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Mobilizing
CapitalinandtoEmergingMarkets
Commissionedby
December1,2023
BloombergNEF
MobilizingCapitalinandtoEmergingMarketsDecember1,2023
Contents
Section1.Executivesummary2
Section2.Stateofenergytransitioninvestment7
2.1.Energysupplycapitalinvestment8
2.2.Energysupplybank-facilitatedfinancing18
Section3.Countryprogressandinvestmentshowcase21
3.1.Argentina22
3.2.Brazil26
3.3.Egypt30
3.4.India33
3.5.SouthAfrica37
3.6.Vietnam41
Section4.Acceleratingandexecutingthetransition45
4.1.Externalfactors47
4.2.Intrinsicfactors47
4.3.Economicpolicies49
Section5.Transformationalinitiatives53
5.1.Multilateraldevelopmentbanks53
5.2.Countryplatforms54
5.3.Managedphaseoutofcoal55
5.4.Voluntarycarbonmarkets57
AppendixA.Understandingthecostofcapital60
AppendixB.Howthisresearchrelatestocommonlyreferencedframeworks65
Aboutus70
Tableoffigures
Figure1:Low-carbonenergysupplyinvestments,bycountrygroup4
Figure2:Shareoflow-carbonenergysupplyinvestments,bycountrygroup4
Figure3:EMDEenergysupplycapitalinvestmentandbank-facilitatedfinancing
7
Figure4:EnergysupplycapitalinvestmentinEMDEs
8
Figure5:Globalenergysupplycapitalinvestment
9
Figure6:Energysupplycapitalinvestmentbycountrygroup
10
Figure7:FossilfuelsupplycapitalinvestmentinEMDEs
11
Figure8:Changeinfossilfuelsupplycapitalinvestment,2021-22
11
Figure9:Low-carbonenergysupplyinvestments,bycountrygroup
11
Figure10:Shareoflow-carbonenergysupplyinvestments,bycountrygroup11
Figure11:EMDElow-carbonenergysupplyinvestments,bysector
12
Figure12:EMDErenewableenergyinvestments,bysub-sector
12
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MobilizingCapitalinandtoEmergingMarketsDecember1,2023
Figure13:EMDErenewableenergyinvestment,bycountry
13
Figure14:EMDErenewableenergyinvestment,byWorldBankincomegroup
13
Figure15:EMDErenewableenergyinvestments,2021-22change
13
Figure16:ShareofnetcapacityadditionsinEMDEs
14
Figure17:CapacityadditionsinEMDEs
14
Figure18:Mostpopularnewpower-generatingtechnologyinstalled,202215
Figure19:Globalutility-scalerenewableenergyforeigndirectinvestment,by
recipientgroup
16
Figure20:Utility-scalerenewableenergyforeigndirectinvestmenttoEMDEs,
byownership
16
Figure21:Utility-scalerenewableenergyforeigndirectinvestmenttoEMDEs,
bytypeofinvestor
16
Figure22:Utility-scalerenewableenergyforeigndirectinvestmenttoEMDEs
frommulti-nationaldevelopmentbanks,byincomegroup
17
Figure23:RenewableenergyinvestmentintoEMDEsbytypeofinvestor17
Figure24:EMDErenewableenergyinvestment,bytypeofinvestor
17
Figure25:Renewableenergyinvestmenttotop10EMDEsfordomestic
investmentbytypeofinvestor,2018-2022
18
Figure26:Energysupplybankfinancing,byinstrumenttype,2021-22
19
Figure27:Lowcarbonsupplyfundsraised,byEMDEcountries2021and2022
20
Figure28:EMDEcorporatedebtandequityfundraisingin2022,bycurrency.20
Figure29:Energytransitionstages
21
Figure30:Argentinarenewableenergyinvestments,bysub-sector
23
Figure31:Argentina’sRenovArauctionsbycapacitiesandprices
23
Figure32:Argentinarenewableenergyprojectcostofdebtbuild-upillustration
26
Figure33:Brazilrenewableenergyinvestments,bysub-sector
27
Figure34:Brazil'stransmissioninvestmentviareverseauctions,2012-2022..27
Figure35:Brazilleadinvestmentproviders,2012-2022
28
Figure36:Brazilleadinvestmentproviders,2022
28
Figure37:Brazilrenewableenergyprojectcostofdebtbuild-upillustration29
