1、5THE REAL ECONOMY IN THE LONG RUN長期長期中的實際經濟中的實際經濟Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.長期長期(LR)：所有的經濟變量都有充足的時間：所有的經濟變量都有充足的時間作出調整。例如，超越一個合同時期。作出調整。例如，超越一個合同時期。 實際（實際（real）：沒有貨幣，或不考慮貨幣的影）：沒有貨幣，或不考慮貨幣的影響。響。 屬于古典理論。屬于古典理論。 考慮的是一個趨勢考慮的是一個趨勢Chapter 12Harcourt, Inc. items

2、and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.A countrys standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services.一國的生活水平決定于它生產物品一國的生活水平決定于它生產物品與勞務的能力。與勞務的能力。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uEconomic Growth: represents the expansion of a coun

3、trys potential GDP or national output.uPotential GDP :the level of GDP attained when all firms are producing at capacity.uProduction Possibility Frontier (PPF) shifts outward. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.In the United States over the past century, average i

4、ncome as measured by real GDP per person has grown by about 2 percent per year.在美國過去一個世紀里，按人均實際在美國過去一個世紀里，按人均實際GDP衡量衡量的平均收入每年增長的平均收入每年增長2左右。左右。1978-2006:我國我國GDP年均實際增長率為年均實際增長率為9.6%2012:我國實際我國實際GDP增長增長7.8%Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Copyright2004 South-Weste

5、rn 國別國別 時期時期 期初人均期初人均GDP 期末人均期末人均GDP 增長率（每年）增長率（每年） 日本日本 18902008 1540美元美元 35200美元美元 2.71 巴西巴西 19002008 779 10070 2.40 墨西哥墨西哥 19002008 1159 14270 2.35 德國德國 18702008 2184 35940 2.05 加拿大加拿大 18702008 2375 36220 1.99 中國中國 19002008 716 6020 1.99 美國美國 18702008 4007 46970 1.80 阿根廷阿根廷 19002008 2293 14020 1.

6、69 英國英國 18702008 4080 36130 1.47 印度印度 19002008 675 2960 1.38 印度尼西亞印度尼西亞 19002008 891 3830 1.36巴基斯坦巴基斯坦 19002008 737 2700 1.21 孟加拉國孟加拉國 19002008 623 1440 0.78Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uThe Growth Rate of GDP during a particular year.uFor longer periods of

7、time, we can use average annual growth rate.uFor longer periods of time, we get approximately the same answer by averaging growth rate for each year.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.According to the rule of 70, if some variable grows at a rate of x percent per y

8、ear, then that variable doubles in approximately 70/x years.根據根據70規則，規則，如果某個變量每年按如果某個變量每年按x%增長，增長，那么在將近那么在將近70/x年以后該變量翻一番。年以后該變量翻一番。Number of years to double=70/Growth RateHarcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u$5,000 invested at 7 percent interest per year, will dou

9、ble in size in 10 years 70/ 7 = 10Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u每年利率為每年利率為7的的5000美元投資在美元投資在10年后年后的價值翻一番。的價值翻一番。70/ 7 = 10Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u20世紀90年代之前，印度的收入每50年翻一番，而韓國每10年翻一番。平均來說，一個印度人的收入將是他祖父的兩倍，而一個韓國人的收

10、入將是他祖父的32倍我無法想象一個人看到這些數字時不會認為其代表了巨大的可能性。印度政府是否能采取某些行動使印度的經濟像印度尼西亞和埃及的經濟那樣增長？如果能，那么應該采取哪些政策呢？如果不能，那么到底是哪些印度的特性使其無法這么做呢？這些問題中間所包含的人類福利含義本身就是非常重要的：一旦我們開始思考這些問題，我們就發現很難再去思考其他問題u_羅伯特盧卡斯（Lucas, R.）在劍橋大學所作的“馬歇爾講座”上的講話Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uAnnual growth rate

11、s that seem small become large when compounded for many years. uCompounding refers to the accumulation of a growth rate over a period of time.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u看起來很小的增長率在許多年的看起來很小的增長率在許多年的復利計算之后變得很大。復利計算之后變得很大。u復利計算復利計算 是指在一個時期內的增是指在一個時期內的增長率的累積。

