COVID-19

MACROECONOMIC

POLICYRESPONSES

INAFRICA

25

EnhancingMacroeconomic

Resilience:AComparative

AnalysisofNigeriaandGhana

ChukwukaOnyekwena&OluwatosinDeborahEdafe

IDRC·CRDI

Canada

AboutCoMPRA

TheCOVID-19MacroeconomicPolicyResponseinAfrica(CoMPRA)projectwas

developedfollowingacallforrapidresponsepolicyresearchintotheCOVID-19

pandemicbythe|DRC.Theproject'soverallgoalistoinformmocroeconomicpolicydevelopmentinresponsetotheCOVID-19pandemicbylowandmiddle-income

countries(LMICs)anddevelopmentpartnersthatresultsinmoreinclusive,climate-resilient,effectiveandgender-responsivemeasuresthroughevidence-basedresearch.

ThiswilhelptomitigateCOVID-19ssocialandeconomicimpact,promoterecovery

fromthepandemicintheshorttermandpositionLMICsinthelongertermfora

moreclimate-resilient,sustainableandstablefuture.TheCoMPRAprojectwillfocus

broadlyonAfricancountriesandspecificallyonsixcountries(Benin,Senegal,Tanzania,Uganda,NigeriaandSouthAfrica).SAllAandCSEA,astheleadimplementing

partnersforthisproject,alsoworkwiththinktankpartnersinthesecountries.

OuTDonof

ThisprojectissupportedbytheInternationalDevelopmentResearchCentre(IDRC).TheIDRCisaCanadianfederalCrowncorporation.ItispartofCanada'sforeign

cffairsanddevelopmenteffortsandinvestsinknowledge,innovation,andsolutionstoimprovethelivesofpeopleinthedevelopingworld.

Abstract

Macroeconomicresilienceiscrucialforsustainabledevelopment.NigeriaandGhana,two

prominentWestAfricancountries,havefaceduniquechallengesandopportunitiesinbuildingsuchresilience.Thesetwocountrieshaveexperiencedarangeofeconomicshocksoverthepasttwodecades,includingnaturaldisasters,commoditypricefluctuations,financialcrisesand

globaleconomicdownturns.

Thispaperdiscussestheresultsofacomparativeanalysis

ofthemacroeconomicresilienceofNigeriaandGhana.It

alsoexploresseveralpolicyoptionsforenhancingresilience.Amongthefindingsarethatwhilethetwocountrieshave

somecommonalities,suchasasharedconcernaboutdebtsustainability,theirrespectiveeconomiclandscapesare

influencedbyauniquesetoffactors,necessitatingtailoredapproaches.Therevealedchallengesandopportunitiescanserveasvaluableinsightsforshapingfuturestrategiesaimedatenhancingmacroeconomicresilience,ultimatelyensuringsustainedgrowthandstability.Inadditiontotailored

recommendationsforeachcountry,thepaperrecommendsthatNigeriaandGhanaprioritisecollaborativestrategies

inareasofmutualinterest,suchastrade,energyand

infrastructuredevelopment.Bysharingbestpracticesandworkingtogether,theseneighbourscancollectivelyenhancetheirresiliencetofutureeconomicchallengesandpromotesustainabledevelopmentinWestAfrica.

Introduction

Macroeconomicresilience,definedasacountry'sabilityto

withstandandrecoverfromeconomicshocks,iscrucialfor

sustainabledevelopment.!NigeriaandGhana,twoprominentWestAfricancountries,havefaceduniquechallengesand

opportunitiesinbuildingtheirresilience.Naturaldisasters,commoditypricefluctuations,financialcrisesandglobaleconomicdownturnsareamongthenumerousfactorsthathavesignificantlyimpactedtheeconomicstabilityand

growthtrajectoriesofNigeriaandGhanaovertheperiod2000-2020.2Bothcountriesarevitaleconomicplayersin

“Naturaldisasters

commodityprice

fluctuations,financial

crisesandglobaleconomicdownturnsareamongthenumerousfactorsthat

havesignificantlyimpactedtheeconomicstability

andgrowthtrajectoriesofNigeriaandGhanaoverthe

period2000-2020"

AidaCalderaSanchezetal.,'Strengtheningeconomicresilience:Insightsfromthepost-

1970recordofsevererecessionsandfinancialcrises'(OECDEconomicPolicyPaperno.20,

OECDEconomicPublishing,December2016).

