




版權說明:本文檔由用戶提供并上傳,收益歸屬內容提供方,若內容存在侵權,請進行舉報或認領
文檔簡介
Acknowledgements
ThisstudywaspreparedbytheRenewableEnergyDivisionintheDirectorateof
EnergyMarketsandSecurity.ItwasdesignedanddirectedbyHeymiBahar,
SeniorAnalyst.
TheleadauthorsofthereportwereHeymiBahar(electricity)andJeremy
Moorhouse(biofuels).Thereportbenefitedfromanalysisandinputfrommultiple
colleagues:YasminaAbdelilah,PiotrBojek,FrangoisBriens,ChenluCheng,
TrevorCriswell,KazuhiroKurumiandGreciaRodriguezJimenez(also
responsiblefordatamanagement).
PaoloFrankl,HeadoftheRenewableEnergyDivision,providedstrategic
guidanceandinputtothiswork.Valuablecommentsandfeedbackwereprovided
byKeisukeSadamori,DirectorofEnergyMarketsandSecurityDirectorate.
ThanksgototheIEACommunicationandDigitalOffice(CDO)fortheirhelpin
producingthereportandwebsitematerials,particularlytoJadMouawad,Headof
CDO,andtoJonCuster,AstridDumond,MerveErdil,ChristopherGully,Jethro
Mullen,IsabelleNonain-Semelin,JuliePuech,RobertStone,GregoryViscusiand
ThereseWalsh.
KristineDouaudcarriededitorialresponsibility.
U
S6
J0
3
-s
Highlights
?In2020,annualrenewablecapacityadditionsincreased45%toalmost280GW-
thehighestyear-onyearincreasesince1999.
?Exceptionallyhighcapacityadditionsbecomethe“newnormal"in2021and2022,
withrenewablesaccountingfor90%ofnewpowercapacityexpansionglobally.
?SolarPVdevelopmentwillcontinuetobreakrecords,withannualadditions
reaching162GWby2022-almost50%higherthanthepre-pandemiclevelof
2019.
?Globalwindcapacityadditionsincreasedmorethan90%in2020toreach
114GW.Whilethepaceofannualmarketgrowthslowsin2021and2022,itisstill
50%higherthanthe2017-2019average.
?AnnualgrowthinthePeople'sRepublicofChina's(hereafter,,tChinan)renewables
marketwilldeceleratefollowingtheexceptionalexpansionthatresultedfrom
developersrushingtocompleteprojectsbeforesubsidyphase-outs.However,the
restoftheworldcompensatesforChina'sslowdownandmaintainsthepaceof
renewablesexpansion.
?Europe'scapacitygrowthacceleratesthankstofurtherpolicysupportanda
boomingcorporatePPAmarketasPVcostscontinuetodecline.
?TheupdatedforecastfortheUnitedStatesismoreoptimisticbecauseoffederal
taxcreditextensions.NewUSemissionsreductiontargetsandtheinfrastructure
bill,ifpassed,willboostrenewablesexpansionafter2022(beyondthetimeframe
ofthisforecastupdate).
PAGE|4
?AlthoughIndia'scapacityadditionsin2020declinedalmostover50%from2019,
thecountryisexpectedtosetnewrecordsforrenewablesexpansionin2021and
2022asdelayedprojectsfrompreviouscompetitiveauctionsarecommissioned.
However,thecurrent(April2021)surgeinCovid-19caseshascreatedshort-term
forecastuncertaintyforthisyear.
?Transportbiofuelproductionisexpectedtoreboundto2019volumesin2021,after
havingfallen8%in2020.Productionisalsoforecasttoexpandanother7%in
2022.
?MainlydrivenbycleanfuelstandardsandpolicysupportintheUS,global
HydrotreatedVegetalOil(HVO)productioncapacityisexpectedtonearlydouble
inthenexttwoyears,significantlyexpandingthecapabilityofproducingbiofuels
fromwasteandresiduefeedstocks.
