Chapter4

Strategiclead-timemanagementThischapter：Exploresthe‘costoftime’andthedriversoftime-basedcompetition;shorteningproductlifecycles,customers’desireforreducedinventoriesandthedangersofbeingforecastdependentinanincreasinglyvolatilemarketplace.探討時間成本和時間競爭的驅動力；正在不斷縮短的產品生命周期，客戶減少庫存的要求，在動蕩的市場環境下過分依賴預測的種種風險。Examinestheconceptofleadtime,theorder-to-deliverycycle,itscomponentsandtheneedtoconsiderthewidercontextoftheorder–to-cashcycle.分析前置時間、訂單周期的概念及其構成要素，從更大范圍來考察訂貨變現周期。Looksathowthereductionofleadtimescanimpactonthegoalsoflogisticspipelinemanagement.研究縮短前置時間是如何影響物流渠道管理目標的。Outlinessomeofthewaysinwhichinadequatesystemsdesigncanlengthenleadtimesandengineercostratherthanvalueintothelogisticsprocess.概括了一些不恰當的系統設計方法，它們延長了前置時間，并增加了設計成本，卻對物流過程的增值貢獻不大。introducestheconceptofthelead-timegap,offeringanumberofsuggestionsforleadtime.介紹前置時間差的概念，提出一些縮短前置時間的建議。Compendium1.Time-basedcompetition2.Theconceptofleadtime3.Logisticspipelinemanagement4.Logisticsvalueengineering5.Thelead-timegap6.Summary1.Time-basedcompetition時間競爭

Timeismoney.AsfarascostisConcernedthereisAdirectrelationshipBetweenthelengthOfthelogisticspipelineAndtheinventorythatIslockedupinit.首先，就成本而言，物流渠道的長度與渠道中的存貨數量有直接的關系。Secondly,longleadtimesmeanaslowerresponsetocustomerrequirements.其次，過長的前置時間意味著對客戶需求反應的延遲。Customersinallmarkets,industrialorconsumer,areincreasinglytime-sensitive.Question1

Whatarethepressuresleadingtothegrowthoftime-sensitivemarkets?Customers’driveforforreducedinventoriesVolatilemarketmakingrelianceonforecastsDangerousShorteninglifeCyclesTime-sensitivemarket不斷縮短的產品生命周期客戶降低庫存的需求由于市場多變，過于依賴預測很危險

Theconceptoftheproductlifecycle:Formanyproducts,thereisarecognizablepatternofsalesfromlaunchthroughtofinaldecline.(1)Shorteninglifecycles許多產品從投入市場到最后淡出市場，其銷量遵循一個公認的模式。TheproductlifecycleSales(￡)introductiongrowthmaturitysaturationdeclinetime導入期成長期成熟期飽和期衰退期產品生命周期2.Customers’driveforreducedinventoryoneofthemostpronouncedphenomenaofrecentyearshasbeenthealmostuniversalmovebycompaniestoreducetheirinventories.這些年，一個最明顯的現象就是全球所有的企業都在著手降低它們的庫存。客戶降低庫存的需求Question1Whatisthedifferencebetweentraditionalandmodernwaystoservicecustomerswhorequirejust-in-timedeliveries?Manycompaniesstillthinkthattheonlywaytoservicecustomerswhorequirejust-in-timedeliveriesisforthem,thesupplier,tocarrytheinventoryinsteadofthecustomer.Insteadwhatisneededisforthesuppliertosubstituteresponsivenessforinventorywheneverpossible.許多公司仍然認為，給客戶提供及時配送服務的唯一方法，就是只能由供應商代替客戶持有庫存。其實作為供應商真正需要的是：在必要的時候用快速反應來代替大量的庫存。Question2Howtoachieveresponsiveness?Why?

Responsivenessessentiallyisachievedthroughtimecompressioninthesupplychain.