12、長率的累積。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uTips:uSmall difference in growth rate are important.uWhy do growth rate matter?uThe benefit of an earlier start Example: Standard of living in China and Japan.uThe rich get richer Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items cop

13、yright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. 可以用柯布道格拉斯生產函數說明從生產率和要素投入增長兩個角度分析經濟增長的研究線路。 Q=A.L K，其中Q為產量，L、K分別代表勞動和資本投入量，A為技術狀況， 、 分別代表勞動和資本在生產過程中的產出彈性。(+ =1) 進行代數變換可得到： Y/Y= （L/L）+ （K/K）+A/A 它表明國民收入增長率可被分解為三個部分： 1、勞動要素投入量的增長率； 2、資本要素投入量的增長率； 3、全

14、要素生產率（total factor productivity，簡稱TFP）Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uThe Factors of Production 生產要素生產要素Physical capital 物質資本物質資本Human capital 人力資本人力資本Natural resources 自然資源自然資源Technological knowledge 技術知識技術知識Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 20

15、01 by Harcourt, Inc.uPhysical Capitalis a produced factor of production. It is an input into the production process that in the past was an output from the production process.is the stock of equipment and structures that are used to produce goods and services. Tools used to build or repair automobil

16、es. Tools used to build furniture. Office buildings, schools, etc.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u物質資本物質資本是生產出來的生產要素。是生產出來的生產要素。 它是生產過程的投入，也是過去生產過程的它是生產過程的投入，也是過去生產過程的產出。產出。是用于生產物品與勞務的設備與建筑物的是用于生產物品與勞務的設備與建筑物的存量。存量。 用于生產或修理汽車的工具。用于生產或修理汽車的工具。 用于生產家具的工具。用于生產家具的

17、工具。 辦公樓，學校等等辦公樓，學校等等Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uHuman Capitalthe economists term for the knowledge and skills that workers acquire through education, training, and experience Like physical capital, human capital raises a nations ability to produce goods an

18、d services.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u人力資本人力資本經濟學家用來指工人通過教育、培訓和經經濟學家用來指工人通過教育、培訓和經驗而獲得的知識和技能的一個術語驗而獲得的知識和技能的一個術語。 和物質資本一樣，人力資本提高一個國家生和物質資本一樣，人力資本提高一個國家生產物品與勞務的能力。產物品與勞務的能力。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uNatural Res

19、ourcesinputs used in production that are provided by nature, such as land, rivers, and mineral deposits. Renewable resources include trees and forests. Nonrenewable resources include petroleum and coal.can be important but are not necessary for an economy to be highly productive in producing goods a

20、nd services.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u自然資源自然資源由自然界提供的用于生產物品與勞務的投由自然界提供的用于生產物品與勞務的投入，如土地、河流和礦藏。入，如土地、河流和礦藏。 可再生資源包括樹木和森林。可再生資源包括樹木和森林。 不可再生資源包括石油和煤炭。不可再生資源包括石油和煤炭。可能是重要的，但它們并不是一個經濟體可能是重要的，但它們并不是一個經濟體生產物品與勞務中生產率高的必要條件。生產物品與勞務中生產率高的必要條件。Harcourt, Inc. items

21、 and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uTechnological Knowledgesocietys understanding of the best ways to produce goods and services. Human capital refers to the resources expended transmitting this understanding to the labor force.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by

22、 Harcourt, Inc.u技術知識技術知識社會對生產物品與勞務的最好方法的社會對生產物品與勞務的最好方法的理解。理解。 人力資本是指把這些理解傳遞給勞動人力資本是指把這些理解傳遞給勞動力的資源消耗。力的資源消耗。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Economists often use a production function to describe the relationship between the quantity of inputs used in productio

23、n and the quantity of output from production.經濟學家經常用生產函數來描述用于生產經濟學家經常用生產函數來描述用于生產的投入量和生產的產出量之間的關系。的投入量和生產的產出量之間的關系。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Y = A F(L, K, H, N) Y = quantity of outputA = available production technologyL = quantity of laborK = quantity of

