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January2024
OilMarketContext
Oilpricesremainrange-bounddespiterisinggeopoliticalriskintheMiddleEast
MoreshippersareavoidingtheRedSeafollowingaseriesofattacksontransitingshipsbyYemen-basedHouthis.TheSuezCanalandBabal-MandebStraitcarriednearly10%ofallseaborneoiltradelastyear.SeveraloilcompanieshavesuspendedshipmentsthroughtheareaandelectedtoreroutecargosaroundAfrica’sCapeofGoodHope,adding10-14daystothevoyagetime.Asaresultoftheattacks,aUS-ledcoalitionhaslaunchedaseriesofstrikesonHouthitargetsinYemen.
Additionallyintheregion,IrancarriedoutstrikesinIraq,Syria,andPakistanearlierthisweek.PakistanthencarriedoutaretaliatorystrikeintoIran.
Despitethegeopoliticalescalation,physicaloilandgasproductionhavenotyetbeenimpactedandBrentcrudepriceshaveremainedrange-boundintheupper-$70s.Economicheadwindsandnegativesentimenthavehelpedkeeppricescapped.
ExtremecoldandwinterweatherdisruptUSproductionandrefineries
OilproductioninNorthDakota,theUS’thirdlargestproducingstate,hasfallenbynearly50%(~700kb/d)thisweekbecauseofoperationalchallengesfromextremecoldtemperatures.FreezingweatherinTexashasalsoresultedinreducedoperationsatnumerousrefineries.USphysicaloilpriceshaveseensomeupwardpressure,buttheoutageisexpectedtobetemporary,andthefuturesmarketremainslargelyunaffected.
AngolaleavesOPEC
AngolaannouncedinlateDecemberitwasleavingOPECafter16yearsofmembership.Angolawasthe7thlargestOPECmember,producing~1.1mb/dofcrude.Therearenow12OPECmembers.
ThiseditionoftheComparativeAnalysisreportincludesAngolainnon-OPECproductionfiguresandhasadjustedthemonth-on-monthrevisionstoaccountforitsreclassificationfromOPECtonon-OPEC.
2
by0.3-0.7mb/dordrewby0.6mb/d.
mb/d.
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
2023hascometoanend,butoilbalancesstillshowunusuallylargedivergences
?Data,particularlyfordemand,isrevised
routinelyforyearstocome,butthislargeofa
divergenceattheendoftheyearis
uncommon.
?The2023annualbalancesfromIEA,OPEC,
andEIAimplyglobaloilinventorieseithergrew
?Thisisa1.3mb/drangefor2023andismore
than3xtherangeinestimatesfor2022(a0.4
mb/dgap).
?4Q23dataisstillconsideredaforecastandthe
currentestimatesoftheglobalsupply-demand
balancedivergeby2.6mb/d.
?However,datafor1Q23is9+monthsoldand
balanceestimatesstilldivergeby0.9mb/d.
?Allthreeforecastersarefairlyalignedonnon-
OPECproductionestimatesfortheyear,but
by1mb/dandonOPECsupplydifferby0.6
theirestimatesonglobaldemandlevelsdiffer
2023GlobalLiquidsStockChange
millionbarrelsperday
1.6
1.1
0.70.60.6
0.7
0.7
0.2
0.3
0.0
-0.4
-0.6
-0.9-0.9
-1.9
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
2023
1Q23
IEA
EIA
OPEC
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,EIASTEO
3
Summaryof2024-2025Balances
OPECandEIApublishedinaugural2025forecaststhismonth.IEAisscheduledtointroduceits2025forecastinApril.
?Demandgrowthforecastsdivergeby1.0mb/din2024and0.6mb/din2025.OPECseesthemostrobustgrowthbothyears.IEAseesOECDdemandcontractingthisyearandEIAseesitcontractingnextyear.
?OPECandEIA’s2025globaldemandlevelforecastsdivergeby2.5mb/d–roughlyequivalenttothecurrentconsumptionlevelsofSouthKoreaorCanada.
?Non-OPECsupplyisforecasttogrowby0.9-1.4mb/dinboth2024and2025.
