hRMI

Hydrogen:

Madein

America,

forAmerica

WhymaintainingUSenergyleadershiprequiresarobustandsizeable

hydrogenmarket

Report/March2025

AuthorsandAcknowledgments

Authors

TessaWeiss

KateHickey

JoaquinRosas

OleksiyTatarenko

ChristinaPastoria

AllauthorsarefromRMIunlessotherwisenoted.

RMIContributors

ChathurikaGamage

KaitlynRamirez

CoreyStewart

AbbyMartin

MaeveMasterson

Contacts

TessaWeiss,tweiss@

OleksiyTatarenko,otatarenko@

CopyrightsandCitation

TessaWeiss,KateHickey,JoaquinRosas,OleksiyTatarenko,ChristinaPastoria,Hydrogen:MadeinAmerica,forAmerica,RMI,2025,

/insight/hydrogen-made-in-america-for-america

.

RMIvaluescollaborationandaimstoacceleratetheenergytransitionthroughsharingknowledgeand

insights.Wethereforeallowinterestedpartiestoreference,share,andciteourworkthroughtheCreativeCommonsCCBY-SA4.0license.

/licenses/by-sa/4.0/

.

AllimagesarefromRMIunlessotherwisenoted.

Acknowledgments

ThisreportwaswrittenwithsupportfromBreakthroughEnergy.Viewsreflectthoseoftheauthorsandnotnecessarilythoseofthesupportingorganization.

Hydrogen:MadeinAmerica,forAmerica/2

Hydrogen:MadeinAmerica,forAmerica/3

hRMi

AboutRMI

RMIisanindependentnonprofit,foundedin1982asRockyMountainInstitute,thattransformsglobal

energysystemsthroughmarket-drivensolutionstoalignwitha1.5°Cfutureandsecureaclean,

prosperous,zero-carbonfutureforall.Weworkintheworldsmostcriticalgeographiesandengage

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TableofContents

ExecutiveSummary 5

TheGlobalHydrogenOpportunity 8

BuildinganAmericanHydrogenMarket 10

Avisionforsuccess 10

Firstmoversfollowthedemand 12

Costsremainhighformanydomesticofftakers 15

First-moverrisksnarrowcommercialopportunitiesandcapitalaccess 17

StrengtheningUSHydrogenDemand 20

UShydrogendemanddrivers 20

Roleofpolicy 22

Roleofmarketmechanisms 24

ThePathForward 28

Appendix 33

AppendixA:CostParityGraphs 33

AppendixB:MethodologyandAssumptions 35

Endnotes 38

Hydrogen:MadeinAmerica,forAmerica/5

ExecutiveSummary

HydrogenisastrategiceconomicandenergyopportunityfortheUnitedStates.By2050,itcouldsupply

10%-15%oftheworld’senergyanddriveamarketwith$2.5trillioninannualrevenue,strengthening

America’sindustrialbase,energysecurity,andgloballeadership.1Hydrogenisthemostscalable,low-

emissionssolutionforproducingessentialcommoditieslikesteel,petrochemicals,fertilizers,andmaritimeshippingoraviationfuels,ensuringUSindustriesremaincompetitiveintherapidlyshiftingglobaleconomy.2

Countriesworldwidearemovingquicklytosecurethisopportunity.A$680billionglobalprojectpipelinehasbeenannounced,targetingcompletionby2030,and$75billionhasreachedFinalInvestmentDecision(FID).3However,theUSmarketisstrugglingtotakeoffdespiteabundantnaturalresources,leading

innovations,andsignificanttaxincentives.Ofthe17millionmetrictons(MMT)supplypipeline,lessthan10%havereachedFID,with60%yettobeginfeasibilityplanning.4

Despitegoodprogressmadeinthepastseveralyears,theUShydrogenindustryfacesheadwindsand

slowscale-up.Thisisdrivenbyweakdomesticdemand,causedbyfragmentedanddelayedpolicyandchallengedeconomicsinmanyofftakesectors.Asaresult,UShydrogenproducershaveincreasingly

lookedatnon-USmarketstoexportUSsupply,whichofferstronger,policy-backeddemand.This

demandvectorcreatesexposuretowidertraderelationshipsbetweentheUnitedStatesandprospectiveimportingcountries,andonitsownisnotsufficienttoputAmericaintoastrongleadershipposition.

