1、10 Slides to make you think about COVID-19: IndiaWorldpanel Division | KantarIndia August 2020How the ten slides made us think about COVID-19All of the initial cases of COVID-19 were in the big cities. As people who had migrated to the cities started returning home we saw a growth in rural cases. By

2、 mid-July rural case contribution rose by up to 10%. What happens in the coming couple of months could very well determine FMCG figures in the country as a whole.We witnessed a healthy 7% growth in FMCG volumes between March 21st and July 15th. Beverages, particularly Cold Beverages, missed the peak

3、 season which means that manufacturers need to depend on non-seasonal periods to try for a turnaround. Can the coming festive season bring back some cheer?With people largely staying indoors, Grooming categories were hard hit. We saw signs of a turnaround when lockdown eased in early June. However,

4、it is unlikely that well see Grooming reach 2019 levels this year.Mapped against Googles Mobility Index at Grocery & Chemists outlets, we see total occasions increase postlockdown.Asmobilitydecreaseswithlockdownannouncements, occasions increase, proving a stocking up phenomenon. We also see unlockin

5、g leads to greater stablility and consumers seem now more confident than before.1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.The highest frequency buyers have reduced their occasions, which means they must be moving towards larger packs to satisfy their requirements. Knowing these buyers and how 10. they are changing will be

6、very important over the next sixmonths.Staying on the theme of occasions, de-averaging becomes essential because high frequency households are hijacking all the averages. New buyer segments are emerging, based on changing purchase behaviour, and its important that you get to know them.Finally, value

7、 consciousness is definitely on the rise. Again, there will be clusters of buyers who will still move towards premium brands, and they need to be identified. However, for many categories people have started to favour cheaper options. But as costlier products like Sanitisers and Handwashes enter FMCG

8、, overall value is still going to rise.Very little has changed in the last few weeks with regards to category stories. It appears the first half of the pandemic had a lasting impact on how FMCG is shaping up. One positive point is that about 88% of volumes are currently not at risk.However, at a bra

9、nd level, 54% of brands are operating in a scenario where either they or their categories are declining. We also expect intense competition in the next few months as most brands try to retain the gains theyve made during this time, and as local players start to become more competitive.Yes, FMCG ecom

10、merce sales in India are making positive strides. One big learning is that shoppers are purchasing more categories this way. If brand owners and e-tailers play it right, COVID-19 could create a major boom for the FMCG online sector.210% of all cases come from Rural areas8063474637363119141414126543B

11、HHPJ&KJHORCGUKUPRJMPAPWBKLKNTNHARPJGJMHBarring Bihar and Himachal, Urban areas share of cases is still significantly higher than its households %Rural share of all COVID-19 cases in India84The government data released only provides figures at a district level. To calculate the proportion ofRural cas

12、es we considered urbanisation data from the 2011 Census. Districts with an Urban population of under 20% are considered Rural for this exercise. Telangana is missing because itwas formed after the 2011 Census, complicating the Urban-Rural Classification.All India: 9.6%3290%87%76%75%86%77%75%80%80%72

13、%71%63%53%49%41%62%59%52%73% of Rural households in the state*10 Slides to Make You Think COVID-19, India 30th July, 2020 Source: ICMR Data compiled by Data Aggregators* Census 2011 Data3Post lockdown volumes see healthy growthBarring Beverages, all other sectors are growing well6,627,1Post lockdown

14、(Mn tons)201920207.2%0,321,024,90,410,351,125,30,37Personal CareHousehold CareFoodsBeveragesPost lockdown: Sectoral volumes(Mn tons)11.2%10.5%7.8%-8.8%10 Slides to Make You Think COVID-19, India 30th July, 2020Source: Worldpanel Division, Kantar IndiaData based on Urban Weekly Panel from March 4th w

15、eek to July 2nd week4Grooming shows early signs of recovery as people start venturing outThe gap between 2019 and 2020 penetration levels decline significantly in June10 Slides to Make You Think COVID-19, India 30th July, 2020Source: Worldpanel Division, Kantar IndiaData based on Urban Weekly Panel

16、from March 4th week to June 4th week1514141616MarchAprilMayJune5336454157516049MarchAprilMayJuneHair Oils(% Penetration)2416212031283225MarchAprilMayJuneHair Colours(% Penetration)982020 Pen (%)Talcum Powder(% Penetration)2019 Pen (%)225As mobility improves, total occasions are improving fastLockdow