PAGE|5
5
Renewableelectricity
Aquicklookbackat2020
Policydeadlinesinkeymarketspropelledglobal
renewablecapacityadditionstoalmost280GWin2020,
thehighestyear-on-yearincreaseinthelasttwodecades
Despitepandemic-inducedsupplychainchallengesandconstructiondelays,
renewablecapacityadditionsin2020expandedbymorethan45%from2019,and
brokeanotherrecord.Anexceptional90%riseinglobalwindcapacityadditions
ledtheexpansion.Alsounderpinningthisrecordgrowthwasthe23%expansion
ofnewsolarPVinstallationstoalmost135GWin2020.
PolicydeadlinesinChina,theUnitedStatesandVietNamspurredan
unprecedentedboominrenewablecapacityadditionsin2020.Chinaalonewas
responsibleforover80%oftheincreaseinannualinstallationsfrom2019to2020,
asonshorewindandsolarPVprojectscontractedunderChina'sformerFIT
scheme,andthoseawardedinpreviouscentralorprovincialcompetitiveauctions,
hadtobeconnectedtothegridbytheendof2020.IntheUnitedStates,wind
powerdevelopersrushedtocompletetheirprojectsbeforeexpirationofthe
productiontaxcredit(PTC),althoughitwasextendedforanotheryear,in
December2020.InVietNam,phaseoutoftheFITforsolarPVprojectsledtoan
unprecedentedrushincommercialandresidentialinstallations.
Renewablecapacityadditionchangesfrom2019to2020
§
TotalDecreaseIncreaseTotal
□Wind□SolarPV■Hydropower
IEA.Allrightsreserved.
PAGE|6
Therushtocommissionprojectspriortopolicydeadlinesinthesecountriestook
placeinthelastquarter(Q4)of2020,especiallyinDecember.Infact,developers
connectedalmost150GWofnewrenewablecapacityinQ4of2020-morethan
doublethenumberofgigawattscommissionedinQ4of2019andexceedingthe
amountinstalledinthefirstthree-quartersof2020.Overall,IEAquarterly
deploymentestimatesindicatethattheslowdowninrenewablecapacityadditions
waslimitedtoQ12020only,mainlyinChina,whileconstructionactivitycontinued
stronglyintherestoftheworlddespitecontinuousmovementrestrictionsand
supplychaindelays.TheDecembersurgeinnewinstallationsalsoindicatesthat
solarandwindconstructionsupplychainswereabletofurnishrecordnumbersof
projectsinChina,theUnitedStates,VietNamandvariousEuropeancountries.
Quarterlyrenewablecapacityadditions,2019-2020
□Restofworld
■APAC
■ASEAN
□India
■LatinAmerica
□Europe
■UnitedStates
□China
IEA.Allrightsreserved.
Notes:Quarterlyrenewablecapacityadditionsmaynotadduptoabovementionedannualcapacityadditionsduetolimited
availabilityofgranulardataformultiplecountries.APAC=Asia-Pacificregion.ASEAN=AssociationofSoutheastAsian
Nations.
2021and2022forecastsummary
Renewablesdeploymentgearedupin2020,establishing
a“newnormal”forcapacityadditionsin2021and2022
Theexceptionallevelofrenewableenergycapacityadditionsisexpectedtobe
maintained,with270GWbecomingoperationalin2021and280GWin2022.This
expansionexceedstherecord-levelannualcapacityadditionsof2017-2019by
over50%,suchthatrenewablesareexpectedtoaccountfor90%oftotalglobal
powercapacityincreasesinboth2021and2022.
GE7U
.
S
-
IEA.Allrightsreserved.
Althoughtheamountofannualwindcapacityadditionsisexpectedtodecreasein
2021-2022aftertheexceptionaljumplastyearinChina,80GWofannual
installationsarestillanticipatedglobally,i.e.almost35%morethanin2019.
ContinuousgrowthinsolarPVadditions,spurredbylowerinvestmentcostsand
ongoingpolicysupport,partlycompensatesforlowerwindcapacityadditions.We
expectannualsolarPVexpansiontoreach145GWin2021and162GWin2022,
breakingrecordsandaccountingforalmostover55%ofallrenewableenergy
expansionthisyearandnext.Theaccelerationofhydropoweradditionsthrough
2022isdrivenbythecommissioningofmega-scaleprojectsinChina.Meanwhile,
expansioninotherrenewables,ledbybioenergy,remainsstableandrepresents
3%oftotalnewrenewablecapacityadditions.
