1、7 August 2019Reports of sales from the Gaikindo Auto Show (GIIAS) are trickling in. For most manufacturers, sales were upuColin Davis*, CFAHead of ASEAN Equity ResearchTheand Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Singapore Branch colin.davis.sgEVs were thk of the town. We also asked participantsuabou

2、t the outlook for 2H19. Many were optimistsReiterate Buy on both Astra International and Astra Otoparts with unchanged TPs of IDR9,200 and IDR1,970, respectivelyRahul Bhatia*, CFA AssociateuTheand Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Singapore Branchrahul1.bha ia.sgLeenan* Associate BangaloreMore op

3、timists than we had expected With the backdrop of disappointing 4W sales in 1H19, we went to the auto show seeking to gauge the mood of managers and salespeople. We were also on the lookout for signs of increased discounting. Surprisingly, what we found were no shortage of optimists, and few signs o

4、f a material intensification of discounting. Most of the people with whom we spoke attributed this to the timing of the countrys election, Lebaran, and the payment of school fees. They tended to think sales would improve into the second half. Part of that optimism may have been informed by sales dat

5、a from GIIAS, with most makes seeing a rise in unit sales year over year (the data for this has come out in press releases only over the last several days).A few ms to keep an eye on As usual, the Gaikindo Auto Show was replete with* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and i

6、s not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsnew ms some fanciful and some utilitarian. What the show lacked, by and large, werecompelling new mass market vehicles that would spur sales. Of most interest to us were the Wuling Almaz and the Renault Triber. The Almaz, of course, is not new

7、. We have always liked the Almaz, but as a 5-seater in a 7-seater market, the addressable market was limited. That changed at Gaikindo. The Almaz not only has a new 7-seater variant, it also has anew, lower priced base m vehicle (MPV) produced. The Renault Triber is a low-priced, sporty multi-purpos

8、e, the pricing of which has been much speculated on but notformally released (salespeople were happy to give us an indicative price of IDR130-140m at the show, similar to what certain news articles have been reporting IDR130-150m (Liputan6, 25 July 2019). After some digging, we discovered that this

9、figure was an off-the- road price, and with likely import quotas, Tribers impact on Indonesias auto market will probably be limited. Renault has succeeded, however, in gaining share of mind.EVs thk of the town EVs were everywhere at the auto show. Many of these weremore concept than reality, with on

10、ly a few available for sale. Nevertheless, with Sri Mulyani, Indonesias Finance Minister, stating that President Jokowi would imminently release a policy on EVs and change a policy related to the governments luxury tax, excitement was high (see The Jakarta Post, 25 July 2019). As of the publication

11、date of this report, no government policy has yet been released. However, we saw at the show at least one electrical vehicle concept that we found compelling: the ECGO bikes from start- up Green City Traffic. These are extremely low-priced vehicles, the batteries for which are leased. The more popul

12、ar ECGO 2 retails for just IDR6.9m, far less than even the entry- level Honda BeAT.We maintain Buy ratings on Astra International (ASII IJ, IDR6,925, Buy) and Astra Otoparts (AUTO IJ, IDR1,390, Buy) with unchanged target prices of IDR9,200 and IDR1,970, respectively.Issuer of report: Theand Shanghai

13、Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.MCI (P) 065/01/2019 MCI (P) 008/02/2019Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore BranchView HSBC Global Research at:Indone

14、sian AutosGaikindo Auto Show takeaways and sales resultsEquitiesIndustrial ConglomeratesIndonesia獲取報告1、2、3、每周群內7+報告；當日華爾街日報、學人4、行研報告均為公開利歸原作者所有，起點財經(jīng)僅分發(fā)做內部學習。掃一掃關注 回復：加入“起點財經(jīng)”群Equities Industrial Conglomerates7 August 2019Takeaways from GIIASSales at GIIAS for most manufacturers were up EVs were a ke

15、y theme for most manufacturersWe thought the most significant introduction at the show was the new 7-seater Almaz, as well as a new lower-priced base versionuuuAn overview of GIIAS 2019We spent one very long and exhausting day at the Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto ShowGIIAS 2019 was held in J