Figure38:Brazilrenewablescapacity,2022vs.2030BNEFforecast30
Figure39:Egyptgreenhouse-gasemissionsbasedonsectoralNDCtargets.30
Figure40:Egyptrenewableenergyinvestments,bysubsector
31
Figure41:Egyptrenewableenergyinvestment,bytypeofinvestor
31
Figure42:Egyptleadinvestmentproviders,2012-2022
32
Figure43:Egyptrenewableenergycumulativecapacity
32
Figure44:Egyptrenewableenergyprojectcostofdebtbuild-upillustration33
Figure45:RenewableenergyauctionvolumesinIndia
34
Figure46:Indiarenewableenergyinvestments,bysubsector
35
Figure47:Indiarenewableenergyinvestment,bytypeofinvestor
35
Figure48:Indiacentralbankreporate
35
Figure49:Year-on-yearchangeofIndia’sconsumerprices
35
Figure50:Indiarenewableenergyprojectcostofdebtbuild-upillustration36
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Tableoftables
MobilizingCapitalinandtoEmergingMarketsDecember1,2023
Figure51:Indiarenewablescapacity,2022vs.2030BNEFforecastandNet
Zeroscenario
37
Figure52:SouthAfricarenewableenergyinvestments,bysub-sector
38
Figure53:SouthAfricaannualgrossgenerationbytechnology
39
Figure54:SouthAfricarenewableenergyprojectcostofdebtbuild-up
illustration
40
Figure55:Loadsheddinginstancesbystageandasaproportionofnet
generation,SouthAfrica
41
Figure56:ExportsofsolarproductsfromChinatoSouthAfrica
41
Figure57:Vietnam’srenewableenergycapacityadditions
42
Figure58:Vietnamrenewableenergyinvestments,bysub-sector
42
Figure59:BNEF'sVietnamsolarcapacityforecast
43
Figure60:Vietnamrenewableenergyprojectcostofdebtbuild-upillustration43Figure61:ShareofEMDEswherekeyrenewablepowerpoliciesarepresent52
Figure62:ShareofEMDEsbyincome-levelgroupwithaspecificnumberof
policymechanisminforce
52
Figure63:JETP-CIPPfocusareainvestmentrequirements
54
Figure64:Installedcapacityforunabatedcoalpowergenerationin2023and
2030acrosscommonlyreferencedscenarios
55
Figure65:Carbonoffsetissuance,bysector
57
Figure66:Carbonoffsetretirements,bysector
57
Figure67:Topissuingcountriesofenergyoffsets
58
Figure68:Topcoalpowerproducingcountries,2021
58
Figure69:Illustrationofoffsetsinmanagedphaseout
58
Figure70:Levelizedcostofelectricityforecast,Indonesia
58
Figure71:Theinvestableuniverse
61
Figure72:5-yearreturnvs5-yearvolatilityofcleanenergyandfossilfuel
equitiesbyincomegroup,2018-23
63
Figure73:5-yearreturnvs5-yearvolatilityofcleanenergyandfossilfuel
equitiesbytype,2018-23
64
Table1:ArgentinaRenovarrenewableenergyauctionriskmitigationstrategy23
Table2:Factorsaffectingtheenablingenvironment
46
Table3:Costofdebtstackforcleanenergyprojectsbycountry,%
62
Table4:SummaryofselectedreportsonEMDEcapitalmobilization
65
Table5:Countrygroups
66
Table6:Sectoralgroupings
66
Table7:Instrumentsanddatasources
68
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ForewordfromtheCo-Leadsofthe
GFANZWorkstreamonMobilizingCapitaltoEmergingMarkets&DevelopingEconomies
TheGFANZWorkstreamonMobilizingCapitaltoEmergingMarketsandDeveloping
Economies(EMDEs)workstoidentifypracticalactionstoacce
leratecapitalallocationin
supportofthenet-zerotransitioninthesecriticalcountries.Thisincludessupportingcountryplatforms;strengtheningtiesbetweenpublicagencies,internationalfinancialinstitutions,andprivatefinancetosupportpartnershipsandcapitalmobilizationefforts;aidingthe
developmentofhigh-integritycarbonmarkets;andadvancingglobalcapacitybuildingeffortsforEMDEfinancialinstitutions.YoucanreadmoreaboutourworkintheGFANZ2023
ProgressReport.