Domestically,producersmayseesmallermarketopportunities,suchasfeedstockforsustainable

aviationfuel(SAF)producersorasfuelsforon-roadtransportationinthestateswithlowcarbonfuelstandards(e.g.,California).Thesepocketsofdemandwillbeinsufficienttoscaletheburgeoning

Americanhydrogenindustry.

Meanwhile,othercountriesareactivelybuildingmarkets,securingsupplychains,andpositioning

themselvesasfutureenergyleaders.ThemoreAmerica’smarketlags,themoreitrisksfallingbehind.

?Chinadominateslow-costelectrolyzermanufacturing,championedbystate-directedindustrialpolicy,givingitanedgeinsupplyingglobalmarkets.Thisstrongfocusonelectrolytichydrogenisunderpinnedbyitsworld-classfoundationofrenewablepowerresources.

?TheEuropeanUnionisimplementingcoordinatedpoliciestolowercosts,drivedemand,andtransitionfromfossilfuelsandfeedstocks.Significantsupportandsubsidiesattheblock’slevel(e.g.,EuropeanHydrogenBank)andmembershiplevel(e.g.,H2Global)pairwithdevelopedinfrastructureplansandlinkhydrogenimplementationto€100billionoffundingavailableby2030initsCleanIndustrialDeal

?Japanisactivelypromotingmarketgrowthandseekinglong-termtradepartnershipsthroughits

$19billionContractforDifference(CfD)subsidyscheme.5Japaneseindustrialandenergyconglomeratesareactivelyinvestinginlargescalehydrogenprojectsabroadandleadtechnologydevelopment.

Americaneedstoactnowifitwantstoremaintheworld’senergyleader,ashydrogenmarketgrowthis

goingtohappenwithorwithoutitsparticipation.Withoutfurtheraction,USindustryrisksmissingmarketshareintheemergentglobalhydrogenmarket,alongsideshareofcurrentgloballytradedcommodities

Hydrogen:MadeinAmerica,forAmerica/6

likesteel,fertilizers,fuels,andchemicals.ActionstodaycanensureUSindustryremainsself-reliantandprosperousforyearstocome,withAmericasettingtherulesoftheglobalmarketplace.

Tosecureleadershipandattractprivateinvestment,USstateandfederalpolicymakerscouldprovidetheholisticsupportitshydrogenindustryneedstosucceed,addressingcoregapsillustratedinExhibitES1.Existingsupply-sideincentivesarecritical,andmarketmechanismswillcatalyzefirst-movertransactions,buttheyarenotasubstituteforpolicy-backeddemand.

ExhibitES1HighlightedneedsinestablishinganAmericanhydrogenmarket

PresentInformation,small-scale,and/orlimitedstateapplicabilityAbsent

HYDROGENUSER/COMMODITYBUYER

Maritimeshipping,aviation,steel,fertilizer,petrochemicals,andtrucking

HYDROGENSUPPLY

Challenge:Costpremiumremains

Need:Demand-sidepolicytoclosecostgapand/orraisebuyerWTP

H2supplypolicy

incentives

Adoptionmandates’

targets’emissionsregulations

Fiscalincentives

(e.g.,CfD)

Buyersalliances

andbookandclaim

(Thesesupportfirstmovers,but

won’tdrivewidespreadadoption)

Challenge:Limitedinfrastructuretoderiskinvestments

Need:Cross-valuechaininfrastructurepolicysupport

H2pipeline’

storagesupport

(i.e.regulatoryclarity,fiscalincentives)

Tailoredend-use

infrastructuresupport

(i.efiscalincentives)

Infrastructureneed

SupportforH2pipelinesandstorage

addressesinfrastructureneeds

Purchaseand

saleagreements

Demandpolicylever

Demand marketmechanism

RMIGraphic.Source:RMIAnalysis.

