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AllianzTrade
Timetowalk
thetalk
AllianzGlobalPensionReport2025
AllianzResearch
AllianzResearch
2
Content
6
ExecutiveSummary
12
Thedemographicchallengepersists
15
Howtoboostthelong-termsustainabilityofpensionsystems
19
Labormarketsarethekeyforsuccessfulpensionreforms
28
Theadequacyofpensionsystemsneedstobeguaranteed,too
34
Appendices
3
30January2025
Executive
Summary
MichaelaGrimm
SeniorEconomist,
Demography&SocialProtection
michaela.grimm@
ArneHolzhausen
HeadofInsurance,Wealth&ESGResearch
arne.holzhausen@
AccordingtothelatestUNforecasts,by2050,thenumberofpeopleaged
65andolderissettoalmostdoublefrom857mnto1578mn.Withdeclining
fertilityratesslowingthegrowthoftheworking-agepopulation,bymid-
century,therewillbe26peopleaged65andolderper100agedbetween15
and64,comparedto16today.Inthiscontext,itiscriticaltoaskwhetherpublicpensionsystemsarepreparedtocopewithdemographicchange.Ontheone
hand,theirlong-termfinancialsustainabilityneedstobeguaranteedtoavoid
anoverburdeningoffutureyoungergenerations.Ontheother,theyneedto
beadequateandguaranteeanincreasingshareofelderlypeopleadecent
livingstandardinoldagetomaintaintheiracceptance.Strictlypay-as-yougo
financedpensionsystems,inwhichthecontributionsoftheworkforcepopulationareusedtofinancethepensionsofcurrentretirees,willnotbeabletomeetbothrequirementsinthelongrun.Thechallengewillbetofindtherightbalance
betweenensuringthesustainabilityandtheadequacyofpensionsystemsatthesametimeandprovidingthenecessarypreconditionsforsupplementarycapital-fundedpensionprovision.Moreover,enablingolderworkerstostayinthelabormarketforlongerwillalsobeessentialtokeepthepublicpensionsystemsin
balance.
Sinceourlastpensionreporttwoyearsago,globalpensionsystemshave
changed,butnotalwaystowardsmoresustainabilityandadequacyinthe
longrun.Thegoodnewsisthatanincreasingnumberofcountriesintendsto
adjusttheirretirementagestothedevelopmentsinfurtherlifeexpectancyin
thelongrun.Therehavealsobeenimprovementsinensuringamoreflexible
transitionfromworktoretirementtokeepolderworkersinthelabormarketforlonger,whichhaveinsomecaseslikelybeenacceleratedbytheincreasingly
noticeableshortageofskilledworkersonthelabormarket.However,insome
cases,pensionreformsthathadalreadybeenannouncedoradoptedhavebeenwatereddownortheirimplementationhasbeenpostponed.InsomeEuropeancountries,pay-as-you-gosystemsmadeacomebackastheinflowofrefugees
andmigrantsinrecentyearshasdampenedthepaceofpopulationaging.
However,immigrationwillnotbeenoughtoprotectpay-as-you-gofinanced
pensionsystemsinagingsocieties.Infact,relyingonimmigrationmayeven
backfireinthelongrunsincethecompetitionforskilledworkersissettoincreaseasmanyoftoday’ssendercountriesarefacedwithagingpopulations,too.
Finally,somechallengesremainedunchanged,liketheneedtoreducetheshareofinformallaborinemergingmarketstocreatethenecessarypreconditionforabroadercoverageoftheirpensionsystems.
AllianzResearch
4
Thisyear,the71countriesinourAllianzPensionIndex(API)recordedan
averagescoreof3.7,whichsuggeststhatglobalpensionsystemsneed
furtherreformstobalancesustainabilityandadequacy.TheAPIisbasedonthreesub-indices–startingpoints,sustainabilityandadequacy–andtakes
intoaccount40parameters.Eachparameterisratedonascaleof1to7,with
grade1signalingnoneedforreforms.Theaveragescoreof4.0inthesub-
indexstartingpointsignalsmediumreformpressure,whiletheaveragescoresinsustainability(3.7)andadequacy(3.5)hintatthefactthatpoliticiansstill
chosedecentpensionlevelsoverimprovingsustainability.Denmarkhasthebestpreparedpensionsystemofallcountries,withanoverallscoreof2.3,whiletheneedforfurtherpensionreformiscomparativelystrongestinSriLanka,witha
scoreof5.0.However,thereisnocountrythattopsallthreesub-indices.Ofthetencountrieswherethepensionsystemsarecomparativelywellpreparedfor
demographicchangeinabroadersense,onlyDenmarkandSwedenareamongthetencountrieswiththeleastreformpressureineachsub-index.