2AndiDuqi,'BankingInstitutionsandNaturalDisasters:Recovery,ReslienceandGrowthin

theFaceofClimateChange'(BankingInstitutionsandNaturalDisaster,July22,2023),7-2,

/10.1007/978-3-031-36371-92

.

3EnhancingMacroeconomicResllence:AComparativeAnalysisofNigeriaandChana

WestAfrica,3sharingsignificanttradedependenciesand

helpingtoforgeregionalintegration.4Nigeria'seconomic

policiesandresponsesduringcrisesinfluenceandguide

othermembersoftheEconomicCommunityofWestAfrican

States(ECOWAS),fosteringregionalstabilityandeconomic

integration.5Despitetheseinterconnections,theyalsoshare

commonchallenges,includingstructuralvulnerabilities,an

over-relianceoncommodities,weakinstitutionalframeworks

andexposuretoclimateshocks,promptingthemtodiversify

theireconomiesandimplementfiscalandmonetaryreforms.

Understandingthesecountries'approachestoresilience

canprovidevaluableinsightsforpolicymakersandother

stakeholders.

WhileNigeriaandGhanahavesignificanteconomic

interlinkagesandhavethereforedisplayedsomesimilarities,

“WhileNigeriaandGhana

therearealsoevidentdivergencesintheirresponsesto

havesignificanteconomic

economicshocks.Thesearepromptedbythediverse

economicstructuresandpolicyapproachesemployedbythetwocountries.Nigeriareliesheavilyonoil,whereasGhana

interlinkagesandhave

thereforedisplayedsome

hasamorediversifiedeconomyandalsobenefitsfrom

similarities,therearealso

relativelybettergovernance.6Itisagainstthisbackground

evidentdivergencesintheir

thatacomparativeanalysisofthemacroeconomicresilience

responsestoeconomic

ofthetwocountrieswasconductedandthepolicyoptions

shocks'

availabletoenhancesuchresiliencewereexplored.

Theapproachemployedinthiscomparativeanalysisinvolved

mappingandexaminingtheeconomiccrisesandtheireffects

onNigeriaandGhanaovera20-yearperiod.Theanalysis

3ECOWAS,'ECOWASofthePeople:PeaceandProsperityforAll,2024,https://www.ecowas.

int/member-states/.

4AyodeleHarunaMustapha,"InterogatingtheContendinglssuesinNigeria-Ghana

Relations:ReciprocityofConsequencesorConstructiveEngagement,International

Relations9,no.01(2021):36-49,

/publication/352999607

InterrogatingtheContendingIssuesinNigeria-GhanaRelationsReciprocityof

ConsequencesorConstructiveEngagement.

5FreedomChukwudiOnuohaandJosephChukwunonsoAkogwu,'NigeriaandtheECOWAS,

inAfrica'sInternationalRelationsinaGlobalisingWorld:PerspectivesonNigerianForeignPolicy

atSixtyandBeyond,ed.UsmanTarandSharkdamWapmuk(London:LexingtonBooks,

2022),143.

6WorldBank,'GhanaRising:AccelerotingEconomicTransformationandCreating

Jobs'(Washington,DC:TheWorldBank,2021),

/

entities/publication/cf765647-105e-56c3-b91e-f42b025ab307.

4

EnhancingMacroeconomicResilience:AComparativeAnalysisofNigeriaandGhana

consideredacomprehensivesetofindicators,suchasgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)growth,

governmentrevenue,debt,GDPpercapita,andvariousfinancial,monetary,fiscalandtrade

indicators.ThepaperdrawscomparisonsbetweenNigeriaandGhanatoidentifysimilaritiesanddifferencesintheirresponsestocrisesandtheresultingeconomicoutcomes.Thiscomparativeapproachallowsvaluablelessonstobedrawnfrombothcountries'experiences.

