PetroleumEconomyandNationalSecurityUNIT7Section1Starting-outSection2TextLearning

TextAOilDependency:

TheRealThreattoNationalSecuritySection3ExercisesTextBControversyonStrategicPetroleumReserveTextOrganizationPart1(Para.1-?)______________________Part2(Para.?-?)______________________…?Howmanypartscanyoudividethepassageinto?TextaPart1(Para.1-3) Part3(Para.4-7)

Part4(para.8-11)Part5(para.12-15)TextOrganizationTexta (Introduction) (Problem) (Response) (Solution)Part1(Para.1-3)(Introduction)OilPriceshasbeenamajorcontributortoeconomicslowdown.Part3(Para.4-7)(Problem)UnchangedU.S.strategicthinkingleadstothequestionaboutguaranteeingtheoilresources.TextOrganizationTextaPart4(para.8-111)(Response)

SeriesofreportsidentifiedoildependenceasthethreattonationalsecurityandsuggestedalteringU.S.strategicvisionPart5(para.12-15)(Solution)

U.S.mustgetoffoilbyusingeverygallonasefficientlyaspossible.TextOrganizationTextaInformationAnalysis(Para.1)--Economicdownturnhasusuallybeenprecededbyasuddensteepincreaseofoilprices.--Three.The1974-75recession,thecollapseofthedot-combubblein2000,thetankingeconomyin2007.TextaWhatistherelationshipbetweeneconomicdownturnandrisingoilprices?Howmanyexamplesaregiventoillustratetherelationship?InformationAnalysis(Para.2)--AistoBwhat/asCistoD.Risingoilpricesistoeconomicdownturnwhat/asexternallyimposedtaxtogeopoliticalconcerns..TextaWhydoestheauthormention“externallyimposedtax”and“geopoliticalconcerns”?Isthereanexceptiontothisrule/pattern?--Yes,thecurrentroundofoilpriceincreaseswillonlyhaveatransitoryimpactoneconomicgrowth;itwillnotderailtherestofeconomy.(Para.3)InformationAnalysisWhatdoestheauthorimplybyreferringtothe11aircraftcarrierbattlegroupandthe$649billiondefenseappropriationsbill?TextaWhatdominatesthecurrentU.S.strategicthinking?--AmindsetforgedduringWWII.--TheU.S.isstilldominatedbythewartimemindset,aimingtoensureitsmilitarypower.(Para.4)InformationAnalysis(Para.5)--Responsesrelyingonmarketforces,ratherthanrelyingonmilitarymightandmilitary-derivedinfluence.TextaWhatmightbethemoreeffectiveresponsetosupplydisruptionofoilinthe21stcentury?WhatistheU.S.currentstrategicvision?(Para.6)--AnyinterferencewiththePersianGulfwillberegardedasanassaultontheU.Sinterestsandwillberepelledbyanymeans,includingmilitary.InformationAnalysis(Para.7)--Everybodyusesoil,whyme?CanadahasbecomeU.S.majorforeignoilsupplier;China,IndiaandEuropearemoredependentontheMiddleEastoil;“everybodyusesoil,whyme?”TextaWhyisthereadifferentvoiceabouttheguaranteeingofthePersianGulfoilsupply?Whatisironic?(“Ironicallyenough,aseriesofreports…”)(Para.8)--Areportfromamilitary-supportednon-profitthink-tanksuggestedalteringU.S.strategicvision,i.e.notresortingtomilitaryforcestorespondtothesupplyshortage.InformationAnalysis(Para.9)--Dependenceonoil.(OR:inefficientuseandoverrelianceonoil.)TextaWhatmayposeathreattonationalsecurityaccordingtothe2009report?Whatdidthe2009reportcallfor?(Para.10)--Dramaticreductioninmilitaryinthemilitaryuseoffossilfuels(byswitchingtosolarpowerandbatteriestopowerfieldinstallationsinsteadofusingdieselgenerators).InformationAnalysis(Para.11)--ClimatechangemayaddtothemissionburdenoftheU.S.military,andtheU.S.shoulddiversifyenergysourcesandmoveawayfromfossilfuelswherepossible.TextaWhatdidthe2007climatechangereportwarnandsuggest?WhatisthenewcareerofformerViceAdmiralDennisMcGinn?Howdoesheevaluatehisnewcareer?(Para.12)--Promotingenergyefficiencyandclean-energytechnologies.