1、關于宏觀經濟政策的五個爭論問題關于宏觀經濟政策的五個爭論問題Five Debates over Macroeconomic Policy4.政府應該平衡其預算嗎？ Should the government balance its budget?5.應該為了鼓勵儲蓄而修改稅法嗎？ Should the tax laws be reformed to encourage saving?第1頁/共36頁1.貨幣與財政政策決策者應該努貨幣與財政政策決策者應該努力穩定經濟嗎？力穩定經濟嗎？Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try to Stabilize

2、the Economy?第2頁/共36頁贊成：決策者應該努力穩定經濟贊成：決策者應該努力穩定經濟Pro: Policymakers should try to stabilize the economyu經濟天生是不穩定的，如果放任不管，經濟就傾向于發生波動。 The economy is inherently unstable, and left on its own will fluctuate.u政策能調節總需求以便抵消天生的不穩定性，并減輕經濟波動的嚴重性。 Policy can manage aggregate demand in order to offset this inher

3、ent instability and reduce the severity of economic fluctuations.第3頁/共36頁贊成：決策者應該努力穩定經濟贊成：決策者應該努力穩定經濟Pro: Policymakers should try to stabilize the economyu沒有理由讓社會受到經濟周期高漲與低落的折磨。 There is no reason for society to suffer through the booms and busts of the business cycle.u貨幣與財政政策可以穩定總需求，從而穩定生產和就業。 Mone

4、tary and fiscal policy can stabilize aggregate demand and, thereby, production and employment.第4頁/共36頁反對：決策者不應該努力穩定經濟反對：決策者不應該努力穩定經濟Con: Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economyu貨幣與財政 政策并不能立即影響經濟，而是其作用要有一個相當長的無法預知的時滯。 Monetary policy affects the economy with long and unpredictable lags b

5、etween the need to act and the time that it takes for these policies to work.u許多研究表明，在作出貨幣政策變動的6個月之內，這種變動對總需求的影響很小。 Many studies indicate that changes in monetary policy have little effect on aggregate demand until about six months after the change is made.第5頁/共36頁反對：決策者不應該努力穩定經濟反對：決策者不應該努力穩定經濟Con:

6、Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economyu 財政政策的作用存在時滯源于政府改變支出與稅收的漫長政治程序。 Fiscal policy works with a lag because of the long political process that governs changes in spending and taxes.u 提出、通過和實施一項重要的財政政策需要好幾年的時間。 It can take years to propose, pass, and implement a major change in fiscal

7、 policy.第6頁/共36頁反對：決策者不應該努力穩定經濟反對：決策者不應該努力穩定經濟Con: Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economyu通常，決策者可能無形中擴大了而不是縮小了經濟波動的程度。 All too often policymakers can inadvertently exacerbate rather than mitigate the magnitude of economic fluctuations.u如果決策者能夠消除所有經濟波動，這樣做是合意的，但這是一個不現實的目標。 It might be d

8、esirable if policy makers could eliminate all economic fluctuations, but this is not a realistic goal.第7頁/共36頁2.貨幣政策應該按規則還是相機抉貨幣政策應該按規則還是相機抉擇擇Should Monetary Policy Be Made by Rule Rather Than by Discretion?第8頁/共36頁贊成：貨幣政策應該按規則制定贊成：貨幣政策應該按規則制定Pro: Monetary policy should be made by ruleu相機抉擇的貨幣政策導致權力

9、的無能與濫用。Discretionary monetary policy can suffer from incompetence and abuse of power.u中央銀行領導人與政治家在多大程度上結盟，相機抉擇政策就會引起反映大選日期的經濟波動，這種波動稱為政治性經濟周期。 To the extent that central bankers ally themselves with politicians, discretionary policy can lead to economic fluctuations that reflect the electoral calend

10、ar the political business cycle.第9頁/共36頁贊成：貨幣政策應該按規則制定贊成：貨幣政策應該按規則制定Pro: Monetary policy should be made by ruleu 決策者說他們要做什么和實際作了什么之間存在不一致性，這就是政策的時間不一致性。 There may be a discrepancy between what policymakers say they will do and what they actually do called time inconsistency of policy.u因為決策者經常出現這種時間不

11、一致性，當中央銀行領導人宣布他們打算降低通貨膨脹率時，人們表示懷疑。 Because policymakers are so often time inconsistent, people are skeptical when central bankers announce their intentions to reduce the rate of inflation.第10頁/共36頁贊成：貨幣政策應該按規則制定贊成：貨幣政策應該按規則制定Pro: Monetary policy should be made by ruleu美聯儲保持貨幣供應的適度與穩定的增長，將能限制無能，權力的濫用

12、和時間的不一致性。 Committing the Fed to a moderate and steady growth of the money supply would limit incompetence, abuse of power, and time inconsistency.第11頁/共36頁反對：貨幣政策不應該根據規則制定反對：貨幣政策不應該根據規則制定Con: Monetary policy should not be made by ruleu相機抉擇一個最重要的優點是靈活性。 An important advantage of discretionary monetar