?OPECandEIAbothseethecallonOPECrisingin2024and2025asdemandgrowthoutpacesnon-OPECsupplygrowthinbothyears.
lowestforecast
highestforecast
2024&2025BalanceSummary
2024
2025
1Q242Q243Q244Q24
20242024Y/Y
1Q252Q253Q254Q25
20252025Y/Y
IEA
101.7
102.7
103.7
103.8
103.0
1.2
GlobalDemand
OPEC
103.3
103.9
104.9
105.3
104.4
2.2
105.2
105.7
106.9
107.0
106.2
1.8
EIA
102.1
102.1
102.8
102.8
102.5
1.4
103.2
103.4
104.0
104.1
103.7
1.2
IEA
45.4
45.5
45.6
45.9
45.6
-0.1
OECDDemand
OPEC
45.6
45.9
46.3
46.2
46.0
0.3
45.7
46.0
46.5
46.3
46.1
0.1
EIA
46.1
45.6
46.2
46.3
46.1
0.1
45.9
45.5
46.2
46.3
46.0
-0.1
IEA
56.3
57.3
58.0
57.9
57.4
1.4
Non-OECDDemand
OPEC
57.7
58.0
58.5
59.1
58.3
2.0
59.4
59.7
60.5
60.8
60.1
1.7
EIA
56.1
56.6
56.5
56.5
56.4
1.3
57.3
57.9
57.8
57.8
57.7
1.3
IEA
75.0
75.9
76.3
76.5
75.9
1.4
Non-OPECSupply*andOPECNGLs
OPEC
75.4
75.5
76.0
76.6
75.9
1.4
77.1
76.9
77.2
77.7
77.2
1.4
EIA
75.3
75.5
75.9
76.1
75.7
0.9
76.0
76.4
76.8
77.2
76.6
0.9
IEA
26.7
26.8
27.3
27.3
27.0
-0.2
CallonOPEC
OPEC
27.9
28.4
28.9
28.7
28.5
0.8
28.1
28.7
29.7
29.3
29.0
0.5
EIA
26.8
26.6
26.8
26.7
26.8
0.5
27.3
27.0
27.2
26.9
27.1
0.3
*Includesbiofuelsandprocessinggains
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,EIASTEO
4
2024OutlookComparison
5
Summaryof2024BalancesandRevisions
?Allthreeforecastersrevisedup2024non-OPECsupplyonstrongerUSoutlooks.OPECalsorevisedupitsRussianoutlookby0.2mb/d.
?IEAandEIAalsoreviseduptheirglobaldemandoutlookby0.1-0.2mb/donstrongerUSandEuropeforecasts.
?Despitetheupwardrevisions,demandforecastscontinuetodivergesharply.IEAseesonly1.2mb/dofglobaldemandgrowthnextyearwhileOPECcontinuestosee2.2mb/d.
?EIAcontinuestosee0.5mb/dlessnon-OPECsupplygrowththanIEAandOPECduetoalowerUSandKazakhstanforecast.
2024BalanceSummary
UpdatedForecast
RevisionstoLastMonth'sForecast
1Q24
2Q24
3Q24
4Q24
2024
2024Y/Y
1Q24
2Q24
3Q24
4Q24
2024
2024Y/Y
IEA
101.7
102.7
103.7
103.8
103.0
1.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
-0.2
0.2
0.2
GlobalDemand
OPEC
103.3
103.9
104.9
105.3
104.4
2.2
-0.3
0.3
0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
EIA
102.1
102.1
102.8
102.8
102.5
1.4
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
IEA
45.4
45.5
45.6
45.9
45.6
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
OECDDemand
OPEC
45.6
45.9
46.3
46.2
46.0
0.3
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.0
EIA
46.1
45.6
46.2
46.3
46.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
IEA
56.3
57.3
58.0
57.9
57.4
1.4
0.2
0.2
0.1
-0.2
0.1
0.1
Non-OECDDemand
OPEC
57.7
58.0
58.5
59.1
58.3
2.0
-0.2
0.3
0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.0
EIA
56.1
56.6
56.5
56.5
56.4
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
IEA
75.0
75.9
76.3
76.5
75.9
1.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.6
0.3
0.2
Non-OPECSupply*andOPECNGLs
OPEC
75.4
75.5
76.0
76.6
75.9
1.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.0
EIA
75.3
75.5
75.9
76.1
75.7
0.9
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
OPECCrude**
EIA
26.0
26.8
26.9
26.8
26.6
-0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
IEA
26.7
26.8
27.3
27.3
27.0
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.7
-0.1
0.0
CallonOPEC
OPEC
27.9
28.4
28.9
28.7
28.5
0.8
-0.7
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.3
0.0
EIA
26.8
26.6
26.8
26.7
26.8
0.5
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
GlobalStockChangeandMisctoBalance**
EIA
-0.8
0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.0
*Includesbiofuelsandprocessinggains
**OnlyEIApublishesaforecastofOPECcrudeproductionandglobalstockchange
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,EIASTEO
6
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Evolutionof2024AnnualDemandGrowthForecasts
?OPEC’s2024globaldemandgrowthforecastis1.0mb/dhigherthanIEA’sduetoahigherOECD,MiddleEast,andRussianforecasts.