24、physical capitalH = quantity of human capitalN = quantity of natural resourcesF( ) is a function that shows how the inputs are combined. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Y = A F(L, K, H, N)Y = A F(L, K, H, N) Y Y = = 產出量產出量A A = = 可得到的生產技術可得到的生產技術L L = = 勞動量勞動量K

25、 K = = 物質資本量物質資本量H H = = 人力資本量人力資本量N N = = 自然資源量自然資源量F( )F( ) 是一個表示投入如何結合起來以生產是一個表示投入如何結合起來以生產 產出的函數。產出的函數。 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uA production function has constant returns to scale if, for any positive number x, 如果給定任何一個正數如果給定任何一個正數x，下式成立，則該生下式成立，則該

26、生產函數的規模收益不變。產函數的規模收益不變。xY = A F(xL, xK, xH, xN)uThat is, a doubling of all inputs causes the amount of output to double as well. 這就是說，投入翻番就會使產出翻番。這就是說，投入翻番就會使產出翻番。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uProduction functions with constant returns to scale have an inter

27、esting implication.uSetting x = 1/L,Y/ L = A F(1, K/ L, H/ L, N/ L)Where:Y/L = output per workerK/L = physical capital per workerH/L = human capital per workerN/L = natural resources per workerHarcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u規模收益不變的生產函數有一個令人感規模收益不變的生產函數有一個令人感興

28、趣的含義。興趣的含義。u設設 x = 1/L,Y/ L = A F(1, K/ L, H/ L, N/ L)這里這里:Y/L = 每個工人的產量每個工人的產量K/L = 每個工人的物質資本每個工人的物質資本H/L = 每個工人的人力資本每個工人的人力資本N/L = 每個工人的自然資源每個工人的自然資源Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.The preceding equation says that productivity (Y/L) depends on physical capita

29、l per worker (K/L), human capital per worker (H/L), and natural resources per worker (N/L), as well as the state of technology, (A).Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.這個公式說明，生產率這個公式說明，生產率(Y/L)取決于每個取決于每個工人的物質資本工人的物質資本 (K/L)，每個工人的人力每個工人的人力資本資本 (H/L)，每個工人的自然資源，每個工人的自

30、然資源， (N/L)，以及技術狀況以及技術狀況 (A).Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uAs the stock of capital rises, the extra output produced from an additional unit of capital falls; this property is called diminishing returns.uBecause of diminishing returns, an increase in the savin

31、g rate leads to higher growth only for a while.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u隨著資本存量的增加，從增加的一個單隨著資本存量的增加，從增加的一個單位資本中生產額外產量減少。這種特性位資本中生產額外產量減少。這種特性被稱為被稱為收益遞減。收益遞減。u因為收益遞減，儲蓄率增加所引起的更因為收益遞減，儲蓄率增加所引起的更高的增長只是暫時的。高的增長只是暫時的。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items cop

32、yright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.K/LQ/LVSteady state at V in the long runHarcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.K/LQ/LVVTechnological change moves the steady state from V to V Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uWhich is more important

33、for economic growth: more capital or technological change?uTechnological change: The key to sustaining economic growth.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uTry to find the reasons for the rapid economic growth of China over past three decades.Harcourt, Inc. items a

34、nd derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uTwo factors: 1.The massive movement of workers from agriculture to manufacturing jobs. 2. The transformation of its economy into a market system.uWhich factor is more important? Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.a

35、.中國經濟學家的估計勞動力24%人力資本24%勞動力轉移21%未解釋3%物質資本28%b.世界銀行的估計勞動力17%勞動力轉移16%物質資本37%未解釋30% Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Governments can do many things to raise productivity and living standards.政府可以做很多事情來提高生產政府可以做很多事情來提高生產率和生活水平。率和生活水平。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived

36、items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uGovernment Policies That Raise Productivity and Living StandardsEncourage saving and investment.Encourage investment from abroadEncourage education and training.Establish secure property rights and maintain political stability.Promote free trade.Promote researc