StructureoftheNigerianandGhanaian

economies

NigeriahasthelargesteconomyinAfrica,withaGDPof$550.93billion(seeFigure1)anda

populationof218.5million.?Withaper-capitaincomeofS2445asof2022(seeFigure2),itis

currentlyclassifiedasalower-middle-incomecountry.8Endowedwithabundantnaturalresources,theNigerianeconomyremainsdependentontheoilsectorforthebulkofitsfiscalrevenue

($25bilionin2022)°andforeignexchangeearnings($2.29billionin2022),1makingitsusceptibletooilpricefluctuationsandexternalshocks.Agriculturewasthemainstayoftheeconomybeforethediscoveryofcrudeoil,buttodaytheoilsectoraccountsfor80%ofgovernmentrevenue,

90%oftotalexportsand95%offoreignexchangeearnings.Nonetheless,theservicessectoristhebiggestcontributortoNigeria'sGDP,accountingfor57%ofGDPinthefirstquarterof2023comparedtotheagriculturalsector's22%andtheindustrysector's21%(seeFigure3).

Ghana,inturn,acountrywithapopulationof33.5millionpeople,hadaGDPof$70billionanda

per-capitaincomeof$2042asof2022(seeFigures1and2)andtotalfiscalrevenueof58.83billionin2022.?Ghana'seconomyislargelydependentontheexportofcommodities,suchasgold,cocoa,oilandgas,whichaccountfor80%ofexportrevenue,makingitvulnerabletoglobaleconomic

slowdownsandfallingcommodityprices.3TheservicessectoristhelargestcontributortoGDPinGhana.Forinstance,inthefirstquarterof2023,itaccountedfor47%ofGDPasaresultofgrowthineducation,health,andinformationandcommunicationtechnology(ICT),whiletheindustry

7InternationalMonetaryFund,'Nigeria,'

/en/Countries/NGA

.

8WorldBank,'WorldBankCountryandLendingGroups,'

/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country

-and-lending-groups.

9FocusEconomics,'NigeriaFiscalOctober2021,'

/countries/nigeria/news/fiscal/governments-proposed-2022

-budget-is-largest-ever/.

10CentralBankofNigeria,CentralBankofNigeriaEconomicReport,Nigeria'sForeignExchangeEarningsfor2022,

.ng/Out/2022/RSD/

May%202022%20Economic%20Report.pdf.

11MichaelChugozieAnyaehieandAnthonyChukwudiAreji,EconomicDiversificationforSustainableDevelopmentinNigeria,'OpenJournalofPoliticalScience5,no.2(2015):87,

/journal/paperabs?paperid=54433

.

12GhanaRevenueAuthority,2022AnnualReport,

.gh/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/GRA-2022-Annual-Report.pdf

.

13EbenezerBoateng,EmmanuelAsafo-Adjei,AlexAddison,SerebourQuaicoe,MawusiAyisatYusufandAnokyeAdam,'Interconnectednessamongcommodities,therealsectorofGhanaandexternalshocks,'ResourcesPolicy75(2022):102511,

/science/article/abs/

pii/S0301420721005183.

5

EnhancingMacroeconomicResilience:AComparativeAnalysisofNigeriaandGhana

Nigeria($billions)

(suo!!!q$)Dupy9

$billions

○

andagriculturalsectorsaccountedfor32%and21%ofGDP,respectively(seeFigure3).4Given

itsstrongagriculturalandservicessectors,Ghanadisplaysarelativelyhigherlevelofeconomic

diversification.Itisconsideredalower-middle-incomecountryandissmallerinsizethanNigeria.

Figure1RespectivesizesoftheNigerianandGhanaianeconomies(GDP),2000-2023

Nigerio

Ghana

source:WorldBank,WorldDevelopmentIndicotors,2023,httpsl/datobankwordbonkorg/source/wold-development-indicotors

Figure2GDPpercapitainNigeriaandGhana,2000-2023

NigeriaGhana

Source:WordBank,WordDevelopmentIndicators,2023,https//dotobonkworldbank,org/source/wodd-development-indicators

14Ghanastotisticolservices,"Newsletter-QuorteryGrossDomesticproductFirstQuorter;https://wwwstotsghana,gov,gh/gssmain/fileuploadl

National%20Accounts/Newsletter_quarterly_GDP-2023_Q1June_2023_Edition_FinaLfinal.pdf.

