企業信貸風險管理的分析CREDITCULTURE

信貸文化RiskaversegivenBank’shighgearingandthinmargin傾向低風險，由于銀行高負債和低利息差Propergoalsandmeasureswithcontrols適當的目標和措施及控制TheLinetakesprimary(orjoint)responsibilityofthecreditdecisions

前線部門對貸款決定負主要（或共同）責任BurdenofproofontheLine

證明應貸款責任在于前線部門Neverfeelembarrassedtoask“dumb”questions不用擔心問“愚笨”的問題2CREDITRISKMANAGEMENT

信貸風險管理Prerequisite:先決條件Seniormanagement’ssupport(positiveintervention?)高層管理的支持（積極干預？）People(technicalcapability,integrityandinter-personalskills)人員（技術能力、人格和人際交往能力）OrganizationandSystem組織及系統

Attribute:特征Independent獨立性Nobottom-lineresponsibility沒有盈利責任Professional專業性Firmandfair堅定和公正3STRUCTUREANDAPPROVALPROCESS結構和認證程序BoardofDirectors董事會行政總裁（總部）GHQCEOAPHCEO行政總裁（亞太區）AMHGM總經理（香港及中國大陸）Line前線部門信貸總經理GMCreditCCO首席信貸官HDCredit信貸部門主管Concurrence認同Approval審批Approval審批Approval審批CountryRisk/BankRisk國家風險/銀行風險MarketRisk/CreditRisk市場風險/信用風險MarketRisk/CreditRisk市場風險/信用風險Credit信用4ALTERNATIVES選擇CentralizedvsDecentralized集權/分權IndividualvsCommittee(compositionanddecisionmakingprocess)個人/委員會（債務組成及決策過程）

Factorstoconsider:需要考慮的因素

Individual/CollectiveDecision/Responsibility個人/集體決策/責任Seniormanagement’strust高層管理的信任Qualityofstaff(atcentreandintheline)員工的素質（管理人員和一線職員）Specializationofstaff員工專業化Effectivenessofinternalcontrolsystem內部控制系統的功效Qualityofservice(e.g.turnaroundtime)服務的質量（例如：報廢項目時間）Others(fraudpreventionetc.)其他（防范欺詐等）5StructureandAccountCycle

結構及客戶信貸周期Policy/政策Approval審批RiskMonitoring風險監督Recovery追償HeadofCRM信貸風險管理部Loans貸款Unhealthyloans不良貸款Review回顧Review回顧6CreditPolicy,GuidelinesandProceduresManual

信貸政策，指南及程序手冊Keybusinessobjectives主要業務目標StructureandResponsibility結構及職責EconomicOutlook經濟預期SectoralAnalysis行業分析BusinessStrategyandFocus業務戰略和重點RiskAssessmentandCreditAppetite風險評估和信貸偏好LendingGuidelines貸款指南CreditProducts,ProceduresandAdvice信貸產品、程序和建議7CREDITPOLICY信貸政策Marketpositioningandriskappetite市場定位和風險偏好

Return回報

PrivateBank CommercialBank SubprimeLender

私人銀行商業銀行次級貸款人-Largecorporate大型企業-Middlemarket中端市場-Smallbusiness小型企業-Consumer消費者

Risk風險8MARKETSEGMENTATION–CREDITTOOLS市場細分—信貸工具CorporateBanking-Largecorporate-Judgemental(plusRating,KMV,MRA)公司金融-大型公司-主觀判斷（加評分，KMV,MRA)

CommercialBanking–Mediumsizedcorporate–Judgemental公司金融-中型企業-主觀判斷

BusinessBanking–Smallbusiness–Scoring商務理財-小型企業-評分

PersonalFinancialServices–Consumer–Scoring個人金融服務-消費者-評分

9Charge-OffRates,AllBanks,SA(USA)沖銷率所有銀行美國0.00.51.01.52.02.53.091Q191Q392Q192Q393Q193Q394Q194Q395Q195Q396Q196Q397Q197Q398Q198Q399Q199Q300Q100Q301Q101Q3Commercial*商業房地產貸款C&ILoans工商貸款TotalLoans&Leases貸款及租賃總額%Residential*住房貸款10LoanQualityinHK香港地區貸款質量-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%NPL%不良貸款比例Creditcardcharge-offratio(annualised)年信用卡沖銷比例MortgageDelinquencyRate住房貸款不良率RealGDP(yearonyear%change)年實際GDP變化率11SmallBusiness小型企業Morevulnerabletoeconomicdownturn易受經濟下滑的影響Informationproblematic(lowfinancialtransparencyandreliability)信息問題（財務信息透明度及可信度不高）Highoperatingrisks(relativelyweakinmanagementskills)高運營風險（較弱的管理能力）CharacteristicsoftheScorecard記分卡的特征Company’sfinancials公司財務狀況Company’scredithistoryandbehavior公司信用歷史和表現Company’sattributes(age,sector,sizeetc)公司性質（成立時間的長短、所屬行業、規模等）Owner’sscores公司所有者的評分12英國小型公司主要業務的設立與終止設立千/每季度終止13Consumer消費貸款CriteriaBasedLending根據準則所進行的信貸Morecommonlyforsecuredproducts,e.g.mortgage,carloans,HPandloanssecuredbyliquidassets多用于擔保產品，例如：住房貸款、汽車貸款、租賃及用流動資產擔保的貸款Securitycoverage抵押品/貸款比例Incomecoverage收入/還款比例

14CreditCardQuality信用卡質量3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%Dec-98Mar-99Jun-99Sep-99Dec-99Mar-00Jun-00Sep-00Dec-00Mar-01Jun-01Sep-01Dec-01Mar-02-1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000No.ofBankruptcyPetitions破產申請Creditcardcharge-offratio(annualised)年信用卡沖銷率Unemploymentrate失業率BankruptcyPetitions(RHS)破產申請（RHS)15Scoring評分Rankordering分級ApplicationandBehavioralScores申請信貸和行為評分GenericandCustomizedScores通用評分和專用評分Creditcard,personalloans,etc信用卡，個人貸款等16PRICINGSTRATEGY

定價戰略1.Interestmargin:hurdlerates,e.g.bonds.利率邊際：障礙率，例如：債券2.RORA:returnontheoverallrelationship總體關系的回報3.EP:costofcapital經濟利潤：資本成本

Factorstoconsider:考慮因素PD(Borrower’sgrade)違約機率LGD損失比率Term年期Costofcapital資本成本Competition競爭Businesspotential發展潛力17DEBTRECOVERY(1)

貸款收回（1）Objective

目標RiskvsRelationship

風險或關系Strategy

戰略RehabilitationORExit

貸款康復或退出18DEBTRECOVERY(2)

貸款收回(2)Workout-Factorsforsuccess

債務重組-成功的因素-

legalsystem(SchemeofArrangement,IndividualVoluntaryArrangement,BankruptcyLaw)-法律體系(債務安排計劃、個人自愿安排、破產法）-

professionalsupport(lawyer,accountant,financialadvisor,assetsearch