37、h and development.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u提高生產率和生活水平的政府政策提高生產率和生活水平的政府政策鼓勵儲蓄和投資鼓勵儲蓄和投資鼓勵來自國外的投資鼓勵來自國外的投資鼓勵教育和培訓鼓勵教育和培訓建立完善的產權保護機制和政治穩定建立完善的產權保護機制和政治穩定促進自由貿易促進自由貿易促進研究與開發促進研究與開發Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.One w

38、ay to raise future productivity is to invest more current resources in the production of capital.提高未來生產率的一種方法就是把更提高未來生產率的一種方法就是把更多現期資源投資于資本的生產。多現期資源投資于資本的生產。(a) Growth Rate 19601991(b) Investment 19601991South KoreaSingaporeJapanIsraelCanadaBrazilWest GermanyMexicoUnited KingdomNigeriaUnited StatesI

39、ndiaBangladeshChileRwandaSouth KoreaSingaporeJapanIsraelCanadaBrazilWest GermanyMexicoUnited KingdomNigeriaUnited StatesIndiaBangladeshChileRwandaInvestment (percent of GDP)Growth Rate (percent)01234567010203040Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.(a) 1960-1991增長率增長

40、率(b) 1960-1991投資投資 韓國韓國 新加坡新加坡 日本日本以色列以色列 加拿大加拿大 巴西巴西 西德西德 墨西哥墨西哥 英國英國尼日利亞尼日利亞 美國美國 印度印度 孟加拉國孟加拉國智利智利盧旺達盧旺達增長率增長率 (百分比百分比)01234567South KoreaSingaporeJapanIsraelCanadaBrazilWest GermanyMexicoUnited KingdomNigeriaUnited StatesIndiaBangladeshChileRwanda投資投資 (GDP的的)010203040圖圖1. 增長與投資增長與投資Harcourt, Inc

41、. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uAs the stock of capital rises, the extra output produced from an additional unit of capital falls; this property is called diminishing returns.uBecause of diminishing returns, an increase in the saving rate leads to higher growth only for a

42、while.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u隨著資本存量的增加，從增加的一個單隨著資本存量的增加，從增加的一個單位資本中生產額外產量減少。這種特性位資本中生產額外產量減少。這種特性被稱為被稱為收益遞減。收益遞減。u因為收益遞減，儲蓄率增加所引起的更因為收益遞減，儲蓄率增加所引起的更高的增長只是暫時的。高的增長只是暫時的。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.In the long

43、run, the higher saving rate leads to a higher level of productivity and income, but not to higher growth in these areas.在長期中，高儲蓄率引起高水平的生產率在長期中，高儲蓄率引起高水平的生產率和收入，但在這些變量中并沒有高增長。和收入，但在這些變量中并沒有高增長。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.The catch-up effect refers to the con

44、dition that, other things being equal, it is easier for a country to grow fast if it starts out relatively poor.追趕效應追趕效應是指在其他條件相同的情況下，如果是指在其他條件相同的情況下，如果一國開始時較窮，它要迅速增長是容易的。一國開始時較窮，它要迅速增長是容易的。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Governments can increase capital accumu

45、lation and long-term economic growth by encouraging investment from foreign sources.政府可以通過鼓勵來自國外的投資來政府可以通過鼓勵來自國外的投資來增加資本積累和長期的經濟增長。增加資本積累和長期的經濟增長。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Investment from abroad takes several forms:uForeign Direct InvestmentuCapital inves

46、tment owned and operated by a foreign entity.uForeign Portfolio InvestmentuInvestments financed with foreign money but operated by domestic residents.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.來自國外的投資采取幾種形式：來自國外的投資采取幾種形式：u外國直接投資外國直接投資u由外國實體擁有并經營的資本投資。由外國實體擁有并經營的資本投資。u外國有價

47、證券投資外國有價證券投資u用外國貨幣籌資，但由國內居民經營的用外國貨幣籌資，但由國內居民經營的投資。投資。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uFor a countrys long-run growth, education is at least as important as investment in physical capital.uIn the United States, each year of schooling raises a persons wage on ave

48、rage by about 10 percent.uThus, one way the government can enhance the standard of living is to provide schools and encourage the population to take advantage of them.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u教育對一個國家的長期經濟成功至少教育對一個國家的長期經濟成功至少與物質資本投資同樣重要。與物質資本投資同樣重要。u在美國，