13、y policy is its flexibility.u固定的政策將會限定決策者根據經濟的變動周期作出反應的能力。 Inflexible policies will limit the ability of policymakers to respond to changing economic circumstances.第12頁/共36頁反對：貨幣政策不應該根據規則制定反對：貨幣政策不應該根據規則制定Con: Monetary policy should not be made by ruleu所謂的相機抉擇問題主要是假想的。 The alleged problems with disc

14、retion and abuse of power are largely hypothetical.u并且，政治性經濟周期的實際中要性很不明顯。 Also, the importance of the political business cycle is far from clear.第13頁/共36頁3. 中央銀行應該把零通貨膨脹作為中央銀行應該把零通貨膨脹作為目標嗎？目標嗎？Should The Central Bank Aim for Zero Inflation?第14頁/共36頁贊成：中央銀行應該把零通貨膨脹作為目贊成：中央銀行應該把零通貨膨脹作為目標標Pro: The cent

15、ral bank should aim for zero inflationu通貨膨脹并沒有給社會帶來什么好處，但引起了一些實際成本。 Inflation confers no benefit to society, but it imposes several real costs.u皮鞋成本 Shoeleather costsu菜單成本 Menu costsu相對價格變動性提高 Increased variability of relative pricesu稅收負擔不合意的變動 Unintended changes in tax liabilitiesu混亂與不方便 Confusion

16、and inconvenienceu財富任意再分配 Arbitrary redistribution of wealth第15頁/共36頁贊成：中央銀行應該把零通貨膨脹作為目贊成：中央銀行應該把零通貨膨脹作為目標標Pro: The central bank should aim for zero inflationu降低通貨膨脹是一項暫時有成本而長期有好處的政策。 Reducing inflation is a policy with temporary costs and permanent benefits.u一旦反通貨膨脹的衰退過去，零通貨膨脹的好處就會持續到未來。 Once the d

17、isinflationary recession is over, the benefits of zero inflation would persist.第16頁/共36頁反對：中央銀不應該把零通貨膨脹作為目反對：中央銀不應該把零通貨膨脹作為目標標Con: The central bank should not aim for zero inflationu零通貨膨脹是不太可能做到的，它是以產量、失業和較高的社會成本為代價的。 Zero inflation is probably unattainable, and to get there involves output, unemplo

18、yment, and social costs that are too high.u決策者可以實際上并不降低通貨膨脹而較少許多通貨膨脹的成本。 Policymakers can reduce many of the costs of inflation without actually reducing inflation.第17頁/共36頁4.財政決策者應該減少政府債務嗎？財政決策者應該減少政府債務嗎？Should Fiscal Policymakers reduce the Government Debt?第18頁/共36頁贊成：政府應該平衡其預算贊成：政府應該平衡其預算Pro: The

19、 government should balance its budgetu預算赤字對后代產生了不合理的影響，提高了他們的稅收負擔，減少了他們的收入。 Budget deficits impose an unjustifiable burden on future generations by raising their taxes and lowering their incomes.u當債務和累積的利息到期后，未來的納稅人將面臨一個困難的選擇： When the debts and accumulated interest come due, future taxpayers will f

20、ace a difficult choice:u他們要納更高的稅，享有較少的政府支出，或兩者都有。 They can pay higher taxes, enjoy less government spending, or both.第19頁/共36頁贊成：政府應該平衡其預算贊成：政府應該平衡其預算Pro: The government should balance its budgetu把當前政府享有好處的成本轉移到下一代，這明顯對未來的納稅人不公正。 By shifting the cost of current government benefits to future generati

21、ons, there is a bias against future taxpayers.u赤字減少了國民儲蓄，導致資本存量的減少，這又降低了生產率和增長。 Deficits reduce national saving, leading to a smaller stock of capital, which reduces productivity and growth.第20頁/共36頁反對：政府不應該平衡其預算反對：政府不應該平衡其預算Con: The government should not balance its budgetu政府赤字問題往往被夸大了。 The problem

22、 with the deficit is often exaggerated.u債務轉移到未來是正確的，因為政府購買創造的一些好處將會延伸到未來。 The transfer of debt to the future may be justified because some government purchases produce benefits well into the future.第21頁/共36頁反對：政府不應該平衡其預算反對：政府不應該平衡其預算Con: The government should not balance its budgetu政府債務能繼續增加，因為人口的增加

23、和技術的進步提高了政府償還債務利息的能力。 The government debt can continue to rise because population growth and technological progress increase the nations ability to pay the interest on the debt.第22頁/共36頁5. 應該修改稅法來鼓勵儲蓄嗎？應該修改稅法來鼓勵儲蓄嗎？Should The Tax Laws Be Reformed to Encourage Saving?第23頁/共36頁贊成：應當為鼓勵儲蓄而修改稅法贊成：應當為鼓勵儲

