1 中文 2640 字 本科畢業論文（設計） 外 文 翻 譯 外文出處 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg,2008,173-182 外文作者 Cengiz Kahraman,Tufan Demirel,and Nihan Demirel 原文 ： Effects of Inflation under Fuzziness and Some Applications Abstract:This chapter presents the ways of incorporating the parameter fuzzy inflation to the engineering economy analyses. Inflation is a financial parameter difficult to estimate. The fuzzy set theory gives us the possibility of converting linguistic expressions about inflation estimates to numerical values. In the chapter, discounted cash flow techniques including these fuzzy expressions and some numerical examples are given. The obtained results show the interval of the worst and the best possible outcomes when fuzzy inflation rates are taken into account. 1 Introduction Inflation is an increase in the amount of money necessary to obtain the same amount of product or service before the inflated price was present. With the inflation in anytime prices rise and the purchasing power decreases, it takes more dollars for the same amount of goods or services. Deflation is the opposite of inflation. It has the oppositeeffects, with deflation prices decrease and the purchasing power increases. With the deflation, it takes fewer dollars in the future to buy the same amount of goods or services as it does today. The governments can be face to face with the inflation much more commonly than deflation at national economy (Blank and Tarquin 2002,Sharp-Bette and Park 1990, Degarmo et al. 1990, G.nen 1990, Young 1993). 2 Most people are undoubtedly aware that inflation has to do with price increases. What is perhaps less well-known is that the meaning of the word inflation has changed somewhat over time. Originally the word inflation was used to describe a characteristic of money that its value was eroded. This happens when all prices in an economy rise at the same rate over time. When all prices rise at the same rate,households incomes (for example wages) increase as much as their expenses. This means that households have to pay more for the same quantity of goods. However,neither household consumption nor its actual value (utility) is affected when all prices rise at the same rate. Over time, however, the meaning of the word inflation has changed somewhat. Today it is often used synonymously with the words price increase and can there by describe any kind of price rises, not just increases in all prices. For example, one often hears of wage inflation, domestic inflation or imported inflation. None of these terms mean an increase in all prices. Rather, they refer to rises in the prices of certain specific goods or services. The most common and most well-known measure of inflation is the change in the consumer price index - the CPI. The CPI is a so-called cost-of-living index or compensation index. This means that the CPI measures how consumers cost of living changes over time. If consumers incomes increase at the same rate as their cost of living, their utility will be unchanged over time. The CPI is often used for exactly this purpose - as a basis for adjusting pensions or determining how compensation clauses in different agreements should be interpreted. To adjust for the effects of inflation in project evaluation, most authors prefer to use a general index, such as the Consumers Price Index. The reason is as follows: Since it is the investors real income or purchasing power that we seek to enhance,there is a slight advantage in choosing an index of Consumer Goods prices such as the CPI. The changeable value of currency is the reason of inflation. With the inflation the currency value goes down. The inflation and deflation can be occurred as higher prices for food, cars, and other purchased commodities and services for the people. 