17、n causes more uncertain and wobbly trends; while unlocking leads to greater stablilityAll IndiaMaharashtraTamil NaduDelhiGMI Grocery & Pharmacy* vs. Total Occasions of FMCG Purchases10 Slides to Make You Think COVID-19, India 30th July, 2020 Source: Google LLC “Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Rep

18、orts” Date 22.07.2020*GMI is Googles Mobility Index. Google gives Daily Mobility Indices versus same week day year agoWeekly Data Source: Worldpanel Division, Kantar India; Urban Data6High frequency households are shopping less often, affecting the averageA good percentage of households are increasi

19、ng their frequency, too get to know them!10 Slides to Make You Think COVID-19, India 30th July, 2020Source: Worldpanel Division, Kantar India Data based on Urban Weekly Panel from March 4th week to June 4th week2010030405060DLPHRJUPWBBHJHGHORMHGJMPCGTNKNKLAP% of households buying FMCG at least 3 tim

20、es every week(March Week 4 to June Week 4)20192020-1.9-4.9-1.5-1.1-5.8-6.0-1.7-1.911.4-4.5-4.7-11-7.9-3.41.92.16.2Generally infrequentbuyers; but big shiftAlmost the entire state has moved to buying at least once every twoweeksSimilar to Orissa; buyers becoming more frequentChange in average frequen

21、cy7Light Buyers(Avg. purchase of under 3 KGs a week)Medium Buyers(Avg. purchase of 3 to 5 KGs a week)Heavy Buyers(Avg. purchase of 5 to 8 KGs a week)Super Heavy(Avg. purchase of over 8 KGs a week)% Households41%31%17%10%Consumption (KGs)39 to 2950 to 5766 to 91104 to 162Spend (Rs)4597 to 37495667 to

22、 67776616 to 98198268 to 12872Categories bought19 to 1620.3 to 19.720.8 to 21.321.6 to 21.7Light buyers, representing 41% of Urban shoppers, are worst hitDe-averaging is crucial as heavier buyers hijack the averages due to the sheer size of their purchase10 Slides to Make You Think COVID-19, India 3

23、0th July, 2020Source: Worldpanel Division, Kantar India Data based on Urban Weekly Panel from March 4th week to June 4th week2019 to 20208The first five weeks of lockdown determined the direction of trends till now97% of volume is either positive or is trended to become positive in the next few week

24、s10 Slides to Make You Think COVID-19, India 30th July, 2020Source: Worldpanel Division, Kantar India Data based on Urban Weekly Panel from March 4th week to June 4th weekHandwash Hand Sanitisers Floor Cleaners Biscuits ChyawanprashEach weeks cumulated volume is growing post lockdownAtta Shampoo Cof

25、fee KetchupsDetergent BarsLost volume in the first weeks of lockdown, but have gained continuously sinceToothpaste Talcum PowderBottled Soft Drinks ChocolatesFabric SoftenersStill on the negative side, but have been on a recovery trend for the last few weeksHair Oils Deodorants Glucose PowdersVolume

26、s were lost, and have stayed down with no major upward movementAir Fresheners Jams Depilatories Basmati RiceON THE LINEVolumes have recovered, but one bad month can bring them back to losses3%Volume share6%80%11%1%IN DEMANDRECOVEREDRECOVERINGAT RISKAverage graph shape943% of brands are losing volume

27、, and 37% are present in losing categoriesGet ready for intense competition as half of all brands attempt to keep their gainsCategoryBrand46%26%17%11%WINNERSLOSERS% of BrandsMarch-May 2020 vs. 2019 Based on Volume growthDOMINATECategory growth & Brand growthCONSOLIDATECategory loss & Brand growthREV

28、AMPCategory loss & Brand lossREJUVENATECategory growth & Brand loss10 Slides to Make You Think COVID-19, India 30th July, 2020Source: Worldpanel Division, Kantar India Data based on Urban Weekly Panel from March 4th week to June 4th week10Households buying via ecommerce grew by over 50% due to COVID

29、-19 Buyers shift from buying one or two categories through ecommerce to buying most of their monthly groceries online10 Slides to Make You Think COVID-19, India 30th July, 2020Source: Worldpanel Division, Kantar India Data based on Urban Weekly Panel from March 4th week to June 4th week50%20192020Online FMCG household growth post-COVID20192020Categories bought by at least 15% of online buyersToilet SoapsHair WashDet. PowderBiscuitsHair OilCategories bought by at least 15% of new online buyers (lockdown)Edible OilsToilet SoapsTeaDet