13金光市場發展策略4全球運營商發展趨勢&市場發展策略案例分析目錄印尼電信市場概況2印尼市場未來預測CountryOverviewNationalArea:1,919,440sqkmBytheendoftheyear2007,thetotalpopulationofIndonesiaisabove235millions,andthepopulationgrowthrateis1.213%.Intheyear2007,theGDP(PurchasingPowerParity)isestimatedtobe1038.3

billionUSDandGDPpercapita(PPP)isabout4616

USD.TheGDPwouldrecoverafterthedevastatingDecember2004tsunamiandanearthquakeincentralJavainMay2006.Source:Geographic.org/CIAworldfactbook2007PopulationofIndonesia(2002-2007)GDP(PPP)andrealgrowthrateofIndonesia(2002-2007)Fixed-linegrowthhasbeendrivenbythedeploymentoffixedwirelessservices.Mobilesubswillreach100millionsbytheendof2007.It’sestimatedthatpenetrationwillreach37%in2007,whichstillisaquitelowlevel.Internetpenetrationisverylow;thissituationisunsurprisingwhenthecountry'slowfixedandPCpenetrationlevelsaretakenintoaccount.KeyTelecommunicationIndicatorsinIndonesiaSource:GlobalInsight,ITU.TelecomOverviewOperatorsOverviewThereare2fixednetworkoperatorsinIndonesia.PTTelkomisthegovernment-owneddominantplayer.PTIndosat,alsostilllargelygovernment-owned,isthemarket'salternativeprovider.Thereare11mobileoperators.5areGSMand6areCDMAoperators.ButPTTelkomselandPTIndosataretwomainoperatorsinthemarket.FixedOperatorsinIndonesiaMobileOperatorsinIndonesiaTelkomIndosat

SummaryThecountryhasarelativelargepopulationwithsteadyincreasingtrend.TheeconomyofIndonesiaisrecoveringfromtheconstantlydisastersandboostinginrecentyears.Themobilenetworkisdevelopingsteadily,whilefixednetworkisstagnant.Moreplayersimportmorefiercecompetitiontotelecommarket,whichforcestheresourceoftelecomindustrytoberedistributed,aswellasmakethenetworkusagemoreefficient.13金光市場發展策略4全球運營商發展趨勢&市場發展策略案例分析目錄印尼電信市場概況2印尼市場未來預測ForecastofMobilePenetration10%90%EntryPeriodFastestgrowthperiodStableGrowthPeriodPopulationbelowpovertyline:17.8%,15-64years:65.6%ForecastofDifferentNetworkForecastofDifferentOperatorGSMOperator20082009201020112012用戶增長量合計Telkomsel4401500044126000418920003672100029749000-14266000Indosat2445600026132000254320002288100018017000-6439000Excelcomindo161230001681900015215000119870008578000-7545000Hutchison25710002345000202700016300001199000-1372000NTS44100138500227100257800230000185900合計8720910089560500847931007347680057773000-29436100CDMATelkom78640009097000994100010460000107400002876000BakrieTel470600057850006641000729400077940003088000Mobile-8341620040017004499000490290052290001812800Indosat71200086100094500010060001049000337000Sampoerna(STI)207000510000921000137700018450001638000SmartTelecom4010008050001258000172600021200001719000合計173062002105970024205000267659002877700011470800W-CDMATelkomsel80260001494800022553000316250004135500033329000Excelcomindo121400032030006836000115160001593200014718000Hutchison111330025700003841000495200059220004808700Indosat7250001723000411600075430001271100011986000NTS1470096000266000547000920000905300合計110930002254000037612000561830007684000065747000Smart'sCompetitorsinIndonesia-MarketShareSmart'sCompetitorsinIndonesia-FinanceReport

網絡類型運營商名稱Q42005Q42006Q32007EBITDA(USDmillions)CDMABakrieTel0.9620.9916.58GSMExcelcomindo46.5769.7496.03GSMIndosat165.34206.02N/ACDMAMobile-8(FREN)N/A6.5712.4GSMTelkomsel493.09623.04729.74Revenue–Total(USDmillions)CDMABakrieTel20.8852.0544.59GSMExcelcomindo119.57N/A227.48GSMIndosat268.11N/AN/ACDMAMobile-8(FREN)N/A20.6533.87GSMTelkomselN/AN/A1,273.80ARPU(USD)CDMABakrieTel10.786.385.74GSMExcelcomindo6.965.065.61GSMIndosat6.96.6N/ACDMAMobile-8(FREN)5.454.924.55GSMTelkomsel8.59.248.69Smart'sCompetitorsinIndonesia-PrepaidProduct13金光市場發展策略4全球運營商發展趨勢&市場發展策略案例分析目錄印尼電信市場概況2印尼市場未來預測SmartMarketingOverview–

Terminal&PromotionLow-endhandsetHigh-endhandsetBeforeAfterSmartMarketingOverview–

TariffBeforeAfterSmartMarketingOverview–

ChannelSmartChannels13BusinessHalls700DifferentDistributorsSubDistributorsin7citiesPhase1(Initialphase)Focusonthesubscribers’increase,establishownchannels.Phase2(Quickdevelopmentphase)Attractmoresubscribers,developandcooperatewithconventionalchannel.Phase3(Maturephase)Strategicalliancewithchannelpartners.Howtobuildanefficientchannel?CurrentFacts:Lowefficiencyaftersalesservicesupportfromcurrentdistributorswhichimpactgrowthofsubscriberdevelopmentdramatically.SmartMarketingOverview–

Product13金光市場發展策略4全球運營商發展趨勢&市場發展策略案例分析目錄印尼電信市場概況2印尼市場未來預測多運營商市場份額統計45%30%15%未來市場格局－5：3：2運營商排名金光用戶開展預測3-stepstrategicroadmapforSmart:ImprovemarketingperformancestepbystepConsideringthemarketgrowingtrendandthechangeofcustomerneed,3-stepstrategyisfeasibleforSmarttoachievevision.The3-stepstrategyhasbeenprovedtobepracticalbythereferencepfworldwidesuccessfuloperator’sroadmap.案例分析----中國聯通CDMA用戶開展趨勢補貼零租機案例分析---印尼CDMA運營商Bakrie用戶增長情況及市場份額變化199RP案例分析--金光開展用