TheUnitedArabEmiratestopsthestartingpointssub-index.Thissub-indexassessesthepaceofdemographicchange,publicindebtednessandgenerallivingstandards,thatis,thestructuralpreconditionsthatanypensionreformhastotakeintoaccount.Inthis,theUnitedArabEmiratesscoredbestwith
anaverageof2.3,thankstoitscomparativelyyoungpopulation,followedbyAustraliaandIsrael,whichalsoscoredwellwithhighlivingstandards,thoughthetotalaveragesof2.6andto2.9reflectthesomewhatweakerrankingswithrespecttofuturefinancialleeway.Laos,MauritiusandTunisiahavetheleastfavorablepreconditionsduetoacombinationofstillcomparativelylowlivingstandardsandhighbudgetdeficits.
Indonesia,DenmarkandBulgariaarethebestperformersinthe
sustainabilitysub-index.Thissub-indexassesseshowwellapensionsystemispreparedtocushiontheimpactofdemographicchange.Supplementary
capital-fundedelements,incentivestopostponeretirement,theintroductionofdemographicfactorsintheadjustmentofretirementbenefitsandadaptingtheretirementagetodevelopmentsinfurtherlifeexpectancyplayacrucialroleinimprovingapensionsystem’slongtermsustainability.Indonesia,DenmarkandBulgariascoredwellwithaveragesbetween2.1and2.3duetotheincreasesintheirretirementagesandthecapital-fundedelementsintheirpensionsystems.Thesub-indexsignalsacomparativelyhighandevenveryhighneedforfurtherreformswithrespecttosustainabilityforBahrain,MalaysiaandSriLanka,
withscoresbetween5.0and5.5.Adaptingretirementagestochangesinlifeexpectancycouldhelptoimprovethesustainabilityofpensionsystemsinthelongrun.
Finally,Denmark,NetherlandsandNewZealandrankthebestinthe
adequacysub-index.Thissub-indexquestionswhetherpensionsystemscanprovideanadequatestandardoflivinginoldage.Here,weincludenotonlythebenefitleveland,mostimportantly,thecoverage,butalsoifthenecessary
30January2025
5
preconditionsforbuildingupasufficientcapitalbolsterareinplaceandiflabor
marketsarealreadyadaptedtotheneedsofanagingworkforcepopulation.
ThecountrieswiththeleastneedforfurtherreformsinthisrespectareDenmark,
NetherlandsandNewZealand,withscoresbetween1.7and2.0.Inallthree
countriessupplementarycapital-fundedoccupationalandprivatepensionprovisionisalreadyamainelementofrespectivepensionsystem.Incontrast,SouthAfrica,
PakistanandLaosarethecountrieswiththehighestneedforfurtherreformsinthisrespect.However,likeinmanyemergingmarkets,thisisnotowedtothestructureofthepensionsystemperse,buttoitslowcoverageduetoahighshareofinformallabor.
The“ideal”pensionsystemblendspay-as-you-gosystemswithstrongcapital-fundedpillars.Countriesthatcombinethetwoarebestpreparedtoweather
demographicchangeandtomasterthebalancebetweensustainabilityand
adequacyinthelongrun.However,functioninglabormarketsarethenecessary
preconditionforanysuccessfulpensionreform,whichmeansincreasingtheshareofformallaborinemergingmarketsandadaptinglabormarketstotheneedsofanagingworkforceinindustrializedcountries.
