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原文:TrendpredictionTrendpredictioninformationismuchbroaderthan‘fashionprediction’inthatitmaynotbespecificallyrelatedtofashion.Trendsarerecordedandtrendpredictors(lookingforpatternsofhumanbehaviour,indicatingchangingmarketsornewconsumerneeds)constantlymonitorthemediaandsociety.Manyindustriesusetrendpredictiontoforecastrelevantchangesandplanproductdevelopment,forexampletheinterestinallthingsspiritualwasforecastbyFaithPopcorn,initiallyinthe‘PopcornReport’andwasdevelopedandcontinuedin‘Clicking’.Spiritualityisseenintheinterestofsuchthingsas‘FengShui’whichisapopularapproachtointeriordesign.Bookstoresnowhaveshelvesdedicatedtospirituality,asindividualslookinwardstodiscoverthemselvesinafast-movingworld.Thefashionpredictionconsultancyreliesonexpertsinavarietyoffieldsforitsstructure.Theyhavepersonnelallovertheworldtohelpingatheringintelligence.Thefull-timestaffingofaconsultancygenerallyconsistsoftheeditorwhocreatesthecompanyphilosophy.Thepublisher,onthetechnicalside,putstheinformationtogether.Theretailingandmerchandisingprofessionalsandfashiondirectorsworkonconsultancyforindividualclients,byapplyingthegeneralfashiontrendsmorespecificallytotheirneeds.Theymustbeskilledin,andawareof,avarietyofmarkets.Thiscould,forexample,involvedevelopingexclusivecollectionstrategies,conceptsanddesignsforspinners,weavers,textileprinters,men’s,women’sandchildren’sgarments,shoeandaccessorymanufacturersandforretailer’sprivatelabels.Theymayalsobeexpectedtosellsubscriptionstothepublicationstonewclients.Theobjectiveistoworkcloselywiththeclienttodeterminetheirconcerns,goalsandpotentialcustomerswithaviewtotailor-makingadesignsolution.Thesuccessofpredictioncompaniesreliesonpinpointingtrendsanddevelopingtheseforindividualmarketsattherighttime!Trendsmaybeaffectedbysocial,cultural,politicalandeconomicmoods,aswellasevolutionsinlifestyle,technologicaldevelopments,mediaandretailing.Thisinformationistappedandrecordedbyinternationalcorrespondentswhoprovideup-to-dateintelligencefromfashioncapitals,suchasLondon,Paris,Milan,NewYork,FlorenceandTokyo.Thedesignteamdetermineshowthisintelligenceaffectsfashionandconsumerawareness.Designers/Illustratorsareemployedwithdesignskillsinmenswear,womenswearandchildrenswear,andillustrationskillsininterpretinganddevelopingsilhouettethemes,knitandwovensamples,printstoriesandaccessories.Theyvisualisenewideasdevelopedfromthetrendinformationandconsidercarefullyfigureproportionsandstylizationsothatanypersonnel,usingtheservice,canunderstandwhatissuggestedbythevisual.Internationalagentspromoteandselltheservicetoclientsworldwide,forexampleinLosAngeles,Tokyo,LondonandParis.ColourColouristhefirstconsiderationofseasonandisproducedforautumn/winterandspring/summerranges.Thecolourisputintodye18monthsaheadofthespecifiedseason(someclientsmayrequirethisinformationupto2yearsearlier,butthismaynotbeshowninthefinalpresentationbox).Fibreandfabricmanufacturersrequireadvancedinformationregardingcolourastheyhavetodeveloptheirproductearlyenoughfordesignersandgarmentmanufacturerstobuyitandinturndeveloptheirproduct.Presentationpacksareusuallypresentedwithafixedrangeofcolourandaremovablerangesothatclientscandeveloptheirowncolourcombinations.Colourpackagesareincludedinthesubscriptionpriceandmaybesoldseparatelytoclientswhoonlyrequirecolourinformationandnottherestoftheservice.Thefollowsthesettingofthemoodforanewseasonbydevelopingfabricandsilhouettethemes.Predictionconsultanciesproduceavarietyofmaterialsandpublicationsfortheirclients.Directionalthemesandfull-figuresilhouetteillustrationsofmenswear,womenswearandchildrensweartogetherwithaccessoriesareshown.Includedinthepublicationmaybeexclusivehandloomsforwovens,knitsandprintsproducedbyfreelanceandin-housedesigners.Commercialfabricsmaybepublishedatthistime,derivedfromfabricfairssuchas,PremiereVision,InterstoffandPrato.Thesearecreatedfromhandcutandstuckswatchesofdirectionalfabricsrelatingtotheseason’spreviouslypredictedthemes.ThefashionpredictiondesignprocessOnepublicationisworkedinatatime(theremaybe12-oneamonth,ormore,dependinguponthesizeoftheconsultancyanditsbreadthofexpertise).Acompanythatdevelopsitsownthematicmaterialwillholdasuccessionofmeetingswiththecoreteamresultingindecisionsbeingmaderegardingtheamountandcontentofthethemesforaparticularseason,includingevocativenames.Thisisachievedbydiscussion.Eachindividualstateswhattheyfellwillbeastrongtrendinthecomingseason.Whereoneideaisrepeatedbyseveralmembersitisincorporatedintotheplanforthebook.Wheresimilarideasarementionedtheyareamalgamatedtoformastrongandidentifiabletrend.Acolourpaletteisdecidedupon.Thecoloursaredividedintogroupscorrespondingwiththethemes.Somecoloursunavoidablyoverlap,butasmainandaccentcoloursaltertheoverallimpression,eachthemeissufficientlydifferent.Thedesignersthenstartdesigning.Thewallsarecoveredwithtearsheetsfrommagazines,separatedintoappropriatethemesasinspiration.Photographsfromthetradefairsareusedforguidanceondesigndetails.Fabricsarethendiscussedinconjunctionwiththedesignersdesigningthegarments.Itisimportanttoconsiderthebalanceofouterwearandseparatesfabrics.Whendecided,lengthsoffabricandanyinterestingaccessoriesareorderedtoprovideswatchesforthebooks.Afterthedesignsarecompletedtheyareillustratedwithreferencetoparticularmarketsand‘lifestyles’andtocapturethe‘essenceofthethemes’.Technicaldrawingsarealsoproduced,eitherbythedesignteamorbyfreelanceillustrators.Samplesofknitwearandnewtextilesmaybecommissionedwhichwillbephotographedforthebooks.Moodboards,containingvisuals,fabricandtrim,depictingthethemes,arecompleted.Themoodboardsaresentawaytobephotographedandreturnastransparencies.Duringtheprocessofcompilation,agentsworldwidewillhaveseensecuringoldandnewclients,towhomthebookswillbesentoncompletion.amastercopyofthebookiscompiledandsenttotheprinterstohaveasamplecopyprintedandbound.Thecopyischeckedforanymistakesbeforethebookgoesintoproduction.Travelisanimportantaspectoffashionresearchandvisitingtradefairsallowsreportstobecompiledwhichobservenotonlytrendsapparentfromtheexhibitors’displays,butalsofromthepeople(whoaremainlyfromthefashionindustry)astheywalkaroundtheshows.Thisexercisehelpstounderstandthedifferencesininternationalfashion,whichisimportantwhencateringforforeignclients.ThemedevelopmentFashionpredictionforanewseasonisusuallypromotedasaseriesof‘themes’.Thesearedesignedtoinspireanddirectthedesignerforanumberofmarkets.Themes,often,aregivennamestoevokefeelingsandmoodsandreflectthecontentofthetheme.Eachthememayappealtooneormoremarketsandrequiresinterpretationfromthedesignertodevelopfortheirparticularmarket.Oftenthepredictioncompanyofferssomeconsultationtothedesignerwhichishelpfulinthisdevelopment.Marketsareusuallydefinedbycostofthemerchandise.Nowadaysthemarketsreferredtohavevaguenamessuchasboutique,fashionaware,betterend,pmdressing.Thisismorereflectiveofchangesin‘lifestyle’.Thesecanbeinterpretedintocustomersbuyingfrom:Lowermarket–budget;lowermiddle–highstreet,chainstores;middle–independentlabelsanddepartmentstores;uppermiddle–designerdiffusion;upper–designer.Fashionpredictionthemeshaveoftenbeenveryliteralintheirnature:nauticalwouldshowstripedsweatersandsailorhats;utilityalwaysinvolvedungareesofsomedescriptionandmultiplepockets.Achic,tailoredlookmaywellinvolveaFrenchberet.Itisimportantthatvisualcodesareidentifiableandmeansimilarthingstodifferentpeople.Theillustrationmustworkhardtoconveyamood,anattitude,inthepose,thatconvincesthevieweraboutthesortofpersonthatisbeingtargeted.Similarly,atotallookisalwayshelpfulbecauseaccessoriescancontributetonotonlythecommunicationofthetheme,butmayalsoconveythetypeofpersonwhowouldwearthe‘look’.Itisimportantthattheproportionisbelievableandthattheinformationisclear.Themesnowadaysarelessliteralandaremoreaboutmixingideastogethertocreatesomethingfresher.‘Lifestyle’hasbecomeimportant,consequentlythemesmaynotbeputintoanevocativesettingwhichhelpstocreatethecorrectmood.Lessclothingdetailisonviewbutthemessageallowsthedesignertomaketheirowninterpretations.NewusesoftechnologyhaveresultedinthedevelopmentoftheWorthGlobalStyleNetwork(WGSN)whoproduceacomprehensiveon-lineservicetofashionindustry.Memberspayanannualsubscriptiontoviewthefullsite;studentsmayvisitaneducationalversionfreeofcharge(foralimitedperiod).Theservicesavailableare:newsupdatesdaily;women’s,men’s,youthandchildren’strends;cityreportsfromLondon,Paris,Milan,NewYorkandTokyoplusseasonalreportsfromnewandtrendsettingareas;internationaltradefaircalendar;lifestylereports-consumerattitudes,evolvingbuyingpatterns,seasonalphasing;catwalkshowsandtradeeventreports;graphicslibraries;resourcelistings;licensingreports–brands,films,sportsevents;mailboxproblemsandsolutions;technicalandproductionnews–garmentandfabrictechnology,dyeingandfinishing,printtechniques,footwearandleathergoodstechnology.
