Coffee

Barometer

2023

Content

1.Introduction2

2.Coffeetrade5

3.Resilientlivelihoods13

4.Coffeebrewindex21

5.Towardsmandatorycompliance37

6.Conclusion45

Sources50

Endnotes51

Listofabbreviations52

Bibliography53Colophon56

Coffee

Barometer

2023

SjoerdPanhuysen&FrederikdeVries

1

2Introduction

Ensuringlong-termviabilityandgivingequalimportancetoshort-termeconomicgainatthefarmlevelarebothintegraltofoster

sustainabilityinthecoffeesector.

3

Introduction

Thecoffeesectorholdsanabundanceofknowledge,intelligence,enthusiasm,and

economicresourcestopotentiallytacklethemostpressingissuesitfaces.Wefind

ourselvesinatransitionalphasewherethecurrentdiscourseoncoffeesustainabilityisaddressingprofoundissuesfortheindustry.Questionsregardingobviousgapstoreachlivingincomes,adaptationandmitigationofincreasingclimatechangeimpacts,andtheexpansionofconsumerdemandforsustainablecoffeeaskourattention.Yet,evenwhenweconsiderthegenuinesuccessesachievedthusfar,theircumulativeimpactfallsshortofaddressingthefullspectrumofchallengesconfrontingthesector.Itisevidentthat

sustainabilitycannotberegardedasanultimatedestinationthatwillonedaybeachievedinthecoffeeindustry.Rather,thefocusonsustainabilityshouldnotbeviewedinisolationbutasawaytoupholdhumanrightsandcurtailecologicaldegradation,socialinjustice,andeconomicinstability.

Aswelooktowardsthefuture,2030standsasthenewhorizonfordelivery,replacing

thepreviouslysettargetof2020,whichpassedwithoutmuchnotice.Onceagain,an

opportunityforthecoffeesectortotransformtheoryintoactionandmakesubstantial

progresstowardsasustainableandequitablefuture.Governments,companies,andcivilsocietycontinuetoembraceinitiativesgearedtowards“sectortransformation”-curbingtropicaldeforestation,respectinghumanrights,andmitigatingtheimpactsofclimate

change.Theircommitmenttocollaborativeeffortsholdsthepromiseofachievingtan-giblesocio-economicandenvironmentalsolutionsonasignificantscale.

Meanwhile,thenormsgoverninginternationalbusinesspracticesareundergoinga

transformation.TheEuropeanUnionisleadingaglobalshiftwithgroundbreakinglegis-lationrequiringduediligenceonhumanrightsandenvironmentalimpactsincommoditysupplychains,exemplifiedbytheEURegulationonDeforestation(EUDR).Thismarksabroadertrendintraditionalconsumingmarkets,asgovernmentsseektoinfluencethe

ethicalandenvironmentaldimensionsofcoffeeproduction,trade,andconsumption.Themagnitudeofthemandatoryrequirementsexpectedinthecoffeeindustryissignificant,anditisclearthatmanycoffeecompaniesareill-equippedtohandlethistransformation.Amidstthegrandclaimsofsustainabilityandrosypromisesofaprosperousfuturein

coffeeagriculture,theharshrealityfacedbycoffeeproducersismarkedbyprice

volatilityandrisingproductioncostsduetohigherpricesforfertilizersandlabor.Coupledwithrampantinflationandtheprofoundconsequencesofarapidlychangingclimateinthemostvulnerableorigins,thecoffeesectorfindsitselfimmersedinastateofcrisis.

Totransitiontowardsamoresustainablecoffeesector,wemustengageinsubstantiveactivitiesthatgobeyondhighlightingfarm-levelproductionpractices.Itiscrucialto

recognizetheinterconnectednessbetweenglobalizationofproduction,naturalresourcedepletion,andtheexploitationofmarginalizedandimpoverishedcommunities.While

4

thesector’stotaleconomicvaluehassignificantlyincreased,thebenefitsseemtobe

disproportionatelyconcentratedinEuropeandNorthAmerica.Thislackofeconomic

retentionisjeopardizingthesustainabilityofthecoffeevaluechain.Toaddressthis,thedebatemustconfronttradeinequities,particularlythedisconnectbetweenmarketpric-esandproductioncosts.Businessesneedtodemonstrategreaterwillingnesstocom-pensatesmall-scalefarmersforsustainablepracticesbyofferingpricesthataccountforsocialandenvironmentalcostsandbyinvestinginlong-termtradingrelationships.

