1、未來自我的心理英語演講稿At every stage f ur lives we make decisins that will prfundly influence the lives f the peple were ging t becme, and then when we becme thse peple, were nt always thrilled with the decisins we made. S yung peple pay gd mney t get tatts remved that teenagers paid gd mney t get. Middle-age

2、d peple rushed t divrce peple wh yung adults rushed t marry. lder adults wrk hard t lse what middle-aged adults wrked hard t gain. n and n and n. The questin is, as a psychlgist, that fascinates me is, why d we make decisins that ur future selves s ften regret?在我們生命的每個階段，我們都會做出一些決定，這些決定會深刻影響未來我們自己的生

3、活，當我們成為未來的自己時，我們并不總是對過去做過的決定感到高興。所以年輕人花很多錢洗去當還是青少年時花了很多錢做上的紋身。中年人急著跟年輕時迫不及待想結婚的人離婚。老年人很努力的揮霍著作為中年人時不停工作所賺的錢。如此沒完沒了。作為一個心理學家，讓我感興趣的問題是，為什么我們會做出讓自己將來常常后悔的決定?Nw, I think ne f the reasns - Ill try t cnvince yu tday is that we have a fundamental miscnceptin abut the pwer f time. Every ne f yu knws that t

4、he rate f change slws ver the human lifespan, that yur children seem t change by the minute but yur parents seem t change by the year. But what is the name f this magical pint in life where change suddenly ges frm a gallp t a crawl? Is it teenage years? Is it middle age? Is it ld age? The answer, it

5、 turns ut, fr mst peple, is nw, wherever nw happens t be. What I want t cnvince yu tday is that all f us are walking arund with an illusin, an illusin that histry, ur persnal histry, has just cme t an end, that we have just recently becme the peple that we were always meant t be and will be fr the r

6、est f ur lives.我認為其中一個原因而我今天想說服你們的就是我們對時間的力量有個基本的錯誤概念。你們每個人都知道變化的速度隨著人的年齡增長不斷放慢，孩子們好像每分鐘都有變化，而父母們的變化則要慢得多。那么生命中這個讓變化突然間從飛速變得緩慢的神奇轉折點應該叫什么呢?是青少年時期嗎?是中年時期嗎?是老年階段嗎?其實對大多數人來說，答案是，現在，無論現在發生在什么。今天我想讓大家明白的是，我們所有人都在圍繞著一種錯覺生活，這種錯覺就是，我們每個人的過去，都已經結束了，我們已經成為了我們應該成為的那種人，在余下的生命中也都會如此。Let me give yu sme data t bac

7、k up that claim. S heres a study f change in peples persnal values ver time. Heres three values. Everybdy here hlds all f them, but yu prbably knw that as yu grw, as yu age, the balance f these values shifts. S hw des it d s? Well, we asked thusands f peple. We asked half f them t predict fr us hw m

8、uch their values wuld change in the net 10 years, and the thers t tell us hw much their values had changed in the last 10 years. And this enabled us t d a really interesting kind f analysis, because it allwed us t cmpare the predictins f peple, say, 18 years ld, t the reprts f peple wh were 28, and

9、t d that kind f analysis thrughut the lifespan.我想給你們展示一些數據來支持這個觀點。這是一項關于人們的個人價值觀隨時間變化的研究。這里有3種價值觀。每個人的生活都與這三個價值觀相關，但是你們可能知道，隨著你們慢慢長大，變老，這三個價值觀的平衡點會不斷變化。到底是怎么回事呢?我們詢問了數千人。我們讓他們當中一半的人預測了一下在未來某年中，他們的價值觀會發生多大的改變，讓另一半人告訴我們在過去的某年中，他們的價值觀發生了多大的變化。這項調查可以讓我們做一個很有趣的分析，因為它可以讓我們將大約18歲左右的人的預測同大約28歲左右的人的答案相比較，這項分

10、析可以貫穿人的一生。Heres what we fund. First f all, yu are right, change des slw dwn as we age, but secnd, yure wrng, because it desnt slw nearly as much as we think. At every age, frm 18 t 68 in ur data set, peple vastly underestimated hw much change they wuld eperience ver the net 10 years. We call this th

11、e end f histry illusin. T give yu an idea f the magnitude f this effect, yu can cnnect these tw lines, and what yu see here is that 18-year-lds anticipate changing nly as much as 50-year-lds actually d.這是我們的發現。首先，你們是對的，隨著我們年齡的增長，變化會減緩。第二，你們錯了，因為這種變化并不像我們想象的那么慢。在我們的數據庫從18歲到68歲的每一個年齡段中，人們大大的低估了在未來的某年他

12、們會經歷多少變化。我們把這叫做“歷史終止”錯覺。為了讓你們了解這種影響有多大， 你們可以把這兩條線連接起來，你們現在看到的是18歲的人群預期的改變僅僅和50歲的人群實際經歷的一樣。Nw its nt just values. Its all srts f ther things. Fr eample, persnality. Many f yu knw that psychlgists nw claim that there are five fundamental dimensins f persnality: neurticism, penness t eperience, agreeab