EnhandingMacroeconomicResilience:AComparativeAnalysisofNigeriaandchana

GDP

Sectoral

Q1

3

Figure

contribution

in

Nigeria

to

andGhana,2023

Agriculture22%

NIGERIA

2023Q1

Industry21%

Services57%

Source:NationalBureauofStatistics,2023,

.ng/

;GhanaStatisticalServices,Newsletter-QuarterlyGrossDomesticProductFirstQuarter,'

.gh/gssmain/fileUpload/National%20Accounts/NewsletterquarterlyGDP2023Q1June2023EditionFinal

final.pdf

ThenatureofmacroeconomiccrisesinNigeriaandGhana

Inthispaper,acrisisisdefinedasaperiodofadeclining/slowrealGDPgrowthrateoranegativeGDPgrowthrate,ie,aperiodofrecession.Dependingonthesourceofthecrisis,itiscategorisedasaglobal/regionaloranationalcrisis.

Global/regionalcrises(exogenousshocks)

Duringtheperiod2000-2022,theworldexperiencedvarioustypesofglobal/regionalcrisis,

includingaglobalfinancialcrisis(2007-2008),anoilpriceshock(2014-2016),Ebola(2014-2016),theCOVID-19pandemic(2020-2021)andtheRussia-Ukrainewar(2022-present)(seeTable1).

Nationalcrises(endogenousshocks)

Ontopofthesecrises,Nigeriaalsoexperiencedvariouscrisesatthedomesticlevel,includingtheBokoHaraminsurgencyfrom2009onwards,whichhasledtolossesoflives,displacementofmillionsofpeopleandrelatedinsecurity;afarmers-herdersconflictwhichhasthreatenedfoodsecurityandresultedinlossesoflivesandproperties;naturaldisasterslikefloods;and

socialunrest(#EndSARSprotest)in2020whichresultedinadeclineingovernmentrevenue

7EnhancingMacroeconomicResllence:AComparativeAnalysisofNigeriaandChana

andconsumerconfidenceinfinancialmarkets,againstthebackdropofaworseningeconomy.!5Ghanaalsoexperienceddomesticcrises,suchasafinancialcrisisbetween2012and2015;an

electricitycrisisin2014;andanaturaldisaster(floods)in2015(seeTable2).

Thenationalcrisesnotedaboveimpactedbotheconomiesbyimpedingproductivityacross

sectorsandinterferingwitheconomicactivitybydisruptingsupplychains,destroying

infrastructureandinterruptingthelaboursupply,leadingtoadecreaseinoutputacrossmanysectors.Nationalcriseshavesignificantimpactsatthenational(andsometimesregional)level,buttheyarenotalwaysgivenasmuchattentionasglobalcrisesduetothelatter'sfar-reachingandcascadingimplicationsacrossmultiplecountries.

Table1GlobalandregionalcrisesaffectingtheNigerianandGhanaianeconomies,2000-2022

Year

Crisis

Proximatecauses

2007-2008

Globalfinancialcrisis

CollapseofhousefinancemarketintheUS,lowinterestrates,easycredit,inadequateregulations

2014-2016CommoditypriceshockDropinoilpricesfromsupplyglutintheglobalmarket

2014-2016

Ebola(regional)

Zoonotictransmission,human-to-humantransmissions,travel,migration

2020-2021COVID-19Declarationofpandemic,tradeandtravelrestrictions

2022-present

Russia-Ukrainewa

Supplychaindisruptions

Source:Authors'compilation

Table2NationalcrisesaffectingtheNigerianandGhanaianeconomies,

2000-2022

Year

Nigeria

Year

Ghana

1999-present

Farmers-herdersconflict

2014

Electricitycrisis

2009-present

BokoHaraminsurgency

2012-2015

Financialcrisis

2012,2022

Agriculturalshocks-floods,drought

2015

Floods

2020Socialunrest(#EndSARSprotest)

Source:Authors'compilation

15The#EndSARSprotestinNigeriain2020wasasocialmovementthatemergedtoadvocatethedisbandmentoftheSpecialAnti-RobberySquad(SARS),acontroversialunitoftheNigerianPoliceForce.SARShadfacednumerousallegationsofhumanrightsabuses,extortionandextrajudicialkillings.Theprotests,primarilyledbyNigerianyouth,gainedsignificanttractionbothnationallyandinternationally.Theprotestsstartedpeacefullybutlatertumedviolent,disruptingeconomicactivities,reducinggovernmentrevenueandaffectingconsumerconfidenceinfinancialmarkets.