譯文:流行趨勢預(yù)測流行趨勢預(yù)測信息所包含的內(nèi)容要比時(shí)裝預(yù)測豐富得多,原因是其不一定與時(shí)裝有關(guān)。流行趨勢是會(huì)被記錄下來的。趨勢預(yù)測者(尋找人類行為特點(diǎn),指出變化中的市場或新興的消費(fèi)需求)會(huì)對媒體及社會(huì)不斷地進(jìn)行監(jiān)測。許多行業(yè)都使用趨勢預(yù)測來預(yù)測相關(guān)變化并制定產(chǎn)品開發(fā)計(jì)劃。例如,費(fèi)絲?波普康(FaithPopcorn)預(yù)測了人們對所有精神事物的興趣。最初是在《爆米花報(bào)告》(‘Popcornreport’)中進(jìn)行的預(yù)測,后來又進(jìn)行了擴(kuò)展并繼續(xù)在《新爆米花報(bào)告》(‘Clicking’)中進(jìn)行預(yù)測。人們認(rèn)為精神性是符合諸如‘風(fēng)水’此類東西的利益的?!L(fēng)水’是室內(nèi)設(shè)計(jì)普遍采用的方法。當(dāng)今的書店都設(shè)立了論述精神性書籍的書架,主要是由于現(xiàn)代世界變化迅猛,人們都希望進(jìn)行內(nèi)省從而來發(fā)現(xiàn)自我。從事流行款式預(yù)測的咨詢公司只有依靠各領(lǐng)域的專家才能形成自己的體系。它們在世界各地均雇用人員來收集情報(bào)。咨詢公司的專職人員一般包括編輯(制定公司的宗旨),出版人(從技術(shù)的角度將信息匯總),零售與推銷專業(yè)人員及時(shí)裝經(jīng)理(為個(gè)人客戶提供咨詢,將時(shí)裝的總體趨勢更具體地用來滿足他們的需要)。這些人員必須具備必要的技能并了解各種市場。例如,這些技能可能包括開發(fā)獨(dú)特的收集戰(zhàn)略;紡紗機(jī),織布機(jī),紡織印花機(jī),男人,婦女及兒童服裝的概念與設(shè)計(jì);鞋子與附件的生產(chǎn)商,以及零售商的自有品牌。還有可能需要他們向新客戶銷售訂閱雜志。其目標(biāo)是與客戶一起緊密合作,確定他們都關(guān)心些什么,他們的目標(biāo)是什么及確定潛在客戶,以便制定個(gè)性化設(shè)計(jì)方案。預(yù)測公司的成功取決于準(zhǔn)確確定趨勢并及時(shí)為個(gè)性化市場開發(fā)這些趨勢。趨勢受社會(huì),文化,政治及經(jīng)濟(jì)氣氛以及生活方式的變化,技術(shù)發(fā)展,媒體與零售的影響。本信息是由國際記者開發(fā)并記錄的。他們從時(shí)裝之都,如倫敦,巴黎,米蘭,紐約,佛羅倫薩及東京,提供最新的情報(bào)。設(shè)計(jì)小組確定該情報(bào)會(huì)如何影響時(shí)裝及消費(fèi)者們的意識(shí)。雇用了具有男女與兒童服飾設(shè)計(jì)技能及說明并開發(fā)廓形主題,針織與機(jī)織樣品,印花織物的詳情與附件說明技能的設(shè)計(jì)人員/說明人員。他們將從趨勢信息開發(fā)而來的新思維形象化并仔細(xì)考慮體形的比例及風(fēng)格,以便使用服務(wù)的任何人員都能清楚視覺資料的含義。國際代理向世界各地,如洛杉磯,東京,倫敦及巴黎,的客戶推銷并銷售服務(wù)。預(yù)測流行色顏色是季節(jié)首要考慮的問題,是根據(jù)秋/冬及春/夏的類別而確定的。在所說季節(jié)到來之前的18個(gè)月用染料染出顏色(有些客戶最多可能要求提前兩年提供該信息,但最終的外觀盒可能沒有給出該信息。)。纖維及織物生產(chǎn)商要求提供顏色的超前信息,因?yàn)樗麄円嵩玳_發(fā)出產(chǎn)品供設(shè)計(jì)人員及服裝生產(chǎn)商進(jìn)行購買并轉(zhuǎn)而開發(fā)他們的產(chǎn)品。外觀盒的顏色通常是固定并可除去的,這樣客戶可開發(fā)自己的顏色。訂購價(jià)格中包括了彩色包裝。只需要顏色信息而不需要其他服務(wù)的客戶也可單獨(dú)購買彩色包裝。他們通過開發(fā)織物及廓型主題來確定新季節(jié)的色調(diào)。預(yù)測咨詢公司為客戶提供各種材料及雜志。它們給出指導(dǎo)性主題及包括附件在內(nèi)的男女,兒童服飾的完整廓型圖。雜志可能包括由從事自由職業(yè)的設(shè)計(jì)師及內(nèi)部設(shè)計(jì)師設(shè)計(jì)的獨(dú)特的手織機(jī)織物,針織物及印花織物。此時(shí)可能會(huì)發(fā)表來自織物博覽會(huì),如PremiereVision,Interstoff與Prato,的商業(yè)織物,系與提前預(yù)測季節(jié)主題有關(guān)的指導(dǎo)性織物的手工裁剪及粘貼樣布。流行預(yù)測設(shè)計(jì)過程每次安排一期雜志(每月可能會(huì)安排12期或更多。這取決于咨詢公司的規(guī)模及專業(yè)能力)。開發(fā)自有主題材料的公司會(huì)與核心團(tuán)隊(duì)召開一系列的會(huì)議來決定某一季節(jié)主題的數(shù)量及內(nèi)容,包括令人懷舊的名稱。他們是通過討論的方式做出決定的。每位與會(huì)者均應(yīng)各抒己見,說出他們認(rèn)為的下一季節(jié)的主流趨勢。如若數(shù)位與會(huì)者均由同一想法,則該想法會(huì)被包括在雜志的計(jì)劃中。如想法相似,則將這些想法融合在一起,得出主流及大家認(rèn)同的趨勢。然后確定調(diào)色板。根據(jù)主題將顏色分成不同的小組。有些顏色會(huì)重復(fù),這是不可避免的。但由于主要及重點(diǎn)顏色會(huì)改變總體印象,每個(gè)主題均是足夠不同的。然后設(shè)計(jì)者們開始進(jìn)行設(shè)計(jì)。他們將從雜志上撕下的圖片貼在墻上并將圖片按相關(guān)主題分類以獲得靈感。他們還用從行業(yè)博覽會(huì)獲得的照片來指導(dǎo)設(shè)計(jì)細(xì)節(jié)。然后與設(shè)計(jì)服裝的設(shè)計(jì)者討論織物問題。重要的是要考慮
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