Hydrogen:MadeinAmerica,forAmerica/7

TosolidifythefoundationdrivingtheUShydrogenmarkettoday,USfederalpolicymakerscouldconsiderthefollowingactions:

1.RetainfederalincentivesthatdriveUSmarketmomentumtoday.WithintheInflationReductionAct(IRA),the45Vhydrogenproductioncredits,45Ycleanelectricityproductioncredit,48Eenergyinvestmenttaxcredits,45Qcarbonstorageandsequestrationcreditsarecritical.Continue

implementationguidancefor45V.H2HubsfundingintheInfrastructureInvestmentandJobsAct(IIJA)shouldbemaintainedtoadvancedevelopmentofthesevenUShydrogenhubs.

2.PromotedevelopmentofUShydrogenexportsbysecuringlong-termtradeagreementsviagovernment-to-governmentnegotiations,strengtheningport-to-portrelations,harmonizingstandardsforlow-emissionhydrogen,andmobilizingstateandfederalfundingforport-side

infrastructure.

Tobuilduponitsfoundationandattractsustainedprivateinvestment,theUnitedStatescandomoreto

bolsteritsdomestichydrogenmarket.Stateandfederalpolicymakerscouldconsiderthefollowingactions:

3.Increasedemand-sidesupportshydrogenandhydrogen-madecommodities,includinglow-carbonsteel,fertilizers,petrochemicals,maritimeandaviationfuel,andfertilizers.Supportcanincludecontract-for-differenceincentivesindexedtothepriceofincumbentfuelsorconventionalcommodities,fixed$/kghydrogensubsidieswithspecifiedend-useorsuppliereligibilitycriteria,government-backedprocurement,orregulationsliketheLow-CarbonFuelStandard(LCFS).

4.Strengthensupportstodevelophydrogenpipelineandstorageinfrastructurethatwill

deriskdeployment,buildUSenergyresilience,andfacilitatelonger-termmarketliquidity.Policymakingcanincludeproactiveinfrastructureplanning,streamliningpermittingandfederal

decisionmakingviaestablishingfederaljurisdictionforinterstatehydrogenpipes,andofferingfirst-moverfinancialincentives.

ThisreportwilldemonstratewhyhydrogenisstrategicforAmericatomaintainitsenergyleadership

astheglobalracetoattractinvestmentsintensifies.Itwillexaminethecurrentinvestmentlandscape,

outliningprojectdriversandmarketbarriers—includingcostpremiumsandprojectrisks—withcase

studiesinexports,on-roadmobility,aviation,steel,andmaritimeshipping.Itofferspolicyoptionsthatcanstrengthendemandandderiskinfrastructuredevelopment,illustratingthepathwaytounleashwidespreadinvestments,promotedomesticindustrialgrowth,andsolidifyenergyleadership.

Hydrogen:MadeinAmerica,forAmerica/8

TheGlobalHydrogenOpportunity

Globally,hydrogenhasthepotentialtosupply10%to15%offinalenergyconsumptionby2050—an

estimated$2.5trillionglobalinvestmentopportunity.6Hydrogenisthemostcost-effective,low-emissionssolutionforproducingcommoditieslikesteel,maritimefuels,fertilizers,oraviationfuels.Todate,a

$680billionglobalprojectpipelinehasbeenannounced,targetingcompletionby2030.$75billionhas

reachedFinalInvestmentDecision(FID)across434projects.7Twentygigawatts(GW)ofelectrolysisprojectscapableofproducing>2millionmetrictons(MMT)arebreakingground,andgas-basedsupplyreaching