49、每一年正規教育使人的平均收入在美國，每一年正規教育使人的平均收入增加增加10左右。左右。u因此，政府可以提高生活水平的一種方法因此，政府可以提高生活水平的一種方法是提供良好的學校，并鼓勵人們利用這些是提供良好的學校，并鼓勵人們利用這些學校。學校。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.An educated person might generate new ideas about how best to produce goods and services, which in turn, m

50、ight enter societys pool of knowledge and provide an external benefit to others.一個受過教育的人會產生一些有關如何最好一個受過教育的人會產生一些有關如何最好地生產物品與勞務的新思想，這些新思想進地生產物品與勞務的新思想，這些新思想進入社會知識寶庫，并給他人帶來入社會知識寶庫，并給他人帶來外部效益。外部效益。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.One problem facing some poor countr

51、ies is the brain drain-the emigration of many of the most highly educated workers to rich countries.一些貧窮國家面臨的一個問題是一些貧窮國家面臨的一個問題是人才人才外流外流許多受過最高教育的工人移許多受過最高教育的工人移民到富國。民到富國。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uProperty rights refer to the ability of people to exercise

52、 authority over the resources they own.uAn economy-wide respect for property rights is an important prerequisite for the price system to work.uIt is necessary for investors to feel that their investments are secure.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u產權是指人們對其擁有的資源

53、行使權產權是指人們對其擁有的資源行使權力的能力。力的能力。u價格制度發生作用的一個重要前提是經濟價格制度發生作用的一個重要前提是經濟中廣泛尊重產權。中廣泛尊重產權。u讓投資者感到他們的投資安全是必要的。讓投資者感到他們的投資安全是必要的。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uWhat explain rapid economic growth in Bostwana?uThe most important reason is the pro- growth policy of its go

54、vernment.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uTrade is, in some ways, a type of technology.uA country that eliminates trade restrictions will experience the same kind of economic growth that would occur after a major technological advance.Harcourt, Inc. items and d

55、erived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u在某些方面，貿易是一種技術。在某些方面，貿易是一種技術。u取消了貿易限制的國家將有重大技取消了貿易限制的國家將有重大技術進步以后出現的同類經濟增長。術進步以后出現的同類經濟增長。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uSome countries engage in . . . . . inward-orientated trade policies, avoiding interaction wit

56、h other countries. . . . outward-orientated trade policies, encouraging interaction with other countries.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u一些國家實施一些國家實施 . . . . . 內向型內向型 貿易政策貿易政策, 避免與世界其避免與世界其他國家相互交易。他國家相互交易。 . . . 外向型外向型 貿易政策，鼓勵與其他國貿易政策，鼓勵與其他國家相互交易。家相互交易。Harcour

57、t, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uThe advance of technological knowledge has led to higher standards of living.uMost technological advance comes from private research by firms and individual inventors.uGovernment can encourage the development of new technologies throug

58、h research grants, tax breaks, and the patent system.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u技術知識的進步帶來更高的生活水平。技術知識的進步帶來更高的生活水平。u大多數技術進步來自企業和個人所進行的大多數技術進步來自企業和個人所進行的私人研究。私人研究。u政府通過補貼、減稅和專利制度來鼓勵新政府通過補貼、減稅和專利制度來鼓勵新技術的開發。技術的開發。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyri

59、ght 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uThe causes of the changes in productivity growth are elusive.uThe slowdown cannot be traced to the factors of production that are most easily measured.uMany economists attribute the slowdown and speedup in economic growth to changes in technology and the creation of new id

60、eas.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u生產率增長變化的原因是捉摸不定的。生產率增長變化的原因是捉摸不定的。u這種生產率放慢不能追溯到那些最容易這種生產率放慢不能追溯到那些最容易衡量的生產要素。衡量的生產要素。u許多經濟學家把經濟增長快慢歸因于技許多經濟學家把經濟增長快慢歸因于技術變革和新思想的創造。術變革和新思想的創造。Growth Rate(percentper year)1.01.52.02.53.03.54.0187018901890191019101930193019501