Netrenewablecapacityadditionsbytechnology,2020-2022
PAGE|8
China'spolicytransitionslowsexpansion,butother
countriescompensatewithfastergrowth
AlthoughChinahasaccountedfor40%ofglobalrenewablecapacitygrowthfor
severalyearsalready,forthefirsttimein2020itwasresponsiblefor50%-a
recordlevelresultingfromtheunprecedentedpeakinnewinstallationsin
December.WeexpectChina'srenewablecapacityadditionstodeclinebyone-
quarterin2021comparedwithlastyearbecauseofthegovernment'sdecisionto
phaseoutsubsidiesforbothwindandsolarPVprojectsattheendof2020.There
isalsouncertaintyaboutthestructureofthenewincentiveschemesthatwillbe
announcedtowardstheendof2021.
Nevertheless,China'santicipatedannualrenewablecapacityadditions(+45%in
2021and+58%in2022)remainsignificantlyabovethe2017-2019average
despitethisslowdown.Growthmayaccelerateagainafter2022only,stimulated
bynewpolicymeasuresalignedwiththecountry'sambitiouslong-termtargetto
attainnet-zeroemissionsby2060.
Annualrenewablecapacityadditionsbycountryandregion,2017-2022
M
0
-^^>China匚二iUnitedStatesrEurope
coIndia?aASEANi)LatinAmerica
c=iMENA匚二JOthercountries-?-China'sshare
IEA.Allrightsreserved.
Notes:The“2017-19"barrepresentsaverageannualcapacityadditionsforthatthree-yearperiod.ASEAN=Associationof
SoutheastAsianNations.MENA=MiddleEastandNorthAfrica.
Europeacceleratesdeployment,becomingthesecond-
largestrenewablepowermarketafterChina
InEurope,annualcapacityadditionsareforecasttoincrease11%to44GWin
2021and49GWin2022.Withthisexpansion,thisyeartheregionwillbreakthe
recordforannualadditionsforthefirsttimesince2011andbecomethesecond-
largestmarketafterChina.Germanywillcontinuetodeliverthelargestrenewable
capacityadditionsinEurope,followedbyFrance,theNetherlands,Spain,the
PAGE|9
UnitedKingdomandTurkey.Thisstronggrowthresultsfrommultiplecountries
extendingtheirpoliciestomeettheEU2030climatetarget,andbycorporate
powerpurchaseagreement(PPA)marketsboominginseveralcountries:
Germany-supportforsolarPV,windandbioenergywithhigherauctionvolumes
throughGermany'sRenewableEnergyAct2021(EEG)
TheNetherlands-allocationofthenewSDE++schemeinDecember2020
Turkey-extensionoffeed-intariff(FIT)schemeforallrenewables
Poland-newauctionawardedalmost1GWofPVinDecember2020
Spain-recordcorporatePPAagreementssignedin2020
Sweden-lowwindgenerationcostsstimulateaboominthecorporatePPA
market;continuationofthePVrebateprogramme
TheUnitedKingdom-proposaltore-includeonshorewindandsolarPVinthe
2021contractsfordifference(CfD)auction.
WhileUStaxcreditextensionsimprovetheoutlookfor
onshorewind,approvalofproposedpolicieswould
boostrenewablesdeploymentbeyond2022
InDecember2020,theUSgovernmentextendedproductionandinvestmenttax
creditsbyonemoreyearforonshorewindandsolarPV.Thesechangeswill
mostlyaffecttheonshorewindsectorin2021and2022,astheextensionsmake
newprojectsstartingconstructionin2021eligibleforaUSD18/MWhtaxcredit.
Asaresult,wehaverevisedouronshorewindforecastupwardsby25%forthis
yearand2022.ForsolarPV,theinvestmenttaxcredit(ITC)haslittleeffectonour
short-termforecast,astheDecemberextensioncoversonlyprojectsstarting
constructionin2022and2023.Still,decliningcosts,arecoveringdistributedPV
sectorandgrowinginterestincorporatePPAsofferhopeformoreextensivesolar
PVexpansion.