TimecompressionServiceenhancementCostreduction壓縮時間完善服務縮減成本Breakingfreeoftheclassicservice/costtrade-off打破傳統的服務、成本權衡關系3.Volatilemarketmakingreliance

onforecastsdangerous

QuestionWhat’sthecontinuingproblemformostorganizationsaccordingtotext?What’stherootcauseoftheseproblems?由于市場多變，過于依賴預測很危險Acontinuingproblemformostorganizationsistheinaccuracyofforecast.Whilstmanyforecastingerrorsaretheresultofinappropriateforecastingmethodologytherootcauseoftheseproblemsisthatforecasterrorincreasesasledtimeincreases.time+-ForecasterrorForecasterrorandplanninghorizons預測誤差和計劃水平2.TheconceptofleadtimeQuestion

What’sthemeaningofleadtimefromthecustomer’sviewpointandfromthesupplier’sperspectiverespectively?Fromthecustomers’viewpointTheelapsedtimefromordertodelivery.Fromthesuppliers’viewpointThetimeittakestoconvertanorderIntocash.從發出訂單到收到貨物的這段時間。從接受訂單到收回現金的時間(1)Theorder-to-deliverycycleCustomerPlacesorderOrderprocessingOrderentryOrderassemblyTransportOrderreceivedThecomponentsofordercycletime客戶訂單提交訂單錄入訂單處理訂單組貨運輸訂貨到達Totalordercyclewithvariability1.Ordercommunication2.Orderentryandprocessing3.Orderpickingorproduction5.Customerreceiving4.transportationtotal3Timerange1to5daysTimerange1to3days2Timerange1to9days53Timerange1to5days2Timerange1to3days5days25days15運輸訂單錄入及處理按單揀選或生產客戶接受訂貨前溝通訂單履行周期的變動程度Inthosesituationswhereordersarenotmetfromstockbutmayhavetobemanufactured,assembledorsourcedfromexternalvendors,thenclearlyleadtimeswillbeevenfurtherextendedwiththepossibilityofstillgreatervariationsintotalorder-to-deliverytime.Leadtimecomponent.OrderingreceptionleadtinePlanningleadtimeProcessingleadtimeMaterialsplanningandpurchaseleadtimesupplierleadtinetransportleadtineReceptionandinspectionleadtineAssemblyreleaseandorderpickingWaitingtimesProcessingtimesTransporttimetonextstage(e.g.toinventoryassembly)Dispatchpreparationtime(documents,packages)TransporttimetocustomerCommercialAndplanningLeadtimeMaterialsLeadtimesAssemblyLeadtimesDistributionLeadtimesInstallationLeadtimes商業和計劃前置時間原材料前置時間匯總前置時間配送前置時間安裝前置時間前置時間構成要素(2)Thecash-to-cashcycleQuestion

What’sthebasicconcernofanyorganization?

whatisruleofthumb?CumulativeLeadtime[procurementTopayment]RawmaterialstockSubassemblyproductionIntermediatestockProductassemblyFinishedstockatCentralwarehouseIn-transitRegionaldistributionCentralstockCustomerordercycle累積的前置時間（從采購到付款）Strategiclead-timemanagement

Thelongerthepipelinefromsourceofmaterialtothefinaluserthelessresponsivetochangesindemandthesystemwillbe.從原材料到最終使用者的渠道越長，系統就越缺乏對需求變動的應變能力Anapproximateruleofthumbsuggeststhattheamountofsafetystockinapipelinevarieswiththesquarefootofthepipelinelength.一個類似于“大拇指”的規則指出，安全庫存數量的多少取決于渠道長度的平方根。

3.logisticspipelinemanagementQuestion1

Howtocontrollogisticsleadtimessuccessfully?Thekeytothesuccessfulcontrolofthelogisticsleadtimeispipelinemanagement.成功控制物流前置時間的關鍵是實施物流渠道管理。Question2