AllianzResearch
6
Table1:AllianzPensionIndex2025
API2025
BasicConditions
LivingStandard
Financesand
Demography
Sustainability
Preconditions
Finances
Adequacy
FirstPillar
OtherPension
Income
Denmark
2.3
3.2
2.7
3.5
2.3
2.4
2.1
2.0
2.0
2.0
Netherlands
2.6
3.0
2.4
3.3
3.3
2.8
4.1
1.7
1.3
2.1
Sweden
2.6
2.9
2.3
3.4
2.9
3.1
2.7
2.2
2.0
2.3
Japan
2.7
3.7
2.5
4.4
2.4
2.2
2.7
2.4
2.7
2.1
NewZealand
2.8
3.6
3.1
3.9
3.3
4.4
1.6
2.0
2.0
2.0
Israel
3.0
2.9
2.4
3.1
3.0
4.0
1.6
2.9
2.7
3.2
Australia
3.2
2.6
2.1
3.0
3.5
4.1
2.7
3.1
3.6
2.6
UnitedKingdom
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.5
2.8
4.7
2.7
2.9
2.5
Norway
3.2
3.2
2.2
3.9
4.0
4.5
3.3
2.5
2.2
2.8
UnitedStates
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.4
3.9
2.8
3.1
3.0
3.2
Bulgaria
3.3
4.4
5.0
4.0
2.3
2.0
2.7
3.6
3.5
3.8
Belgium
3.3
3.9
2.9
4.5
3.4
3.2
3.6
2.8
3.3
2.4
Taiwan
3.3
4.7
3.8
5.4
3.3
4.0
2.2
2.5
2.2
2.8
Germany
3.3
3.8
3.5
4.0
3.6
3.9
3.1
2.7
2.6
2.7
Portugal
3.3
4.4
3.9
4.8
3.0
2.5
3.8
3.0
2.4
3.7
Canada
3.3
3.0
2.8
3.1
4.1
5.0
2.8
2.8
3.1
2.4
Italy
3.4
4.3
3.0
5.3
3.3
2.4
4.7
2.9
2.6
3.2
CzechRepublic
3.4
3.9
3.9
3.9
2.9
1.7
4.7
3.6
3.0
4.1
France
3.4
3.5
2.7
4.0
3.7
3.6
3.9
3.0
3.0
3.1
Luxembourg
3.4
3.7
2.0
4.9
4.4
4.6
4.2
2.3
1.3
3.2
Switzerland
3.4
3.3
1.8
4.3
4.2
4.8
3.3
2.8
2.7
2.9
Finland
3.4
3.8
3.2
4.2
3.6
3.4
3.8
3.1
3.0
3.2
Korea
3.4
4.2
2.4
5.3
3.2
3.8
2.3
3.3
3.5
3.1
Greece
3.5
4.7
3.9
5.3
2.9
2.2
3.8
3.4
2.5
4.3
Estonia
3.5
4.1
3.9
4.3
2.9
2.6
3.3
3.7
3.8
3.7
Kazakhstan
3.5
4.1
5.3
3.3
3.6
3.8
3.3
3.2
1.8
4.6
Slovakia
3.5
4.6
4.3
4.8
3.4
2.9
4.3
3.0
2.6
3.4
Indonesia
3.5
4.3
5.8
3.3
2.1
1.6
2.7
4.6
4.7
4.5
Cyprus
3.6
4.5
3.2
5.3
3.1
2.3
4.2
3.6
3.2
4.0
Malta
3.6
4.1
2.7
5.0
4.3
4.4
4.1
2.6
2.6
2.6
Singapore
3.6
3.2
1.8
4.1
4.4
4.4
4.4
2.9
3.0
2.8
Austria
3.6
4.1
3.0
4.9
4.1
4.0
4.2
2.8
2.1
3.4
China
3.6
4.5
4.7
4.4
3.8
3.8
3.8
2.9
2.4
3.3
Latvia
3.6
4.6
4.7
4.5
3.6
4.1
2.7
3.1
2.9
3.4
Lithuania
3.6
4.5
4.7
4.4
3.2
3.6
2.6
3.5
3.3
3.7
Turkey
3.6
4.1
4.6
3.8
3.0
2.2
4.1
4.0
3.2
4.7
HongKong
3.7
3.6
1.9
4.8
4.3
5.2
2.9
3.1
3.3
2.9
Ireland