FIDnearlydoubledin2024to2.3MMT.Low-carbonhydrogenisontracktoreach>5%thesizeoftheglobal75MMT,capital-intensivehydrogenindustryinjustafewyears.8

Hydrogenmarketsarestartingtodeveloparoundtheworld,leveragingdifferentregionalpolicysupports,

naturalresources,andsupplychainadvantages.Hydrogenanditsderivativeslikeammoniaandmethanol

areemergingasstrategicenergycommodities.FossilfueldemandinOrganisationforEconomicCo-OperationandDevelopment(OCED)countriespeakedin2007,supplychainsarebecomingredefined,andnew

regulatorylandscapeswilldictatemarketaccessandgeopoliticalinfluence.Thosewiththestrongestmarketwillsetglobalstandards,shapetradeflows,andsecurelong-termeconomicandgeopoliticalleverage.

MaintainingUSenergyleadershipnowrequiresbuildingarobustandsizeablehydrogenindustry.While

Americaremainsagloballeaderinenergytechnologyinvestment—rankingsecondin2024with$338

billionininvestmentsdirectedtowardrenewables,energystorage,electrifiedtransport,andpowergrids—itlagssignificantlyinhydrogeninvestment.Withonly$200millioninvestedinUShydrogenin2024

comparedwithChina’s$2billionandtheEuropeanUnion’s$3billion,theUnitedStatesrisksfallingbehindinscalingdomesticelectrolyzerproductionandinfrastructure.9

Meanwhile,theEU,Japan,andSouthKoreaaredrivinghydrogendemandwithaggressivetargetsand

policiestotransitionfromfossilfuelsandenhanceenergysecurity.Withlimiteddomesticenergyresources,theseregionstargethydrogenimportstosecureacleanandstableenergysupply.TheEUisbuildinga

holisticregulatoryandpolicyframeworkdesignedtode-riskinvestments,stimulatemarketadoption,andbridgethecostgapbetweenconventionalandrenewablehydrogen,fosteringamorecompetitivehydrogeneconomy.Japan’s￥3trillion($19billion)ContractforDifference(CfD)schemeaimstospurlong-term

supplyagreementsandboostmarketconfidence.

Countrieswithabundantresourcesandcostadvantagesarescalinguphydrogenproduction.Brazil,Chile,Morocco,andNamibiahavestrongexportandindustrialpotential.India,leveraginglow-costrenewablesandgrowingindustrialdemand,isemergingasakeyelectrolytichydrogensupplierwithglobaltrade

ambitions.Morocco,SaudiArabia,andtheUAEaresolidifyingtheirroleashydrogenpowerhouses,usingnaturalgas,solar,andwindtoproducehydrogen.Withlarge-scaleprojectslikeNEOM’s$8.4billionplant,theregionispositioningitselfasalow-costsuppliertoEuropeandAsia.

EstablishedenergyexporterslikeAustraliaandCanadaarepoisedtoleveragetheirexistinginfrastructureandtradenetworkstointegratehydrogenintoglobalsupplychains.Thesecountriesareformingstrategictradepartnershipsandfocusingonlarge-scaleexportinfrastructureandsupplychainintegration,

reinforcingtheirroleasreliablesuppliersforkeydemandregions.

Hydrogen:MadeinAmerica,forAmerica/9

Exhibit1Current(2023)andprojectedgeographicconcentrationofelectrolyzermanufacturing

ChinaEUUSOther

Current

41%19%

19%

21%

PipelineofProjects

26%

24%

21%

28%

RMIGraphic.Source:IEA,TheStateofCleanTechnologyManufacturing,

/reports/the-state-of-clean

-technology-manufacturing.

