStatesby2050,whichwouldmakeittheworld’sthirdmostpopulouscountry.Thepopulationrevisionreportalsoincludedsomenotablefindingsonaging.Thenumberofpeople80orolderisprojectedtomorethantripleby2050andincreasemorethansevenfoldby2100,thereportsaid.In2015,28percentofallpeople80andolderlivedinEurope,butthatshareisexpectedtodeclineto16percentin2050andto9percentby2100,asthepopulationsofotherareasincreaseinsizeandgrowolder.Therevisionreportconfirmedthatsubstantialimprovementsinlifeexpectancyhavebeenmadeinrecentyears.Globally,lifeexpectancyhasrisento68yearsformenand73yearsforwomenin2010-15,from65yearsformenand69yearsforwomenin2000-05.Thehighestlevelsoflifeexpectancyin2010-15areinHongKong,followedbyJapan,Italy,Switzerland,Singapore,Iceland,Spain,AustraliaandIsrael.Globally,thereportsaid,lifeexpectancyisprojectedtoriseto77yearsin2045-50and83yearsin2095-2100,from70yearsin2010-15.ThepopulationestimatesandprojectionsfromtheUnitedNationsareanimportantbenarkforglobaltrends,aswellasforhelprovidedemographicdatatocalculatemanyotherimportantindicators,includinghealthdata,aroundtheworld.high-fertilityrevisionn.校 beprojectedto預 arkn.標 demographicadj.人口方面預測的2028年。達到17億，而口數量則有望保持平穩，并且從2030年始小幅下降。量有望下滑。報告稱，到2050年，部分國家15%以上的人口跌幅，其中包括口數量將增長三倍以上，到年將增長七倍以上。年，80歲及以上的人群中有28％居住在歐洲，但隨著其他地區人口數量的增長及化的加重，預計到年和年，居住在歐洲的80歲及以上的人群占比將分別下降至16％和9％。2010—2015，是人類平均最長的地區，緊隨其后的是、意大利、瑞 年的歲延長 第9篇-交通類（選自《時代》2011年5月OnApril5,LucianoDucci,themayorofCuritiba,Brazil,boardedtheworld’slargesturbanbusonitsinauguralrideacrosstown,markingyetanothercoupforthecity’stransportationsystem.Poweredexclusivelybybiofuels(madefromsoybeans),the92-ft.-long(28m)megabuscancarry250passengersatatimeandmakesjustfourstopsalonga6-(10km)route.Withaprojectedfleetof24vehicles,thesystemwillferryanaverageof25,000peopleperday.Curitibamaybetheoriginalsmartcity.Intheearly1960s,itwasdbysprawlandcongestion.ArchitectJaimeLernerrespondedwiththeCuritibamastern,anurban-designstrategywhosecenterpiecewasanaffordableandefficienttransportationsystem.Adoptedin1968,themasternbecamethecornerstoneofCuritiba’sdesign—andLernerwentonto emayor.Oneofthehallmarksofthecityisitspublic-privatepartnerships.Inthe1970s,forexample,Curitibawasfastapproaching1millionresidents,thetypicalthresholdforinstallingasubwaysystem.However,thepricetagwasanunaffordable$300million.Lernerpresentedtheprivatesectorwithauniquesolution:withthe ernment,buildarapidbussystemthatwouldhavealltheamenitiesofasubway—speed,reliability,affordabilityandfrequency.Companieswouldinvestinthefleetofbuses,andtheernmentwouldcharttheitineraries.Theresult—thebusrapidtransit(BRT)network—becametheworld’sfirstmetronizedbussystem.Morethan2.3millionpeopleperdaynowtravelonit,andCuritibahasthelowestlevelofatmosphericpollutioninAtleast83citiesworldwidehavecopiedCuritiba’sBRTsystem.Asruralpopulationsrushintourbanareas,thechallengesthousandsofcitiesfacearecongestionandtraffic.In alone,350millionpeoplewillmigratefromvillagestocitiesby2030.InGuangzhou,oneofthefastest-growingcitiesin ,theBRTsystemcarries800,000passengersadayandhascuttheaveragecommutingtimeinhalf.MajorcitiesintheU.S.arealsopayingattention.OnApril15theChicagoTransitAuthorityapproveda$1.6milliongranttoexploreintroducingaBRTsystemalongWesternAvenue.OnecanonlyhopethatNewYorkCitywillmakeasimilarmove.TheWorld’sSmartestCuritiba’sbusysystemactuallyresemblesasubway,withexclusivetransitlanes,prepaid-ticketcountersandbussensorsthatcommunicatewithsmarttrafficlights,allowingbusestomovealongatcontinuouss