ThesefactorsnegativelyimpactedNigeria'seconomicperformanceduringandaftertheprotests.

8

EnhancingMacroeconomicResilience:AComparativeAnalysisofNigeriaandGhana

ldentificationofcrisesinNigeriaandGhana

InNigeria,economicfluctuationsfrom2000to2022wereprimarilydrivenbythecountry's

heavyrelianceonoilexportsandexternalfactors.Thesurgeinglobaloilpricesin2002,drivenbyincreaseddemandandgeopoliticaltensions,providedawindfallforNigeria.However,thiswasfollowedbysignificanteconomicdownturnsin2016and2020(seeFigures4and5).The2014

commoditypriceshock,resultingfromadropinoilpricesfromthesupplyglutintheglobaloilmarket,ledtoarecessionin2016.AkeydriverofthisglutwastheshaleoilboomintheUSandtheOrganisationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment's(OPEC)productiondecisions,whichimpactedNigeria'seconomy.16

China'sshifttoamoreconsumption-driveneconomyalsoaffectedthedemandforcommodities,

includingoil,furtherharmingNigeria'seconomicstability."ThisshockwasfollowedbytheglobalupheavalsunleashedbytheCOVID-19pandemicleandsubsequentlytheRussia-Ukrainewar.!9

TheinvasionofUkrainedisruptedenergymarkets,initiallybenefitingNigeria.However,structuralchallenges(suchasdecliningoilproduction,alackofinvestment,infrastructureshortcomingsandvandalismofoilfacilities)andrelianceonimportshamperedthecountry'sabilityto

maximisegains,highlightingtheneedforeconomicdiversificationandreforms.20However,

Nigeriadisplayedresiliencebyexperiencingarobusteconomicreboundin2021(seeFigures4

and5).Thisrecoverywasattributedtoproactivepolicysupport,risingoilprices,international

financialassistance,effectiveCOVID-19-containmentmeasures,governmentreforms,theglobaleconomicrecovery,andprudentmonetaryandfiscalpolicies.

Ghanaexperiencedeconomicvolatilityduringthesameperiodduetoacombinationofinternalandexternalfactors.Thecountryexperiencedstronggrowthuntil2011,drivenbystabilityand

reforms(seeFigures6and7).Deceleration,however,occurredintheperiod2012-2014inthefaceoffiscalchallengesandexternalshocks,includingcommoditypricefluctuations.Forinstance,in2014,realGDPgrowthslowedto4%from7.3%in2013duetosupply-sideconstraints,including

16MareStocker,JohnBaffesandDanaVorisek,Whattriggeredtheoilpriceplungeof2014-2016andwhyitfailedtodeliveraneconomicimpetusineightcharts'(WorldBankBlogs,January18,2018),

/developmenttalk/what-triggered-oil-price-plunge-2014-2016-and

-

why-it-fniled-deliver-economic-impetuseishtchorts

17WorldBank,GlobalEconomicProspects:SpilloversamidWeakGrowth(WashingtonD.C.:WorldBankGroup,January2016),https://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/GEP/GEP2016a/Global-Economic-Prospects-January-2016-Spillovers-amid-weak-growth.pdf.

18WorldBank,'NigeriaEconomicUpdate:ResiliencethroughReforms,'June2021,

/en/country/nigeria/publication/

nigeria-economic-update-resilience-through-reforms#:~:text=By%2Othe%20end%20of%202021,more%20slowly%20than%20the%20population.

19WorldBank,'RussianInvasionofUkraineImpedesPost-PandemicEconomicRecoveryinEmergingEuropeandCentralAsia,;'October4,2022,

/en/news/press-release/2022/10/04/russian-invasion-of-ukraine-impedes-post-pandemic-economic-recovery-in

-

emerging-europe-and-central-asia.

20InternationalMonetaryFund,'Nigeria:2022ArticleIVConsultation-PressRelease;StaffReport;andStatementbytheExecutiveDirectorForNigeria,'(IMFCountryReportno.23/93,February16,2023),

/en/Publications/CR/lssues/2023/02/16/Nigeria-2022-Article-IV

-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-529842.