GFANZcommissionedthisBloombergNEFreport–anupdatetotheinaugural2022
reportMobilizingCapitalintoEmergingMarketsandDevelopingEconomies–toadvance
understandingofthekeytrendsandissuesdrivingcleanenergyandfossilfuelinvestment
andcapitalmarketactivity,asEMDEslooktotransitiontheirenergysourcestolow-carbon.
Thisreportsetsthoseoutindetailandhighlightsmicroandmacroenablingenvironment
factorsthatcanacceleratethepaceofprogress,includingthroughanalysisofsixcountry
casestudies.Theinsightsfromthisreporthighlightthecomplexityofthechallengeaswellastheopportunityandimpactassociatedwithsuccessfullycreatinganenablingenvironmentforclimateinvestment.
Positively,inthepastyear,threequartersofnewpowergenerationaddedinEMDEcountrieswaslow-carbon,deliveringanall-timehighlevelofinvestment.Despitesuch
examplesofsuccess,however,weremainsignificantlyoff-trackindeliveringtheinvestmentneededtosupportEMDEsintheirtransitiontonetzero,withinvestmentlevelsneedingtoincreasefive-foldbetweennowand2026-2030.
WeextendourgratitudetoBloombergNEFfortheiranalysisandhopethisreportwillproveusefultoawiderangeofaudiencestoadvancethenecessarydialogue,ambitionandactiontoscaleclimatefinanceforthetransitionofEMDEs.
Andwearedeeplythankfultothe35financialinstitutionsandcivilsociety
organizationsacross16countriesthatarededicatedtosupportingGFANZ’sworkonEMDECapitalMobilization.
ShemaraWikramanayake
ChiefExecutiveOfficer,
MacquarieGroup
BillWinters
GroupChiefExecutive,
StandardChartered
BloombergNEF
MobilizingCapitalinandtoEmergingMarketsDecember1,2023
Section1.
Executivesummary
In2022,some75%ofnewpowergenerationcapacityaddedinemerging
marketsanddevelopingeconomies(EMDEs),excludingChina1,waslow-
carbon.Energytransitioninvestmentinthesemarketsreachedanewrecordof$85billion,up10%from2021.However,low-carboninvestmentinandto
EMDEscontinuestofallsignificantlyshortofwhatisrequiredtomeetnet-zeroemissionsgoalsby2050.Investmentsinfossilfuelenergysupply2stilleclipsethoseincleanenergyandtheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)estimatesthatannualinvestmentinlow-carbonenergysupplymustgrowmorethanfive-foldfrom2022to2030.Thedisparityincleanenergyinvestmentbetweenemergingeconomiesandrichernationspersists,withEMDEscomprisinglessthan15%ofglobalinvestment.
However,therearepositivedevelopments,primarilyinmarketswithrobust
enablingenvironments.Brazilstandsoutthisyearandformostofthelast
decade.Withaneffectiveandstablecleanenergypolicyframeworkandstrong,supportiveandindependentpublicinstitutions,thecountryrepresentedover
one-thirdofEMDErenewableenergyinvestmentin2022,contributing
significantlytotheEMDEs’totalnewrecord.IndiaandSouthAfricafollowBrazilasthetopthreemaininvestmentdestinationsin2022.Mostothereconomies,however,continuetoattractinsufficientlow-carbonenergyinvestment.