--Heseeshisnewcareerasanextensionofhisworkonlong-termstrategicpolicy.InformationAnalysis(Para.13)--Itshouldstopdependingonenergycomingfromunstablecountriesfirstandthenbeeconomicallystrong.TextaHowcanacountryhaveaviablenationalstrategy?WhatarethecriticismlevelledattheslowdrawdownoftheU.S.troopsinIraqandAfghanistan?(Para.14)--StationingofU.S.troopstherecostsahugeamountofmoney($119billionnextyear)andtheU.Sistakingthehitstodefendtheglobaloilsupply.InformationAnalysis(Para.15)--Toworkouthigherfuelefficiencystandardsanduseeverygallonasefficientlyaspossible.TextaWhatisthewayfortheU.S.togetoffoildependence?1.(Para.2)In2000,oilhit…theeconomytanked.2.(Para.2)Whiletherewere…geopoliticalconcerns.4.(Para.4)Yetlittleofthat…guaranteedshipments.5.(Para.4)Howelsetoexplain…morethanone?6.(Para.6)WiththeIranianhostage…militaryforces.”7.(Para.12)FormerViceAdmiral…clean-energytechnology.LanguagePointsTexta3.(Para.3)Butthistimearound…therestoftheyears.PreviewTasksTextLearning(A)1.(Para.2)In2000,oilhashitthethenunheardofpriceof$40abarrel,andwithinmonthsthedot-combubblecollapsed.Crudespikesover$100abarrelin2007,andafewmonthslatertheeconomytanked.2000年，石油價格達到了前所未聞的每桶40美元，而幾個月之內，互聯網泡沫破裂了。2007年，原油價格激增到每桶100美元，幾個月后，經濟潰敗。TextLearning(A)2.(Para.2)Whiletherewereusuallyotherfactorsdrivingthosedownturns–in2007-09itwasthesubprimemortgagemessandresultingfinancialcrisisforinstance–risingoilhasalwaysbeenseenasamajorcontributortoeconomicslowdowns,theequivalentofanexternallyimposedtaxthatwascauseforgeopoliticalconcerns.盡管通常其它因素（如2007-2009年的次貸危機及由此引發的金融危機）也會造成經濟滑坡，但石油價格的上漲一直被視為是造成經濟放緩/下滑的主要因素，情況類似外部征稅是造成地緣政治擔憂的原因一樣。TextLearning(A)3.(Para.3)Butthistimearound,economicprognosticatorsaresayingthatthe$100-a-barreloilpricesofthepasttwomonths–aslongastheydon’tspikeintothestratosphere–willonlyhaveatransitoryimpactongrowth,whichisprojectedtobeabove3percentfortherestofthisyear.然而，這一次，經濟預言家們說，過去兩個月每桶100美元的石油價格，只要不漲到天價，將只會對經濟增長有暫時的影響，在今年的后幾個月中，經濟增長預計高于3%。TextLearning(A)4.(Para.4)YetlittleofthatrealityinfluencedU.S.strategicthinking,whichisstilldominatedbyamindsetforgedduringWorldWarIIwhenglobaleconomicandmilitarypowerdefendedoncontrollingaccesstosourcesofcrude,andnavalstrategywaspredicatedonprotectingthesealanesthatguaranteedshipments.然而，這種新的現實幾乎影響不到美國的戰略思維，他們的思維方式還限定在二戰時期。那時，全球的經濟和軍事實力依賴于控制原油供應來源，海軍戰略及保護能夠保證載貨量的海上航道為依據。TextLearning(A)5.(Para.4)Howelsetoexplainthe11aircraftcarrierbattlegroupsinthe$649billiondefenseappropriationsbillthatissailingthroughtheHouseoftheRepresentativesthisweek,whennooneelseintheworldhasmorethanone?不然的話，該怎樣解釋在本周駛向美國眾議院的那項6490億的國防撥款議案中的那11艘航空母艦戰斗群呢？實際情況是世界上的其他任何一個國家最多都只有一艘。TextLearning(A)6.(Para.7)WiththeIranianhostagecrisisdominatingtheheadlines,Carterdeclaredthatany“attemptbyanoutsideforcetogaincontrolofthePersianGulfregionwillberegardedasanassaultonthevitalinterestoftheUnitedStatesofAmerica,andsuchanassaultwillberepelledbyanymeansnecessary,includingmilitaryforce.”在伊朗人質危機占據了媒體頭條的背景下，卡特宣布“外部勢力攫取控制波斯灣地區的任何企圖，都將被看作是對美國根本利益的進攻。對于這種進攻，美國將使用包括軍事力量在內的任何必要手段，予以擊退。”TextLearning(A)7.(Para.12)FormerViceAdmiralDennisMcGinn,whorecentlyretiredfromtheNavy,servedontheadvisoryboardthatissuedbothreportsandrecentlytookoverthehelmoftheAmericanCouncilonRenewableEnergy,whichbringstogethernon-fossil-fuelenergyproducersandFortune500companiestopromoteenergyefficiencyandclean-energytechnologies.最近剛剛退役的前海軍中將丹尼斯?麥克金曾在發布那兩項報告的顧問委員會任職，并且最近剛剛接管了美國可再生能源委員會。可再生能源委員會將非礦物燃料能源生產者和“財富500強”的公司聯合起來共同提升能源效率、提高清潔能源技術。ThemeDiscussionDiscussthefollowingtheme-relatedquestions.1.WhatdoyouthinkChinashoulddotorespondtothecurrentsituationoftheglobaloilmarket,sinceChinaisbothanimporterandaproducerofoil?

