1、第四章工程投標決策和投標策略Chapter 4Decision-making in construction project tenderAnd the strategies in the tenderIntroductions of this chapter教學提示，教學提示，Notes for teaching： 投標人為達到中標及中標后獲得好的經濟效益的目的，必須進行投標決策。It is necessary for tenders to make decision to win in the tender and to realize a good economic efficienci

2、es.影響投標決策的因素體現在主觀和客觀兩方面。Two factors, objective and subjective ones make practically impression upon decision-made in a tender.投標決策中運用的方法主要有八項標準判別法、線形規劃方法和決策樹法等三種。The methodologies utilized in the construction project decision making have “the judication by the eight standards”， the linear programmin

3、g，and “decision-make tree “ analysis or the diagram analysis。 投標人在遞交投標文件前應制定相應的投標決策和報價技巧，以提高中標的可能性并獲得較好的經濟效益。A tender must make up a series of relative decision and the tactics of certainty of the price before the book of tender is given out so as to heighten the probability of winning a tender and

4、to gain a good economic efficiencies。教學要求 本章要求學生了解投標決策的概念、投標決策的影響因素、投標策略的概念， In this chapter first the students are required to learn about the notion of “ decision-making of tender” ,about the factors that press upon decision-making of tender, and the notion “strategies of tender” ,掌握投標決策的方法及常見的投標策

5、略和報價技巧。 secondly we must master the methods often used in decision-made for a tender, master the common tenders strategies and tactics in making decision of certainty of price.4.1工程投標決策 4。1.1 the notion of the tender decision-making 又稱為工程投標的戰略決策，即依據企業戰略目標，對工程投標中一系列重大全局性問題，作出理性決定。The strategies decis

6、ion-made in a tender，is to decide rationally serious of matter in accordance to the corporative strategy target 投標決策的三個方面Tender decision-madeWhether to tender or notwhatKind of bidTo bid upHow to use the Strategies in thetenderAim to win aproject and toRealize a good economicalEfficiencyTo participa

7、te in or to win a projectIn technology andundertaking4.1投標決策的含義4.1.2 投標決策階段的劃分 Two stages：前期階段the pre-stage of the tender后期階段the post stage of a tender招標人確定的購買投標人資格預審資料的時間決策依據：決策依據：招標文件；關于招標工程、業主的情況；國際工程：所在地了解與工程了解一般應棄標的情況 （1）本企業主管或兼營能力以外的項目 （2）工程規模、技術要求超過本施工企業技術等級的項目。 （3）本企業生產任務飽滿，而招標工程的盈利水平較低或風險較大

8、的項目。 （4）本企業技術等級、信譽、施工水平明顯不如競爭對手。投標性質分類 風險標和保險標； 盈利標、保本標和虧損標4.1.3影響投標決策的因素 “知己知彼，百戰不怠”。“struggles wont lose in the case I know myself and know the others”。工程投標決策研究就是知己知彼的研究。The study of decision-making in construction project tender is just the research that one knows himself and knows the others。這個“

9、己”就是影響投標決策的主觀因素，“彼”就是影響投標決策的客觀因素。In other word，the “myself” just implies to the objective factors， and the others do imply the subjective factors that would press impression on decision-making in a tender 。1影響投標決策的主觀因素the objective factors that make impression upon decision-making in tender 投標或者棄標，首

10、先取決于投標單位的實力，其實力體現在以下幾方面。The first of factors that make one decide whether to bid up or to give up is real energy one has himself。The following reflect ones real energy 。 1）技術方面的實力 2)經濟方面的實力 3）管理方面的實力 4）信譽方面的實力綜合實力綜合實力the subjective real comprehensive strenght 技術實力經濟實力管理實力信譽實力Organizational stuff，pro

11、vision and practiceConstruction experienceCooperative fellowFixed assets and faculty and the required cash；Payment for delegate； payment for endorsement；Capital； Foreign exchange for international project；Cycled funds； payment for Tax and Insurance；Cost control；Time control in the tender；Labor and s