24、蓄而修改稅法Pro: Tax laws should be reformed to encourage savingu一國的儲蓄率是其長期經濟繁榮的關鍵決定因素。 A nations saving rate is a key determinant of its long-run economic prosperity. u一國的生產能力又主要由它為未來儲蓄和投資了多少而決定。 A nations productive capability is determined largely by how much it saves and invests for the future.u當儲蓄率較高

25、時，更多的資源用于新工廠和設備的投資。 When the saving rate is higher, more resources are available for investment in new plant and equipment.第24頁/共36頁贊成：應當為鼓勵儲蓄而修改稅法贊成：應當為鼓勵儲蓄而修改稅法Pro: Tax laws should be reformed to encourage savingu美國稅制用各種方式抑制儲蓄，例如對來自資本的收入征收重稅，降低了有大量累積財富那些人的利益等。 The U.S. tax system discourages savin

26、g in many ways, such as by heavily taxing the income from capital and by reducing benefits for those who have accumulated wealth.第25頁/共36頁贊成：應當為鼓勵儲蓄而修改稅法贊成：應當為鼓勵儲蓄而修改稅法Pro: Tax laws should be reformed to encourage savingu資本收入的重稅政策帶來的后果是儲蓄減少、資本積累減少、勞動生產率降低以及經濟增長減少。uThe consequences of high capital in

27、come tax policies are reduced saving, reduced capital accumulation, lower labor productivity, and reduced economic growth.第26頁/共36頁贊成：應當為鼓勵儲蓄而修改稅法贊成：應當為鼓勵儲蓄而修改稅法Pro: Tax laws should be reformed to encourage savingu對于目前的稅收政策的一種可供選擇的方法，許多經濟學家都支持用消費稅。 An alternative to current tax policies advocated by

28、 many economists is a consumption tax.u根據消費稅，家庭根據它的支出而不是收入進行征稅。 With a consumption tax, a household pays taxes based on what it spends not on what it earns.u用于儲蓄的授予在以后提取并用于消費品支持之前免稅。 Income that is saved is exempt from taxation until the saving is later withdrawn and spent on consumption goods.第27頁/

29、共36頁反對：不應該為了鼓勵儲蓄而修改稅法反對：不應該為了鼓勵儲蓄而修改稅法Con: Tax laws should not be reformed to encourage savingu為促進儲蓄而產生的稅法變動主要有利于富人。 Many of the changes in tax laws to stimulate saving would primarily benefit the wealthy.u高收入家庭儲蓄占收入的比例高于低收入家庭。High-income households save a higher fraction of their income than low-in

30、come households.u任何有利于進行儲蓄的人的稅收變動也傾向于有利于高收入的人。 Any tax change that favors people who save will also tend to favor people with high incomes.第28頁/共36頁反對：不應該為了鼓勵儲蓄而修改稅法反對：不應該為了鼓勵儲蓄而修改稅法Con: Tax laws should not be reformed to encourage savingu減輕富人的稅收負擔將引起一個更不平等的社會。 Reducing the tax burden on the wealthy

31、 would lead to a less egalitarian society.u這些做法也迫使政府增加窮人的稅收負擔。 This would also force the government to raise the tax burden on the poor.第29頁/共36頁反對：不應該為了鼓勵儲蓄而修改稅法反對：不應該為了鼓勵儲蓄而修改稅法Con: Tax laws should not be reformed to encourage savingu通過減少政府預算赤字而提高公共儲蓄提供了一種增加國民儲蓄的直接而且公平的方法。 Raising public saving by

32、 eliminating the governments budget deficit would provide a more direct and equitable way to increase national saving.第30頁/共36頁總結總結Summaryu積極貨幣與財政政策的支持者認為，經濟本質上是不穩定的，并相信貨幣與財政政策能被用來抵消這種內在的不穩定性。 Advocates of active monetary and fiscal policy view the economy as inherently unstable and believe policy c

33、an be used to offset this inherent instability.u積極政策的批評者強調，政策對經濟的影響存在時滯，而且我們預期未來經濟狀況的能力是很差的，這導致了經濟的不穩定。 Critics of active policy emphasize that policy affects the economy with a lag and our ability to forecast future economic conditions is poor, both of which can lead to policy being destabilizing.第

34、31頁/共36頁總結總結Summaryu貨幣政策規則的支持者認為，相機抉擇的政策會飽受無能、濫用權力與時間不一致性之苦。 Advocates of rules for monetary policy argue that discretionary policy can suffer from incompetence, abuse of power, and time inconsistency.u貨幣政策規則的批評者認為，相機抉擇的政策在對變化著的經濟環境作出反應時較為靈活。 Critics of rules for monetary policy argue that discretionary policy is more flexible in responding to economic circumstances.第32頁/共36頁總結總結Summaryu零通貨膨脹目標的支持者強調，通貨膨脹有許多成本，而且即使有好處也很少。 Advocates of a zero-inflation target emphasize th