2.WhatmightbecyoursuggestionsonChina’sstrategicpolicyofthedevelopmentofshalegasinChina?

WhatdoyouthinkoftheconclusionsintheChinashalegasreportreleasedbytheUniversityofColumbia?TextAThemeDiscussionTextA日前，美國哥倫比亞大學發布中國頁巖氣政策研究報告，結合中國頁巖氣開發的現狀與問題提出了未來促進發展的政策建議，該研究受到美國能源部化石能源局資助。報告得出六點結論：第一，未來幾年中國不會實現頁巖氣的大規模開采，之后低速增長和高速發展兩種情況都有可能發生；第二，頁巖氣發展的主要障礙包括：開采成本高，針對國有公司的激勵薄弱，競爭力缺乏，對國外公司的限制和可利用的數據有限等；第三，政府政策對確定未來中國頁巖氣的發展將發揮關鍵作用；第四，中國頁巖氣開采對環境從高度正面影響到嚴重負面影響都有可能；第五，在中長期內水資源供應會成為一些地區的限制因素之一；第六，美國和中國政府對于頁巖氣有著共同的利益。TheUniversityofColumbiarecentlyreleasedaChinashalegasreport,whichwaspresentedtotheannualUS-ChinaOilandGasIndustryForumonSeptember25,2014.資料textlearning(B)TranslationAssignment1.(Para.2)Themajorityof…physicalshortages.2.(Para.5)Absentconcretemarketfailures,…welfare.3.(Para.6)Thismaynotbedone…saidTaylor.4.(Para.11)Boththelawand…declarationofwar.5.(Para.15)TheRandreport…toameliorate.”6.(Para.16)Policymakershave…wouldbetaken.Unit7Text(B)1.(Para.2)Themajorityof…physicalshortages.大多數政治領袖和關注此事的公民則把該儲備看作是用于防止能源真正短缺的燃料來源。Translation2.(Para.5)Absentconcretemarketfailures,…welfare.沒有實際上的市場失靈/市場失效，政府對石油市場的干預不可能提高經濟福利。Text(B)3.(Para.6)Thismaynotbedone…saidTaylor.獲取利潤最大化未必是出于考慮顧客（的利益），但這將對顧客產生積極影響，這是因為當市場對商品有需求時，擁有存貨的個人會將商品投入市場。Translation4.(Para.11)Boththelawand…declarationofwar.法律和政策的制定者們都把SPR作為緊急響應的最后手段。法律上對總統做出授權銷售SPR判定所滿足的要求在概念上接近于宣戰。Text(B)5.(Para.15)TheRandreport…toameliorate.蘭德報告指出，關于何時使用SPR，尚缺乏公開、明確的政策，“如果市場參與者擔心嚴重的供應中斷，有可能會引發恐慌性囤積，造成的這一局面則具備了啟用SPR的條件。”Translation6.Para.16)Policymakershave…wouldbetaken.政策制定者不愿提前透露什么情況下使用戰略石油儲備，因為根據當前法律，這意味著要提前規定國家石油供應中斷緊急狀態的構成和隨之應采取的相應行動。6.ILanguageTask1GlossaryMatch1e2h3f4g5a6b7d8cExercises1rationale2articulate3inexorably4repel5barrel

6assault7proposition8ambiguous9blockade10mandatedTask2WordsorExpressionsCheckExercisesIIITranslationTask1TranslatethefollowingsentencesintoChinese.1.盡管通常其它因素（如2007-2009年的次貸危機及由此引發的金融危機）也會造成經濟滑坡，但石油價格的上漲一直被視為是造成經濟放緩/下滑的主要因素，情況類似外部征稅是造成地緣