3.7
3.5
2.6
4.2
4.3
4.8
3.6
3.2
2.7
3.7
Spain
3.8
4.2
2.8
5.1
4.4
4.1
4.9
2.9
2.7
3.1
Egypt
3.8
4.6
6.3
3.5
2.6
1.7
3.9
4.5
4.3
4.8
Mexico
3.8
4.4
5.4
3.7
3.0
3.9
1.7
4.2
3.5
4.9
Romania
3.8
4.3
4.6
4.0
3.4
2.4
4.8
4.1
3.9
4.2
Mauritius
3.8
5.2
5.4
5.0
3.9
5.1
2.2
3.1
3.5
2.7
Hungary
3.9
3.9
4.4
3.6
4.0
4.2
3.5
3.7
2.8
4.6
Croatia
3.9
4.7
4.5
4.9
3.5
4.0
2.7
3.9
3.7
4.2
Qatar
3.9
3.0
2.2
3.5
4.0
4.0
3.9
4.3
4.6
4.0
Philippines
3.9
4.3
6.0
3.1
3.7
3.9
3.3
4.1
3.9
4.3
SaudiArabia
4.0
3.8
3.4
4.0
3.5
3.1
4.1
4.5
4.5
4.5
Slovenia
4.1
4.6
3.8
5.2
4.6
4.6
4.7
3.2
3.3
3.2
Kenya
4.1
4.4
6.6
2.8
3.4
3.8
2.8
4.6
5.2
4.0
Peru
4.1
4.0
4.8
3.5
3.5
4.4
2.2
4.7
4.5
4.9
Vietnam
4.1
4.3
5.6
3.5
3.9
3.6
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.3
UnitedArabEmirates
4.1
2.3
2.4
2.2
4.7
5.0
4.3
4.5
4.7
4.2
Argentina
4.1
4.1
4.5
3.9
4.4
3.7
5.4
3.9
3.4
4.4
Cambodia
4.1
4.1
6.2
2.6
3.6
4.4
2.4
4.7
4.5
4.9
Thailand
4.1
4.4
4.6
4.3
4.0
5.2
2.1
4.2
4.2
4.1
Kuwait
4.2
3.6
3.1
3.9
4.4
5.2
3.2
4.2
4.0
4.5
Pakistan
4.2
4.0
7.0
2.0
3.4
3.8
2.6
5.1
5.4
4.9
Brazil
4.2
4.6
4.8
4.4
4.6
3.9
5.7
3.6
2.7
4.6
Colombia
4.2
4.1
4.3
4.0
4.5
4.9
3.8
4.1
3.6
4.5
SouthAfrica
4.3
4.0
5.6
3.0
3.9
4.6
2.7
4.9
5.4
4.3
Tunisia
4.3
4.9
5.3
4.7
4.7
5.7
3.2
3.6
2.8
4.4
Chile
4.3
4.1
3.9
4.2
4.2
5.2
2.8
4.5
4.6
4.5
Nigeria
4.3
3.6
6.9
1.4
4.5
5.2
3.4
4.6
4.8
4.3
Bahrain
4.5
4.4
3.6
5.0
5.0
5.4
4.4
4.0
4.0
3.9
Poland
4.5
4.4
4.2
4.5
4.9
6.1
3.2
4.2
3.9
4.4
Morocco
4.5
4.4
5.4
3.7
4.4
5.0
3.6
4.7
4.5
4.9
India
4.5
4.4
6.4
3.0
4.9
5.2
4.5
4.2
4.3
4.1
Laos
4.6
5.0
6.6
3.9
3.8
4.6
2.7
5.2
5.4
5.1
Malaysia
4.7
4.3
4.7
4.0
5.4
6.0
4.5
4.1
4.8
3.4
SriLanka
5.0
4.4
5.6
3.7
5.5
6.2
4.5
4.8
4.8
4.9
1=noneedforreforms7=highreformpressure
Source:AllianzResearch
30January2025
7
challengepersists
AccordingtothelatestUNforecasts,withinthenext25years,thenumberofpeopleaged65andolderissettoalmostdoublefrom857mntodayto1578mnin2050.
Withdecliningfertilityratesslowingdownthegrowthoftheworking-agepopulation,bymid-century,therewillbe26peopleaged65andolderper100agedbetween15and64,comparedto16today1.