ThenewUSinfrastructureplanpresentedinMarch2021proposesa"direct-pay"
provisionfortax-credit-eligiblerenewables,reducingtheneedforrelatively
expensivetaxequity.Asimilarprovisionpassedin2009boostedwinddeployment
significantlyduring2010-2014.Furthermore,theplanoffersaten-yeartaxcredit
extension,providingunprecedentedvisibilityforwindandPVdevelopers,spurring
muchfasterexpansion.However,thelegislativeprocessforthesepolicy
proposalshasnotyetbeencompletedandtheexpectedimpactsarethereforenot
PAGE|10
reflectedinourforecastfor2021and2022.Adetailedassessmentofthenew
infrastructureplan,andofotherrelevantlegislationtoachievetheannounced
targetsofhalvingUSgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsby2030andmaking
USelectricitycarbon-neutralby2035,willbeincludedinthefullautumneditionof
Renewables2021.
Indiaisbackontrack
TheCovid-19impactonrenewableenergydeploymenthasaffectedIndiamore
thananyothercountry:pandemic-inducedconstructiondelaysandgrid
connectionchallengescausedIndia'scapacityadditionstodeclinebyalmost50%
from2019to2020.Althoughnewrecordsforrenewablecapacityexpansionare
expectedtobesetin2021and2022asdelayedprojectsfromprevious
competitiveauctionsarecommissioned,thecurrent(April2021)surgeinCovid-19
caseshascreatedshort-termforecastuncertainty.Whilethefinancialhealthof
distributioncompanies(DISCOMs)remainstheprimarychallengetorenewable
energydeploymentinIndia,therecentlyproposedreformofUSD40billionto
improveDISCOMoperationsandfinanceswouldofferamorepositiveoutlook.
VietNam'sPVboomends,slowingASEANgrowth,while
expansionresumesinLatinAmericafollowingdelays
IntheASEANregion,rapidsolarPVexpansioninVietNamboostedtheregion's
capacityadditionstoarecord13GWin2020-60%higherthanin2019.However,
thephasingoutofFITsinVietNamandrelativelysluggishrenewableenergy
growthinIndonesiaandThailandleadstoatwo-thirdsdeclineinASEAN
expansionin2021and2022relativeto2020.InLatinAmerica,projectsdelayed
from2020willbecomeoperationalinBrazil,MexicoandChile,whileincreasingly
attractivedistributedPVcostsdriverapiddevelopmentthankstoBrazil'sgenerous
net-meteringpolicy.AgrowingcorporatePPAmarketandbilateralcontracts
outsideofauctionschemesalsosupportdeploymentinLatinAmerica.
Growthdriversfor2021and2022
Forecastadditionsfor2021and2022havebeenrevised
upwardsbyover25%fromlastyear
DespiteChina'sphaseoutofsubsidiesandongoingpolicytransition,itsforecast
hasbeenrevisedthemostfromlastyear.ThepipelineofsolarPVandwindplant
projectsacceptingprovincialelectricitypriceswithoutadditionalsubsidieshas
PAGE|11
increasedsincelastyear,resultinginamoreoptimisticforecast.IntheUnited
States,theextensionoftaxcreditsisexpectedtoleadtofastershort-termonshore
windgrowth,whileBrazil'sgenerousnetmeteringschemeresultsinadistributed
PVmarketboom,supportingupwardrevisionstotheLatinAmericaforecast.In
theASEANregion,VietNam'spolicychangesw川reducecapacityadditions
significantly,butgrowthisnotexpectedtocollapsefullythankstotheincreasing
cost-competitivenessofsolarPV.InIndia,contractedPVauctionvolumesin2020
exceededourpredictions,raisingforecastexpectations.
Capacityadditionsforecastrevisionsfor2021and2022
□Nov20forecast□May21forecast?%revision(rightaxis)
IEA.Allrightsreserved.
Note:ASEAN=AssociationofSoutheastAsianNations.