16、akarta from 18-28 July 2019(GIIAS) 2019 held in Jakarta. It was an opportufor us to observe customer interest, comparepricing of vehicles and financing, speak to a large number of salespeople, and seek out industry experts. The Gaikindo Auto Show typically takes place in the month of August. However

17、, given negative sales to date in 2019 the industry association decided to have the event in the monthof July in hopes of rekindling customer interest and boosting sales for the remainder of the year.Many of our conversations with industry experts and salespeople touched on industry sales in the fir

18、st half of 2019 and expectations for the second half of 2019. While everyone acknowledged that sales have been poor so far in 2019, they were quick to attribute it to elections, the Lebaran holidays and payment of school fees. The elections were a one-off event in 2019, but of course the Lebaran hol

19、idays and payment of school fees are annual events and we hesitate to ascribe much blame to the latter two factors. There was a sense of cautiousoptimism about sales in the coming months given the absence of offending factors.There was a sense of cautious optimism with regard to auto sales for 2H19T

20、he other key topic of discussion was related to the government push for electric vehicles (EV).The show was replete with partial and fully electric vehicles, many of which were not for sale. Some manufacturers made inventory available for purchase, but the prices were well out of theEVs were a topic

21、 of discussion in our meetingsrange of the typical Indonesian consumer., they were out of the range of the authors ofthis report. Significant sales of EVs in Indonesia are some ways off, but after Sri Mulyani, Indonesias Finance Minister, revealed that President Jokowi would endorse two policies in

22、the coming days, the first related to EVs and the second to a revision of the countrys luxury goods tax, expectations for progress were palpable (see The Jakarta Post, 25 July 2019). At the time ofpublication of this report, the government had yet to issue any additional guidance on the topic.We als

23、o had our eye on new ms and discounting. We believe most of the new ms atNew ms launched atthe show likely will have a limited impact on the market. However, forgotten among the flashier arrivals was potentially a significant change to the Wuling Almaz, which now has a 7-seater variant. Wuling also

24、released a “Smart Enjoy” version of the Almaz with a lower entry-level price We asked a number of questions about the new Renault Triber, which had been speculated to come to the market at very competitive pricing levels. On discounting, most of the numbers quoted to us suggested the competitive env

25、ironment remained stable, despite the weak sales in 1H19. The one surprise was higher-than-expected discounting on the Avanza, the facelift of which had been introduced earlier this year. The feedback from our dealership visits in April wasthat discounting had fallen significantly this may be less t

26、he case today.GIIAS 2019 are unlikely to have a significant impact on the market2Equities Industrial Conglomerates7 August 2019Sales at the show, as a whole, were good, with increases at Toyota, Mitsubishi, DFSK and Wuling. Daihatsus sales were down very slightly while Suzuki saw a large decline. At

27、 the time of this reports publication, Hondas 4W sales results had yet to be released. In the context ofanaemic 4W sales in 1H19, these numbers give cautious cause for hope.Overall, sales at GIIAS 2019 were up compared with last yearNoteworthy productA number of new vehicles were introduced at Gaiki

28、ndo. Few of these are intended for the massmarket. The exceptions were the following:Wuling Almaz 7-seaterThe Wuling Almaz is the flagship SUV for Wuling. We have always been impressed by itsstyling and features. For example, it has by far the largest LCD screen on the dashboard.Wuling released 7-se

29、ater and Smart Enjoy versions of the AlmazHowever, with aum of five seats, and a huge boot, the vehicle didnt catch on in the wayit might. The Almaz sold 3,319 units through June, which is respectable but doesnt place it in the category of bestseller. With the Gaikindo Auto Show, Wuling has added tw

30、o seats in that big boot. Wuling also released a “Smart Enjoy” version of the Almaz with a lower entry level price ofIDR264m, compared to the previous entry-level price of IDR329m.These changes are significant and will meaningfully increase the ms addressable market.Wuling sales at GIIAS 2019 totall

31、ed 1,600 vehicles, of which more than 50% were the Almaz. While the company did not provide a split of Almaz sales between 5- and 7-seaters, the company did mention in its press release that its most popular seller was the Almaz Exclusive 7-Seater.3Equities Industrial Conglomerates7 August 2019Wulin