9EnhancingMacroeconomicResilience:AComparativeAnalysisofNigeriaandGhana

energy-supplychallenges,asharpdepreciationofthedomesticcurrencyandlowercommodityprices.21

UnlikeNigeria,Ghanaexhibitedmoreresiliencetoexogenousandendogenousshocks,andthecountryhasnotexperiencedarecessionsince2000.However,Ghana'sper-capitaGDPdeclinedin2015and2020butimmediatelyrebounded(seeFigures6and7)duetoprudenteconomic

policiesandrobustgovernance.Resilienceandstronggrowthreturnedduringtheperiod

2017-2019,buttheCOVID-19pandemicpromptedacontractionin2020.Overthetwodecades,Ghana'seconomicperformancewasinfluencedbyglobalcommodityprices,fiscalmanagement,exchangeratevolatility,governanceandinvestmenttrends,thusemphasisingtheimportanceofdiversificationandprudenteconomicpolicies.

Figure4RealGDPpercapitagrowthofNigeria,2000-2021

GLOBALNATIONALNATIONALGLOBALGLOBAL

NigeriaGDPpercapitarealgrowth(Constant2015S/LCU)

Source:WorldBank,WorldDevelopmentIndicators,2023,

/source/world-development-indicators

21BankofGhana,AnnualReport2014,

.gh/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/AnnRep-2014.pdf

.

10EnhancingMacroeconomicReslience:AComparativeAnalysisofNigeriaandChana

5(dollars)

Annualgrowth(%)

Figure5GDPpercapitaandrealGDPpercapitagrowthofNigeria,

2000-2021

GDPpercapita(constant20155)

GDPpercapitarealgrowth(Constant2015S/LCU)

Source:WorldBank,WorldDevelopmentIndicators,2023,

/source/world-development-indicators

Figure6RealGDPpercapitagrowthofGhana,2000-2021

GLOBAL

GLOBAL

NATIONAL

GDPpercapitarealgrowth(Constant2015S/LCU)

Source:WorldBank,WorldDevelopmentIndicators,2023,

/source/world-development-indicators

11EnhancingMacroeconomicResilience:AComparativeAnalysisofNigeriaandGhana

5(dollars)

Annudlgrowth(%)

GDPpercapitaandrealGDPpercapitagrowthofGhana,

2000-2021

Figure7

GhanaGDPpercapita(Constant2015$)

GhanaGDPpercapitarealgrowth(Constant2015S/LCU)

Source:WorldBank,WorldDevelopmentIndicators,2023,

/source/world-development-indicators

Globalfinancialcrisis(2007-2008)

The2007-2008globalfinancialcrisishadasignificantimpactonNigeriaduetoitsheavyrelianceoncrudeoilexportsandcapitalinflows.Thecrisisledtodecreaseddemandforoilexportsand

challengesinthebankingsector,despitesomereforms.Surprisingly,Nigeria'seconomyremainedresilient,withsteadyGDPpercapitagrowthattributedtotheimpressiveperformanceofits

non-oilsectors,likeagriculture,andprudentmacroeconomicpolicies.Nigeria'sGDPpercapitagrowthin2007,2008,2009and2010was3.7%,3.9%,5.1%and5.1%,respectively(seeFigure5).

Ghana'seconomyperformedwelldespitetheglobalfinancialcrisis.RealGDPgrowthrateswerepredictedtobe1.7%for2007and6.4%for2008,continuingthepositivegrowthtrajectoryfrompreviousyears.ThecrisisdidnothaveasignificantlynegativeimpactonGhana'seconomic

growthduetothecountry'slimitedintegrationintheworldmarketandrelianceonhighand

stablecommodityprices,especiallygold.Increasedcocoaandcoffeeproductionalsocontributedtopositivepricedevelopments,supportingexportearningsandforeignexchangereserves.

Moreover,Ghana'sexportcommoditypricesremainedrelativelystable.Domestically,the2008generalelectionsinfluencedbusinesssentimentandfiscalexpenditureasthegovernment

addressedvariouschallenges.