3 On the other hand for the business and government, inflation has eroded the purchasingpower of savings and earnings, if interest rates and salary raises have not kept pace with general price trends. Inflation types are shown below: Cost push inflation: Increases in producers costs that are passed along to customers,sometimes with disproportionate escalations that push prices up. Demand-pull inflation: Excessive spending power of consumers, sometimes obtained at the expense of savings that pulls prices up. When the literature is searched, we can see that there are few works on fuzzy inflation.Kahraman and Tolga (1995) examine the effects of fuzzy inflation rate on aftertaxrate calculations. De and Goswami (2006) present an EOQ model with fuzzyinflation rate and fuzzy deterioration rate when a delay in payment is permissible. 2 Relation between Inflation and Interest Inflation affects everyone with some degree. The degree of inflation affects the consequences when inflation is mild, the economy prospers. When inflation is moderate,increased demand pulls prices still higher. When inflation is severe, prices rise much faster than wages do. When inflation is hyperinflation (this is the most dangerous level of inflation), this uncontrolled inflation destroys a nations economy (Park2006). Hyperinflation is a problem in countries where political instability, overspending by the government, weak international trade balances, etc., is present (Sharp-Betteand Park 1990). When the government has inflation in its economy, first of all it pays attention to credit restrictions, wage controls, contraction of the money supply, reduction in demand by raising taxes, increased demand by reducing taxes, enlarged supply of goods through greater productivity stimulated by investment incentives and wage-price guidelines backed by political persuasion to manage inflation and its effects on the economy (Park 2006). On the other hand the government can redefine the currency in terms of the currency of another country, control banks and corporations, and control of the flow of capital into and out of the country in order to decrease inflation(Sharp-Bette and Park 1990). 4 Most of the engineering economists are more interested in the effects of inflation than its causes and corrections. Due to inflation, a dollar assumes different values at different times. The dollars do not have the same value for yesterday, today and tomorrow. The engineering economists have to predict the dollars values and organize their works by concerning with inflation and also they have to research what would happen if inflation became high level such as moderate or severe. 2.1 Inflation Measurement The measurement of inflation is difficult because the prices of different goods and services do not increase or decrease by the same amount, they change at different times by the different amounts. The calculation of a general inflation rate can be changed by geographical differences in prices and different buying habits of consumers. The whole sale price index, producer price index, and consumer price index are used for the measurement of inflation rates. The consumer price index is the most commonly used technique for the inflation rate measurement. The whole sale price index (WPI): This index measures inflation at the whole sale level for both consumer and industrial goods. Producer price index (PPI): This index measures average changes in prices receivedby producers of all commodities. On the other hand PPI is a composite that measures changes in prices paid for selected goods and services used by producers(Blank and Tarquin 2002). Consumer price index (CPI): For calculation of CPI, prices for goods are obtained monthly and are averaged according to demographic distributions. Then the prices are weighted according to the expenditure proportions of the typical family (Park2006). CPI is a composite that measures changes in prices paid for selected goods and services used by ultimate consumers (Blank and Tarquin 2002). In CPI seven different things are measured as fixed market basket of goods, foods and beverages,housing, apparel and upkeep, transportation, medical care, entertainment, and other (education, personal care, etc.). This index shows the effect of retail price changes on a selected standard of living. 