Chinaisexpandingitsinfluenceacrossemergingmarketsandpresentlyownsthemeansoflow-cost

manufacturing.Chineseelectrolyzermanufacturersareaggressivelyseekingoverseasopportunitiesfor

exports,followingChina’swell-establishedstrategyinsolarpanelsandwindturbines.Chinacurrently

accountsfor41%ofglobalelectrolyzermanufacturingcapacity,withproductioncostslessthanone-thirdofthoseintheUnitedStates(Exhibit1).10China’shydrogenedgemayenableittoseeafirstmoveradvantageinmanufacturingelectrolyzersorexportinghydrogen-basedproductslikegreensteelande-fuels.

EstablishingastronghydrogenmarketisessentialtoensureUSleadership.Otherwise,USsupplychains

mayfallbehindinternationalcompetitors,andtheUnitedStatesmayfailtopositionitselfasanintegral

tradepartnerinthisrapidlyevolvingnewcommoditylandscape.USinnovatorsmayleaveforamarket

moreconducivetotechnologycommercialization.RegardlessofwhethertheUnitedStatesleadsthisglobalmarketplace,itsbusinesseswillbesubjecttoitsrulesandrepercussions.Evolvinginternationalstandardsarealreadyreshapingcommoditymarketsandsupplychains.Notably,theEuropeanUnion’sCarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanismwillimposeimporttariffsoncarbon-intensivegoodssuchassteel,aluminum,andpetrochemicals(plastics,textiles,etc.),requiringexporterstoeitheralignwithEUcarbontargetsorpaya

financialpenaltyandrisklosingmarketaccess.Thesemeasuresmayacceleratetheglobaladoptionoflow-carbonmanufacturing,directlyaffectingUShydrogenandindustrialexportersiftheydonotkeeppace.

Hydrogen:MadeinAmerica,forAmerica/10

BuildinganAmericanHydrogenMarket

Americahasalreadytakenstrategicstepstogivethecountryanedgeincapturingthisnewenergy

opportunity.PoliciesintheInflationReductionAct(IRA)andInfrastructureInvestmentandJobsAct

(IIJA)provideastrongfoundationformarketgrowth.TaxcreditswithintheIRAaredrivingdowncostsforhydrogenproduction(section45V),electricity(section45Yand48E),andcarbonsequestration(section

45Q).WithIRAtaxcredits,US-producedhydrogenbecomessomeoftheworld’slowest-costsupply

hydrogen,onparwithotherlow-costproductionregionsinBrazil,China,India,andSpain.11TheIIJA’s

$7billionRegionalCleanHydrogenHubs(H2Hubs)programisanticipatedtocatalyze$40billioninprivateinvestmentsacrossthecountry.12Intotal,theseincentiveshavemotivatedaprojectpipelinetotalingnearly17MMTsplitacrosselectrolyticandgas-basedproductionpathways,iandananticipated$90billionof

investmentsacrossproduction,midstream,andend-uses.13

However,whiletheUnitedStateshasstrongsupply-sidefoundations,domesticdemandisweak.Americanproducersfaceongoinguncertainty,uncompetitiveeconomics,andhighinvestmentrisks.Ofthetotal

17MMTUSprojectpipeline,lessthan10%havereachedFIDand60%havenotyetenteredthefeasibilitystage.14Undercurrentmarketconditions,USproducersmayberestrictedtosellingtheirhydrogento

competitormarkets,withUStaxdollarsspurringgrowthandprivateinvestmentsoutsidetheUnitedStates.Domesticdemandwillremainnarrow,andopportunitiestorevitalizetheUSindustrialbackboneslim—

includingitssteel,petrochemicals,fertilizers,maritimefuels,andaviationfuelsproduction.