Record-breakingcompetitiveauctionsvolumesboost
renewablesdeploymentin2021and2022
Despitedecliningelectricitydemandandwholesalepowerpricedropsduetothe
impactsofpandemic,governmentsaroundtheworldauctionedarecordamount
ofrenewableenergycapacity,awardingalmost75GWofonshorewind,offshore
wind,solarPVandbioenergylastyear-20%morethanin2019.
Auctionsheldin2020(and2019)remainthemainbasisofourforecastfor2021
and2022,inadditiontoFITandnet-meteringpoliciesforsmallerapplications.
IndiaandChinatogetherauctionedalmost55GWofwindandPVcapacityat
averagecontractpricesofUSD60/MWhforwindandUSD47/MWhforPV.
AuctionactivityslowedslightlyinEurope,butthiswasbecausesmallervolumes
ofoffshorewindwerecontracted,whereasinLatinAmericathedropwas
significantasBrazil,ChileandArgentinapostponedtheir2020auctionsdueto
PAGE|12
lackofdemandandfinancingchallenges.Forthefirsttime,windandPVhybrid
auctionvolumeswereover6GW,mainlybecauseIndiaisofferingnew
opportunitiesfordevelopers.
Renewableelectricitycompetitiveauctioncapacitybyawarddate,2011-2020
CorporateprocurementexpandsaswindandPVcosts
continuetodecline
Likecompetitiveauctions,corporatepowerprocurementalsohadanotherrecord-
breakingyearin2020,witha25%year-on-yearincreasecreditedtodeclining
costs.WhiletheUnitedStatesremainstheworld'slargestcorporatePPAmarket,
activityinEuropealmosttripledwithSpainsigninglargecontractswithmultiple
PVdevelopersandSwedencontractingconsiderablewindprojects.IntheAsia-
Pacificregion,newdevelopmentsareemerginginKorea,Indiaandsome
provincesinChinawhenallowed.InLatinAmerica,Brazilcontinuestobethe
largestcorporatePPAmarketwithanincreasingnumberofprojectsrelyingon
long-termcontractsoutsidethegovernment'sauctionscheme.ElsewhereinLatin
America,PPAactivityinChileandMexicodeclinedlastyearasaresultofcurtailed
economicactivityandgrowingfinancingchallenges.
PAGE|13
CorporatePPAvolumesbyregionandtechnology
ByregionBytechnology
□Americas■Europe,MiddleEast&Africa□AsiaPacific□Solar■Wind0Other
IEA.Allrightsreserved.
Source:BloombergNewEnergyFinance(2021),CorporatePPAdatabase.
SolarPV
SolarPVcapacityadditionsareexpectedtoincrease8%toover145GWin2021.
PVhasbecomethelowest-costoptionforelectricitygenerationinmanycountries,
especiallythosewithgoodresourceavailabilityandaffordablefinancing.Asa
result,corporationsareincreasinglyoptingforbilateralcontractswithlarge-scale
solarPVplantstomeettheirenergydemand.Thankstofurthercostreductions
andcontinuouspolicysupportfrom120governmentsglobally,PVcapacity
additionsareforecasttoexpandfurtherto162GWin2022.
LargerprojectsdominatethesolarPVmarket
Theshareofutility-scaleapplicationsinannualPVadditionsisforecasttoincrease
fromover55%in2020toalmost70%in2022.Althoughtheshareofdistributed
projectsinoverallPVdeploymentincreasedfrom25%in2016tonearly45%in
2018owingtoChina'sattractivesupportscheme,thistrendwasreversedin2019
whentheChinesegovernmentreduceditsgenerousFITsforcommercialand
industrialPVprojects.Nevertheless,sustainedsupportdoubledthedeployment
ofresidentialapplicationsfrom2019to2020.OutsideChina,expanding
competitivecorporatePPAmarketsinUnitedStatesandEuropehavemadelarger
utility-scaleprojectsmoreeconomicallyattractive.
PAGE|14
AnnualsolarPVcapacityadditionsbyapplicationsegment,2015-2022
IEA.Allrightsreserved.