The2023editionoftheCoffeeBarometeraimstoincreaseunderstandingofthescale,depthsandcomplexityofthemainsustainabilitydiscussions,byweighingtheevidence,debunkingrhetoric,andrevealingwhatisgoingonatsectorlevel.Bydoingsothereportestablishesadirectconnectionwiththeevaluationofcorporatesustainabilitystrategies,aspresentedinthenewCoffeeBrewIndexonourwebsite:

Thisreportisstructuredaroundfourcentralchallenges:

Part1.Theconcentrationofcoffeeproductioninalimitednumberofcountries,coupledwithpricedynamicsthatfailtoensurelong-termstabilityforsmall-scalecoffeefarm-ers,andevolvingconsumerexpectations.

Part2.Theimportanceofensuringthatcoffeeincomecontributestothewell-being,andlivelihoodsofmillionsoffarmersinAfrica,Asia,andLatinAmerica.Toflourish,thesefarmersshouldbeabletogeneratealivingincome,makingtheirfarmseconomically

viableandecologicallysustainable.

Part3.Anexaminationofthesustainabilitypoliciesandstrategiesinplaceatthetopelevencoffeeroasters,alongwithacriticalassessmentoftheroleandcontributionofeachroaster.

Part4.Exploringtheexpandingscalesofsustainabilityandmandatoryframeworks,particularlythecombinationofEUlegislationcoveringdeforestation-freeproduction,humanrightsduediligence,andreporting.

Byconnectingtheseissuesintheconclusion,wefosteramorecomprehensiveunder-standingofthemultifacetedchallengesfacedbythecoffeesector.Onlythroughsuchintrospectionandcriticalanalysiscanwepavethewayformeaningfulchangeandworktowardsbuildingacoffeeindustrythatistrulysustainable,just,andequitable.

2

Coffeetrade5

Thecoffeeindustry’spursuitofaffordablegreencoffeeoften

disregardsvitalaspectslike

sustainableproductionandtradepractices.

2

6Coffeetrade

Introduction

Overthepasttwodecades,theglobaldemandforcoffeehasshownanupwardtrajec-tory,resultinginaconsistentexpansionofproductionandexports.Accordingtothe

InternationalCoffeeOrganization(ICO,2023b),worldwidecoffeeconsumptionsur-

passed168.5millionbagsduringthe2021-2022period.Thewell-establishedmarketsofEurope,Japan,andNorthAmericaaccountedformorethanhalfofthisglobalcoffeeconsumption.Inthesemarketstheaveragepercapitacoffeeconsumptionstandsat7kg,instarkcontrastwiththeglobalfigureofamere2kg.Asconsumerpreferences

evolve,thestrongdemandforcoffeeispresentingopportunitiesandchallengesforproducers,exporters,roasters,andretailers.Sincethecoffeemarketisquitecomplexandopaque,mostconsumershaveabsolutelynoideawheretheircoffeecomesfrom,whoproducedit,oriftheproducergotafairprice.