Inthe71countriescoveredinourreport,whichaccountfor75%oftheglobalpopulation2,thefertilityrate
spansfrom0.7childrenperwomaninHongKongto4.4inNigeria.Bothcountriesarealsothelowerand
upperboundarieswithrespecttolifeexpectancy,withtheaveragelifeexpectancyatbirthrangingfrom54.6yearsinNigeriato85.6yearsinHongKong.Andwhiletheaverage65yearoldinHongKongcanexpect
tocelebratehis86thbirthday,theaveragefurtherlife
expectancyofhispeerinNigeriaismerely12.0years.Therangeisevenwiderinthecaseofwomen,from12.3yearsinNigeriato25.3yearsinHongKong.
Therearealsomarkeddifferenceswithrespecttothe
developmentandlevelofcountries’old-age-dependencyratios(OADR).Thisisbecauseofthemarkeddifferences
inthedevelopmentinfertilityrates,whichinmany
industrializedcountriesdroppedbelowtheso-called
reproductionlevelof2.1childrenperwomandecadesago,aswellasinfurtherlifeexpectancy,whichisexpectedto
increaseinthecoveredcountriesbyanaverage2.6yearsinthecaseofmenandby2.2yearsinthecaseofwomenuntil2050(Figures1and2).
1Attheregionalandcountrylevels,therearemarkeddifferencesduetovaryingdevelopmentsinfertilityratesandlifeexpectancy.
2SourceofallpopulationstatisticsisUnitedNations,DepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,PopulationDivision(2024):WorldPopulationPros-pects2024,onlineedition.
AllianzResearch
8
Figure1:Developmentsinfurtherlifeexpectancy,male(inyears)
30
25
FLEmale,65(inyears)
20
15
10
5
0
HongKong
Australia
Japan
Switzerland
Malta
UAE
Norway
France
Canada
Chile
Italy
Sweden
Qatar
Bahrain
NewZealand
Spain
Singapore
Ireland
Belgium
Israel
Luxembourg
Portugal
Netherlands
UK
Austria
Denmark
Greece
SouthKorea
Finland
Taiwan
USA
Germany
Cyprus
Slovenia
Kuwait
SaudiArabia
Peru
Thailand
Czechia
Poland
China
Colombia
Estonia
Slovakia
Malaysia
Mexico
Croatia
Argentina
Brazil
Türkiye
SriLanka
Hungary
Tunisia
Mauritius
Lithuania
Latvia
Romania
Bulgaria
VietNam
Morocco
India
Kazakhstan
Cambodia
Indonesia
SouthAfrica
Egypt
Laos
Philippines
Kenya
Pakistan
Nigeria
1950difference1950to2024difference2024to2050
Sources:UNPopulationDivision(2024),AllianzResearch
Figure2:Developmentsinfurtherlifeexpectancy,female(inyears)
30
25
FLEfemale,65(inyears)
20
15
10
5
HongKong
Japan
SouthKorea
France
Spain
Singapore
Malta
Australia
Switzerland
Italy
Portugal
Canada
Sweden
Belgium
Finland
Norway
Ireland
Austria
Israel
Taiwan
Greece
Chile
Slovenia
Luxembourg
Germany
NewZealand
Netherlands
Denmark
UK
Cyprus
UAE
USA
Estonia
Thailand
Qatar
Poland
Bahrain
Peru
SaudiArabia
Czechia
China
Slovakia
Colombia
Kuwait
Croatia
Lithuania
Argentina
Türkiye
Latvia
SriLanka
Hungary
VietNam
Malaysia
Brazil
Mauritius
Romania
Mexico
Tunisia
Bulgaria
Kazakhstan
Morocco
India
SouthAfrica
Indonesia
Cambodia
Egypt
Philippines
Laos
Kenya
Pakistan
Nigeria
0
1950adifference1950to2024udifference2024to2050
Sources:UNPopulationDivision(2024),AllianzResearch
ThefuturedevelopmentoftheOADR,whichgivesthe
numberofpeopleinretirementageper100personsin
workingage3,variesmarkedlyfromcountrytocountry.Inmostindustrializedcountries,theoverallleveloftheOADRisacauseforconcern,whileinmanyemergingmarketsitistherapidpaceofaging.ThemostrapidlyagingcountriesareHongKong,SouthKorea,TaiwanandSaudiArabia.