Thelessonslearnedfromcountriesacrossallincomegroupsthathavebeen
trailblazingtheenergytransitionhighlightthatmeaningful,stableprogress
requiresstrongcollaborationbetweenkeystakeholders.Governments,nationalpublicfinanceinstitutions,theprivatesector,andMultilateralDevelopment
Banks(MDBs)needtoworktogethertocreatefavorableinvestment
environments,mitigaterisks,enhanceliquidityanddeploycatalyticinvestmenteffectively.DomesticEMDEfinancialinstitutionshavebeennotablyeffectiveatsupportingthetransitioninthelastfiveyears,andtheirinvestmenthasprovenrelativelyresilienttoexternalshockslikeCovid-19andrisinginterestrates.
Thereisaclearneedandopportunitytodevelopandharnesslocalcapital
markets.Thatsaid,toreachthescaleoffinancerequiredfortransition,whichwillrequiremanyEMDEstomorethantripletheirrenewablecapacitytoreachtheglobal11terawattsofglobalcapacityneededby2030,internationalprivate
1Throughoutthereport,emergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies(EMDEs)referstoEMDEsexcludingChina.
2Fossilfuelenergysupplycapitalinvestmentincludestheupstream,midstreamanddownstreamvaluechainsofoil,naturalgasandcoalproductionandprocessing,aswellasunabatedfossil-basedelectricitysupply.
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MobilizingCapitalinandtoEmergingMarketsDecember1,2023
capitalmustalsobemobilizedatmuchgreaterrates.Developmentfinance
institutions,bilateraldonorsandMDBsmustallaccelerateeffortstomobilizeinternationalprivatefinance,particularlythroughrapidlyscalingtheavailabilityandaccessibilityofcatalyticinstrumentslikeguarantees.
Thisreportprovidesanoverviewofthecurrentstateoftheenergytransition
anditsfinancinginEMDEsanddiscusseshowtoexecuteandaccelerateit.Sixcountrycasestudies–Argentina,Brazil,Egypt,India,SouthAfricaandVietnam–areusedtoexplorehowdifferentstakeholderscaninfluencemacroand
microeconomicfactorsthataffectinvestmentinEMDEs.Finally,itdiscusses
fourtransformativeinitiativesordevelopmentsthatcouldsignificantlyacceleratethetransitioninEMDEs:theemergenceofcountryplatformsasacoordinatingmechanism,ongoingeffortstostrengthenandevolveMDBs,thescalingof
high-integrityvoluntarycarbonmarkets,andthedevelopmentofcoalphase-outstrategies.
Thereport’skeyfindings:
?Low-carbonenergysupplyinvestmentinEMDEsremainsinsufficienttoreach1.5C
scenarios.TheIEA’sNetZeroEmissionsby2050scenario(NZE)estimatesthatanearly
fivefoldincreaseinlow-carboninvestmentisneededby2030,comparedto2022levels,whileinvestmentinfossilfuelneedstohalve.
?Althoughlow-carbonenergysupplyinvestmentinEMDEsreachedarecordhighin2022,itstillonlyrepresents14%oftheglobaltotal,thelowestsharesince2016.
Investmentroseby11%from2021,reaching$85billion,withathirdofitdirectedtosmall-scalesolar.Investmentremainsconcentratedinafewmarkets,primarilyinupper-middle
incomecountries.Thetop10marketsbyinvestmentvolumecombinedaccountforover80%oftotalinvestment,andBrazilandIndiatogetherrepresentmorethanhalfofthetotal.
?Renewableenergyrepresentedthree-quartersofthenewpower-generatingcapacityaddedinEMDEsin2022,whilefossilfuel’ssharefelltoanewlow.EMDEsinstalled94gigawattsofnewcapacity,withrenewables(includinghydro)representing74%ofthis.Theshareoffossilfuelsintotalcapacityaddeddroppedto26%,downfrom48%in2021.