Avisionforsuccess

TheNationalPetroleumCouncil(NPC)recentlybroughttogetherUShydrogenindustryleaderstochart

America’svisionforsuccess.TheNPCenvisionsamarket7.5timeslargerthantoday’s,builtonadiversifiedhydrogensupplytopowerAmerica’sindustrialbackbone.ThisvisionoffersapathtodiversifyUSenergywithinnovationdeployingalongsideacontinuationofUSfossilfuelsusedfornewapplications.15There

isastrongrolefornewertechnologieslikehydrogenelectrolysis,whichNPCapproximatesdriving75%ofsupplyinamaturemarket,withnaturalgas-reformedhydrogenwithcarboncapture,utilization,andstorage(CCUS)estimatedtosupplytheremainderofthemarket.16Realizationofthisvisionwillbea

significantexpansionfromhydrogen’smoreminorroleintheUnitedStateseconomy,whichcurrentlysupplies~10MMTofunabated,naturalgas-reformedhydrogenpredominatelyforoilrefining,ammoniaproduction,orothersmallindustrialprocesses.

Hydrogenbuildsuponthenation’srichnaturalresourcesthatensureitsenergyindependenceandgrowth.TheGulfCoast’senergyleadership;stronggas,solar,andwindresources;andsizablebaseofindustrial

consumersstrategicallypositiontheregiontoattractsignificantprivateinvestmentthroughenergy

diversification.TheMidwestistheagriculturalandsteelbackboneofAmerica,seessignificantpotentialforruralinvestmentandjobcreation,withhydrogenofferingapathwaytoleverageitsuntappednaturalresourcesfornewinvestments.TheWestboastsgrowingdemandforthenextgenerationofmaritime,

iHubprojectsare50/50gas-basedandelectrolytic-basedproduction;nonhubprojectsseea60/40split,respectively,favoringautothermalreformingforgas-basedsupplytechnology.

Hydrogen:MadeinAmerica,forAmerica

/11

Exhibit2ThehydrogenlandscapeacrossthecontinentalUnitedStates

Hydrogenhub

projectlocationsCO2pipeline

High

Low

Saltdeposits

(H2storagepotential)CO2storageproject

High

Existing

Low

ammoniaplantsandrefineries

Bubblesizescaledbyemissions

Solarandwindpotentialbystate(GWh)

WestCoast

?2hydrogenhubs(CaliforniaARCHES,PacificNorthwest)

?Existingmarkets:mobility(lightduty,transit)

Midwest

?2hydrogenhubs

(Heartland,Midwest)

?Abundantwind

resourcesand

hydrogenstoragepotential

?NaturalgasandCO2storageopportunities

?Newmarkets:

fertilizer,steel,aviation

GulfCoast

?1hydrogenhub(HyVelocity)

?Abundantrenewableenergyresourcesandhydrogenstoragepotential

?Abundantrenewableenergyresources

?Newmarkets:maritime,

aviation,heavydutymobility

?NaturalgasandCO2storageopportunities?Existingmarkets:refining,ammonia

?Newmarkets:export,maritime

RMIGraphic.Sources:EnvironmentalSystemResearchInstituteArcgis,

/home/index.html

;National

RenewableEnergyLaboratory;CleanAirTaskForce;PipelineandHazardousMaterialsSafetyAdministration;SandiaNational

Laboratories;DepartmentofEnergyOfficeofCleanEnergyDemonstrations;ClimateTRACE(TrackingReal-TimeAtmosphericCarbonEmissions);EnvironmentalProtectionAgencyFLIGHT(FacilityLevelInformationonGreenhousegasesTool).

aviation,orheavy-dutymobilityfuels,anditsstatepolicieslikelowcarbonfuelstandardswilldrivenewinvestments.Exhibit2illustratesthehydrogenlandscapeacrosstheUnitedStates.