12、tuff control； Target management especially utilized in target cost；Rationally make the decision of price in a construction project tender；Advanced management in useReal Strenght in credit；Abide by agreement；obey law；Abide by international common customs決定投標或棄標的客觀因素the objective factors decide to bid

13、 or give up in a construction project 適用國際慣例The decisive objective factors to bid up or not in a project決定投標或棄標的客觀因素The situation ofLaw and regulation法律、法規的情況競爭對手和競爭形勢分析The five rulersIn the use ofLaws法律適用的五原則強制適用工程所在地法的原則意思自治國際法效力優于國內法原則適用國際慣例原則最密切聯系The situation ofowner andengineerCompel to utiliz

14、e the sited （local）law of the project業主或監理工程師的情況Autonomous ruleThe most relative rulerThe ruler utilized in the international common customsrulerThe lawful force of the international law superior toThe national lawSWOT分析-chance and terror；The super and weakM。E。Porter低成本策略；差別化策略；聚焦戰略SuperiorityOr the

15、 weakoTSO 戰略WO戰略ST戰略WT戰略The application of the methodologyin decision-made Models： （1）目的：盡可能擴大近期利潤； （2）最低投標報價者中標：標價與中標率的合理關系；4八項指標判別法“to judice by eight norms” （1）承包商即期經營狀況和投標目標 （2）是否具有參加某項工程投標的條件： 工人的技術水平； 企業的機械設備能力； 企業的設計能力 工程的交工條件； 企業對工程的熟悉程度； 企業以往對此類項目的經驗； 承包該項目對今后得到新投標機會的影響； 擬投標項目競爭的激烈程度。評分表八項標

16、準八項標準權權 數數判斷等級及等級得分判斷等級及等級得分各項標各項標準得分準得分上（10)中(5)下(0)工人的技術水平；20企業的機械設備能力； 20企業的設計能力5工程的交工條件；10企業對工程的熟悉程度；15企業以往對此類項目的經驗；10承包該項目對今后得到新投標機會的影響；10擬投標項目競爭的激烈程度。10合計100預定可投標的最低分值7005線形規劃方法linear programming linear programming in the use of tender decision-making： Models： linear relative Aims： linear rela

17、tive C。F：例4.2假定現有甲乙丙三種住宅可以投標。該投標單位木工和鋼筋工教短缺，估計今年能提供的木工工日為13000；鋼筋工為11000。三種住宅各需木工、鋼筋工工日數如表，承包甲乙丙三種住宅每棟可獲利潤為：4000；6000；8000元。試問應如何投標可獲得最大利潤。甲乙丙木工需用工日數400500600鋼筋工需用工日數350380400解題步驟（1）確定決策變量variable for decision-made（X1：X2：X3）（2）確定目標函數式；certainty of the function for the aimmaxE=4000X1+6000X2+8000X3（3）

18、確定必須滿足的約束條件式 the certainty of the constraint situation；400 x1+500X2+600X313000；350 x1+380X2+400X311000；（4）建立線形規劃模型to make up the linear programming modelmaxE=4000X1+6000X2+8000X3400 x1+500X2+600X313000；350 x1+380X2+400X311000；X1、x2、x30求解略6決策樹法 1）決策樹的含義 決策樹是由決策點、方案分枝、自然狀態點、概率分支、損益值五要素構成。方案分枝損益值概率分支自然狀態點決策點2）決策樹分析步驟 （1）繪制決策樹圖； （2）計算各自然狀態點期望值； （3）進行剪枝決策應用舉例1 某承包商決定參加一工程項目投標，該項目可按高價、中價、低價三種方案進行投標，若中標后經估算三方案利潤分別為150萬元、100萬元、60萬元，根據過去參加同類項目的經驗，三方案中標概率分別為0.3、0.6、0.9，投標文件編制費為2萬元，請問該如何投標。（1）先繪制決策樹圖1234150-2100-260-2