?WhilerenewablesadditionsandinvestmentremainconcentratedinlargerEMDEs,
technologieslikephotovoltaics(PV)arerapidlyexpandingtomoremarkets.In2022,PVwastheprimarytechnologyinstalledin46%oftheEMDEs,upfromjust8%in2012.ThisisbecausePVmodulescostlessthanathirdofwhattheycostin2012,andasixteenthof
whattheycostin2008.
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700
600
595
490
77
372
344
318
205
121
128
61
174
123
314
44
118
151
256
32
86
138
59
148
138
239
33
54
152
64
103
151
198209206
405
78
319
52
209
25
303
139
129
85
77
500
400
300
200
100
0
35%
14%
MobilizingCapitalinandtoEmergingMarketsDecember1,2023
Figure1:Low-carbonenergysupplyinvestments,bycountrygroup
$billion
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2012
China
EMDE
NonEMDE
Figure2:Shareoflow-carbonenergysupplyinvestments,bycountrygroup
80%
64%
60%
51%
40%
23%
14%
20%
0%
201220142016201820202022
NonEMDEChinaEMDE
Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Low-carbonenergysupplyincludesrenewableenergy,nuclear,energystorage,hydrogenandCCS.Excludestransmissionanddistribution(T&D)andlargehydro.Totalvolumesexcludesmall-scalesolarinvestmentbuffers.
?Theresultsofmeasurestakeninthecountriesstudiedinthisreporthighlighttheneedforunprecedentedcollaborationamongdomesticandinternationalstakeholdersto
achievenet-zerogoalswithinthetimeframeenvisionedbytheParisAgreement,withanemphasisonbothstrengtheningtheenablingenvironmentandensuringpubliccapitalisusedcatalyticallytoleverageprivateinvestment.
?Argentina’sexperiencedemonstrateshowamixofwell-designedpolicyframeworksandfinancialriskmitigationmechanismscanspurrenewableenergydevelopmentinachallengingmacroeconomiccontext.Acombinationofauctionsandguaranteesmanagedtocreatebankableprojectsdespiteavolatileeconomicenvironment.Thisrequiredan
innovativemechanismbasedonacollaborativeapproachbetweenthemarketoperator,thenationalgovernmentandtheWorldBank.
?Brazil’ssuccessillustratestheresiliencethatacompleteandstablepolicyframework,supportedbystrongindependentpublicinstitutions,canbringtothetransitionofa
country.BrazilhasoneofthemostinvitingrenewableenergyenablingenvironmentsamongEMDEs,whichhelpeddriveover$93billionininvestmentinthecountryover2012-2022.TheBrazilianNationalDevelopmentBank(BNDES)waspivotaltothedevelopmentofthesectorandensuringlowcostofdebtforcleanenergyprojects,whilethecountry’sindependent
CentralBankhasbeenkeytomaintainingmacroeconomicstability.
?Egypt’sstoryshowstheimpactofMDBtechnicalandfinancialsupportonrenewable
energyinvestmentflows.OneofthemaindriversofinvestmentinenergytransitioninthecountrywasthecollaborationoftheEgyptiangovernmentwithMDBs.TheInternational
FinanceCorporation(IFC)andtheEuropeanBankforReconstructionandDevelopment
(EBRD)helpedthegovernmentdesignasetofpowerpurchaseagreementsandother
incentivesofferedtodevelopersthroughacompetitivemechanism.Inparallel,theMultilateralInvestmentGuaranteeAgencyoftheWorldBank(MIGA)providedguaranteesforprojects
undertheprogram.Thishelpeddrive$3.3billionin2017,upfromnearlynothingin2015.