Coffeeprice

Startingfromearly2021andcontinuingthroughlate2022,thepriceofcoffeewit-

nessedasteadyrise,culminatingintheICOindicatorCpricereachingaten-yearhighofUS244cents/lbinFebruary2022.1Thisupwardtrajectorycanbeattributedtovariousfactors,includingadverseweatherconditionssuchasasuddenfrostthatimpactedkeycoffee-growingregionsinBrazilinJuly2021,leadingtoincreasedshippingcontainer

costs,andtheInternationalCoffeeOrganizationreducingtheglobal2020/21cof-

feesurplustoa22-yearlowinearly2022(ICO,2023b).However,inrecentmonths,

theglobalmarketpriceofcoffeehasexperiencedasignificantdecline,reachingan

18-monthlowofUS145cents/lbinJanuary2023,andnowhoveringaroundUS180

cents/lb.Meanwhile,thecostofproducingcoffeehasbeensteadilyincreasing,primar-ilydrivenbyrisinglaborcostsandtheincreasingpricesofinputssuchasfertilizersandpesticides.Inrecentyears,inflationarypressureandfluctuationsinexchangeratesareaddingtothisupwardtrend.

Theglobalpriceofcoffeeisdeterminedbasedonthesupplyanddemanddynamicswithintheglobalmarket.ArabicacoffeesareprimarilytradedontheNewYorkStockExchange,whileRobustacoffeesaretradedontheLondonStockExchange.These

Figure1.AverageArabicaandRobustaprice7

5

4

3

2

PRCUS$/kg

1

0

Arabica

Robusta

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

marketsoperatethroughtwomainmechanisms:currentorphysicalmarketsand

futurecontracts.Theissueisthatmostmarketactivityisnottradingcoffeethatexiststoday,butcoffeefutures.Futurescontractsareessentiallyagreementstopurchase

asetamountofcoffee(37,500pounds)ataspecificpricewhenthecontractexpires.Thismechanicallowsend-buyers(likelarge-scaleroasters)tobuyfutureshipmentsofbeanswhenthepriceislowiftheyexpectthepricetoriseinthefuturewhentheyneedthosebeans.Italsoallowsinvestorsandspeculatorstobuyfutureslow,thensellhighdowntheroad,leadingtogreaterliquidityinthemarket.Thissystemiswell-established

andacceptedaroundtheworldasawaytodeterminethepriceofcoffee.Unfortunately,producerscanget‘trapped’bytheCmarketprice,meaningitbecomesthefinalpricefortheircoffee,ratherthanthebaselineprice.

TheCpricediscoverymechanisminthemarketdistinguishesrelativelylittlebetweencharacteristicsofqualityandorigin-specifictraits.Attheconsumers’endofthe

spectrum,theretailpriceofroastedandgroundcoffeeseemstoevolveindependentlyfromthegreen(unroasted)coffeeCprice.Whileretailpricestendtofollowthepeaks

8

intheCprice,theydonotundergoequivalentdownwardadjustmentsduringperiodsoflowCprices.ThisasymmetricpricetransmissionmeansthatduringtroughsintheC

price,retailpricesforroastedcoffeeremainhighonsupermarketshelves.Also,USretailconsumptionmarketdataconfirmsthis:roastedcoffeewitnessedanaverageprice

increaseof98%from1982to2018,whereastheCpriceexperiencedadeclineof27%.(NewForesight,2021).

Coffeeproduction

Despitecoffeebeingcultivatedinover50countriesworldwide,theglobalmarketis

heavilyreliantonthebulkcoffeesuppliesfromjustafewcountries.In2022,Brazil

alonewasresponsibleforastaggering40%oftheworld’scoffeeproduction,whileViet-namhasbecometheuncontestedsecondlargestproducer,contributing20%.Addition-ally,justthreecountries—Colombia,Indonesia,andHonduras—contributetoaquarterofglobalcoffeeoutput.Theexportshareoftheother45countrieshassignificantly

declinedincomparisontothetop5producers,mostnotablyinCentralAmericaand

WestandEastAfrica,whichhavebecomelessinfluentialininternationalcoffeetrade.Thisconcentrationofproductionhasbeendrivenbytheindustries’desiretoleverageeconomiesofscale,particularlycrucialinlow-marginbusinesseswherecostefficiencyisparamount.