Whatarethegoalsofthepipelinemanagement?ThegoalsofthepipelinemanagementgoalsLowercostsHigherqualityMoreflexibilityFasterresponsetime更低的成本更高的質量高強的靈活性更快的反應速度HowtoachievethesegoalsManagethesupplychainasanentityandseekingtoreducethepipelinelengthand/orcosttospeeduptheflowthroughthatpipeline.Tofindwaysinwhichtheratioofvalue-addedtocost-addedtimeinthepipelinecanbeimproved.將供應鏈作為一個整體進行管理，并縮短整個渠道的長度，同時（或者）加速物品在渠道中的流動。找到可以提高增值時間與成本增加時間比率的方法。Value-addingtime(time,placeandformutility)Cost-addingtime(promotion,storageandtransportcostandthetimecostofmoney)RawmaterialstockproductionFinishedstockIn-transitRegionalstockCustomerdeliveryCost-addedversusvalue-addedtime引起價值增加和成本增加的活動（時間、地點和形態效用）增值時間原材料庫存生產產成品庫存運輸區域庫存客戶配送Cost-addedversusvalue-addedtime

成本增加時間（促銷、倉儲和運輸成本及時間成本）Value-addingtimeRawmaterialstockproductionFinishedstockIn-transitRegionalstockCustomerdeliveryRawmaterialstockproductionFinishedstockIn-transitRegionalstockCustomerdeliveryCost-addingtimeReducingnon-value-addingtimeimprovesserviceandreducescost通過減少非增值時間來提高服務水平并降低成本3.LogisticsvalueengineeringManybusinesshaveinvestedheavilyinautomationinthefactorywiththeaimofreducingthroughputtimes.Howeveritisparadoxicalthatmanyofthosesamebusinessthathavespentmillionsofpoundsonautomationtospeedupthetimeittakestomanufactureaproductarethencontenttoletitsitinadistributioncentreorwarehouseforweekswaitingtobesold.Therequirementistolookacrossthedifferentstagesinthesupplychaintoseehowtimeasawholecanbereducedthroughreengineeringthewaythechainisstructured.

Example1:Planningcycle/manufacturingleadtimeExample2:ForecastingandorderingofsuppliersExample3:WarehousepickinganddistributionOnepointInsomanycasesitispossibletofindconsiderableOpportunityfortotallead-timereduction,oftenthroughSomeverysimplechangesinprocedure.4.Thelead-timegapQuestion1

Accordingtothetext,mostorganizationsfaceafundamentalproblem,whatisit?Thetimeittakestoprocure,makeanddeliverthefinishedproducttoacustomerislongerthanthetimethecustomerispreparedtowaitforit.Thisisthebasisofthelead-timegap.Thelead-timegapprocurementCustomer’sordercycledeliverymanufacturingLogisticsleadtimeThelead-timegapOrderfulfillment采購生產配送物流前置時間客戶訂貨周期前置時間差訂單履行Question2

What’sthecustomer’sordercycle?Thelengthoftimethatthecustomerispreparetowait,fromwhentheorderisplacedthroughtowhenthegoodsarereceived.

Thecompetitiveconditionsofthemarketaswellasthenatureoftheproductwillinfluencethecustomer’swillingnesstowait.Thefactorsthatinfluencethecustomer’swillingnesstowait:

Howtoclosethelead-timegap?shorteninglogisticsleadtimeMovethecustomer’sordercyclecloserbygainingearlierwarningofrequirementsthroughimprovedvisibilityofdemand.縮短物流前置時間通過提高需求的可見性，盡量把客戶訂貨周期調整到與早期得到的需求信息更接近。Question3

Allthelogisticsprocessescanbeviewedasanetworkofinter-linkedactivitiesthatcanbeoptimizedasawholebyfocusingontotalthroughputtime.Anyattempttomanagebyoptimizingindividualelementsoractivitiesintheprocesswillleadtoaless-than-optimalresultoverall.