32、g Almaz variantsSmart Enjoy (MT)Smart Enjoy (CVT)ExclusiveOTR Jakarta price (in IDRm)263.8275.85-seater: 328.87-seater: 338.8Window (Driver side)AC, Application, Phone, Music, Time & date, Audio volume, RadioSunroofYes YesYes YesYes Yes-YesEngine1451cc, DOHC, DVVT,with Turbocharger 140HP 5,200 r

33、pm/250 NM (1800-3600rpm)6-speed MT1451cc, DOHC, DVVT,with Turbocharger 140HP 5,200 rpm/250 NM (1800-3600rpm)CVT with 8-speed manual simulation1451cc, DOHC, DVVT,with Turbocharger 140HP 5,200 rpm/250 NM (1800-3600rpm)CVT with 8-speed manual simulationMax. Power/ Max. TorqueTransmissionLength Width He

34、ight Wheelbase Front Tread Rear TreadFuel tank capacity Passenger capacity Tire sizeWheel4655mm 1835mm 1760mm 2750mm 1554mm 1549mm52L7215/60 R17Alloy4655mm 1835mm 1760mm 2750mm 1554mm 1549mm52L7215/60 R17Alloy4655mm 1835mm 1760mm 2750mm 1554mm 1549mm52L5 or 7 215/60 R17Alloy with machiningAirbagsSea

35、tbelt reminder (Driver & front passenger) ISOFIX, child-proof rear door lock Emergency stop signalTire passenger monitoring system Front & rear disc brakesABS & EBD, Brake Assist, Hill Hold Control Electronic Stability Control, Traction Control System Immobilizer, Alarm, Auto Door LuckFr

36、ont Yes Yes Yes-Yes Yes Yes YesFront Yes Yes Yes-Yes Yes Yes YesFront & sideYes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesPower WindowTilt steering, Steering switchElectronic parking brake (EPB) wit Auto vehicle holding (EVH)Auto AC Panoramic sunroofKeyless entry & engine start/stop button Electronic seat

37、adjuster (Driver)Cruise control Parking sensors Electronic mirrorLeather - wrapped steering wheel Seat materialYes Yes YesYes Yes YesYes Yes Yes-Yes Adjustable-Fabric-Front Adjustable-FabricYes Yes Yes Yes YesFront & rear Adjustable & foldingYesSeatherSpeakers Parking cameraWuling link, AM/F

38、M radio, USB, AUX-in, BluetoothSource: Company website6 speakersRear Yes6 speakersRear Yes9 speakers by Infi360Yes4Multimedia & entertainmentComfortSafety & securityDimensionLatest technology powertrainSmart voice commandPriceEquities Industrial Conglomerates7 August 2019Wuling Almaz 5-seate

39、r top viewSource: Company websiteWuling Almaz 7-seater top viewSource: Company websiteWuling Almaz displaySource: Company website5Equities Industrial Conglomerates7 August 2019Renault TriberThe Renault Triber has yet to be released to market, and its pricing has not been disclosed. TheRenault Triber

40、 appears to be good value for moneyTriber is a low end 7-seater MPV, producedand imported as a CBU (Completely BuiltUp) to Indonesia. Imports are normally priced well in excess of domestically produced vehicles,either because of tariffs or because of strict limits on import volumes., while India has

41、 anFTA with ASEAN, it has recently complained about Indonesias import quotas and emission standards (Business Standard, 10 July 2019). News articles (Liputan6, 25 July 2019) have been reporting that the pricing of the Triber would be IDR130-150m, and these were the same numbers we heard at the Renau

42、lt booth. However, after some discussion with management, we found that this was the off-the-road price and that on-the-road prices would likely be several tens of million above this. Nevertheless, a 7-seater MPV priced at IDR160-180m could in theory be a compelling value proposition despite the veh

43、icles specifications. The Triber has a 1000cc engine at 72ps (about 71hp). This compares to the Avanza, which starts at IDR189m and comes with two varieties of power train, a 1.3-litre engine that produces 97ps and a 1.5-litre engine at 104ps. The Avanza is slightly longer at 4,190mm compared to the

44、 Triber at 3,990mm but the Triber is slightly wider at 1,739mm vs 1,660mm. The Triber, to our eyes, looks more stylish. The Avanza has the brand cache of Toyota. The Triber could well be subject to importquotas.Despite not stating an official price for the Triber at the GIIAS 2019, Renault received