Thisshiftindynamicshassubstantialimplications.Nationswithlowerproduction

levelsoftendependheavilyoncoffeeexportsasacrucialeconomicpillar,suchasGDPgrowth,ruralemployment,taxrevenue,andexportearnings.Abroadbasisalsocontrib-utestoarichvarietyofflavorsandqualities.Furthermore,nurturingadiverserangeofcoffeeoriginscouldpotentiallyserveasapivotalfactorinsafeguardingthelong-termsustainabilityandresilienceofthecoffeesupplychain,especiallyinlightofthepro-

jectedimpactsofclimatechangeandlossofbiodiversity.

Coffeeconsumption

Europeisthelargestcoffeeconsumermarketaccountingfor2.54milliontonsofcoffeein2022(EU27),equalto24%ofthetotalworldconsumptionofcoffee.TheUSissecondat16%,anequivalentof1.66milliontonsin2022.Brazil,knownasthelargestproducerandexporterofcoffee,isthethirdlargestconsumermarketintheworldconsum-

ing1.36milliontonsofcoffee,or13%oftotalworldconsumption.Notably,Europe’sconsumptionlevelsin2022returnedtopre-pandemiclevels,matchingthefiguresrecordedin2018.ThegrowthrateinEuroperemainedmodestatjust0.1%year-on-

Figure2A:Globalgreencoffeetrade2022

Production/Export

Consumption/Import

Africa

CentralAmerica

SouthAmerica

AsiaandPacific

11%

12%

48%

29%

8%3%

15%

25%

18%

31%

Africa

CentralAmerica

SouthAmerica

9

AsiaandPacific

NorthAmerica

Europe

Figure2B:OriginsofgreencoffeeimportsEU27-2022

7,3%

Uganda

Ethiopia,Tanzania,

Africa

Kenya,C?ted’Ivoire,Cameroon

5,3%

Honduras

Nicaragua,Guatemala,Mexico,CostaRica,ElSalvador

CentralAmerica

35,3%

Brazil

SouthAmerica

Colombia

Peru

22,8%

AsiaandPacific

Vietnam

Indonesia,India,PapuaNew

Guinea,China

Othercountries

13%

10%

44%

33%

year.NorthAmericashowcasedasimilarrecoverypatterntoEurope,withconsumptionsurpassingpre-pandemiclevelsin2022.Theregion’sconsumptiondemonstrateda

year-on-yeargrowthrateof1.3%in2022.Incontrast,coffeeconsumptionintheAsiaPacificregionexperiencedayear-on-yeargrowthrateof3.1%.

Whilethemajorityofconsumersinestablishedmarketspurchasetheircoffeefrom

10

supermarketsforhomeconsumption,retaildynamicsarerapidlychanging.Consum-ersareincreasinglywillingtopayapremiumforconvenienceanduniqueexperiences,gravitatingtowardssingle-serveoptionslikeNespressocapsules,KeurigK-Cuppods,andready-to-drinkcoffeebeverages.By2020,morethan40%ofUSconsumers

ownedasingle-cupcoffeebrewingsystem.In2022,coffeepodsaccountedfor16%oftheEU27marketintermsofvolume,reflectingtheirsignificantpresenceinthecoffeeindustry.Whileotherformats(likeroastandground)dominatethemarket,itisworthnotingthatcoffeepodscontributetoasubstantialportionoftotalretailsales,repre-senting40%invaluetermswithintheEU27region(ECF,2023).

Conventionalcoffeeaccountsfor70%ofworldconsumptionleavingalargeshareofworldproductionwithlimitedtraceabilityandeaseofsubstitutionforroasterstootherorigincountries(TFCLI,2020).Whilethereseemstobeagrowingawarenessofandconcernaboutsustainabilityamongconsumers(Eurobarometer,2020),theglobal

marketshareofmore“sustainableoptions”remainslimited.Amongtheidentifiedbar-riersareaninformationasymmetrybetweenconsumersandproducers,higherprices,thedominanceofestablishedconsumptionroutines,informationoverload,andlack

oftransparencyandtrust(TerlauandHirsch,2015).Asacredibilityattribute,sustain-abilityisnotperceivableperse.Consequently,consumershavetolookforcuesthatindicatethesustainabilityperformanceofaproductorbrand.