?India’svibrantcleanenergysectorhighlightshowhighambitioncanbematchedtoacomprehensivesetofpolicytoolsdesignedtoaddresschallengesandmobilize
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MobilizingCapitalinandtoEmergingMarketsDecember1,2023
domesticinvestorsinsupportofthetransition.Thecountryhasimplementedavarietyofmechanismstoboostconfidenceamonglocalfinancialinstitutions,leadingtoasignificant
growthinlocalinvestment.Domesticinvestmentinlow-carbonenergywasfourtimeshigherthanforeigninvestmentin2022.Thecountryhasbeenarolemodelinholdingrenewable
auctionswithhighvolumesandaregularschedule,withanaverageof15GWofrenewablescapacityauctionedineachofthelastfivefiscalyears.
?SouthAfrica’schallengesillustratetheimportanceofpolicystability,theneedfor
multi-stakeholdercollaboration,andtherolerenewablescanplayinimprovingenergysecurity.Despitebeingamaturerenewablesmarketintermsofprocurementexperienceandfinancingcapacity,SouthAfricafacesmajorenergytransitionstumblingblocksinitspolicy
instability,regulatorytightnessandpoliticalrisk.Whenexecutedproperly,itscleanpowerincentives,suchasauctions,havedrivensubstantialinvestmentandbuild,butretroactivechangesandcancellationshavedamagedinvestorconfidence.However,recentchangesinregulationhaveunlockedthepotentialofdistributedPVinaddressingpowershortages.
?Vietnam’sambitiouscleanenergypoliciesshowhowquicklyavibrantmarketfor
renewablescanmaterializeundertherightconditions,butalsohowquicklyitcanbesaturatedintheabsenceofamoreholisticenergytransitionplan.Generousfeed-in
tariffstriggeredasolarandwindboom,driving$44billionininvestmentinjustfouryears.
However,unsustainabletarifflevels,lackofclarityandinfrastructurebottlenecksledtoa
steepdeclineininvestmentflows,emphasizingtheimportanceofsustainedandclearpolicydirection.
?Theabovecasestudiesprovideclearexamplesofhoweachstakeholdergroupacrossthepublicandprivatesectorhasacriticalroleindrivingprogress.Crucially,each
stakeholder’sactionismoreeffectivewhenworkingincollaborationacrossthepublicand
privatesectortocreatevibrantrenewablesmarkets,scaleupcleantechnologiesoreffectivelymanagethephase-outoffossilfuelassets.
-Governmentsareresponsiblefortranslatingtheirclimatetargetsintoasetofpoliciesandregulationsthat,alongwithmacroeconomicandpoliticalstability,createanenabling
environmentthatisconducivetoinvestment,providingstabilitytoinvestorsandcarefullydeployinglimitedbudgetresourceswheretheyaremostneeded.
-MDBsmustactasenablers,providingbothtechnicalandfinancialsupporttohost
countries,private-sectorcompaniesandfinancialinstitutions,andprojectdevelopers.
MDBshaveauniqueroleintheinterfacebetweengovernmentsandtheprivatesector,identifyingopportunitieswhereacountrycanspurinvestmentmostefficientlyby
mobilizingprivatefinance,andwheremoreenablinginvestmentusingpublicresourcesisneeded.
-Wheretheenablingconditionsareinplace,theprivatesectorneedstoplayitsroleasacreator,financierandoperatoroftheassetsthatareneededtodecarbonizeeconomies.
?Theselessonsareparticularlyimportantasleadersbuildmomentumtotripleglobalinstalledrenewableenergycapacityby2030,froma2022baseline.Thisgoalequatesto11terawattsofrenewablescapacityby2030,butcontributionswilldifferaroundtheworld.Whileforearlieradoptersofrenewables,triplingistherightgoal,othercountries–especiallyEMDEsinsouthandsoutheastAsia,theMiddleEastandAfrica–willneedtosetasteeperpathawayfromfossilfuelswhilemeetinggrowingelectricitydemand.
?Sometransformationalinitiativesalsohavethepotentialtoacceleratethetransitionbyensuringappropriatemulti-stakeholdercollaboration,increasinganddiversifying
investmentflowsandcreatingnewstrategiesforremainingchallenges.Theseinclude
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