所有的物流過程都能被看做是由各種具有內在聯系的活動所形成的一個網絡，要想優化這個網絡，必須要通過調整總體運營時間才能得以實現。而單純通過優化個別要素或過程中個別活動只能得到一個次優化的結果。（1）reducinglogisticslead-timeQuestion4

What’sOPT?what’sitsessence?AsignificantcontributiontothewayweviewlogisticsprocesseshasbeenmadebyGoldrattwhohasdevelopedthetheoryofconstraints(約束理論)whichismoreusuallyknownasOptimizedProductionTechnology（生產技術優化理論）(OPT).TheessenceofOPTisthatallactivitiesinalogisticschaincanbecategorizedaseither‘bottlenecks'or‘non-bottlenecks’.OPT——把一個物流鏈中的所有活動劃分為瓶頸類或非瓶頸類。Question5

Whatisabottleneck?Abottleneckistheslowestactivityinachainandwhilstitmayoftenbeamachine,itcouldalsobeapartoftheinformationflowsuchasorderprocessing.瓶頸是指整個鏈中最慢的活動，它可以是一臺機器，也可以是像訂單處理一樣的信息流的一部分。Furtheropportunitiesforpipelinetimereductioncannormallybefoundattheinterfacewithsuppliers’logisticssystem.(2)ImprovingvisibilityofdemandTheideathatitcouldbepossibleto‘extend’thecustomer’sordercyclemayatfirstsightseemimplausible.No,whatismeantbyextendingthecustomer’sordercycleisthatweshouldseektoobtainsignificantlyearlierwarningsofthecustomer’srequirement.Whatwefrequentlyfindisthatfirstofallthedemandpenetrationpointistoofardownthepipelineandthatsecondly,realdemandishiddenfromviewandallwetendtoseeareorders.Boththesepointsneedfurtherexplanation;firstlytheconceptofthedemandpenetrationpoint.Question

1What’sthedemandpenetrationpoint?

Thedefinitionofthedemandpenetrationpointisthatitoccursatthatpointinthelogisticschainwhererealdemandmeetstheplan.Upstreamfromthispointeverythingisdrivenbyaforecastand/oraplan.Downstreamwecanrespondtocustomerdemand.在物流鏈中需求與計劃達成一致的點。預測或計劃驅動著需求滲透點上游的活動，下游所做的就是對客戶需求做出反應。Question

2

What’sthekeyconcernoflogisticsmanagement?Howtoachieveit?Akeyconcernoflogisticsmanagementshouldbetoseektoidentifywaysinwhichthedemandpenetrationpointcanbepushedasfaraspossibleupstream.Thismightbeachievedbytheuseofinformationsothatmanufacturingandpurchasinggettohearofwhatishappeninginthemarketplacefasterthantheycurrentlydo.Theotherroutetoachievinganupstreamshiftoftheorderpenetrationpointisbypostponingthefinalcommitmentoftheproducttoitsfinalform.Followingfigureillustratesarangeofpossibledemandpenetrationpointsindifferentindustrialandmarketcontexts..DrivenByforecastDrivenBydemandplantDistributioncentralwarehousedepots需求滲透點和戰略庫存DemandpenetrationpointandstrategicinventoryInasensetheinformationwereceive,ifweonlyhavetheordertorelyon,islikethetipofaniceberg.theordercycletime(i.e.therequiredresponsetimefromordertodelivery)mayonlybethevisibletip.在某種意義上，如果我們僅僅依賴手頭的訂單，則所獲得的信息猶如冰山一角。訂貨周期時間也可能僅僅是信息冰山上可視的一角。Theareabelowthesurfaceoftheicebergrepresentstheongoingconsumption,demandorusageoftheproductwhichishiddenfromtheviewofthesupplier.Itisonlywhenanorderisissuedthatdemandbecomestransparent.海平面以下的部分代表著未來的消費、需求或者使用產品的信息，而這些統統是在供應商的視野之外的。只有當訂單發出之時，需求才變得透明。TheinformationicebergOrdercycletimeActualusage/demandTheorder訂單處理周期未來實際使用、需求Therearenowsighsthatbuyersandsuppliersarerecognizingtheopportunitiesformutualadvantageininformationonrequirementscanbesharedonacontinuingbasis.有跡象表明，購買者和供應者正意識到如果雙方能持續共享需求信息的話，這對于彼此雙方都是有利的Zaracasestudy◆BackgroundofZara◆targetmarketInternationalmarketpositionOperatingstrategyDesigntrendsSuccessfulforsomereasons:

1.basedonthedualobjectivesofworkingwithoutstocksandrespondingquicklytomarketneed.2.D