Sustainabilitystandards

Toovercomethebarrierstosustainableconsumption,VoluntarySustainabilityStan-

dards(VSS)standoutasthetooltoincreasetransparencyandtrustinsustainability-relatedproductattributesandtofostersustainableconsumptionbehavior(FernandesMartinsetal.,2022).Well-knownexamplesofVSSinthecoffeesectorinclude

Fairtrade,RainforestAllianceandtheOrganiccertification,allofwhichpromotebetterconditionsincoffeeproductionpractices.Theybringthefunctionofcoordinatingandregulatingthesustainabilitycharacteristicsofglobalcoffeeproductiontothefore.

Third-partyauditingand,increasingly,theuseoftechnologies,suchassatelliteimagesandremotesensinginthedeforestationspace,contributestomonitoringandenforcingcompliance(HeldtandBeskeJanssen,2023).However,quantifyingtheeffectivenessandimpactofVSSremainscomplexanddebated(Rubio-Jovel,2022).Therearedeeplyrootedstructuralproblemsthatcanonlybesolvedwiththeinvolvementofallrelevantpublicandprivateactors,aswellasmandatoryrules.

Figure3.OverviewmarketshareVSS2017/2019/2021

560

192

770

307

923

293

160

412

420

370

11

252

257

558

230

394

670

438

846

365

859

5901.084

6581.235

536

2.365

1.6071.623

594

732

285

310

312

400

450

460

2017

2019

2021

x1000MT

Certi?ed/veri?edactuallysoldpart

Totalcerti?ed/

veri?edproduced

Figuresarenotadjustedfordoubleortriplecerti?cation

Inthelastdecade,voluntarystandardshavebeenverysuccessfulinincreasingthe

volumeofcertifiedcoffeeatthefarmlevel.Inthe2020-22period,approximately55%ofglobalcoffeeproductionwascertified,butthisfiguredoesnotaccountforcasesofmultipleverificationsorcertifications.Despitethisimpressivepercentage,thedirect

benefitstofarmers,suchaspricepremiumsandaccesstonewmarkets,arecon-

strainedbytheindustry’sabilitytoabsorbthetotalvolumeofcertifiedcoffee.Thisisacriticalissue,asin2021,lessthan26%ofcoffeewaspurchasedbytheindustry.Inotherwords,theother74%ofthesustainablecoffeeavailablewasmarketedasconventionalcoffee.Consequently,certifiedproducers,whohavemadeupfrontinvestmentsto

12

complywithstandards,sufferareductioninprofitability.Thissituationdiminishestheirfinancialcapacityandunderminestheirmotivationtoinvestincontinuousimprovementpractices.Toovercomethesechallenges,comprehensiveactionisneededtoproperlymarkettheavailablevolumesandensurethatcertifiedcoffeereceivestherecognitionandsupportitdeserves.

3

Resilientlivelihoods13

Coffeefarmersconstantlyanalyzetheiroptions,managerisks,

andmakedecisions,prioritizing

improvedwell-being,fosteringstability,andcreatingbetterfutureprospects.

3

14Resilientlivelihoods

Introduction

Acrosstheworld,coffeeproductionhastraditionallyprovidedtheagriculturalmainstayformillionsofpeoplelivinginthetropicaluplandareas.Coffeeiscultivatedonapproxi-mately12.5millionfarmsworldwide,primarilymanagedbysmall-scalefarmerswhoworkonjustafewhectaresofland.Infact,95%ofcoffeefarmsarenolargerthan5

hectares,with84%spanninglessthan2hectares.Coffeeproducersoftenhavelimitedeconomicalternatives,leadingmanycountriestoheavilyrelyoncoffeefortheirexportearnings.However,overthepasttwodecades,lowandvolatilecoffeepriceshavehadadevastatingimpactonfarmingcommunities.Thiscontextisparticularlyrelevanttoproducerswhoarelocatedincountrieswhichcontributeto15%ofglobalvolumes(seefigure2b).