5 2.2 Impact of Inflation The analysts have to be interested in the impact of inflation on economic evaluations. There are two basic methods for researchers in the literature for consideration of inflation in their calculations. Constant (real) dollars: All cash flows are converted to money units that have constant purchasing power for eliminating inflation effects. It is generally easier to estimate future costs in constant dollars because the estimator is familiar with todays values. On the other hand there are two weaknesses limiting the usefulness of the constant dollar: tax effects are ignored and no provision is made for differences inescalation rates among price and cost components (Biermann and Smidt 1990). It is denoted “R$”. Future dollars: In the amount of money units that are called future dollars actually exchanged at the time of each transaction for estimating cash flows. Future dollars are sometimes called then-current dollars, nominal dollars, or actual dollars. It is denoted as “A$” It is a simple matter to convert estimates in real dollar flow to actual dollar flow when inflation is assumed to be a constant rate. To make comparisons between monetary amounts which occur in different time periods, the different-valued dollars must first be converted to constant value dollars in order to represent the same purchasing power over time (Sharp-Bette and Park 1990). As an economic evaluation, when the rate of inflation increases, there is a corresponding increase in the market interest rate. Inflation is differential rather than uniform. Goods and services prices do not always change proportionately. Including the effect of inflation is a second-order refinement for economic evaluations; the first-order refinement was the inclusion of the effect of taxes on basic cash flow. For eliminating weaknesses of the constant dollar approach, the analysts can use after-tax actual cash flow comparisons. In the literature, there are three different comparisons for actual cash flows: No responsive charges in after-tax analysis. Multiple inflation rates in an after-tax analysis. 6 After-tax modified cash flow comparison. 譯文 ： 隱蔽性通貨膨脹的影響及其應用 摘要：這個章節主要包擴隱蔽性通貨膨脹分析方法。通貨膨脹是一個難以估計的財政參數。隱蔽性通貨膨脹理論告訴我們如何表達通貨膨脹以及如何用數值表達隱蔽性通貨膨脹。在本章節中，忽略了現金流量的影響，表述了隱蔽性的概念以及列舉一些數據。結果顯示在考慮了隱蔽性通貨膨脹后的最壞可能結果和最好可能結果結果的差距。 一、簡介 : 通貨膨脹概念指的是貨幣的增長沒有與之對應的相同數量的產品或者服務，在通貨膨脹下物價是當前物價。在通貨膨脹時期，隨著物價上升貨幣購買力會減少，將來將花費更多的美元才 得到和今天相同數量的產品或服務。通貨緊縮是通貨膨脹的對立面起到相反的效果，當通貨緊縮時期，物價下降和貨幣購買力增加，將來將花費更少的美元得到和今天相同的數量產品或服務。通常情況下，政府面對通貨膨脹情況多于通貨緊縮的情況（ Blank and Tarquin 2002,Sharp-Bette and Park 1990, Degarmo et al. 1990, G.nen 1990, Young 1993）。 毫無疑問，多數人認為通貨膨脹必伴隨物價增加。但很少有人知道通貨膨脹一詞的意思已隨著時間的流逝發生改變 了。最初通貨膨脹一詞用來描述價值被貶值的貨幣的特征。這發生在經濟和物價同比增長的時候。所有物價以相同的比率上升時，家庭的收入（例如工資）增長和家庭支出相同。這表示家庭必須為相同的數量的商品支付更多的貨幣。然而，在物價上升相同比率時，家庭支出和實際的價值（效用）均不受其影響 隨著經濟的發展，通貨膨脹一詞的意思有所改變。現在通貨膨脹經常被定義為當物價不同增長時可以描述多種物價上漲，不只在所有物價相同比率增長的情況。例如，我們經常聽說工資通貨膨脹，國內通貨膨脹或進口通貨膨脹。這些并不意味著所有商品的價格都上漲。更 確切地說，他們指的是某些特定產品或服務物價的上漲。 計量通貨膨脹的最多最常用的方法是消費者物價指數 - CPI。 CPI 是所謂的7 生活成本指數或補償指數。 CPI 是用來測量消費者生活成本隨著時間的變化而變化。如果消費者的收入和生活成本增長相通，他們的效用隨著時間的流逝將是不變的。 CPI 經常被用來確定這樣的目標即用于調整養老金或確定協議的補償條款應該怎樣的得到的補償數。 為調整項目評估中通貨膨脹的效果，多數作者喜歡使用一個常規的指數，例如消費者物價指數。理由如下：它是投資者的實際收入或我們試圖提高的購買力，這是使用 CPI 的一個好處。 貨幣的可變價值是通貨膨脹的原因。當通貨膨脹時，貨幣價值下降。通貨膨脹和通貨緊縮更容易發生在如食物，汽車，等商品和服務物價上升時時候。在另一方面對商業和政府而言，如果利率和工資薪酬的增加沒有跟上一般物價的增長，那么通貨膨脹就會削弱了儲蓄和收入購買力。 通貨膨脹的類型如下： 成本推動通貨膨脹：生產者的成本增加轉嫁給消費者 ,從而成本增長不成比例的拉動物價增長 需求拉動通貨膨脹：過度的消費能力限制了儲蓄增長，從而帶動了物價的增長。 收索相關文獻，我們發現隱藏的通貨膨脹導致失業。 Kahraman 和 Tolga（ 1995 年）計算了隱蔽通貨膨脹的稅后影響。 De 和 Goswami（ 2006 年）發表了一個關于測量隱蔽性通貨膨脹率和延期付款后隱蔽程度的 EOQ 模型。 二通脹和利率之間的關系 通貨膨脹在一定程度上影響每個人。通貨膨脹程度決定了通貨膨脹的影響程度。在溫和通貨膨脹下，經濟緩慢增長，日益增加的需求拉動物價。在惡性通貨膨脹下，物價上漲高于工資上漲。當處在惡性通貨膨脹時（惡性通貨膨脹是通貨膨脹之中危險水平最高的），不受控制的通貨膨脹摧毀一個國家的經濟水平 ( Park2006 )。當一個國 家政治不穩定、政府過度支出、國際貿易失衡，等等（夏普 -Betteand 公園 1990 年）將出現惡性通貨膨脹的問題。當一國政府經濟上出現通貨膨脹時，首先該國信用貸款水平受到限制，其次工資水平受到限制，貨幣供給量減少，稅收增加需求減少或稅收減少需求增加，說服管理當局增加投資或提高工資水平來刺激生產力從而