12

EnhancingMacroeconomicResilience:AComparativeAnalysisofNigeriaandGhana

Commoditypriceshock(2014-2016)

Overthepastdecade,Nigeria'seconomyhasremainedvulnerableduetoitsheavyrelianceon

crudeoil,despiteadeclineinthelatter'sshareofGDP.Oilexportsaccountedforover90%of

totalexportsand86%offoreignexchangeinflowsovertheperiod.2The2014-2016commoditypriceshockcausedasignificantdropinoilprices,impactingtheNigerianeconomyintheformofacurrencydepreciationandinflationarypressures.

Nigeriahadexperiencedadecadeofrobusteconomicgrowth,averaging6.8%annuallyuntil

2014,largelydrivenbyhighoilprices,strongconsumerdemandandagrowingservicessector.

However,economicgrowthdeclinedsignificantlyin2015andfurthercontractedin2016duetoaplummetingoilprice,whichreachedalowof$27perbarrelinFebruary2016from$115perbarrelinJune2014,aswellasattacksonoilinfrastructure,energyshortagesandforeignexchange

difficulties.?3Thenon-oilsectorwasnotrobustenoughtocompensatefortheoil-induced

recession.Inflationsurgedto17.1%inJuly2016,whichwasmainlyattributedtostructuraland

cost-pushfactors,lowindustrialactivity,highelectricitytariffsandacurrencydepreciation.24

Fiscalbalancesshiftedfromsurplusestodeficits,withthe2016budgetreflectingincreaseddebt-servicingcostsandfuelsubsidies.Exportrevenuesdroppedsharply,andthecurrentaccount

balanceturnednegative.Grossinternationalreservesalsodeclined,posingchallengesfortheNigerianeconomy.

TheGhanaianeconomyexperiencedadverseeffectsfromtheglobalcommoditypriceshock,

alongsidepersistentdomesticchallengeslikeenergysupplyconstraints.Ghana'sprimary

exportsofgold,cocoaandcrudeoilaccountfor80%ofexportrevenues,reflectingbetter

diversificationthanNigeria.?5Nonetheless,the2014commoditypriceshockalsohadsignificanteffectsonGhana'seconomyduetoitsheavyrelianceoncommodityexports.ThefallinexportrevenuesandgovernmentincomeputpressureontheGhanaiancurrency,thecedi,leadingtoitsdepreciationagainstmajorcurrencies.Thecedidepreciatedby31.2%againsttheUSdollarin2014andbyafurther16.1%in2015.Thisledtohigherimportcosts,contributingtohigher

inflation.?6Headlineinflationsteadilyrosetoendtheyearat17.7%,upfrom17.0%in2014.In2015,thegovernmentofGhanarecordedanoverallbudgetdeficitof6.7%ofGDPagainstatargetof7.0%ofGDP.

22UNComtradeDatabase,

/

.

23MartinSommer,AllanAuclair,ArmandFouejieu,InutuLukonga,SaadQuayyum,AmirSadeghi,GaziShbaikat,AndrewTiffinandBruno

Versailles,'LearningtoLivewithCheaperOll:PolicyAdjustmentinMENAandCCAOil-ExportingCountries'(IMFDepartmentalPapers,June8,2016),

/en/Publications/Departmental-Papers-Policy-Papers/lssues/2016/12/31/Learning-to-Live-with-Cheaper-Oil-Policy

-

Adjustment-in-MENA-and-CCA-Oil-Exporting-Countries-43934.

24TemitopeOshikoya,'Financinggovernmentprogrammesineconomicdownturn:Acomparativeanalysis,'EconomicandFinancialReview53,no.4(2015):5,

.ng/efr/vol53/iss4/5/

.

25Boatengetal.,Interconnectednessamongcommodities.'

26BankofGhana,AnnualReport2015,

.gh/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/AnnRep-2015.pdf

.

13

EnhancingMacroeconomicResilience:AComparativeAnalysisofNigeriaandGhana

Ebola(2014-2016)

TheEbolavirusdiseasewasintroducedtoNigeriabyaLiberiandiplomatwhovisitedNigeriainJuly2014.?7ThisprecipitatedthetakingofimmediatemeasuresbytheFederalMinistryofHealthandNigeriaCentreforDiseaseControl(NCDC),suchasquarantineandemergencydeclarations.?8Nigeriafacedinitialchallenges,suchasalackofpreparedne