Numerousstudieshaveshedlightontheirprevalentinequalitywithinthesecoffeevaluechains(Utrilla-Catalanetal.,2022).Thespecificsituationsincoffee-producingcoun-triesvarywidely,buttwocommonfactorsloomoverthefutureofthecoffeeproduction.

Firstly,coffeefarmerscontinuetograpplewithpovertyandprecariouslivingconditions.Secondly,thereisanurgentneedtoadapttoshiftingclimatepatterns,coupledwiththeimperativetoaddressthesector’scarbonemissions.

Livingincome

Livingincomeisfinallygettingtractiononthesector’ssustainabilityagenda.The

conceptoflivingincomehasbecomewidelyrecognizedandinfluential,withmany

actorsinthecoffeeindustryembracingit.Anetworkoforganizationsandinitiativeshasemerged,amplifyingthemomentumbehindthepursuitoflivingincome.Withinthecoffeesector,platformssuchastheGlobalCoffeePlatform(GCP),theSustainableCoffeeChallenge(SCC),andtheCoffeePublicPrivateTaskForce(CPPTF)haveplacedlivingincomeasatoppriority.2TheLivingIncomeCommunityofPracticefrequentlyhighlightsexamplesofhowthecoffeesectorisacentralsubjectfordiscussion,infor-mationsharing,andcapacitybuilding.

Figure4.Countryoverviewlivingincome-coffeeincome15

Adaptedfrom:Cordes,K.andSagan,M.(2021).ResponsibleCoffeeSourcing:

TowardsaLivingIncomeforProducers.p.18.ColumbiaCenteronSustainableInvestment

Vietnam

Colombia

Indonesia

Honduras

Ethiopia

Uganda

Guatemala

$0$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,000$5,000$6,000$7,000$8,000

Brazil

India

Peru

$0$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,000$5,000$6,000$7,000$8,000

US$perhousehold(peryear)

Estimatedaveragecoffeeincome

Rangeoflivingincomeestimates

Whilethecoffeesectorisincreasinglyemphasizingtheimportanceoflivingincomeandlivingwagebenchmarks,asignificantgappersistsintermsofcomprehensivedataforeachcoffee-producingregion.Severalin-depthstudiesareregularlyconductedatthecountrylevel,however,acomprehensiveanalysisencompassingallcountriesisnotablyabsent(ICO,2021;ILO,2020).AninsightfulrecentanalysisconductedbyColumbiaUni-versity(Kaitlinetal.,2021)addressesthisgapbyexaminingthenetannualincomefromcoffeefarmingwithlivingincomebenchmarksintencountries,basedoncoffeepricesfromtheperiod2018-2019.Itisimportanttonotethatthesecomparisonsinfigure4

16

shouldbeseenasroughestimatesofhowanaverageproducermightfarewithineachcountry.3Themainfindingsofthiscomparisoninclude:

·In8outofthe10countries,theaveragecoffeeincomeisatorbelowthepovertyline.

·Brazilstandsoutastheonlycountrywheretheaverageproducerearnsanetcoffeeincomethatsurpassescertainlivingincomeestimates.

·Ugandahasthelargestgaptolivingincome,withanaveragecoffeeproducerearning$88peryearfromcoffee,incontrasttolivingincomereferencevaluesrangingfromover$2,000tonearly$6,000.

Livingwage

Coffeeisaverylabor-intensivecrop,withthemajorityofworkdedicatedtohand-

harvesting;ameticulousprocessaimedatpreservingthequalityofthebeans.Withinthecoffeesector,therearevarioustasksthataregender-specific,leadingtoanover-representationofwomeninrolessuchasharvestingandpost-harvestprocessing,

includingdryingandhand-sortingthebeans.Despitethesignificantnumberofworkersemployedinthecoffeeindustry(e.g.,2.6millioninEthiopia,1.5millioninIndonesia,and1.44millioninVietnam),theissueofprovidinglivingwagesforworkersremainslargelyoverlooked.Availableresearchindicatesthatfarmworkersinthecoffeeindustryreceivewagesthatdonotadequatelymeettheirfundamentalneeds(PindeoCaro,2020).Thefindingsfurtherrevealthatthesewagesnotonlyfallbelowthenationalaverages,butalsofallbelowtheaveragewagespaidinthebroaderagriculturalsector.