?IEAseesOECDdemanddecliningby0.1mb/dnextyear,whileOPECsees0.3mb/dgrowth.
GlobalDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
OPEC
EIA
IEA
Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24
ForecastVintage
OECDDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IEA
OPEC
EIA
Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24
ForecastVintage
Non-OECDDemandGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
OPEC
EIA
IEA
Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24
ForecastVintage
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
7
OPECcontinuestoseeconsistentlyhigherdemandlevelsthrough2024,endingtheyearabove105mb/d
2023-24GlobalDemand
demandinmillionbarrelsperday
106
105
104
103
102
101
100
99
1Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q24
IEAOPECEIA……IEAprevious…OPECprevious…EIAprevious
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
8
EIA
IEA
OPEC
OPECseesmorerobustdemandgrowththanIEAintheOECD,India,Russia,andtheMiddleEast
2024DemandGrowthForecastsbyRegion
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
Rangein2024DemandGrowth
Forecasts
Global
TotalNon-OECDTotalOECD
China
OtherNon-OECDOECDAmericasMiddleEast
Russia
OECDEurope
India
OECDAsia
Africa
0.7
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
1.0
millionbarrelsperday
9
71.0
70.5
70.0
69.5
69.0
68.5
68.0
Non-OPECsupplyforecastsfor2024aresignificantlymorealignedthan2023estimates
2023-24Non-OPECSupply
supplyinmillionbarrelsperday
71.5
67.5
1Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q24
IEAOPECEIA…IEAprevious…OPECprevious…EIAprevious
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
10
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
Evolutionof2024AnnualNon-OPECSupplyGrowthForecasts
?EIAcontinuestoseelowernon-OPECsupplygrowththanIEAandOPECduetoaweakerUS,Canada,Norway,andKazakhstanoutlook.
?IEAhasrevisedupUSsupplygrowthby0.3mb/doverthepasttwomonths.
Non-OPECSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
OPEC
EIA
IEA
Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24
ForecastVintage
USSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
OPEC
EIA
IEA
Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24
ForecastVintage
RussiaSupplyGrowth
Evolutionof2024Forecasts
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
I
EA
OPEC
EIA
Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23Jan-24
ForecastVintage
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
11
IEA
OPEC
EIA
EIAseestheweakestnon-OPECsupplygrowthlargelyduetoalowerUS,Canada,Norway,andKazakhstanforecast
2024SupplyGrowthForecastsbyRegion
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
Rangein2024SupplyGrowthForecasts
0.5
0.4
0.3
TotalNon-OPEC
TotalOECD
0.10.10.1
0.1
US
Norway
Brazil
Russia
Canada
0.1
0.10.10.1
0.1
0.0
TotalNon-OECD
Kazakhstan
OPECNGLs
OtherOECD
OtherNon-OECD
China
millionbarrelsperday
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
12
OPECseesamuchhigher“callonOPEC”vs.IEAandEIAduetoamorerobustdemandoutlook
2024CallonOPECandRecentOPECProductionLevels
millionbarrelsperday
29.5
29.0
28.5
28.0
27.5
27.0
26.5
26.0
25.5
25.0
1Q24
IEA
2Q243Q244Q242024Avg
OPECEIADecember2023OPECproduction
?The“callonOPECcrude”isacalculationandnota
forecastofactualOPECproduction.
?The“callonOPEC”
estimateswhatOPECwouldneedtoproducetobalanceglobalsupplyanddemand.
?Itisestimatedbysubtractingaforecastfornon-OPEC
productionandOPECNGLsfromglobaldemand.
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
13
2025OutlookComparison
14
OPECcontinuestoseeconsistentlyhigherdemandlevelsthroughnextyear,ending2025at107mb/d
2023-25GlobalDemand
demandinmillionbarrelsperday
108
107
106
105
104
103
102
101
100
99
1Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q25
OPECEIA
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
15
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
China,India,MiddleEast,Africa,andothernon-OECDareexpectedtodrivedemandgrowthnextyear
2025DemandGrowthForecastsbyRegion
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
OPEC
EIA
Source:IEF,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
Rangein2025DemandGrowth
Forecasts
GlobalTotalNon-OECDOtherNon-OECD
TotalOECD
China MiddleEastOECDAmericasOECDEurope
India
Russia
OECDAsia
Africa
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
millionbarrelsperday
16
Non-OPECsupplyforecastsfor2025aresurprisinglymorealignedthan2023historicestimates
2023-25Non-OPECSupply
supplyinmillionbarrelsperday
73
72
71
70
69
68
67
66
1Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q252Q253Q254Q25
OPECEIA
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
17
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00
-0.20
TheUSaccountsfor>40%of2025non-OPECsupplygrowthforecasts
2025SupplyGrowthForecastsbyRegion
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
OPEC
EIA
Rangein2025SupplyGrowth
Forecasts
TotalNon-OPEC
TotalOECD
US OPECNGLs OtherOECDOtherNon-OECD
Brazil
Russia
Norway
KazakhstanTotalNon-OECD
Canada
China
0.30.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
millionbarrelsperday
Source:IEF,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
18
OPECseesamuchhigher“callonOPEC”vs.EIAduetoamorerobustdemandoutlookandatighterbaseline
2025CallonOPECandRecentOPECProductionLevels
millionbarrelsperday
30.029.529.028.528.027.527.026.526.025.525.0
1Q252Q253Q254Q252025Avg
OPECEIADecember2023OPECproduction
?The“callonOPECcrude”isacalculationandnota
forecastofactualOPECproduction.