45、animpressive 1,000 bookings for the vehicle.Renault Triber exteriorSource: HSBC. Picture taken at GIIAS 2019 Renault boothRenault Triber interiorSource: HSBC. Picture taken at GIIAS 2019 Renault booth6Equities Industrial Conglomerates7 August 2019Other introductionsAn interesting variant on a mass-m

46、arket vehicle was the Glory i-AUTO. The vehicle is anGlory i-Auto is an offshoot of the Glory 580offshoot of the Glory 580, the base mof which retails for IDR246m and the top end mof which retails for IDR308m. The Glory 580 has not been a particularly big seller, with wholesale volume of just 580 ve

47、hicles in 1H19. The i-AUTO adds a very large sun roof, voice assistance (in English) that controls interior electronics such as power windows and the radio,rain sensors in the windshield, and some additional functionality such as sensors in the sidewindow that detect whether a hand is at risk from a

48、 closing window. The salessuggestedthe i-AUTO would retail for around IDR330mn, although the pricing was yet to be determined., Wuling was canvassing event-goers about their perception of the i-Autos value, with the intention of using the feedback to determine a price. Newspaper articles have sugges

49、ted the price could instead settle around IDR335mn (Viva.co.id, 28 July 2019). IDR330mn is in our mind a minor increase relative to the top end 580. Having said this, the voice assistant didnt workparticularly well for either of the two authors of this report. It worked perfectly with the voice ofth

50、e female salesdemonstrating the vehicles features.Glory i-AUTO exteriorSource: HSBC. Picture taken at GIIAS 2019 DFSK boothGlory i-AUTO interiorSource: HSBC. Picture taken at GIIAS 2019 DFSK booth7Equities Industrial Conglomerates7 August 2019Honda had only one vehicle on its stage at the show: the

51、all new Honda Accord. We thought the vehicle attractive; however, sedans historically have been poor sellers in Indonesia and we thinkthe market for the vehicle will be limited. For reference, Honda sold only 210 accords last year.Honda launched an all new Accord at the GIIAS 2019Honda AccordSource:

52、 HSBC. Picture taken at GIIAS 2019 Honda boothToyota introduced the Supra and FT 86. The former, in particular, garnered no little attention,but at a price of IDR2.2bn, the vehicle is well out of the price range of all but the wealthiestIndonesian. The FT 86 is little better, with the base mretailin

53、g at IDR736mn.Toyota FT 86Toyota SupraSource: Company websiteSource: Company websiteMitsubishi introduced the Eclipse Cross and New Triton at the auto show. The former is a sporty SUV with a particularly interesting rear end (LED lights are embedded across the length of the windshield) and a compell

54、ing interior. At a base price of IDR478mn and lacking 7 seats,demand is likely to be limited. The New Triton is a convincing effort at a pickup truck, debutingat IDR392mn for a base m. Again, we think the impact is likely to be limited.Mitsubishi New TritonMitsubishi Eclipse CrossSource: HSBC. Pictu

55、re taken at GIIAS 2019 Mitsubishi boothSource: HSBC. Picture taken at GIIAS 2019 Mitsubishi booth8Equities Industrial Conglomerates7 August 2019Suzukis biggest attention grabber was the Japanese made Jimny, an urban vehicle designed toappeal to a niche audience. At IDR326mn for the base mand with th

56、e likelihood of importrestrictions, we are confident the vehicle will sell in limited volume.Suzuki JimnySource: HSBC. Picture taken at GIIAS 2019 Suzuki boothHonda launched the ADV 150 scooter, an angular and sporty maxi-scooter with a 149cc engine. The vehicle sells for approximately IDR34mn, whic

57、h places it in the mass market, althoughabove more affordable options such as the Beat and Vario.Honda ADV 150Source: Company website9Equities Industrial Conglomerates7 August 2019The second half outlookAuto sales for 1H19 have been disappointing. 4W wholesale grew 6.9% in 2018, only to shrink by 13.0% in 1H19. The disappointment doesnt stem from inflated expectations; neither industry pundits nor the market were parti