1、西方報刊經貿文章選讀-第五版-unit-3知識The New Pattern of the World Economy-Emerging nations powering global economic boom當代世界經濟格局的演變及其特征二戰后初期-20世紀60年代末美國獨霸的世界經濟格局美國獨掌資本主義世界經濟霸權，統一的世界經濟體系被截然分裂為兩個互不聯系的獨立的經濟體系。20世紀70年代后世界經濟格局多極化發展兩大陣營的對立開始緩和，其他經濟力量迅速發展與美國經濟霸權的相對衰落，共同推動了世界經濟格局向多級方向的轉變。20世紀80年代以來世界經濟格局的新變化蘇聯世界經濟大國地位消失；

2、東亞經濟迅速崛起；世界經濟體系內部矛盾發生變化：西方國家固有的經濟矛盾顯露出來，南北矛盾加劇。發達經濟體VS.新興市場和發展中國家金磚五國通貨膨脹率與存款利率的關系通貨膨脹是由于流動性過剩產生的，說白了就是市場上流通的錢太多了，通貨膨脹率高，錢就貶值，人們就要抓緊買東西，不存錢了。提高銀行存款利率，有利于回籠市場中流動的資金，從而可以抑制通貨膨脹。 所以，從表面上看，一般通貨膨脹率較高時，存款利率會相應的提高，其作用是為了使得通貨膨脹率降低。 利率對投資規模的影響 利率對投資規模的影響是指利率作為投資的機會成本對社會總投資的影響。在投資收益不變的條件下，因利率上升而導致的投資成本增加，必然使那

3、些投資收益較低的投資者退出投資領域，從而使投資需求減少。相反，利率下跌則意味著投資成本下降，從而刺激投資，使社會總投資增加。正是由于利率具有這一作用，西方經濟理論界與貨幣管理當局都把利率視為衡量經濟運行狀況的一個重要指標和調節經濟運行的重要手段。因此，自30年代大蕭條以來，控制利率水平在西方貨幣政策體系中曾一度占有舉足輕重的地位。利率的變化對股市的影響 1利率的上升，不僅會增加公司的借款成本，而且還會使公司難以獲得必需的資金，這樣，公司就不得不削減生產規模，而生產規模的縮小又勢必會減少公司的未來利潤。因此，股票價格就會下降。反之，股票價格就會上漲。 2利率上升時，投資者據以評估股票價值所在的折

4、現率也會上升，股票價值因此會下降，從而，也會使股票價格相應下降；反之，利率下降時，股票價格就會上升。3利率上升時，一部分資金從投向股市轉向到銀行儲蓄和購買債券，從而會減少市場上的股票需求，使股票價格出現下跌。反之，利率下降時，儲蓄的獲利能力降低，一部分資金就可能回到股市中來，從而擴大對股票的需求，使股票價格上漲。利率與經濟發展速度的關系利率高低與經濟發展速度成正比發達國家經濟增長慢，貸款需求低，利率低發展中國家經濟增長快，貸款需求大，利率高True or False1. Now the global economy is going through the broadest and stron

5、gest expansion.2. Developed countries are still playing a dominant role in the global economy.3. The simplest yardstick of economic success for a country is its growth in GDP.(T)(F)(F)True or False4. With globalization of world economy, the employment, import-spending and the living standard of peop

6、le worldwide have risen a lot.5. The developed world has also benefited a lot from the emerging nations.6. There are great voices that go against globalization for the unevenly distributed prosperity.(F)(T)(T)True or False7. The greatest risk to the economic boom is national protectionism.8. To ensu

7、re a stable economic growth, emerging countries should encourage more domestic consumption. (F)(T)StructureGeneral situation of global economyEmerging economiesComparison between developing nations and the developed world Impact on the developed world and the developing worldRisks to the global econ

8、omic boomSolutionConclusionGeneral situation of global economy1. What is the general economic situation of the world? (Read Paragraph 1-3.)The global economy is on a growth streak that is shaping up to be the broadest and strongest expansion in more than three decades.2. What countries are playing a

9、 dominant role in the global economy currently? And what is the trend driven by? (Read Paragraph 4-6.)The developing countries are playing a dominant role.The trend is driven by free trade.Bridgewater Associates布里奇沃特投資公司Bridgewater Associatesis an Americaninvestment managementfirm founded in 1975. T

10、he firm serves institutional clients includingpension funds,endowments,foundations, foreigngovernmentsandcentral banks.與一般對沖基金不同的是，布里奇沃特投資公司不為富人管理金錢，而是只跟養老基金和主權財富基金等大型機構合作。 布里奇沃特投資公司總部是一幢不起眼的磚石玻璃結構三層樓房，坐落在康涅狄格州韋斯特波特縣一片 22 畝的茂密林地中，在格林尼治海岸以北約 20 英里。View of lake and trees surrounding the corporate head

11、quarters in Westport, ConnecticutEmerging economies3. Which countries are cited as exles of emerging economies? What is driving the economic growth of these countries respectively ? (Para. 7-Para.16)Soweto swi:tu索維托小鎮Comparison between developing nations and the developed world 4. What is the simple

12、st yardstick of economic success for a country? How faster might the economy of the developing nations grow than that of the developed in 2006? (Read Paragraph 17.)Its a countrys growth in real gross domestic product, or how fast its total output of goods and services is rising after inflation.The g

13、rowth rate of the developing world might be more than double that of the developed world in 2006 according to the IMF.International Monetary Fund，IMF國際貨幣基金組織于1945年12月27日成立，為世界兩大金融機構之一，職責是監察貨幣匯率和各國貿易情況、提供技術和資金協助，確保全球金融制度運作正常；其總部設在華盛頓。截至2012年4月，國際貨幣基金組織共有188個成員國, 要成為成員國，該國的申請須得到大多數現有成員國的同意。基金組織通過以下三項主