Inthesecountries,theOADRissettoalmosttreblewithin
thenext25years.However,whileinSaudiArabiathis
meansanincreasefrom4%to11%,itwillclimbto96%inHongKongandabove70%inTaiwanandSouthKorea.InChina,wherethenumberofpeopleaged65andolderissettoincreasefrom208mntodayto390mn,theOADRissettoincreasefrom21%to52%(Figure3).
30January2025
9
Figure3:OADRdevelopments*(inpercent)
100
90
80
OADR2050(in%)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Cz
erlands
HongKongSA
R
Korea
Taiw
an
Italy
Sp
ain
Slovenia
Greece
Portugal
Japan
China
PolSlovakia
andSwitzerland
.Malta
Austria
Germany
echia
Croa
tia
Bulgaria
Si
ngapore
T
IrelandCana
hailandRoma
Neth
daNorwayHun
niaBelgium
gary
France
Swed
Finland
en
VietN
Türkiye
am
Colombia
Braz
NewZealandil
SriLanka
Argentina
A
USA
ustralia
UK
C
India
ambodia
Malays
Peru
iaMexico
Indonesia
Israel
So
SaudiArabia
BahrK
uthAfrica
Laos
ainenya
Philippin
Egypt
es
Kuwait
UAEQatar
PakisNigeria
tan
OA
DR2024
(in%)
0510152025303540455055
*Thesizeofthebubblereflectsthenumberofpeopleaged65andolderin2050.Sources:UNPopulationDivision(2024),AllianzResearch
Nevertheless,thetop20oldestcountriesintheworldin
2050willbedominatedbymembercountriesoftheEU:
InItaly,Spain,GreeceandPortugal,theOADRsaresettoincreaseabove60%,whileintoday’sbiggestEUeconomy,Germany,thisratioisexpectedtoreach54%.Nigeria,
KenyaandPakistanwillhavetheyoungestpopulationsduetostill-highfertilityratesandcomparativelylowlifeexpectancies(Figure4).
AtthebottomofthisrankingarethegulfstatesQatarandtheUnitedArabEmirates.LikemanyWesterncountries,
theyhaveprofitedfromaconstantinflowofimmigrantsandsteppeduptheireffortstoattractskilledworkers
fromabroadtocushionthedeclineintheirworkforce
populations,whichalsohelpstobolsterthefinancingoftheirpensionsystems.However,besidesignoringthefactthattheyoungandskilledmigrantsoftodaywillbethepensionersoftomorrow,migrationflowshaveproved
toberathervolatileinthepast.Withthecompetition
forskilledimmigrantssettoincreaseinthefuture,and
manyoftoday’ssendercountriesalsogoingtoface
agingpopulations,too,aconstantinflowofskilledlabormigrantsshouldnotbetakenforgranted.Ifnetmigrationwaszero,theOADRinKuwaitwouldreach50%bymid-centuryandtheratioswouldbemarkedlyabove70%inItalyandSpain,andcloserto60%inGermany(Figure5).
3Inordertocomparetheshiftsintheagestructureinthecountries,werefertotheagegroups65andolderand15to64.Atthispointwedonottakeintoaccountthatfutureincreasesinretirementagedampenthegrowthdynamicoftheold-age-dependencyratio.Wealsoabstractfromthefact
thatinmostindustrializedcountriestheaverageagewhenenteringthelabormarketishigherthan15,whichdiminishestheworking-agepopulati-on.