?The“callonOPEC”
estimateswhatOPECwouldneedtoproducetobalanceglobalsupplyanddemand.
?Itisestimatedbysubtractingaforecastfornon-OPEC
productionandOPECNGLsfromglobaldemand.
Source:IEF,EIASTEO,OPECMOMR
19
Appendix
20
2023OutlookComparison
21
Summaryof2023BalancesandRevisions
?Allthreeforecastersrevisedup4Q23non-OPECsupplysignificantlyonstrongerUS,Brazil,andRussiansupply.
?Annualdemandgrowthestimatesstilldivergeby0.6mb/dwithOPECseeingthestrongestgrowthandEIAtheweakest.
?Theestimateoftheannualstockchangedivergesby1.3mb/d.1Q23estimatesarethemostaligned,butstilldifferby0.9mb/d.
2023BalanceSummary
UpdatedForecast
RevisionstoLastMonth'sForecast
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
20232023Y/Y
1Q23
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
2023
2023Y/Y
IEA
100.2
101.8
102.9
102.0
101.7
2.3
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0
GlobalDemand
OPEC
101.3
101.8
102.2
103.2
102.1
2.5
-0.3
0.3
0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0
EIA
100.0
100.9
101.5
101.8
101.1
1.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.1
IEA
45.4
45.7
46.0
45.9
45.7
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
OECDDemand
OPEC
45.4
45.7
46.0
46.0
45.8
0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.0
EIA
45.3
45.7
46.2
46.5
45.9
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.0
IEA
54.9
56.1
56.8
56.1
56.0
2.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
Non-OECDDemand
OPEC
55.9
56.1
56.2
57.2
56.3
2.4
-0.2
0.3
0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.0
EIA
54.7
55.2
55.3
55.3
55.1
1.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
IEA
73.5
74.0
75.1
75.5
74.5
2.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.1
0.2
Non-OPECSupply*andOPECNGLs
OPEC
74.2
74.2
74.9
74.6
74.5
2.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.3
0.3
0.3
EIA
73.7
74.3
75.4
75.9
74.8
2.4
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1
IEA
28.3
27.8
26.9
27.0
27.5
-0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
OPECCrude**
OPEC
27.8
27.2
26.4
26.7
27.0
-0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
EIA
27.4
27.2
26.4
26.6
26.9
-0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
IEA
26.7
27.8
27.8
26.5
27.2
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
-0.8
-0.2
-0.2
CallonOPEC
OPEC
27.1
27.6
27.4
28.6
27.6
0.3
-0.3
0.3
0.1
-1.4
-0.3
-0.3
EIA
26.3
26.6
26.2
25.9
26.2
-0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
GlobalStockChangeand
IEA
1.6
0.0
-0.9
0.6
0.3
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
Miscellaneousto
OPEC
0.7
-0.4
-0.9
-1.9
-0.6
0.2
-0.3
-0.1
Balance**
EIA
1.1
0.6
0.2
0.7
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
*Includesbiofuelsandprocessinggains
**OnlyEIApublishesaforecastofOPECcrudeproductionandglobalstockchange
Source:IEF,IEAOMR,OPECMOMR,EIASTEO
22
2.752.502.252.001.751.501.251.000.750.500.250.00
-0.25
ChinaTotalNon-OECD
Global
MiddleEast TotalOECDOtherNon-OECDOECDAmericas
Africa
RussiaOECDEurope
India
OECDAsia
0.9
Chinadrivesthelargestdemandgrowthforecast
divergencewithIEAseeing1mb/dhighergrowthvs.EIA
Region
2023DemandGrowthForecastsby
y/ygrowthinmillionbarrelsperday
IE
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