14、要職能來達致促進國際金融體系穩定的目的。監督：監督國際貨幣體系和成員國的政策，并跟蹤各地的經濟和金融情況，在必要時提出警告；貸款：向有國際收支困難的國家貸款；技術援助和培訓：幫助成員國發展健全的制度和經濟政策工具。World Bank Group世界銀行（WBG）是世界銀行集團的俗稱，“世界銀行”這個名稱一直是用于指國際復興開發銀行（IBRD）和國際開發協會（IDA）。這些機構聯合向發展中國家提供低息貸款、無息信貸和贈款。 世界銀行成立于1945年12月27日，1946年6月開始營業?？偛吭O在美國首都華盛頓。凡是參加世界銀行的國家必須首先是國際貨幣基金組織的會員國。世界銀行是一個國際組織，一開

15、始它的目的是幫助歐洲國家和日本在二戰后的重建，此外它應該輔助非洲、亞洲和拉丁美洲國家的經濟發展。一開始世界銀行的貸款主要集中于大規模的基礎建設。日本和西歐國家“畢業”（達到一定的人均收入水平）后世界銀行完全集中于發展中國家。從1990年代初開始世界銀行也開始向東歐國家和原蘇聯國家貸款。Impact on the developed world4. With globalization of the world economy, what has happened to employment, import-spending and the living standard of some peo

16、ple in the developed countries? (Read Paragraph 20-23.)With the developed worlds growth lagging well behind that of emerging economies in the globalization, wages in the U.S. have been slow to rise in recent years, unemployment rates remain stubbornly high in Western Europe , and the living standard

17、 of some people are improved little in industrialized nations. And with the rapid development of the emerging economies in the globalization, the demand and the prices for commodities are increasingly high and developed countries pay more for their oil and other commodity imports.5. And how much has

18、 the developed world benefited from the progress of the globalization? (Read Paragraph 24-33.)The emerging economies offer a vast market to the industrialized countries. U.S. corporations are selling more abroad than ever before. Global demand for Japanese exports has helped pull the nation out of a

19、 15-year funk. Global growth also has kept Germany at the top of the list of world exporters. And low-cost goods from developing nations have helped keep inflation pressures muted despite the jump in oil prices everywhere in the world.Impact on the Developing countries6. Why is there a mounting back

20、lash against the economic globalization? (Read Paragraph 34-38.)Because “prosperity isnt evenly distributed.”Risks to the Economic Boom7. What are the risks to the boom? (Read Paragraph 39-42.)The potential for a mounting backlash against globalization, in both the developing and developed worlds, i

21、s one big risk to the economic boom.The greater risk to the boom is that it will sow the seeds of its own demise by fostering rising inflation and interest rates.Steroid 類固醇, 學名叫做“腎上腺皮質素”，正常人的腎上腺每天都會分泌一定量的類固醇來維持體內正常的生理運作，如調節血糖、蛋白質、脂肪、及電解質的代謝，它是維持生命不可或缺的重要荷爾蒙。臨床上類固醇是很好的藥物，它可被廣泛應用于治療許多疑難雜癥即特殊的疾病，幾乎到了無

22、病不可用的境地；而且確實會減輕許多的癥狀，使癥狀得到暫時的舒解，所以它又博得“仙丹”之名。Benchmark interest rate基準利率,是金融市場上具有普遍參照作用的利率，其他利率水平或金融資產價格均可根據這一基準利率水平來確定。在利率市場化條件下，融資者衡量融資成本，投資者計算投資收益，以及管理層對宏觀經濟的調控，客觀上都要求有一個普遍公認的基準利率水平作參考。在中國，以中國人民銀行對國家專業銀行和其他金融機構規定的存貸款利率為基準利率。Tighten Credit 緊縮信貸一般來說，信貸緊縮是指經營貸款的金融機構提高貸款標準，以高于市場利率水平的條件發放貸款，甚至不愿發放貸款，從

23、而導致信貸增長下降，信貸資金難以滿足社會再生產的合理需求的現象。Solutions 8. What should the export-dependent developing nations do if they could not export to the U.S. as much as now? (Read Paragraph 49.)They should encourage more consumption at home and among other emerging-market trading partnersLesson 3 Text推動經濟增長to boost econ

24、omies復蘇 recovery新興國家emerging nation (country)去掉了通貨膨脹因素地 adjusted for inflation解除經濟管制economic deregulation推動消費需求to power consumer demand免稅商店duty-free shop購買能力buying capacity零售retail消費品consumer goods衡量標準yardstick按實際購買力估值的國內生產總值 real gross domestic product工業化國家industrialized nation (country)觸發貿易保護主義情緒

25、to trigger protectionist sentiment急劇上升的價格 zooming price初級產品commodity生活水平 living standards財富的轉移 a transfer of wealth標準普爾500家股票價格指數 Standard & Poors 500 index經紀公司brokerage股票市場 stock market提高短期利率 to raise short-term interest rate抵消 to offset達到50年最高點to hit a fifty-year high均勻地分布to distribute evenly超過50%

26、 to top 50%國有化to nationalize對中國商品征收新的關稅 to slap new tariff on Chinese goods暴跌to tumble聯邦儲備銀行（美國）the Federal Reserve緊縮信貸to tighten credit依靠出口的發展中國家 export-dependent country需求下降a drop in demandMaybe developing nations are not emerging but have emerged Theme?Developing nations have emerged (Real GDP growth, current account)Structure?Current account經常項目，一國國際收支的主要組成部分，主要包括商品貿易收支，即有形貨物的進出口，及服務貿易收支，即諸如旅游、銀行及保險等各種服務的往來。另外，還包括單方