Monthlywagesforcoffeeworkersareinfluencedbythenumberofhoursworked.Firstly,manyworkersinthecoffeeindustryarehiredascasuallaboronadailyortaskbasis,

whichdoesnotcoverafullmonthofemployment.Secondly,aconsiderableportionofworkersareengagedinharvesting,wherepaymentisbasedonthequantityofcoffeeharvestedperday(Verité,2022).Femaleworkerscomprisenearlyhalfoftotalemploy-mentinthesector,yettheyearnsignificantlylessthantheirmalecounterparts(ILO,

2020).Thisdisparitycanbeattributed,inpart,totherelativelyhighnumberofwomenworkingasunpaidfamilyworkers.

Climatechange

ArecentanalysisconductedbytheStockholmEnvironmentInstitute(SEI)paintsadirepicture,revealingthatclimatechangehasthepotentialtoslashglobalArabicacof-

feeproductionbyastaggering45.2%,whileglobalRobustaproductioncouldsuffera

Figure5.Theoreticalhouseholdnetincomefora1hafarm

Inspiredby:Hochberg,A.andBare,M.(2021).Strategiestoenhancecoffeefarmers’

Price(US$/kg)

$1,375$2,750$4,125$5,500

$1,250$2,500$3,750$5,000

$1,032$2,063$3,094$4,125

$688$1,375$2,063$2,750

17

incomes:RainforestAllianceexperienceandresearch.p.7.RainforestAlliance.

$4.40

$4.00

$3.20

>

500100015002000

$2.20

Yield(kg/

ha)

23.5%decline(DzeboandAdams,2022).Withclimatechange,significantportionsoflandusedforcoffeecultivationareanticipatedtobecomeunsuitableby2050,particu-larlyforArabicacoffee.Effortstoensuresustainablecoffeeproductionmustconsiderthepreservationandconservationofforestsandotherecosystems,recognizingtheirecologicalsignificanceandthepotentialnegativeconsequencesoftheirconversionintocoffeeplantations.

Achievingadelicatebalancebetweenmeetingtheglobaldemandforcoffeeandpreserv-ingbiodiversitywhileupholdingandreinforcingessentialecosystemservicesrequires

meticulousplanning.Thisinvolvesimplementingrobustconservationstrategiesand

promotingthesector-wideadoptionofresponsibleland-usepractices,suchasregen-erativeagricultureandagroforestry.Keycoffee-producingregionswilllikelysignificantlyreduce.Forinstance,inBrazilsMinasGeraisandS?oPauloStates,regionsthataccountforasignificantportionofthecountry’scoffeeoutput,theproportionoflandsuitable

forcoffeefarmingcouldplummetfrom70-75%toamere20-25%.InGoiás,theviabil-ityofcoffeecultivationmayceasealtogether.Otherrenownedcoffee-growingregions

willalsofacetheimminentthreatofasharpreductioninsuitablecoffee-growingareas.WarmingtemperaturesandshiftingrainfallcouldsharplyreducetheproductioninCostaRica,ElSalvador,Guatemala,Honduras,Nicaragua,Mexico,andVietnam(Dzeboand

Adams,2022).Althoughcoffeeproductioncouldpotentiallyrelocatetootherelevationsinmanycountries,theexpansionofcoffeecultivationintopreviouslyuntouchedregionsposesasignificantthreattovitalecosystemsthatstorevastamountsofcarbonand

biodiversity,andassuchprovidevaluableservicesforlocalcommunitiesandhumanityatlarge.Innumerouscountrieswherecoffeeisgrown,asubstantialportionoftheprojectedsuitablelandforcoffeeproductionin2050iscu