13、leness, etraversin, and cnscientiusness. Again, we asked peple hw much they epected t change ver the net 10 years, and als hw much they had changed ver the last 10 years, and what we fund, well, yure ging t get used t seeing this diagram ver and ver, because nce again the rate f change des slw as we

14、 age, but at every age, peple underestimate hw much their persnalities will change in the net decade.現在不僅僅是價值觀了。其他的方面都也有變化。比如說，人格。你們當中的很多人知道現在心理學家們認為人格可以分為五個基本維度：神經質性，經驗汲取度，協調性，外向性和道德感。回到原來的話題，我們問人們他們期待未來的某年中自己會有多大的變化，以及他們在過去的某年中發生了多少變化，我們發現了，你們會習慣不斷地看到這個圖表，因為又一次，變化速率隨著我們的年齡增長減慢了。但是在每一個年齡階段，人們都低估了在未

15、來的十年中他們的人格會發生多大的改變。And it isnt just ephemeral things like values and persnality. Yu can ask peple abut their likes and dislikes, their basic preferences. Fr eample, name yur best friend, yur favrite kind f vacatin, whats yur favrite hbby, whats yur favrite kind f music. Peple can name these things.

16、We ask half f them t tell us, D yu think that that will change ver the net 10 years? and half f them t tell us, Did that change ver the last 10 years? And what we find, well, yuve seen it twice nw, and here it is again: peple predict that the friend they have nw is the friend theyll have in 10 years

17、, the vacatin they mst enjy nw is the ne theyll enjy in 10 years, and yet, peple wh are 10 years lder all say, Eh, yu knw, thats really changed.而且不光是像價值觀和人格這樣的臨時性的特質。你們可以問問人們關于他們喜好和厭惡的事，他們基本的偏好。比如說，說出你比較好朋友的名字，你最喜歡什么樣的假期，你最大的愛好是什么，你最喜歡什么樣的音樂。人們可以說出這些事情。我們讓他們當中的一半人告訴我們，“你認為這在未來某年內會改變嗎?”讓另一半告訴我們，“這個在過

18、去十年內變化了嗎?”我們的發現是，嗯，這個圖你們已經看過2次了，再展示一次：人們推測他們現在某個單位的朋友在未來某年中還會是他們的朋友，他們喜歡的度假之地在未來某年內還會是他們喜歡的地方，然而，2021年長10歲的人都會說：“嗯，你知道，這確實不一樣了。”Des any f this matter? Is this just a frm f mis-predictin that desnt have cnsequences? N, it matters quite a bit, and Ill give yu an eample f why. It bedevils ur decisin-ma

19、king in imprtant ways. Bring t mind right nw fr yurself yur favrite musician tday and yur favrite musician 10 years ag. I put mine up n the screen t help yu alng. Nw we asked peple t predict fr us, t tell us hw much mney they wuld pay right nw t see their current favrite musician perfrm in cncert 10

20、 years frm nw, and n average, peple said they wuld pay 129 dllars fr that ticket. And yet, when we asked them hw much they wuld pay t see the persn wh was their favrite 10 years ag perfrm tday, they say nly 80 dllars. Nw, in a perfectly ratinal wrld, these shuld be the same number, but we verpay fr

21、the pprtunity t indulge ur current preferences because we verestimate their stability.這有什么關系嗎?這只是一種并不會有什么后果的錯誤的預測嗎?不，這有很大的關系，我會舉例告訴你們為什么。它在很多重要的方面困擾著我們做決定。現在想想你們此時此刻最喜歡的音樂人，還有某年前你們最喜歡的音樂人。我把我的答案放在大屏幕上作為提示。現在我們讓人們預測一下，告訴我們他們現在愿意付多少錢來參加他們現在最喜歡的音樂人從現在起某年后的音樂會，平均來講，人們會說他們會付129美元買票。然而，當我們問他們愿意付多少錢去看他們某年前

22、喜歡的人現在某個單位的演出，他們說只有80塊。那么，在一個完全理性的世界里，這兩個數字應該是相同的，但是我們為沉浸于當前喜好中的機會付了更多的錢，因為我們高估了它們的持久性。Why des this happen? Were nt entirely sure, but it prbably has t d with the ease f remembering versus the difficulty f imagining. Mst f us can remember wh we were 10 years ag, but we find it hard t imagine wh were

23、 ging t be, and then we mistakenly think that because its hard t imagine, its nt likely t happen. Srry, when peple say I cant imagine that, theyre usually talking abut their wn lack f imaginatin, and nt abut the unlikelihd f the event that theyre describing.為什么會發生這樣的變化呢?我們也不是很確定，不過這可能與記憶的消逝和想象的難度相關。我們中的大多數人都能記得某年前的我們是什么樣子，但是要想像我們會成為什么樣的人就困難了，然后我們會錯誤地認為因為很難想象，就不太可能會發生。很遺憾，當人們說“我可想象不出來”，他們通常是在表達他們缺乏想象力，而不是他們所描述的不可能發生的事情。The bttm line is, time is a pwerful frce. It transfrms ur preferences