AllianzResearch
10
Figure4:OADR,bycountry,2050(mediumfertilityvariant,inpercent)
100
90
80
70
OADR(in%)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
HongKong
SouthKorea
Japan
Taiwan
Italy
Spain
Greece
Portugal
Slovenia
Poland
Croatia
Austria
Germany
Switzerland
Slovakia
Czechia
China
Estonia
Bulgaria
Malta
Serbia
Thailand
Latvia
France
Finland
Romania
Lithuania
Belgium
Hungary
Norway
Ireland
Netherlands
Cyprus
Chile
Luxembourg
Sweden
Denmark
Canada
Mauritius
Singapore
UK
NewZealand
Australia
USA
Brazil
Türkiye
Tunisia
SriLanka
VietNam
Colombia
Argentina
Peru
Israel
Mexico
Morocco
Malaysia
Indonesia
Kazakhstan
India
Cambodia
SouthAfrica
Philippines
Egypt
Laos
SaudiArabia
Bahrain
Pakistan
Kuwait
Kenya
Nigeria
Qatar
UAE
Source:UNPopulationDivision(2024)
Figure5:OADR,bycountry,2050(zeronetmigrationvariant,inpercent)
100
90
80
70
OADR(in%)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
HongKong
SouthKorea
Japan
Italy
Taiwan
Spain
Greece
Portugal
Slovenia
Switzerland
Austria
Malta
Germany
Poland
Czechia
Croatia
Finland
Thailand
Belgium
Canada
Slovakia
China
France
Luxembourg
Estonia
Kuwait
Ireland
Hungary
Norway
Cyprus
Bulgaria
Serbia
Netherlands
Latvia
Sweden
UK
Denmark
Australia
Romania
Lithuania
Chile
Singapore
NewZealand
Qatar
USA
Mauritius
Bahrain
Uruguay
Brazil
UAE
Türkiye
Colombia
Tunisia
SriLanka
VietNam
Argentina
Malaysia
Peru
Israel
SaudiArabia
Mexico
Morocco
Indonesia
Kazakhstan
India
SouthAfrica
Cambodia
Uzbekistan
Philippines
Egypt
Laos
Pakistan
Kenya
Nigeria
Source:UNPopulationDivision(2024)
30January2025
11
Againstthisbackdrop,thereturnofthepay-as-you-
gofinancedpensionsystemsinsomecountries,which
hasbeenspurredbytheinflowofimmigrantsthathasdampenedtheincreaseoftheOADRs,seemsrather
questionable.Theseroll-backsdidnotnecessarily
implycuttingbackalreadyimplementedinstruments
andreformsofthepay-as-you-go-systems,whichwereaimedatimprovingtheirlong-termsustainability,but
rathersmoothingthem.InGermany,forexample,the
outgoinggovernmentpromisedtokeepthebenefitlevelstableinthelongrunandruledoutfurtherretirement
ageincreases,whileinItalytheautomaticadjustmentoftheretirementagetodevelopmentsinlifeexpectancyisbeingdiscussed.Thisgivestheimpressionthatdespitedemographicchange,thepay-as-you-gofinanced
systemwillguaranteeadecentstandardoflivinginthelongrun,withoutmentioningthecosts,especiallyfor
futuregenerations.
However,inmanycountrieswithmostlypay-as-you-go
financedpensionsystems,publicspendingforold-age
alreadyamountstomorethan10%ofGDP.InItalyand
Greece,theseexpenditurescorrespondtomorethan16%ofGDP.IncountriessuchasHongKongandSingapore,
wherepensionsystemsarecapital-funded,state
expenditureforold-ageisclosetozero.However,atthe
bottomofthislistareCambodia,NigeriaandPakistan,
alsocountrieswithlowcoverageofpensionsystemsandyoungpopulations.Whenthenumberofthoseaged65
yearsandolderlivinginthecountriesistakenintoaccount,theGulfstates,LuxembourgandMaltaareamongthe
mostgenerouscountrieswithrespecttoold-agespending.However,anexplanationforthesecomparativelyhigh
percapitasharescouldbepensionpaymentstomigrantworkerswhoacquiredentitlementstopensionbenefits
duringtheiractiveworkinglivesinthesecountriesandleftafterretiring(Figure6).
Figure6:Old-ageexpenditure(inpercentofGDP)
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1.0
0.9
0.8
(in%ofGDP)
(in%ofGDP)
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Italy
Greece
France
Finland
Austria
Portugal
Japan
Spain
Brazil
Germany
Slovenia
Poland
Belgium
Sweden
Bulgaria
Romania
Luxembourg
Croatia
Slovakia
UK
USA
Czechia
Kuwait
Malta
Cyprus
Latvia
Estonia
Hungary
Denmark
Tunisia
Argentina
Lithuania
Switzerland
Netherlands
Mexico
Mauritius
Norway
Israel
Egypt
China
Taiwan
NewZealand
SouthKorea
Chile
Bahrain
Türkiye
Ireland
Australia
Kazakhstan
SaudiArabia
VietNam
India
Colombia
Canada
Peru
Morocco
Thailand
Malaysia
SouthAfrica
Philippines
SriLanka
UAE
Indonesia
Qatar
Kenya
Laos
HongKong
Cambodia
Pakistan
Singapore
Nigeria
0.0
totalexpenditures(lhs)per10'000personsaged65andolder(rhs)
Sources:ILO,IMF,UNPopulationDivision(2024),AllianzResearch
AllianzResearch
12
Itisofcourseaquestionofpoliticalandsocietal
consensushowmuchasocietyiswillingtospendon
itsolderpopulation.Buttheoptiontofinancefuture
pensionsystemdeficitsoutofthestatebudgetseems
ratherlimitedduetoalreadystrainedstatebudgets.ThisholdsespeciallytrueforcountrieslikeJapan,Greece,
ItalyorSpain,wheretoday’sgrossbudgetdeficitis
alreadyabove100%ofGDP,whiletheirsocietieswillbeamongtheoldestworldwideinthelongrun(Figure7).