Supplychainconstraintsandrisingcommodityprices
provokeshort-termPVpriceuncertainties
SolarPVmodulepricesclimbedfromJuly2020toApril2021duetosupplychain
complicationsandrisingcommodityprices,erasingthe25%pricereduction
achievedbetweenJanuaryandJune2020.FiresintwoPV-gradesilicon
manufacturingplantsintheXinjiangprovinceinJuly2020almosthalvedChina's
totalsiliconoutputandpushedsiliconpricesup60%inSeptember2020.Although
manufacturingcapacityhassincerecoveredgraduallyandthecostofsilicon
materialshasbeguntofall,pricesattheendof2020werestillsignificantlyhigher
thanearlierintheyearduetoatightsupply-demandbalanceanddelaysin
commissioningnewmanufacturingcapacityinotherChineseprovinces.
Meanwhile,thevalueofseveralkeyinputmaterialsforPVpanelmanufacturing
alsoincreasedconsiderably.Inthesecondhalfof2020,PV-gradeglassprices
surged50%,mainlyduetogrowingdemandforbifacialmodulesanddelaystothe
modernisationofhigh-costproductionlines.Steelandcopperpricesalsorose
40%fromSeptember2020toMarch2021,boostedbyrapideconomicrecovery
inChinaandotheremergingeconomies.Inaddition,relativelyhigheroilprices
andtheglobaleconomy'srecoveryfromthepandemictripledglobalfreightcosts,
raisingthepriceofChinesemodulesexportedaroundtheworld.
PAGE|15
IndexedpricesforsolarPVmodule,silicon,glassandothercommodities,2020-2021
1.9
S
8
_PV-gradesilicon
d」
P
(XD
①PV-gradeglass
p
_u
Copper
Steel
Silver
溫馨提示
- 1. 本站所有資源如無特殊說明,都需要本地電腦安裝OFFICE2007和PDF閱讀器。圖紙軟件為CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.壓縮文件請下載最新的WinRAR軟件解壓。
- 2. 本站的文檔不包含任何第三方提供的附件圖紙等,如果需要附件,請聯系上傳者。文件的所有權益歸上傳用戶所有。
- 3. 本站RAR壓縮包中若帶圖紙,網頁內容里面會有圖紙預覽,若沒有圖紙預覽就沒有圖紙。
- 4. 未經權益所有人同意不得將文件中的內容挪作商業或盈利用途。
- 5. 人人文庫網僅提供信息存儲空間,僅對用戶上傳內容的表現方式做保護處理,對用戶上傳分享的文檔內容本身不做任何修改或編輯,并不能對任何下載內容負責。
- 6. 下載文件中如有侵權或不適當內容,請與我們聯系,我們立即糾正。
- 7. 本站不保證下載資源的準確性、安全性和完整性, 同時也不承擔用戶因使用這些下載資源對自己和他人造成任何形式的傷害或損失。
最新文檔
- 描寫家鄉的元宵節滿分作文(9篇)
- 關于保護動物的討論議論文9篇
- 記一件難忘的事事件作文(11篇)
- 我的成長故事記一次難忘的經歷(12篇)
- 《三維幾何變換講解教學教案》
- 人類文化遺產保護與旅游開發知識要點梳理
- 學術背景支撐下的實習工作證明(6篇)
- 智能照明系統維護服務合同
- 數字化學習資源培優助困計劃
- 海洋工程項目的綠色施工措施
- 2025年商法知識競賽考試試卷及答案
- 2025年山東省臨沂市平邑縣中考一模語文試題(含答案)
- 2025年電子信息工程專業考試試題及答案
- 【威海】2025年山東省威海技師學院公開招聘工作人員29人筆試歷年典型考題及考點剖析附帶答案詳解
- 2025年第六屆全國國家版圖知識競賽題庫及答案
- 機械租賃投標服務方案
- 2025年北京市朝陽區九年級初三一模英語試卷(含答案)
- Unit1-Unit2重點短語(背誦版+默寫版)外研版英語新七年級下冊
- 《抗休克藥物治療》課件
- 《2024 3572-T-424 重大活動食品安全保障規范 第 3 部分:供餐》知識培訓
- 2025年中考語文總復習:八年級下冊教材字詞打卡練
評論
0/150
提交評論