Hydrogenwillbringjobsandeconomicrevitalizationacrossthecountry.Keyindustriessuchassteel,refining,andpetrochemicalscanmodernizefacilitieswhilecreatinghigh-qualityjobs.iiThenation’ssevenfederallyfundedhydrogenhubsareanticipatedtogenerate330,000directandindirectjobs,spanningconstruction,manufacturing,engineering,andoperations.Anexpected670,000cumulativejobsperyearcouldbe

generatedifthelow-carbonhydrogenmarketmatchesthesizeoftoday’s10MMTunabatedsupply.17

TheNationalPetroleumCouncilalsosuggeststhatwithoutfurthersupport,Americamayfailtorealizeitspotential,estimatingonlyadoublingofitscurrentmarket,alimiteddegreeofnewinnovation,andnarrowindustrialgrowth.iiiRealizingNPC’svisionwillrequireholisticsupporttodiversifytheexistinghydrogen

marketwhilesimultaneouslygrowingamuchlarger,newmarketofhydrogenusedinnewend-useslikesteel,maritimefuels,oraviationfuels.Successwillrequiretheconditionsformarket-basedcompetitionofdifferentsupplytechnologiesanddifferentend-uses.

iiFormoreinformationseeadditionalRMIresources:

/reline-or-revitalize-the-narrowing-window-to-

modernize-the-us-steel-industry/

,

/insight/capturing-the-benefits-of-industrial-decarbonization-

for-houston-and-beyond/

iiiBasedontheNPCStatedPoliciesScenariosintheHarnessingHydrogenreport.

Hydrogen:MadeinAmerica,forAmerica

/12

Strategicadvantagesofsupply-sidecompetition

EnsuringthatUShydrogenproducersseealevelplayingfieldcanexpandhydrogenmarketopportunities,offernewofftakepossibilities,andpromoteUSenergyindependencebyonshoringnext-generationsupplychains.Investinginbothelectrolyticproductionalongsidegasproductionoffersstrategicbenefitsof

expandingaccesstoglobalanddomesticmarkets.ElectrolytichydrogenseespublicfundingsupportinEurope,ivandWestCoastpoliciesalsotendtosupportelectricity-basedsupply.ForUSproducerslookingtoexporttoEurope,Japan,andSouthKorea,low-emissionsproductionenablesaccesstoandderisksinvestmentsoverthelonglifeoftheseassets(30years).

Investmentsinelectrolysisalongsidegas-basedproductionexpandsthenumberofaccessibleUSofftakers.Forexample,thesupplyprofileofelectrolytichydrogencanmakemoresenseforhydrogen-steelproducersandsupportproductionreachingnear-zeroemissionstomeetemergingproductstandards.18DRIplants

canbefednaturalgasorhydrogen,andusingnaturalgasdirectlymaybemorecostefficientthanturningthatnaturalgasintohydrogenfeedstock.Similarly,syntheticaviationfuels(PtL)requireelectrolytic

hydrogentoreachtherequired50%emissionsreductionthresholdsforSAFfederalcreditseligibility.19Themodularityofelectrolysismaybesuitableforsmallerscaleandflexibleofftake,likeheavydutymobility.Meanwhile,existinghydrogenuserslikerefineriesorammoniaproducersmayseecontinuedpreferenceforsteam-methanereformingprocesseswithcarboncapture.Newhigh-volumeindustrialusersmayseeadvantagesforautothermalreformingwithcarboncaptureintheabsenceofnewhydrogenpipelinesorstoragedevelopments.

SecuringaprojectpipelineforelectrolysiswillcontinueAmerica’smomentuminonshoringnewsupply

chainsforelectrolyzers,kickstartedbytheIRA’s45VcreditsandtheIIJA’sH2Hubfunding.USelectrolyzer

manufacturersarescalinginvestments,withnewfactoriesfromPlugPower,BloomEnergy,andCumminsadding~3GWofannualmanufacturingcapacitybytheendof2024andannouncedfacilitiestargeting10GWperyearby2030.20ThesepolicieshavealsoattractedEuropeanmanufacturers,includingJohnCockerill,

Topsoe,andNelASA,toestablishaUSproductionbase.However,tomaintainthisgrowthtrajectory,electrolyzermanufacturersmustcontinuetoseeaviablehydrogenmarketwithinAmerica;otherwise,manufacturersmayinvestinothercountriesandUSmanufacturingcapacitywillb