Ifwetakeallthesefactors,includingoverallliving
standards,intoaccount,giventhepaceofdemographic
change,theAPIsignalsfor57outofthe71countriesa
mediumorevenhighneedforfurtherpensionsystem
reformsinthefirstsub-index.Thisisahighernumberthanintheothertwosub-indices(Figure8).Tunisia,Laosand
Mauritiushavethehighestneedsforfurtherreformsduetoacombinationofstillcomparativelylowlivingstandardsandhighbudgetdeficits.TheUnitedArabEmirates,
AustraliaandIsraelhavethelowestneedforreforms.
Figure7:Grossbudgetdeficit,2024(inpercentofGDP)
275
250
225
(in%ofGDP)
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
Japan
Singapore
Greece
Italy
Bahrain
USA
France
Laos
Canada
Belgium
SriLanka
Spain
UK
Portugal
Argentina
Egypt
China
Brazil
Tunisia
India
Finland
Mauritius
Austria
SouthAfrica
Hungary
Cyprus
Kenya
Pakistan
Morocco
Malaysia
Israel
Slovenia
Thailand
Germany
Croatia
Slovakia
Mexico
Philippines
Colombia
Romania
Poland
Korea
Nigeria
Australia
Malta
NewZealand
Latvia
Netherlands
Czechia
Norway
Ireland
Qatar
Chile
Indonesia
Lithuania
Sweden
Peru
Vietnam
Switzerland
UAE
SaudiArabia
Denmark
Luxembourg
Cambodia
Taiwan
Türkiye
Kazakhstan
Bulgaria
Estonia
HongKong
Kuwait
0
Sources:IMF
Figure8:DistributionoftheAPIresults
45
35
25
15
5
-5
1234567
API2025---BasicConditionsSustainabilityAdequacy
Source:AllianzResearch
30January2025
13
termsustainabilityof
pensionsystems
Thereareseveraloptionstoincreasethelong-term
sustainabilityofthepublicpensionsystems,including
increasingcontributionrates,prolongingtheminimumcontributionperiodnecessarytoclaimanearlyorfull
pension,earlyretirementdeductionsandrewardsfor
postponingretirement,abuilt-indemographicfactorinthepensionformulatoadjustbenefitlevelsinlinewiththedevelopmentoftheaveragefurtherlifeexpectancy,raisingtheretirementage,theintroductionofcapital-fundedelementsinthefirstpillar,and,lastbutnotleastloweringtheoverallpensionbenefitlevel.However,theimplementationofsomeofthesemeasurescanhave
unwantedsideeffects.
Forexample,raisingcontributionratesnotonlyincreasesthefinancialburdenoncontributionpayersbutitcan
alsomakethecountrylessattractiveforlabormigrants.Anyincreasealsoimplieshigherlaborcosts,whichmightdiminishcompanies’internationalcompetitiveness.It
couldalsotriggeraflightintotheinformallabormarkettoavoidcontributions,especiallyiftheexpectedfuturepensionpayoutsareconsideredincommensuratewith
contributionsmade.Theaveragecontributionrateintheanalyzedcountriesstandsat18%,withtheratesin28ofthecountriesbeingabove20%.Whilethereisnoagreeduponupperlimitofcontributionrates,thealready
relativelyhighlevelinmanycountriesleavesonlylimitedleewayforfurtherincreases.
Alli
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